Pretty historically significant considering it was designed to be a 'Protestant State for a Protestant people'.
There is still only 29% who consider themselves Irish only though.
I chose 'Irish only' as I have always thought Northern Irish is a senseless term. I have always associated a Northern Irish identify with unionism and I am not from that community. I will always consider myself Irish simply because of my ancestry.
I am pleased that there is a slight Catholic majority as unionists are a very arrogant smug people, it is what they deserve. They decorate 60% Catholic towns with orange arches the whole summer. In fact I saw a flag with UVF written on it in the middle of a town recently, they don't even hide it.
It won't change anything politically though as too much has happened since partition, I don't think there will ever be a unified island.
No problem. Their GDP per capita in 1990 was 20k $
Ours today is 99k $
Even if you wanted to nitpick and say that GDP isn't a reasonable metric here because of FDI, - our GNP per capita is 74k $
Further, - the East Germans were far far poorer in comparison to their West counterparts than NI residents are compared to us.
Germany as a whole doesn't have great natural resources. Actually the east has more than the west and was far richer before WW2.
Whether it has reached you or not, this is a very rich and prosperous country that we live in today with all the problems of same.
If you read the thread, others have shown that the stipend to NI from England is in a large part giving them money for them to give it back to be spent on stuff that isn't in NI. Add to that the pension cost and there's about 2/3 of the money they are given.
It's basic economics and basic maths.
Every serious economic study of reunification costs has come to the same conclusions.
Oh Mohammed will probably be thinking on a much grander scale than a United Ireland.
Think more ISIS type European caliphate.
Could you please explain how one of the most industrialised countries in the world in the late 1980s, the powerhouse of Europe, with it's own natural resources, massive multinationals and massive internal market was poorer than Ireland of today.
This would be Ireland wholly dependent on foreign direct investment, which still has massive debts and no natural resources to speak of.
I am just intrigued.
Or maybe you are thinking of a war ravaged Germany in the late 1940s?
The key part in your above post is 19.8% said 'Northern Irish Only'. I expect this percentage to grow in the coming years. As new generations grow up without the idealogical baggage of attachment to Britain or the ROI. I hope I am correct, because it will be a building block for a more normally run state.
People said that 10 years ago also.
But the "Northern Irish only" group has actually declined.
Have to agree with you, there is a shortage of GPs in many areas now, a wait time of a week is normal, unless really urgent.
Keep pumping those kids out folks.
I read somewhere that the Protestant population tends to emigrate more then the Catholic. A lot will go to university in cities such as London, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle etc and won't come back whereas the Catholic students are less likely to stay.
Then factor in southerners settling in the north.
Anyway the trend is clear. The next census it will continue the shift.
Never heard of such things with gps, I can get an appointment whenever always have. In NI you're talking a wait of weeks, mostly there's no point in going to gp so people just present themselves at a and e
NHS and the file are tough ones.
Civil servants would be a slow integration. Probably a lot of retirees not replaced over time.
Police would remain as now. A separate entity in a unified country just like NI and the UK for a very long time at least.
The capital will be Dublin no question. Biggest city and internationally recognized capital for the average person. Stormont would probably keep a devolved government of sorts though at least for the foreseeable.
"Even compare GP care, Republic you can call and be seen same day or next day for about €60. "
Which obviously proves you haven't a clue about what passes for normal in GP practices down here. Even a few years ago, you'd wait 2-3 days for a GP appointment. In recent months, that takes 2-3 weeks. Yes 2-3 weeks to see a GP. Assuming you're on their books.
It is more symbolic than anything else, more identify as from a catholic background than from a protestant background.
It is hard to interpret things, what passport do you hold, I have GAA playing friends and relatives that have both Irish and UK passports, because it was easier for them when travelling for some visas etc. I know die-hard Unionists, who travel on Irish passports, consider themselves Irish but also British.
Exactly, many posters on here no doubt will gleefully claim the rise of the Catholic majority = unification soon/likely.
But that is a false narrative in order to shoehorn in an agenda. The reality is religion no longer plays a massive part in a persons identity, as it once did. In NI or the ROI.
So having more Catholics than Protestants is really an irrelevance to whether there will be unification. The key part in your above post is 19.8% said 'Northern Irish Only'. I expect this percentage to grow in the coming years. As new generations grow up without the idealogical baggage of attachment to Britain or the ROI. I hope I am correct, because it will be a building block for a more normally run state.
If the Alliance/SDLP make ground instead of the more divisive parties this could happen. As the SF slogan 'down south' goes. 'Time for a change' 'The party for Change'. But that is flipped on its head in NI, decades of rule, with little change.
But, in my opinion it is the people who view themselves as 'NI only' who will be fundamental to the future of NI and getting real change. Less political football symbolism, less ideologues on both sides, and concrete practical governance. A time when 'Catholic or Protestant' will be a complete anachronism, a poll from a bygone age.
Its not that difficult to figure how Scottish independence becomes conflated with Irish unity.
If Scotland were to vote for independence in the near future (big "if" I know) then it would make people look at the situation in NI in a different light.
How viable would the whole union be with Scotland gone ?
There'll likely be a referendum before the next census and it will likely be decided by the middle ground and the sectarian headcount.
Unionism still has a 1 seat lead in stormont, the age profile of unionist voters means that within 6 years that margin will likely be gone. Westminster will be keen to chuck the place after all the troubles they've had with NI unionism. So sos will probably call the ref when the number of nationalist mlas is higher than unionist ones. I would predict a marginal win for nationalism and the likely outcome, defined by citizens assembly, will likely include some degree of autonomy for stormont with more council area autonomy on things like language and culture etc. The UK may offer residents of the region British passports. The timeline would also depend on what happens in Scotland. Anecdotally I've seen on social media some of the hardcore unionist people are muttering about moving to the 'mainland' out of sheer butthurt. I think they might be a bit shocked at how foreign they find themselves, England and Scotland aren't as they were 1700 and they don't march, burn things or denigrate other ethnicities anymore.
I find it interesting the number of people commenting on the NHS as if it were a superior system than the HSE. That is mostly pro British propaganda. The reality is life expectancy in NI is 2 years less than in the Republic, largely because of a health system that promotes preventative action and relatively speedy interventions.
NI is all waiting lists, you'll probably die on one of their waiting lists, even with relatively minor health issues, and there are few private options.
Even compare GP care, Republic you can call and be seen same day or next day for about €60. You can go to a rapid injury clinic and be x rayed, medicated, diagnosed etc. Inside of an hour for €100 or free on your insurance. That level of care just doesn't exist in NI. You'd be a fool to want that type of system. What the south has is a lot better in terms of medical outcomes and cost (yes the NHS costs a lot of money).
In any case, I don't see why it really matters? How often do you see a doctor, every year or 2? What matters is the Republic has near double the average wage and a higher standard of living by every measure and you can expect to secure good employment in almost any sector. The Republic's prosperity exists largely because we rule ourselves. Being ruled by the English has been devastating for the likes of Wales and NI, which was once the wealthiest part of Ireland, and now has an economy about a tenth the size of the Republic.
I genuinely can't tell if you are joking or not....
But unionists politicians waste an insane amount of resources and taxpayers money whether in Westminster or in Stormont. They also love a quango despite some stating the opposite. Even the most cursory glance will show you that.
SF are all about promoting division. They are most successful in a divided society.
The best part of a united Ireland would be integrating the Unionists into the Republic. I like the idea of their no-nonsense attitude slapping some sense into the Dail and cutting the amount of wasted resources in the quango industry.
It could only be a positive thing for taxpayers to have them challenging the way things are done.
I don't even think a referendum in the Republic would be likely to pass.
When the words 'Unification Tax' are first mentioned, support will melt away.
The Irish electorate have consistently demonstrated they are unwilling to pay for anything.
the UI argument cant happen yet as the idea itself needs to be discussed nationally. too many have the overly simplistic idea its one region taking over another when in reality its a complete rebuild of everything thats required
the so-called negative consequences are only figments of the imagination of those veramently against a UI cause SF support it.
lets have a look at the often named ones.
subvention.
the costs of northern ireland currently are in the majority, the subventing of northern ireland's contributions to britain's institutions, with those gone in a UI the cost of subvention falls hugely meaning its barely a blip in terms of costs, no different to the subventing of other regions. a bit of catching up to do for NI but within a UI foreign investment is a certainty.
the loyalists will go mad.
well, some of them might, but it would be for nothing and they wouldn't have the same supports in place that they did during the troubles, so rioting which is easily managed by the police is about all they can do. them trying to plant bombs won't be tolerated by the majority of unionists now.
so ultimately, there is now no argument against a UI, and realistically it is coming soon as brexit destroys the UK.
i don't think i will, to be honest.
As a (very contented) immigrant to Ireland from Scotland I'm a bit confused as to how Scottish independence has become conflated with Irish unity. The two things are totally separate.
The first is less likely by the day as Scots finally take on board the financial implications of loss of UK subsidies and separation from their major market by a hard border. Then there is the likelihood of endless waiting for EU membership (which NOT everyone in the SNP actually wants anyway) while Spain and France veto entry so as not to encourage the Basque and Catalan independence ambitions.
On the other hand (whisper it, and no sniggering at the back), England actually does not care a fig about the loyalists in Northern Ireland. As soon as there is a consensus in Ireland and decent chance of offloading Northern Ireland with minimal bloodshed and loss of face, it's done.
I doubt it will change very much compared to the rest of Ireland and to GB.
Anyway, once Muhammed votes for reunification he can do what he likes
I agree with you but sadly there is little or no evidence that 'present unionists' are being brought along or wooed by those who aspire to a UI. If anything the attitude is 'let them like it or lump it' and 'the boot is on the other foot now' etc
SF in particular has built a profile by emphasising their nationalism and how different they are from their unionist neighbours. Instead of building bridges and bringing people along, they constantly seek out points of difference. An example - the south got independence in 1922 and a constitution as a Republic in 1937. In this constitution the Irish language was defined as the first language in an aspirational way. It took a further 66 years for the nationalistic language lobby to get this primacy enforced across public administration with the Official Languages Act 2003, 81 years after independence.
Now ask what do the nationalistic language lobby want to do up north. They want an equivalent type language act without even waiting for constitutional change, to further drive division between the communities. Hopeless lot altogether.
I wonder how long it will take Muhammed to be the most popular baby name in Belfast.
I think it's a lot closer than that, especially , if UK economy continues to decline as expected post Brexit and 100% certain to be quicker if Scotland votes independent.
Why do people always say there will be violence?
It's not going to work if this is forced on people like partition was.
It will have to be negotiated and agreed and present unionists will have to be brought along, which is a trend that could happen especially as things change in UK with current climate there of new monarch, Brexit and loss of influence on world stage, and the status of Scotland.
If unionists are convinced that they would have more say and influence in a United Ireland than they do now then they would support a United Ireland and then only a small extreme group, equivalent to current day IRA splinter groups would resist it.
That's why I think it's too early for a border poll now, as unionists are not there yet but I think Sinn Fein are thinking that way too given the conciliatory tone they are currently taking and they need to get Michelle O'Neill in as First Minister to show unionists how diplomatic she can be which I think is one of the main reasons the DUP don't want to go back to Stormont as they're afraid of that but use the protocol as a smokescreen.
This. Imagine Israel becoming mostly Palestinian.
Botching up the objective of reunification by making poorly thought out decisions or getting their timing spectacularly wrong, is potentially every bit as dangerous for them.
I'm not seeing this is a major issue: inevitable demographic shift as evidenced by censuses, opinion polls etc. means the question can never be off the table again until unity is achieved. A border poll in the late 2020s that gets a 45% yes or slightly less means there is a strong case for another one ten years later, when there would be a realistic but still outside chance of it actually passing.
They don't really have a choice.
Quite a large % of people only vote for them because they are seen as the most hungry for unification... if they lost this reputation because they didn't have the b*lls to call for a border poll, then they would lose much of their base quite rapidly. But they could also easily get a reputation for failure to achieve their objectives, and all political parties are subject to the consequences of this.
As I have said a border poll that goes down narrowly would not be a bad thing from SF's POV. I highly doubt their leadership believes one this decade has a genuine chance of passing and yet they are pressing very hard for one.
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e68aa2b0e039b12ade8384a2f42841c6.svg)
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://wc.vanillicon.com/v2/c9236bc67b608c3603b1ed089c896282.svg)
