Northern Ireland is now Catholic Majority

murpho999

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119669557#Comment_119669557

I mentioned the Utopia asI read plenty of posts here and on other platforms that promote the idea that the population in Northern Ireland receive better social protections and benefits than in Ireland.

It's easy to pick obvious outliers like NHS and free GPs but why ignore how the social welfare system is way ahead of the UK?

Also picking out headliners like schoolbooks which is not that big but ignore other facts such as social welfare payments being much higher in Northern Ireland than in the North.

You mention taxation, but taxation is much more progressive and fair, especially since last Friday in Ireland than in the UK

Also, this taxation is redistributed by the taxation and social protection system in much fairer way resulting in lower levels of poverty in Ireland than in the UK.

I don't understand why people ignore these?

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119669815#Comment_119669815

You've literally posted, 'those who are Northern Irish have a place, with borders, they won't want that to change'. In what world is that not telling us what Northern Irish people think? It is the grand sweeping statements as if we're all hive mind that are particularly irritating, Blanch.

'Northern Irish' people have a wide range of views, some favour Unification, some strongly oppose it, some have no strong feelings on it and will vote based purely on economics. You demonstrate time and time again that you have zero actual knowledge of NI beyond what you selectively read in Slugger O'Toole.

As usual, you note a few weak correlations and then try and smash them into accordance with your own preconceived ideas. There is substantially more evidence of support for Unification in NI than you've ever presented in support of your previous Independent NI idea, or your latest love-in with a federal solution. For someone crowing for evidence, you're consistently very short on it yourself.

The last time I asked you for evidence of any substantial ground level support for NI Independence or a Federal solution, you provided me with an irrelevant opinion piece confirming that some people in NI have Northern Irish identities.

A border poll would fail tomorrow, no one is disputing this. Any poll that happens will be won on the hearts and minds of those in the middle ground, no one disputes this either. If those favouring Unification wish for it to pass, then the concerns of others outside the committed Republican circles should be taken into consideration, maybe a handful of idiots dispute this. It's the twenty steps of weak extrapolation that you blindly run off with after this that offends.

RavenBea17b

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119666403#Comment_119666403

The EU wasn't backing the Republic, because it is the Republic. It was because it is the EU border, so acting on behalf of the EU.

Ireland is a net contributor, so in theory has more than sufficient funds. If the government can refuse a €13 billion plus interest fine from Apple, after a two year investigation into alleged unpaid tax, then go to court again over it, with the EU to refuse, and with central EU funds already having a larger demand from other countries, it will be tougher to claim help....

Different times I know, but when West and Germany re-unified, West Germany as was, did not utilise funds, from the pre-curser to the modern EU, as there would be apart from anything else, be strings attached to it, it too was a net contributor, it's economy at the time being one if not he largest . East Germany needed heavy investment, in many differing ways from, infrastructure alone, such as roads, electrical systems, water, buildings, to name a few. Not so, with Northern Ireland.

As I have said, unification will happen, but the political changes on the island will impact the Republic, as much as they will in the North - both for the positive and the negative.

murpho999

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119669965#Comment_119669965

It still listened to Ireland and very much behind it's opinion was very much against setting up a hard border like it has with other EU borders so I don't think it treated it like a normal case.

Also, you point about the Apple tax is completely irrelevant. The truth was that Ireland could not afford to collect that tax due to the long term implications for the economy and it was proven correct as it has won its case.

As I said , if we do ever get to the stage of Northern Ireland joining Ireland than that will be a large geopolitical event with a few years of preparation and negotiation and I'm sure the EU will be involved and there will be economic packages discussed as it's in the EU's long term interest to do so.

RavenBea17b

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119670008#Comment_119670008

Did I say the EU hadn't listened to the Ireland ??? I stated that the EU spoke on behalf of the EU - which it did, it being the EU border, so i takes into consideration other EU members points. This Brexistshite has caused more issues and opportunities (in a roundabout way).

I raised the Apple tax situation to point out that Ireland as a net contributor may have a tougher time, if asking for help for funds - so NOT irrelevant, but pertinent to the situation should the case be that financial assistance be asked for/required. AND I had been commenting on other posts about possible EU aid. Having lived in the North and the South, I am more than well aware of the pro's and cons of unification.

We agree that long-term, the geopolitical changes for the island of Ireland will be huge if unification occurs. Sinn Fein will certainly rock the boat for the FF & FG, plus green and independents. Interesting times ahead whatever happens.

letsseehere14

From what I can tell from whats been released, The vast majority of those saying they are Northern Irish Only under the National Identity section are from the Catholic background community.

I recon about 74% of them are from the Catholic background.

I came to this conclusion by comparing the Religious Background section, the National Identity section and the local election results from the 2019 council elections. Now thats 3 years ago. What I can see is the following;

The Irish Only, Irish and Northern Irish and 74% of the Northern Irish Only population amounts to 46% of the Population.

The identities that mention British plus the 26% of the remaining Northern Irish only population amounts to 47% of the Population.

Other national identities making up the rest.

In the 2019 Local Elections Unionists won about 44.6% of the vote and Nationalists won 41.9% of the vote (3 years ago).

In the 2022 Stormont Election Nationalist won 41.03% of the vote, Unionists won 43.48% of the vote, the remainder mostly going to Alliance or Greens.

The unionist population is older and more likely to vote (as over 65s are much more likely to vote). The nationalist population is younger, and less likely/too young to vote. Also the Alliance and Green split from Ards and East Belfast mostly being split 50/50 across the two communities.

This idea that because the Irish only % sits at 29% means a UI is far away does not make sense as the Nationalist vote in each area requires a big % of the Northern Irish only National Identity to make sense. Whereas the Protestant/British/Unionist figures make sense with a much smaller % from the NI only section. I think most would agree that the number of Catholics voting unionist and proclaiming to be British is about the same as protestants voting Nationalist and proclaiming to be Irish only. Otherwise how can Nationalists get 41% of the vote with just 30 odd % of the population.

We can see in every area the Irish or Irish&NI populations growing by huge numbers, while the amount of British mentioned and NI population dropping by huge numbers in multiple districts. Ni only just about gaining a few 100 people over 10 years while the population as a whole rose by 92K. Irish only rising by 96K, more than the population of NI rose as a whole. In some districts Irish gaining over 20K, and All British mentions and NI only losing over 23K (this was Belfast). These are seismic numbers.

In 10 years, the Irish only and Irish&NI pop will be up more, probably around the 34% mark, possibly higher if the trend is more exponential than linear. The NI only will still sit around 20% but probably with 75 to 80% of them coming from a Catholic background and most voting nationalist. Nationalist vote will be about 42%, Unionist 40% and Alliance/Greens at 18%. More Nationalist MPs than unionist, more Nationalist MLAs than Unionist. In that scenario, where much of the Alliance vote is still split evenly, with East Belfast Catholics voting strategically for Alliance and progressive Ards Protestant/none still rejecting Unionism, then a serious conversation will have to be had on reunification.

The NHS in NI is no better than the HSE, both poor. We have a better infrastructure than NI, better education, better GDP and quality of life, longer life, easier Travel, access to the EU markets, multi nationals pouring out of Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway. An argument can be put forward to the soft Unionists about how theirs and their childrens and grand childrens lives can be so much better in a UI. With a good argument put forward, positive and forward thinking, a Yes vote could be tipping that 50% mark. Bring some of them down to Galway or Limerick from Bangor or Lisburn and show them the jobs available and facilities in these small cities and theyd want a piece of that. The option to study in close to home and not England, to get a great job in Ireland not Britain and it would soften them even more.

This also doesnt take into account what may happen in Scotland and what the next 10 years holds for the UK economy. I think it is time to start planning now for a early to mid 2030s vote.

Demographic show the Unionist vote will decline, the middle gain and Nationalist rise, slower than the Irish population though. I would love to see the nationality break down by age group. I think those numbers would be stark for the PUL community. When the see their % in the 30s for the 0-14 age.group and the Catholic/Irish group heading towards 60%.

Zebra3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119666292#Comment_119666292

Yeah, Bryson is some clown.

He seems to think it’s 1910 or something. Expects a quick online rant to have Ulster Covenant Mark II on the way.

Few in the PUL community give a toss about him.

A poor man’s Ian Paisley.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119665105#Comment_119665105

Well it seems that the idea of a devolved NI in a united Ireland has now come on to the main stage.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2022/10/01/border-poll-should-aim-for-largest-majority-possible-not-50-plus-one-varadkar-says/

"He outlined a number of what he described as “models which can work” in a unitary state, which included that “Northern Ireland could continue with a devolved parliament, with cross-community power sharing, its own courts, education system, police and health service.”

Booing broke out among a section of the audience as he finished this sentence, adding that “North-South bodies and east-west co-operation would continue” and should be strengthened and deepened."

Of course he got booed, he was challenging the belligerent exclusionary nationalists. Interesting thoughts on the majority as well.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119697299#Comment_119697299

An "all inclusive unified Ireland" is the belligerent exclusionary nationalist's way of excluding unionists.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119697323#Comment_119697323

And continued partition is exclusionary partitionists' way of excluding those who support the GFA, and those who wish to see a genuinely United Ireland instead of a half assed continuation of the previous 100 years.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119666809#Comment_119666809

that's not really the reality at all.

most of the cost of northern ireland is the subsidizing of it's contributions to the british institutions, with that cost gone the cost is very low and would not require higher taxes over all since the people of northern ireland would now be contributing to the tax take here.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119667196#Comment_119667196

it barely exists as it is and it is illiminating itself all by itself.

even if it did grow again, it is still ultimately irish at the end of the day.

any and all identities fit within a UI as shown by all of the evidence.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119697323#Comment_119697323

in reality it isn't as belligerent exclusionary nationalists don't exist and unionists will automatically be included within a UI the same as everyone else.

you know this, so why do you keep stating factual inaccuracies?

your sectarian statelet in all possible forms is on the way to being killed off, it will be a full on UI.

buried

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119667196#Comment_119667196

Welcome to globalism blanch. Modern Fine Gael have zero issues with the programme for it, so what's your problem?

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119697323#Comment_119697323

If there is a UI then unionists wont live within the union. They are going to have to get over it just like currently nationalist in the north have to except they live within the UK. Once all of ireland is out of the union there will be no need for NI. The whole point of NI was to have a gerrymandered part of Ireland within the UK. It does not need to exist after a UI as none of ireland will be in the UK. It has a toxic history has to be the first thing that goes in a UI. Set up a new re branded devolved Ireland if you genuinely want a devolved system and not just an excuse to keep the social disaster of NI going.

PTH2009

You'd be scared 'the gun' will come back into proceedings when/if a United Ireland happens/close to happening

Imagine having the worry of going somewhere not knowing will you be blown to Kingdom come because in reverse a minority are picking violence

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119697588#Comment_119697588

Irish language speakers barely exist. Is a Welsh or Scottish person English ? or vise versa ? Is Europe just one big country ? I really cant understand how people cannot get into their heads there are 2 countries on the island of Ireland. Is Ukraine still part of russia ? will we recreate czechoslovakia

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698239#Comment_119698239

No welsh and scotish people are not English. But people from the north of wales are welsh and people from the east of Scotland are scotish. Europe is a continent not a country. Ireland is partioned between the countries of the ROI and UK but there still one irish nation of people that comes from all of Ireland. Is that hard to understand???

Strumms

What extra cost would the government be under to take on and run the six counties ? I’m trying to find that information now… but not much success… all the public services from policing, healthcare, social welfare, even public transport which is state owned and run by and under the umbrella of Translink…

im reading that usually there is a deficit of around 10 billion for the running of Northern Ireland…which is more than one third of Northern Ireland's annual fiscal budget currently.

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698273#Comment_119698273

So is Ukraine part of russia then ? There has never been an Irish nation care to share when that happened ?

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698326#Comment_119698326

No Ukraine is not part of russia.

You dont know the meaning of a nation. There is an irish nation of people. I am part of it like most people from Ireland.

There is a difference between the terms nation, state, and country, even though the words are often used interchangeably. Country and State are synonymous terms that both apply to self-governing political entities. A nation, however, is a group of people who share the same culture but do not have sovereignty.

Packrat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698308#Comment_119698308

That's been dealt with multiple times in the thread already.

Cost to ROI would be <5bn annually initially dropping away gradually to being cash positive within a decade or two.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698417#Comment_119698417

I'm very much in favour of Unification, but the study that showed it as cash positive was very questionable.

Serious economic reform will be needed to make NI cash positive, it won't just be a case of, 'right turf British rule out and wait a few years'.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698308#Comment_119698308

That is only the start.

First question is do you harmonise social welfare upwards or downwards i.e. if the rate is currently lower in the North, do we increase it to match the South, or do we cut the rate in the South, and vice versa.

Ditto with taxation. Implementing our corporate tax rates in the North will reduce the current revenue from corporation tax in the North. Do we keep their system of household charges and rates which are higher than LPT or do we increase LPT?

Only way of managing all of that is some form of federal solution.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698417#Comment_119698417

Complete underestimation.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698273#Comment_119698273

This is where you are missing the point.

This island is also home to a Northern Irish nation and another group who are part of the British nation.

It is not an island with a single nationality.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119697588#Comment_119697588

I don't think any nationalist can ignore the census results which now clearly show three minorities in Northern Ireland.

Packrat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698648#Comment_119698648

No interest in engaging with you on this or any subject.

Reasonable people get responses and discussion.

Ideologues and bad-faith actors I don't waste my time on.

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698693#Comment_119698693

Northern irish is not a nation tho your ideology may wish it was. It is a subset of the irish and British nations. Give me what culture is unique to the 6 counties that could make it considered a nation? If someone drew a line around cork and waterford and called it southen Ireland you would not create a Southern irish nation of people overnight.

Of course there is hundreds of different nations living in Ireland. What is your piont?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699018#Comment_119699018

Tell that to the hundreds of thousands who filled out the census form and declared themselves Northern Irish.

The Northern Irish nation or nationality may not have existed 100 years ago, but it does now, and the diehard belligerent exclusionary nationalists need to adjust to that fact.

It wasn't created overnight, but it evolved over 100 years.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698873#Comment_119698873

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698641#Comment_119698641

Maybe you could answer the question in my previous post about social welfare harmonisation.

We could produce some answers to the costs then, depending on whether you favour upward harmonisation.

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699080#Comment_119699080

What is this nations unique culture? Burning flags? Sectarianism? Your ideology wants it to be a nation in an attempt to keep partition going. But as soon as that jurisdiction goes the NI identity will soon go after. Why because it is not a nation of people.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699119#Comment_119699119

What is a nation of people? Who are you to tell anyone who they can identify as?

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699178#Comment_119699178

You obviously dont no the meaning of the word hence why you think NI is a nation. Perhaps look it up. Anyone can identify as they want. They can identify as a brick if they want. Does not mean a bricks are a nation of people.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119698706#Comment_119698706

2 minorities.

northern irish is irish, it's same as an individual identifying themselves as being from a county such as a dubliner.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699621#Comment_119699621

Look, I get it that nationalist thinking is stuck in a 1920s worldview, but the reality is that now, in this time, there are three significant minorities in Northern Ireland.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699954#Comment_119699954

There is no concept of a United Ireland, never has been a united Ireland, probably never will be, and not a single poster on here or person in the wider world has ever been able to put forward a coherent explanation of the concept of a United Ireland.

I share the wish of the Constitution to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, but also recognise that this aspiration does not require constitutional change in Northern Ireland, neither does it require unity.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119699337#Comment_119699337

I understand nation as much as anyone. Perhaps you would put forward your version of it, as you don't seem to grasp the complicated nuances of national identity in the 21st century.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700250#Comment_119700250

It never fails to amaze me how exclusionary nationalists can support minority rights in Northern Ireland with power-sharing Assemblies but pivot the day after a border poll to an exclusionary 50% plus one viewpoint that overrides everything.

There is nothing inherently correct about a united Ireland that improves democratic rights any more than the current situation.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700270#Comment_119700270

The wisdom of someone who never spent a minute living in NI laid bare once more, Blanch.

I'd say the repeated collapses of Stormont and the lack of political representation inherent in a devolved government not bothering to do their jobs gives us a fairly low bar to jump when it comes to improving democratic rights over the current situation.

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700161#Comment_119700161

I dont have a subjective version of it. I quoted what the factual definition of it already a few posts ago .

Considering you think NI as a nation of people what is their unique culture to make them one?

"There is a difference between the terms nation, state, and country, even though the words are often used interchangeably. Country and State are synonymous terms that both apply to self-governing political entities. A nation, however, is a group of people who share the same culture but do not have sovereignty."

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700366#Comment_119700366

I would put it the other way. There isn't a single bit of evidence that a united Ireland would improve democratic rights for anyone.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700381#Comment_119700381

You only have to spend time in Northern Ireland to realise that there has been cultural divergence from the South over the last 100 years.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700377#Comment_119700377

That Stormont, working as badly as it does, is an additional democratic institution to the Houses of Parliament in Westminister, and the abolition of Stormont in a united Ireland is therefore a step back in the number of democratic institutions.

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700381#Comment_119700381

Despite my very differing outlook to Blanch, on the NI nationhood question I'd be more aligned with his thinking than yours, which I think takes a very black and white view of Nationhood.

I'd consider myself Northern Irish and Irish, I recognise that there are aspects of NI culture that, while initially seeded from just a mixture of British (particularly Scottish) and Irish cultures has over 100 years come to form an amalgamation that is distinct from both, and not all of it is just rioting, petrol bombs and flegs.

There are certainly areas where I would have more in common with an NI Unionist than an average fella from Cork, or that said NI Unionist would have more in common with me than an average fella from Glasgow.

kazamo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700417#Comment_119700417

Oh I don’t know about that.

Keeping a separate Parliament doesn’t really sound like reunification to me.

if we do this, we go all in, Jeffrey Donaldson in the same chamber as the Healy Rae’s.

Jeff wouldn’t stand a chance 😂 😂

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700417#Comment_119700417

Ah yes, the Houses of Parliament.....where one half of NI has zero representation and where FPTP voting means governments can routinely command huge seat majorities with a ridiculously low number of votes, where a huge number of constituencies are safe seats that essentially make the vote of a huge number of constituents worthless, where the voting decisions of one country out of a four part Union count for more than the other three put together? Where the parties who have been at the helm don't even bother to try get votes in NI because it is so insignificant?

Aye Blanch, the bar is still low enough to step over.

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119700413#Comment_119700413

Still not answered the question. What is this nations unique culture?

ittakestwo

Is the culture specific to NI or is it the north of Ireland. You are from a border county? In any cultural rather than political view do you think a person from lets say Derry is going to have a similar culture with a person from Antrim but not Donegal?

ittakestwo

Sorry above post was ment for Fionn