Northern Ireland is now Catholic Majority

John Doe1

Pretty historically significant considering it was designed to be a 'Protestant State for a Protestant people'.

There is still only 29% who consider themselves Irish only though.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058264448/northern-ireland-is-now-catholic-majority

That 29% is up 4% though in 10 years and the British only is down about 9%

The gap between those calling themselves "British only" and those calling themselves "Irish only" was 15% 10 years ago, now it less than 3%.

They are the important figures

ELM327

Delighted. This one's for the cause. Our revenge will be the laughter of our children. Which will outnumber yours!

TheValeyard

Looks like Northern Ireland is definitely on the trajectory for Unification in the far future.

John Doe1

"A bitter debate arose in the Parliament of Northern Ireland on 24 April 1934 on the rights of the minority (the minority in Northern Ireland being Nationalist supporters, who were mostly Catholic), itemising how these had generally deteriorated since 1921. Craig denied the assertions at length, ending with:

Since we took up office we have tried to be absolutely fair towards all the citizens of Northern Ireland. Actually, on an Orange platform, I, myself, laid down the principle, to which I still adhere, that I was Prime Minister not of one section of the community but of all, and that as far as I possibly could I was going to see that fair play was meted out to all classes and creeds without any favour whatever on my part.

George Leeke of the Nationalist Party retorted: "What about your Protestant Parliament?"

Craig replied:

The hon. Member must remember that in the South they boasted of a Catholic State. They still boast of Southern Ireland being a Catholic State. All I boast of is that we are a Protestant Parliament and a Protestant State. It would be rather interesting for historians of the future to compare a Catholic State launched in the South with a Protestant State launched in the North and to see which gets on the better and prospers the more. It is most interesting for me at the moment to watch how they are progressing. I am doing my best always to top the bill and to be ahead of the South.[2]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Protestant_parliament_for_a_Protestant_people

Todays Maths question:

Is 45.7%

a) More than 50%

b) Less than 50%

c) Brits out!

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650920#Comment_119650920

Have you seen our birth rates? There won't be many Irish kids around to laugh in a generation

"Hurrah, we're dying off slightly slower thant the prods!"

gmisk

The unionist meltdown online is genuinely hilarious...wee Jamie bin lid Bryson has been tweeting constantly since 530am ha ha

elperello

The figures are interesting but the main issue has a long way to run.

In terms of national identity, 31.9% said they had a British-only identity, while 29.1% said Irish-only and 19.8% said Northern Irish-only.

Not looking good for unification,

The majority may be Catholic but the Majority do not want a United Ireland it would seem.

rob316

Ya but I'd imagine there is alot of Catholics who want to stay in the UK?

I still think it too early to be calling for a border poll, it will cause huge unrest and violence.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651045#Comment_119651045

With Irish and Northern Irish only a "federal" solution may not be awful far off. 48.9%. Would like to the see the breakdown of "British and Irish" and "British and Northern Irish" etc. But based on those numbers over 1/3rd of Catholics do not identify as Irish only. Which means they are not necessarily going to vote for a UI if a poll was held tomorrow. And this ties in with any opinion polls there have been in the recent past which have been tending towards a "yes, but not yet" outcome

Thelonious Monk

Was Ireland ever unified in the first place? Will be a mare for both sides, NHS gone for them and thousands of Gov workers unemployed for us.

kowloonkev

Would the citizens of the Republic of Ireland also be given the opportunity to vote on a unified Ireland? Or would it just be NI voting?

foxsake

they are fake Catholics .

no catholic could vote for SF but most of that shower do.

Leave them up north

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651045#Comment_119651045

You have to look at the tends.

10 years ago you had the number from a Catholic background at 45.1% but the number as "Irish only" was 25.26%.

Now it's 45.7% and 29.13% respectively.

So the trend is towards "Irish only"

Another way to look at it is the difference between 2011 and 2021 when you consider the likes of "British and Northern Irish" and "Irish and Northern Irish"

In 2011 the total of "British only" and "British and Northern Irish" was 46%

The total of "Irish only" and "Irish and Northern Irish" was 26%.

That's a 20% gap.

Now those numbers are 39% and 30% respectively.

That is closing the gap in half.

And in that time the "Northern Irish only" number has been static at about 20%.

The trends are only going one way.

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651045#Comment_119651045

But do you realise that gap was 15% 10 years ago. The trend will probably continue with "irish only" rising and "British only" falling because of age demographics. I dont think there will be a constitutional change tomorrow but looks likely there coukd be a referendum in about 10 years.

Also we have to pay attention on whats going on in Britain. Queen was very popular. Dont think Charles will be anything like as popular as her. Some said the queen was holding Scotland in the union. If Scotland go the union could all collapse leading to a UI. There is a rise in English and Scotish nationalism that can't be ignored.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651136#Comment_119651136

Yes the republic will vote also and there obviously must be a majority in both for it to be passed.

Podge_irl

Its plurality catholic, not majority. Also the manner in which they define these things leaves something to be desired and the correlation between religious and political affiliation appears weaker than in the past.

kowloonkev

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651146#Comment_119651146

That would be interesting. I presume the voting would be held on the same day in both jurisdictions? It would be embarrassing if we voted for a unified Ireland and they didn't, or vice versa. Polls could determine what way a lot of people vote. Although I suppose in the south it would be expected to be a landslide 'yes' to a unified Ireland.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651194#Comment_119651194

Yea I'd say the south would be a landslide, people would put the economic or social issues to one side and vote with their hearts.

Packrat

Knowing the general abilities if our politicians and those across the water, they'll somehow find a way to beat the demographic and cultural change and fivk it up.

10 years if planned correctly.

I don't expect them to do that.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651244#Comment_119651244

10 years is too short.

You need another 10 year census like in 2011 and 2021 to cement the trend.

You would expect that the numbers for 2031 to show an "Irish only" majority at that point.

After that becomes clear you can make plans for a border poll, which itself could take another decade.

Packrat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651285#Comment_119651285

Possibly, but if its left too long the vote in the south will decline too much.

The conversation about and education of the population about what any new state could look like should start now/soon.

You'll soon see the stupid "We can't afford them" level of commentary showing up on this thread. That's about the level of understanding of the actual issues that the general public currently have.

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651314#Comment_119651314

What will you do with the NHS ?

Will you bring up their dole to our levels ?

civil servants they get absorbed ?

Police absorbed ?

Where will the capital be.

I could go on this is an outsider looking in. People seem to just think vote and it's done. For example the civil servants are not kept how are you going to explain that to them sorry on the dole with you.

Dyr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651244#Comment_119651244

There would have to be cogent reason for voters in NI to vote for unification. I doubt many are going to look at the state of Ireland and say "yeah, I fancy that over all the free money from London"

jmayo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651314#Comment_119651314

Wondering how we can afford to take over a state where most workers work are state employees, where you will have a huge number of disgruntled citizens who have a propensity for turning to violence which will mean a huge increase in security spending is of course stupid.

We have those magic money trees to provide for everything. 🙄

blanch152

I don't know why people are so worried about a border poll.

Look at the hard numbers. It is now conclusive that a sectarian headcount does not match with a political viewpoint headcount. That is welcome from a societal viewpoint and represents genuine progress towards a better society in Northern Ireland.

The second hard number is that only 29.1% identify as Irish only. That is the number likely to vote for straight unity. A federal solution might attract more support, but would still be unlikely to get 50% plus 1.

All that means is that it will take at least another census, if not more, to determine that it is likely that a border poll will pass. So, despite all the sensationalist newspaper headlines, come back in ten years for another look at the numbers.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651314#Comment_119651314

You have those conversations after 2031 when the "Irish only" is in the majority, and it could take the bones of a decade to work out a plan that will ensure a unification outcome in both referendums

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651466#Comment_119651466

There needs to be a serious conversation had before then. Maybe a citizens assembly. Hammer out all of the details like what recommendations to happen with x and y. I really don't get the long finger on this If parties want it they should prepare and engage with the people. But I Wager I know why it's not been done. Reality is a lot different to a dream may put people off even more. At the moment it just looks like a Brexit vote. Yes or NO. And since boards decided that was a terrible Idea why should Ireland follow that example.

mazdamiatamx5

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650920#Comment_119650920

You're being ironic, right?