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Northern Ireland is now Catholic Majority

  • 22-09-2022 2:31pm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭John Doe1

    Pretty historically significant considering it was designed to be a 'Protestant State for a Protestant people'.

    There is still only 29% who consider themselves Irish only though.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,355 ✭✭✭✭elperello

    The figures are interesting but the main issue has a long way to run.

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  • Posts: 0 Yahir Shy Teacher

    With Irish and Northern Irish only a "federal" solution may not be awful far off. 48.9%. Would like to the see the breakdown of "British and Irish" and "British and Northern Irish" etc. But based on those numbers over 1/3rd of Catholics do not identify as Irish only. Which means they are not necessarily going to vote for a UI if a poll was held tomorrow. And this ties in with any opinion polls there have been in the recent past which have been tending towards a "yes, but not yet" outcome

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,751 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk

    Was Ireland ever unified in the first place? Will be a mare for both sides, NHS gone for them and thousands of Gov workers unemployed for us.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭kowloonkev

    Would the citizens of the Republic of Ireland also be given the opportunity to vote on a unified Ireland? Or would it just be NI voting?

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious

    You have to look at the tends.

    10 years ago you had the number from a Catholic background at 45.1% but the number as "Irish only" was 25.26%.

    Now it's 45.7% and 29.13% respectively.

    So the trend is towards "Irish only"

    Another way to look at it is the difference between 2011 and 2021 when you consider the likes of "British and Northern Irish" and "Irish and Northern Irish"

    In 2011 the total of "British only" and "British and Northern Irish" was 46%

    The total of "Irish only" and "Irish and Northern Irish" was 26%.

    That's a 20% gap.

    Now those numbers are 39% and 30% respectively.

    That is closing the gap in half.

    And in that time the "Northern Irish only" number has been static at about 20%.

    The trends are only going one way.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭ittakestwo

    But do you realise that gap was 15% 10 years ago. The trend will probably continue with "irish only" rising and "British only" falling because of age demographics. I dont think there will be a constitutional change tomorrow but looks likely there coukd be a referendum in about 10 years.

    Also we have to pay attention on whats going on in Britain. Queen was very popular. Dont think Charles will be anything like as popular as her. Some said the queen was holding Scotland in the union. If Scotland go the union could all collapse leading to a UI. There is a rise in English and Scotish nationalism that can't be ignored.

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious

    Yes the republic will vote also and there obviously must be a majority in both for it to be passed.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,807 ✭✭✭kowloonkev

    That would be interesting. I presume the voting would be held on the same day in both jurisdictions? It would be embarrassing if we voted for a unified Ireland and they didn't, or vice versa. Polls could determine what way a lot of people vote. Although I suppose in the south it would be expected to be a landslide 'yes' to a unified Ireland.

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious

    Yea I'd say the south would be a landslide, people would put the economic or social issues to one side and vote with their hearts.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 828 ✭✭✭Packrat

    Knowing the general abilities if our politicians and those across the water, they'll somehow find a way to beat the demographic and cultural change and fivk it up.

    10 years if planned correctly.

    I don't expect them to do that.

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious

    10 years is too short.

    You need another 10 year census like in 2011 and 2021 to cement the trend.

    You would expect that the numbers for 2031 to show an "Irish only" majority at that point.

    After that becomes clear you can make plans for a border poll, which itself could take another decade.

  • Registered Users Posts: 828 ✭✭✭Packrat

    Possibly, but if its left too long the vote in the south will decline too much.

    The conversation about and education of the population about what any new state could look like should start now/soon.

    You'll soon see the stupid "We can't afford them" level of commentary showing up on this thread. That's about the level of understanding of the actual issues that the general public currently have.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl

    What will you do with the NHS ?

    Will you bring up their dole to our levels ?

    civil servants they get absorbed ?

    Police absorbed ?

    Where will the capital be.

    I could go on this is an outsider looking in. People seem to just think vote and it's done. For example the civil servants are not kept how are you going to explain that to them sorry on the dole with you.

  • Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr

    There would have to be cogent reason for voters in NI to vote for unification. I doubt many are going to look at the state of Ireland and say "yeah, I fancy that over all the free money from London"

  • Registered Users Posts: 25,002 ✭✭✭✭blanch152

    I don't know why people are so worried about a border poll.

    Look at the hard numbers. It is now conclusive that a sectarian headcount does not match with a political viewpoint headcount. That is welcome from a societal viewpoint and represents genuine progress towards a better society in Northern Ireland.

    The second hard number is that only 29.1% identify as Irish only. That is the number likely to vote for straight unity. A federal solution might attract more support, but would still be unlikely to get 50% plus 1.

    All that means is that it will take at least another census, if not more, to determine that it is likely that a border poll will pass. So, despite all the sensationalist newspaper headlines, come back in ten years for another look at the numbers.

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,276 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious

    You have those conversations after 2031 when the "Irish only" is in the majority, and it could take the bones of a decade to work out a plan that will ensure a unification outcome in both referendums

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭xxxxxxl

    There needs to be a serious conversation had before then. Maybe a citizens assembly. Hammer out all of the details like what recommendations to happen with x and y. I really don't get the long finger on this If parties want it they should prepare and engage with the people. But I Wager I know why it's not been done. Reality is a lot different to a dream may put people off even more. At the moment it just looks like a Brexit vote. Yes or NO. And since boards decided that was a terrible Idea why should Ireland follow that example.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭mazdamiatamx5