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Fine Gael Demographic

[Deleted User]

Last time out I voted for Fine Gael however since then I have been having a think about things.

I am in my 30s, university educated and have a professional qualification. I work full time. My girlfriend is the same so on paper all good.

We live in Dublin and are looking to get married and have a couple of kids.

With the current cost of rent and the future costs of purchasing a house and childcare in Dublin we really can't see how to make it work.

This situation has developed under the Fine Gael government with some of the blame landing on Fianna Fail.

Fine Gael have been voted into government on a fairly consistent basis since 2000 and their target market is basically me. I no longer can explain why I'm voting for Fine Gael.

They are promising change again but nothing is happening. All I see are luxury apartments being built in Dublin.

We can see from the last election that it was basically the 65+ age group hat voted for Fine Gael - https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/exit-poll-by-numbers-who-voted-what-way-and-where-1.4166978

Most of these people likely couldn't tell you why they voted a certain way other than habit. They always voted for FG or FF and their parents did the same, ect. "This is a FG house".

It seems that Sinn Fein don't need to appeal to a different demographic than those who voted for them last time out, they just need to get a few more of this demographic to actually show up and vote. One clever person who runs a good marketing campaign is the only thing standing between us and a Sinn Fein led government.

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Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089684#Comment_118089684

Would not necessarily be impossible for SF to form a government without FF or FG involvement on those numbers. Obviously would depend on the makeup of the independents. I've said it before but if a non-FF/FG government was even remotely possible, there would be massive pressure on all sections of the Left top make it happen.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090731#Comment_118090731

Only if they end up with some absurd coalition. You are talking SF/SD/LB/GP/PBPSOL and then 5 INDs.

Absolutely no way that government gets anything done. You are also relying on the PBPSOL crowd who can barely agree what day of the week it is and have no interest at all in being part of the decision making process.

They need FF.

Of course, election is far away still, SF could see further gains, but they need to start eating larger chunks of FF's dinner rather than taking from the plates of the other left parties.

FrancieBrady

I think SF are positioning themselves for a coalition government deal with FF or FG at their Ard Fheis atm. Dropping their rejection of the SCC with caveats is a big move.

Larbre34

It is yeah, they should be dropping it without caveats, but they want to keep their nefarious friends somewhat onside.

Usual SF nonsense, cherry picking law and order and the constitution since 1971.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090838#Comment_118090838

While I said FF would be crazy to go for this, the chances of FG entertaining a coalition with SF is absolutely zero.

FG would lick their lips at going into opposition against SF/FF. Outside of actually winning the election and getting top spot again, that outcome is probably the next best from a FG party political viewpoint.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090860#Comment_118090860

I'd have said that of old FG and FF. But look what happened. FG displayed a hunger to stay in power last time. I wouldn't be so sure of what they would do. Neither FF nor FG can afford to become irrelevant and one of them will as politics re-adjust away from the power swap of the last 100 years.

Larbre34

They will merge, sooner or later. No other long term solution makes sense. It'll probably begin with electoral pacts and so forth, and will take a decade or two to complete, but it will happen.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090889#Comment_118090889

How would a SF/FG coalition even work? What do they even agree on? Coalition usually means compromises on policy but it generally requires some sort of commonality to at least begin with.

I can't imagine SF would consider a FG coalition to be honest. They would need to be really desperate for power.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090889#Comment_118090889

FG being the primary opposition to SF/FF would obviously be the exact opposite of becoming irrelevant.

Anyway, this is silly. There is zero chance of FG going into coalition with SF. Absolutely stone cold zero.

Larbre34

Correct.

In fact, SF are coalition repugnant to everyone bar the far loony left and combined with their seat bonus aversion, the limit of their ambitions may be quite a bit lower than they expect.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090945#Comment_118090945

Put a glass and your ear to the door of any FF meeting up and down the country, and catch a fair whack of the parliamentary party in their honest moments. A plurality would rather a coalition with SF than FG. That's reality.

They're going to make life very difficult for Vardakar once he's back in the driver's seat, and you can't say the man hasn't earned it.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090925#Comment_118090925

Ideologically, is there any difference between FF and FG worth talking about? So if a coalition with FF is possible, one with FG is too.

Politics in Ireland is changing in a way I never thought it would. Anything is possible.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090935#Comment_118090935

Grand theory if you think the FG demographic isn't changing. But it is and very quickly too.

Podge_irl

Can you please enlighten me as to how and where it is so rapidly changing that something that they ruled out within fractions of a second after the last election somehow would become plausible further down the line? They have been by far the most antagonistic to each other in the current Dail. There is not the remotest sign of their enmity disappearing.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091054#Comment_118091054

I wouldn't rule it out, is all I am saying.

A couple of years ago I would have adamantly ruled out FF and FG coalescing.

Look at the vote FG can now muster if you have problems understanding how the demographics are changing. It isnt that long ago ceilings of the high teens were being talked about for SF.

Podge_irl

Yes, SF have done remarkably well. But while the FG vote is heading downwards, the demographic very much remains those who would rather see the party dissolve than go into govt with SF.

It is possible in the pointless sense of "anything is possible", but there is really zero reason to think it is ever going to happen. Particularly not when FF exist and are the much, much, much likelier to do so.

[Deleted User]

The party to gain the most will be the one in opposition when and if SF are in power imo.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091106#Comment_118091106

My personal opinion is that either FF or FG will take a hammering next time out. That will leave only 2 parties capable of forming a 2 party coalition. The size of the SF mandate will create its own dynamic. If it is a large vote then I rwally dont think they can be shut out on moral grounds.

And I don't think either FF or FG have a track record of maintaining a moral stance and are well able to swallow hard. And i think a coalition is possible for that reason.

We'll see.

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089657#Comment_118089657

Not balancing the books is ok. LOL.

Probably something the SF spoofer finance rep would say. The country is riddled with debt ffs. Let's not pile more welfare handouts on to an already inflated welfare state. FF and FG have done enough damage there.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089726#Comment_118089726

what are you talking about, might consider it? did you forget the last election , SF would have won most seats if they ran more candidates. Some of their candidates, nobody knew who they were, but people so sick of the FFG crap, the voted for them regardless... I can only imagine another several years of this current farce, things are going to get worse for the coalition of failure. If talking meant anything, ireland would be worldclass in every regard...

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089704#Comment_118089704

please, enlighten me with what they got right.. i am all ears... The motorway network isnt bad, Ill give you one there... They are appalling on the environment, and frankly every other matter in my opinion. Cant defend ourselves, law and order is a farce. Infrastructure a farce. health, housing ...

I will tell you what though, we do have a world class welfare state aswel though, creating a sort of poverty trap. You probably see that as a good thing, I dont...

Keep Margaret cash and co from emigrating, god forbit. Keep them here at all costs! Let the young and educated, facing rip off everything here, emigrate... Its just a really brilliant idea... Wolf of wall street rate of marginal tax on a peasant income. Thats the irony though isnt it, outrageous taxes for the little peasant, while the wolf of wall street pays in a relative pittance. Wanderer78 correctly raises many of the issues facing society. Far too many of you , have been listening to the FFG BS of "well they contribute a pittance in corporation tax" but they have a factory or two etc in ireland... Trickle down economics bullshit. Designed to keep those who know a bit more than nothing, thinking we arent actually being screwed! These companies with more money than god, contribute a pittance of what they morally should be...

But go on, defend someone here earning over 35,000 losing half their income... (half their income over 35k or whatever pittance it is. I just know some genius will be along to tell me, that you dont lose half your income at 35k...)

[Deleted User]

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091223#Comment_118091223

Mary Lou got it wrong, no two ways about it. Tactically messed up and cost SF at least 5 years. A weak leader, unlike SF leaders of the past.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091191#Comment_118091191

this is now well proven, go outside of politics for this one, theres now sufficient evidence to support, a deficit run economy is far more safer than a primarily credit run one, but not problem free of course, once again, graph supplied! we truly need to get over this one, oh and deficit money doesnt necessarily need to be only given to those on welfare, even though pup has proven, given citizens on welfare more money directly benefits the economy, as this money is spent into the economy, but providing the economy with more public money via deficit spending is far better, as private sector money, i.e. credit, generally just moves towards asset markets, inflating asset prices, in particular related to property and land markets.

the whole planet is riddled with debt, its how our economic and monetary systems work, i.e. credit and debt! without it, there would be no economic activities, period, but again as the graph shows, private debt has now become the far more dangerous of the two, so pick your poison!

Ireland Debt.jpg

FrancieBrady

There would be some who would see this answer as maybe not the door being opened, but certainly being held ajar.

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1454135715047120901

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091168#Comment_118091168

But how does it come to be FG rather than FF that is doing the deal with SF. Can you sketch out the circumstances where that could happen? FF turn them down but FG are up for it?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091393#Comment_118091393

Thought I had written that post clearer.

I think it will be only one or the other able to hold negotiations. FF or FG will take a hammering and not be able to form a 2 party coalition.

With a FG Taoiseach heading into an election,(if the government runs it's term) it could well be FG taking that hammering.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091428#Comment_118091428

I don't see why it has two be a two-party coalition. Plenty of left-wing parties up for a deal with SF. IMO FF+Lab+SD+whoever will always be a prefereable lineup of coalition partners than FG for SF.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091440#Comment_118091440

Correct. I was just talking about one possible scenario.

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091255#Comment_118091255

in the long run, its probably worked out even better for them!

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091428#Comment_118091428

FFG need to ditch their pathetic leaders, they are both toxic to the electorate...