Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

hometruths

According to the Business Post article citing the ESRI study:

The research also found that 67 per cent of Irish residential units properties were being under-utilised, with people living in houses that were too big for their needs, with more bedrooms than were necessary.

Interesting that the ESRI focussed on number of bedrooms. Eurostat's claim that we have very high number of underoccupied houses has been pooh poohed on here before because we have less open plan living.

ESRI also found that:

More than 88 per cent of people over the age of 65 are living in under-occupied housing

Homeowners lived in under-occupied housing in 80 per cent of cases, whereas for renters, this figure dropped to 38.4 per cent

Rural dwellers also reported a much higher rate of under-occupation, with 75 per cent living in a house with more bedrooms than necessary, against 58 per cent in city centres.

Yet another example in which the data about housing in Ireland seems to be some way out of sync with the headlines about housing in Ireland.

Villa05

Yesterday's daft report was a disaster for an economy strangled by lack of housing

Prices up, supply at all time lows

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121945807#Comment_121945807

The ESRI report correctly used number of bedrooms as the metric, whereas eurostats was based solely on "rooms", which will always see apartments score worse in overcrowding than houses with equivalent bedrooms.

The Eurostat metrics do not accurately reflect the situation here, that doesn't mean there isn't an issue with under occupancy, it just means eurostats metrics are faulty

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121945807#Comment_121945807

I can think of a handful of bungalow developments for the elderly. Still, I can't imagine how we as a country would attempt large-scale projects to entice the elderly out of their under-occupied houses. There is almost no incentive for an elderly person to sell the family home and move away from their community.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946040#Comment_121946040

I think supply has started very slowly coming in, numbers are growing but of course not enough to what is needed. Also price versus quality is atrocious. Run down shaks demanding walk in prices.

It always amaze me how poorly people in the category of "asset rich" truly live in their houses before they die. They live in poverty 3rd world conditions yet the lovely lambs who inherit the houses are fluffing all happy to the banks with the proceeds after not even washing a single window in the parental homes. You would think they would do it even for the memory of the dead parent.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946147#Comment_121946147

It requires cheap to run and well insulated apartments in their locality, so they aren't moving away from friends, family and the area they know.

But objections and sentimentality put a stop to it for the most part.

And the fact that Irish apartments are generally quite poorly made, and soundproofing is non existent.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946164#Comment_121946164

I would have assumed bungalows instead of apartments, I can't see people selling their nice 4 bed with gardens to go live in a non-descript apartment complex.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946184#Comment_121946184

Offer easy access to other services - cleaners (optional, charged), Meals on Wheels, a social club, a warden, emergency call bells - and plenty of people will be tempted to go.

Iveagh Trust has social housing complexes specifically for the elderly and specifically for those who can give back a 3+ bed house/flat to their housing body/council - they have these services.

The bungalow developments offering something like this are an artefact of the 80s, they aren't space efficient. Flat block with multiple redundant lifts does have higher upkeep costs but you get a lot more units in the space.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946190#Comment_121946190

Agree, 2 bed bungalow type developments are horrendously inefficient use of space for a modern city. All well and good building low rise retirement villages in the vast empty space in Florida or Arizona, but that kind of development has no place in a city. And it's in our cities where we are really suffering from housing shortage and have a need for people to downsize.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946294#Comment_121946294

There would need to be a substantial change in how apartments are planned, built, and furnished for the current perception of apartment living to change. That perception is very true to form based on construction practices (or lack of) over the past 25 years.

It's one thing to ask people to trade down in space. It's another to ask them to trade down in location and quality of life. Personally I lived in Northwood in Santry maybe 10 years ago and it was very poor. I'm sure that's not typical now of how apartments are built.

timmyntc

https://www.businesspost.ie/article/investment-in-irish-residential-property-plunged-70-last-year-to-just-e300m-knight-frank/

Womp womp womp

Private funding into residential property dropped off a cliff in H2 2023.

Dropped 70% year on year to 300m, down from 1.8B the year prior.

And of that 300m, 98% was invested in H1. 2nd half of last year saw investment in Irish housing totally dry up.

And for those unaware, apartment building is almost totally dependent on private sector financing to get built, unless it's social blocks by AHBs. It seems the idea that higher prices = more supply may not hold true at all.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946086#Comment_121946086

No doubt the ESRI method is a better one. But whatever way you look at it we have a very high level of under occupied houses in Ireland.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946294#Comment_121946294

To make it worse, the 80s type are usually one bed! With a kitchenette but a full living room and large bathroom. Add a garden or yard, possibly parking space that is exceptionally unlikely to be used - and never all used at once - and they take up a lot of space per used bed space.

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946147#Comment_121946147

Problem is nobody is even trying to think of any ways at all to try and entice the elderly out of their under occupied family homes.

If some of the billions pumped into HTB and shared equity was targeted towards the downsizer rather than the FTBer we might see some results.

And if people were able to get past the idea that the only solution to the current problems is more new builds, and consider ways to increase turnover in the second hand market we could potentially alleviate some of the worst problems quite quickly.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946422#Comment_121946422

Given we currently have full employment, and full construction employment at that, and that we have a state with billions of euros of excess revenue every year, this needn't be much of a problem. The state could/should step in and use any spare construction capacity that emerges for the much needed building of social and affordable housing units. Get some of the 60,000 households on HAP off of that and save taxpayer euros in the medium/long term.

But given the housing policies our current government has used to date we'll probably instead just get more tax breaks for builders or FTBs in an attempt to attract in more private sector money. They've proven completely allergic to the state actually building.

Roberto_gas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946422#Comment_121946422

more bad news for supply

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946670#Comment_121946670

the time to do that was 10 years ago - now the properties are simply poor value and way over priced - hence the drop in construction despite full employment and higher prices

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946933#Comment_121946933

The govt dont want to get involved in building houses, nor do the councils want to manage properties. Look at the rent arrears they all accrue..

1 in 3 DCC rental tenants are in arrears.

But govt should be forced to build social and affordable homes and leave the private market to do its job and find its own price point - which would be much lower if the govt didnt keep interfering and removing stock from private ownership/rental, in favour of social housing.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946951#Comment_121946951

and now after 10 interest rate rises mortgage arrears are rising too

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946933#Comment_121946933

Not sure about 2014 given gov't finances but that excuse was gone by 2017.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946951#Comment_121946951

Any idea how much of what they are now buying is former NAMA stock?

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946933#Comment_121946933

My point wasn't that the government should buy properties from private sectort developers. Thats what we're currently doing, and its both a huge waste of government resources and unfair on people trying to buy their own homes now competing with the government using their own tax euros to bid against them.

My point was that if the crash in private sector investment in the construction sector results in any spare capacity that capacity should be used by the government to build long overdue social/affordable housing units to reduce the large numbers on very expensive HAP.

Emblematic

@BlueSkyDreams ,

"But govt should be forced to build social and affordable homes and leave the private market to do its job and find its own price point - which would be much lower if the govt didn't keep interfering and removing stock from private ownership/rental, in favour of social housing."

There was a discussion about this a while back. The problem is that it is impossible for the Government or a State agency to build homes without some interference in the private market. The agency tasked with this work becomes another competitor for land, labour and materials pushing up prices for private buyers just as if the Government were buying direct from private builders.

SpoonyMcSpoon

Higher prices equalling higher supply is exactly the conclusion from that report. Therefore, as a corollary, lower prices does not necessarily mean lower supply and so it is consistent to target increased supply of housing and lower prices. One of the main opposition parties was ridiculed for calling for such an outcome recently but based on recent political events, that opposition party’s policy may be one we all need to familiarise ourselves with very soon!

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946147#Comment_121946147

The state could CPO churches around the country, for a minimal fee and tell the church that this is in lieu of the redress scheme.

Knock down the church and build "retirement apartments" on the land. These can be built high because the church steeple or belltower sets the height standard.

Have an on-site nurse, small dog park, communitu garden area, coffee shop and other amenities for the occupants. Make the place attractive to move to.

Only allow the units to be rented, on a lease for the remainder of the tenant's life. Give the tenants security of tenure.

This would allow small retirement villages to be built across the countru in local areas, which may encourage local residents to downsize without having to move to an area they are unfamiliar with.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121947572#Comment_121947572

What a load of rubbish

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121947572#Comment_121947572

Its extremely practical/logical/morally reasonable, and would be a far better use of the land for local communities than letting it go to waste as church attendance numbers fall drastically every year. And I'd guess it will almost certainly happen at some stage in the future. But unfortunately I'd guess we're 30 years away from having politicians brave enough to do this.

It'll probably take the Dail being majority people born after 1990 or so, who were raised relatively free of the church, before it'll happen.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121948040#Comment_121948040

I mean, you're saying churches have no importance beyond a place of worship.

Sure knock down Newgrange and build a load of flats on the Hill of Tara while you're at it.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121947316#Comment_121947316

And thats ok, but leave the private entities to build private homes.

Its obviously fine to have a Part 5 social/affordable allocation, but the current approach of stealing whole apartment complexes in the most expensive parts of the country for 100% social housing is just wrong.

The developments the govt do build/finance should include affordable and cost rental, not just social houses for people on no or low incomes; We need to house the nurses and teachers who cant afford private rents but earn too much for social housing income limits.

Eclectic Econometrics

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121947965#Comment_121947965

There's the added bonus of having a graveyard nearby.

downtheroad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121947965#Comment_121947965

For me, having numerous vastly underused churches on large land banks, particularly in urban areas, is rubbish and the land could be repurposed and put to much better use.

A church in finglas has already brrn approved for downsizing, to make way for badly needed accommodation.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/religion-and-beliefs/council-approves-demolition-of-one-of-dublin-s-biggest-churches-1.4162981

I can count 6 churches within a 1km radius of my house in Dublin 5, 2 of which are on huge plots of land. Times have changed and there is no requirement for this number of churches in the area, but the area is crying out for accommodation.

Also none of those 6 churches have a graveyard attached, as per one comment above. And as to building in Newgrange, there is a vast difference, never mind the fact Newgrange is in the middle of nowhere.

Anyway it won't happen, just an idea to locate land in overpopulated parts of Dublin that could be put to better use.