Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121933639#Comment_121933639

I pretty sure your property portfolio has done quite well as result of housing failures and inability to place reasonable restrictions and taxes on airbnb type properties

Let's not pretend that the landed classes are not significant beneficiaries of government demand driven policies with next to nothing on the supply side

Villa05

Highly questionable if the high first time buyers last year is a sign of success or failure.

To me it looks like high demand areas peaking and unaffordability process spreading nationwide

History doesn't repeat but it rhymes

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/surge-in-property-prices-in-cheaper-counties-amid-nationwide-scramble-for-affordable-housing/a1175183795.html

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121933683#Comment_121933683

Sounds like the Housing market in general not just self build

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121936911#Comment_121936911

Everything will continue to go up unless the endless big government debt making comes to an end.

only $200 oil price and resulting 8% interest rates will stop the rise.

monkeybutter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121936955#Comment_121936955

its worse

I mean if you have big mullah, its the only way to go, but for the joe soaps, no

I mean local needs is very selective, perhaps unless you know someone

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121936959#Comment_121936959

what you are talking about there is an end of world scenario where no business survives.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121933516#Comment_121933516

Another questionable conclusion

If the state is paying up to 750k on a 20 year lease to house a couple. Is that a left/right wing policy?

If the state is using taxpayers money to assist people in buying property rather than using to increase supply thereby dampening inflation, would that be better outcome for the economy and citizens

Using taxpayers money to increase rent and asset prices doesn't strike me as leftist

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121936892#Comment_121936892

There are restrictions on Airbnb type properties, and Airbnb pass all information related to income to Revenue, I pay the full tax amount on it, and am in full compliance with the legislation, so I’m not sure you know what failures you are referring to.

Blut2

I imagine quite a lot of people these days would say someone renting out a second (or third, or fifth) property they own to tourists while there are thousands of homeless Irish children in the country is a housing policy failure.

In a housing crisis housing units should be used for owner occupiers, or landlords renting to local renters. Tourists should be staying in hotels or other purpose built, more efficient use of resources, accomodation.

herbalplants

Is anyone else noticing the rental numbers are going up? There are way more rentals available and some of the prices way more reasonable than previously.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121937272#Comment_121937272

I've actually seen some 'To Let' signs on the street for the first time in years, though I don't follow the rental market closely to know if its improved.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121937279#Comment_121937279

The needle seems to have moved from "f*ck all" to "nothing good"

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121937272#Comment_121937272

Put in our old rental filter from 2020 as a matter of interest. Was quite a narrow filter so sample size is small, but it’s at 45 properties now and was never above 12 the entire time we looked (and regularly below 5).

Price relative to quality looks much better also if you allow for 4 years of high inflation.

Great sign if the rental market starts to stabilise!

GoldFour4

The weekly refresh of this ad on Daft. Have lost track of the number of weeks its been refreshed now. They've gone from POA to listing the price now which clearly shows they aren't getting the interest they think. Imagine paying that money for the site. "The walled-in site is approx 0.29 Acres and currently does not have planning or services and includes private pedestrian access"

https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/site-merrion-road-ballsbridge-site-merrion-road-155-ballsbridge-dublin-4/5631984

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121937791#Comment_121937791

"people with helicopters need only apply"

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121937272#Comment_121937272

Had a quick peek. Seem to be more properties compared to when I last looked a while back, but "way more reasonable" would not be my choice of words for the prices. Managed to find a similar apartment in the same block and by the same landlord as the one I rented 2020-2021. 15% increase in price.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121937009#Comment_121937009

If the State better utilised its resources then it would be considered "centre". By all means house people in council houses in council estates, you don't pay your rent you are out after 3 months. Remember the differential rate of rent for those who avail of state support for housing based on your income etc.

If the state held people accountable for their actions then maybe the situation might change? Why do you think Part V legislation was brought into the planning process? Rather than deal with anti social issues the State sees fit to spread the issue around.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121937229#Comment_121937229

You mean the hotels with all the Asylum Seekers?

If the govt stops removing hotels from the tourist market, what you suggest might be fair game.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121937920#Comment_121937920

Yes.

Using large numbers of commercial hotels for asylum seekers is obviously incredibly wasteful of government resources and terrible policy in every way.

It costs tax payers a fortune, which by itself would make it bad policy. It also removes tourists from rural areas who're very dependent on them, costing jobs and the local economy. But specifically relating to the housing market it also takes large numbers of hotel rooms off the market, pushing tourists into Airbnbs, and forcing Irish people into higher rents and homelessness as a result.

I think 90% of Irish people would agree with the idea that it should be stopped ASAP these days, but our current government just doesn't seem to. Almost every week there are new reports of hotels being block booked for it, still.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121937966#Comment_121937966

Agree with all of your observations.

I would say it also hits local businesses hard, if potential customers/business partners are not able to visit and stay in the locality, they are likley to look for business opportunities elsewhere/outside of Ireland.

Isn't O'Gorman due to announce his long term IPA plan this week?

Hopefully, it will include an unwinding of the hotels being used as emergency accomodation, but somehow, I doubt it.

timmyntc

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/irish-property-inflation-to-cool-to-4-this-year-but-outpace-eu-counterparts/

Irish property prices to grow by only 4% this year

And as we all know, Irish properties are massively too big for our needs. 88% of over 65s live in houses with more bedrooms than they need, but without options for trading down what are they to do?

FernandoTorres

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121944904#Comment_121944904

This is a massive issue and exacerbates the housing crisis. I live in a middle class south Dublin suburb and the vast majority of the 3/4/5 bed housing stock is now occupied by one or two elderly people. In a lot of these cases the houses haven't had anything done to them since the 80s and despite being paper millionaires a lot of them are living in situations not far off poverty. They're asset rich but cash poor. Seems a huge opportunity for the Govt to encourage downsizing by offering incentives. Obviously the first step is to build places that people would be happy to move to. At the moment from speaking to a lot of them they're open to the idea but read the news and just put it in the too hard bucket.

Blut2

I live in a very similar area in South Dublin. I'd say 80% of the homes near me are occupied by a single pensioner or else pensioner couple in a 4 bedroom house. Its a shockingly bad use of the available space during a housing crisis.

I'm not sure what extra incentives the government could offer though - capital gains on your PPR are already exempt.

The only two things that I can see helping to change this scenario are 1) a big increase in suitable local elder living apartment/townhouse complexes. Or 2) a big increase in property tax to encourage downsizing.

Both should ideally be happening.

awec

I think the government did try to incentivise this, or something very similar, but it didn't work. Can't remember what it was called.

People didn't want to leave the houses that their kids grew up in etc. Sentimental stuff.

FernandoTorres

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121945062#Comment_121945062

From the financial side maybe some kind of tax/pension incentive to invest the lump sum that's released on downsizing. Also I think there needs to be some kind of agency or free financial advice provided to people so they can understand how it would work and what their options are. A huge amount of the inertia is just the fear of the unknown. There is of course a sentimental aspect to it but again I think that can be worked through. I moved back to Ireland after 10 years in Australia and the quality of life between over 65s there and here is crazy. Not going on holidays or heating your house and living in damp, mouldy rooms because you don't want to leave your family home is not a good way to live.

L1011

There's also the protection of some of your PPR value from Fair Deal to consider - if you downsize and end up with 300k in the bank, all of that could eventually go to Fair Deal whereas if you leave it in your PPR, max 45% (7.5% * 3 years * 2 people) of it can be taken.

edit: its actually 22.5%, they half it for half a couple; but that also applies to what they take from bank accounts.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121945017#Comment_121945017

Living in similar area, unfortunately these people are amongst the first to object to new developments they could potentially downsize to with politicians of all parties aiding them

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121945199#Comment_121945199

Also taxation on deposit interest, plus inflation eating purchasing power while property appreciation is tax free

System rewards inefficient use of property and housing

SpoonyMcSpoon

if there are so many paper millionaires living in houses that are too big for their needs but the next generation who, in our traditional housing market, would typically buy them are locked out of the housing market, there appears to be quite a reckoning coming for houses 700/800k+ in Dublin in the coming couple of decades. The younger generations would need to have existing homes to trade up which the trending home ownership rates indicate they won’t.

I could see houses in that price category in Dublin actually being the same price as they are now in 10-20 years since there does not seem to be the next generation available in sufficient numbers to trade up and pay the mad money prices for those older people’s houses. These people will of course die over time which will naturally increase the supply of homes to the market unlike in the current situation where people selling need to buy something themselves.

It is a number’s game and the question is what are the home ownership rates like now for under 45s compared to the number of older people owning homes in Dublin as that could show where the Dublin market might be in 10-20 years. That being said, juicing the market with some leverage can prevent prices stagnating over such a long period.

AdamD

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121945496#Comment_121945496

The people looking to buy those in the future are already buying smaller, cheaper homes right now. The people locked out of the housing market were never in danger of bidding for an 800k home to begin with. There's more money in Dublin than ever