Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

JohnnyChimpo

"high inflation at 3-5% for the next 10 years" doesn't seem to line up with any of the serious predictions out there

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121915665#Comment_121915665

I'd imagine that was also the case in 2019, yet the number of 18 to 34 year olds living at home has jumped from 45 to 68% in 4 years.

Consider also that far more of that demographic are leaving the country now than in 2019 as the housing and rental markets have significantly deteriorated in that time. Expect it to deteriorate further as housing targets are inadequate and likely to fall short. Lack of action on dereliction and Airbnb s further compounds the issue

As a nation it's nothing short of shameful.

Using a Europe wide survey, the EU statistics agency Eurostat estimated that before the pandemic, in 2019, almost 45% of 18-34-year-olds in Ireland lived at home with their parents – ranking Ireland 13th out of 27 EU countries. By 2022, these numbers soared to 68% and Ireland ranked 6th in the EU

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121920135#Comment_121920135

There will always be someone insisting its going to pop and eventually one of them will be right - but by luck, nothing else

Luck!

We are at a point where new builds are priced outside the affordability range of most first time buyers. How much longer do you think this situation continues with multiple subsidies available to both buyers and developers

Jonnyc135

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121921252#Comment_121921252

Thats because they cannot or will not believe that the era of world peace and globalism is over. That’s what anchored inflation down, the anchors chain has broke.

The ‘experts’ cannot say this even though they know it to be the case as it would raise inflation expectations even more so of course they will not state the obvious and instead give predictions of something else other than that to appease the markets and try and control the narrative/expectations.

Villa05

How rent controls are problematic and how to exit them

https://youtu.be/bJrpU6DK0HI?si=5awjrAR11ATR69va

ingo1984

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121921252#Comment_121921252

The EU are also mandated to keep inflation at 2%

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121921453#Comment_121921453

Any date I give you will be a guess and it will only be luck if its right. That's my point.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121921453#Comment_121921453

Presumably as long as there are still first time buyers capable of affording new builds. That is the way markets work. If houses remain unsold, prices drop. Those who are buying are benefitting and properties are selling.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121922261#Comment_121922261

I remember i was in college before rent controls got introduced in Ireland. Our lecturer spent a few lectures on whats in that very video you posted and how they were a bad idea. He went through several examples of where rent controls had the opposite of the desired effect in cities before.

He said "mark my words, Supply will plummet and rents will rocket if this is brought in". Sad to say that not one of the people responsible for this got any advice from any economist at all.

Now Ireland is the example that will be used in classrooms all over the world to show what happens when you introduce rent controls.

Nermal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121921252#Comment_121921252

Did the people you consider as giving 'serious predictions' predict the inflation that resulted from the monetary policies introduced in response to COVID?

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925200#Comment_121925200

No, they just shouted “the sky is falling”. There are so many moving parts to the price of housing that bar a catastrophic recession or mass emigration on a level not seen since the Famine, prices are not going to fall to the extent where everyone can afford to buy a home.

Zenify

A good few properties coming on stream the last week. Things were pretty thin the last few months. Even compared to other years with those months.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121922818#Comment_121922818

That's not how the property market works

Only a very limited number of new builds are making it to first time buyers. There at the back of the queue behind investment funds, the state flush with ftb taxes, employers and even colleges buying up new estates at twice the market rate of similar estates in the area.

Ftbs are buying properties from exiting landlords and other 2nd hand properties. The pool of rentals is dwindling making the decision of our young educated/qualified kids to leave very easy. We are heading for a brain drain comparable to the 80's if we continue this madness

Our brightest will be replaced by refugees that will have to be paid for at a much greater housing cost as its done through hotels or other inappropriate housing arrangements with the providers naming the price knowing the government is desperate.

As this continues owning a home in Ireland will become a liability as the occupants will have to pay more and more tax to cover the madness.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why all these migrants are not assessed and dispersed across the EU based on there skillet and need for such skills in the destinationn country.

We know they have to have some skillset as the cost of getting out of these countries can be enormous

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925903#Comment_121925903

‘Only a very limited number new builds are making it to first time buyers. They are at the back of the queue to state, funds etc.’

• the largest purchasing group of new homes in Ireland over the period of 2015-2022, averaging 32%, is first time buyers

• the second largest purchasing group is other owner occupiers at 25%

• social housing is third at 22%

• pension funds and other institutions are less than 10%

• 30,000 first time buyers got their keys in 2023. The most in 17 years.

’Our best and brightest will be replaced by refugees’

• Our net migration of Irish citizens over the last year is almost exactly 0. Meaning an equal number are returning as are leaving. This does not suggest any form of mass emigration issue.

Are there problems in housing. Absolutely, particularly in the rental sector … but I think you might be catastrophizing just a little

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925903#Comment_121925903

Please read the mod note in post #1 before posting again

Padre_Pio

I was chatting to a property manager who works for Cork CC. He has over 30 vacant properties on his books and has handed over only 5 in the past 12 months. Councils are seriously slow at moving people into housing. My own estate has two houses lying vacant for well over a year.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121926712#Comment_121926712

Councils have been appalling at turning over houses for decades - "voids" is the term used across councils for it.

I suspect some of them leave the dearer to handle ones to one side deliberately; hoping for a cash injection from the Department to do it.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121920135#Comment_121920135

Read recently 6% of apartments in Dublin were sold to owner occupiers last year iirc.

The government is de facto the property market, once they keep chucking billions at it prices and rents are going one direction.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121927871#Comment_121927871

Forward funding from investors, 1.7B in 2021 is the main reason why apartments are being built in Dublin. These properties do not hit the open market, they are the property market in Dublin, without them, properties wouldn’t be built.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121926069#Comment_121926069

I think this paragraph is the most relevant to my post you quoted as this is where the majority of the 18 to 34 year olds would aspire to begin there independent lives. More than 2/3's of that demographic were living at home with parents in 2022 (up from 45% since 2019) and more than a leaving cert year population leaving annually. For that particular demographic it does seem to be a catastrophe

Are there problems in housing. Absolutely, particularly in the rental sector … but I think you might be catastrophizing just a little

I was in the rental sector between 1998 and 2014, the period of the greatest property bubble of all time. The vast majority of citizens that wished to rent could do so.

It has never ever been as bad as it is now

Greyian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121930402#Comment_121930402

Have you got a source for "a leaving cert year population annually"?

There is nowhere close to that many Irish people leaving annually, and that seems to be what you were suggesting in previous posts, that we have a brain drain of 18-34 year olds.

I'd assume you're not counting non-Irish emigrants, as using emigration of people who have previously immigrated makes little sense.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121926069#Comment_121926069

• the largest purchasing group of new homes in Ireland over the period of 2015-2022, averaging 32%, is first time buyers

• the second largest purchasing group is other owner occupiers at 25%

• social housing is third at 22%

I note your figures are from a Hooke & Mcdonald report on deeper analysis the figures come with anomalies. They include self/builds/one off houses which by there nature are not intended for the open market. When they are excluded the figures look like this

• Sales to First time buyers and owner occupiers =28% down from 57% in your figures.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/cuckoo-funds-and-the-state-snap-up-42pc-of-new-homes-as-first-time-buyers-feel-the-squeeze/42388816.html

• pension funds and other institutions are less than 10%

Again you could double there percentage when excluding self builds and given that they only operate in high demand areas, they will be the dominant player in those markets

• 30,000 first time buyers got their keys in 2023. The most in 17 years

Coinciding with the lifting of the eviction ban, mass exodus of landlords and with it the rental protection of the tenants meaning a substantial increase in rents. Throw in shared ownership and ftb grant and you get the proverbial gun to the head to buy

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121930476#Comment_121930476

"Emigration also continued to increase, with 64,000 emigrants in the year to April 2023, a 14% increase from the previous year."

30,500 of which were Irish citizens.

https://emn.ie/publications/annual-report-on-migration-and-asylum-2022-ireland/

https://diasporasupport.ie/cso-population-and-migration-estimates-2023/

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121930476#Comment_121930476

My apologies emigration 64k of which 30,500 were Irish (year to April 2023)

I'm suggesting we will have a brain drain if we are unable to reverse the situation where 18 to 34 year olds are forced to stay living with there parents

Our housing system is set up to punish new entrants the most. Rent controls are the cause of this. It would be logical for those in that situation to leave for a place without rent controls

80% of emigration is from 15 to 44 year olds

Greyian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121930660#Comment_121930660

Exactly, 30,500 Irish citizens, while there were 63500 Leaving Cert candidates.

30,500 Irish citizens left, 29,600 Irish citizens returned. People love to claim that Irish citizens are leaving because of the property market, but conveniently ignore that Irish citizens are returning. If the country was in such dire straits, we would have people leaving in droves but very few returning.

In the year to April 2023, there were a total of 60,500 immigrants with citizenship from Ireland, the UK or the EU. In the same period, there were 49,600 emigrants with citizenship from Ireland, the UK or the EU.

None of these figures support the hypothesis that we are experiencing a brain drain. We've got people emigrating from Ireland as we always have had and we've got people immigrating to Ireland (as we've had for the last 30 years or so).

The number of Irish emigrants isn't out of kilter with the average over the long term either.

Note: The reason for looking only at Irish, UK, EU citizens for the migration figures is so we don't get anyone coming in and trying to claim that we are experiencing emigration of highly qualified people and experiencing immigration of solely people seeking asylum (who may or may not have comparable qualifications)

Greyian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121930698#Comment_121930698

CSO figures for emigration of Irish citizens since 2011 (the year FG first got into government):

30,500 is hardly an outlier (especially if you omit 2021 which would be the year to April 2021, as May 2020 to April 2021 would naturally have seen less emigration than normal due to Covid lockdowns and difficulty travelling).

It would also be entirely normal to see higher levels of emigration (in terms of total numbers) among early 20-somethings over the last few years. In terms of births, we had a dip during the 90s and a boom in the 2000s, so we have more early 20-somethings today than we did a few years ago.

I'd also hazard a guess that 80% of emigration being from 15 to 44 year olds isn't unusual. Do you expect to see a lot of 80 year olds emigrating?

I've reviewed the CSO figures and this is the breakdown by year (since 2011)

2011 - 81.64%

2012 - 77.71%

2013 - 75.03%

2014 - 78.93%

2015 - 75.43%

2016 - 74.92%

2017 - 82.17%

2018 - 74.61%

2019 - 80.98%

2020 - 81.34%

2021 - 74.38%

2022 - 75.94%

2023 - 81.56%

It's not like the year to end of April 2023 is some big outlier, in terms of either total number of Irish emigrants, or the number of total emigrants which are between 15 and 44 years of age.

I'd also agree that rent controls are a problem. Would you be in favour of scrapping them?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121930737#Comment_121930737

A 14% increase in people emigrating over 1 year plus a 50% increase in 18 to 34 year old living with there parents between 2019 and 2022 is nothing to be worried about then.

Villa05

30,500 Irish citizens left, 29,600 Irish citizens returned. People love to claim that Irish citizens are leaving because of the property market, but conveniently ignore that Irish citizens are returning. If the country was in such dire straits, we would have people leaving in droves but very few returning

Another poster mentioned the observations of foreign workers in their place and they were surprised at the high cost, low quality and lack of rentals while buying was reasonable.

I guess this is my point. It's very difficult for young Irish people to start out so emigrating is a very easy choice as renting here is next to impossible.

Current policy would only make this situation worse thereby we are loosing our most talented for there most productive years and yes they may come back, but never underestimate the ability of an Irish government to mess up the buying market also

Greyian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121930812#Comment_121930812

Comparing 2023 with 2022 isn't a completely fair comparison. 2022 is May 2021 to April 2022, when there were still restrictions on travel, whereas 2023 is May 2022 to April 2023, which had more free movement available.

It would also be reasonable to consider there may have been a bit of pent up demand for emigration of people who couldn't emigrate during Covid restrictions. Comparing 2019 to 2023, there was an increase of 12.1% over 4 years, which isn't exactly a huge increase (especially when considering that there were considerably more Irish-born 21-25 year olds in 2023 than in 2019, seeing as there were ~250k births between 1994 and 1998 (for 2019 21-25 year olds) vs ~275k births between 1998 and 2002 (for 2023 21-25 year olds)).

The big increase in 18-34 year olds living with parents is concerning, but suggesting that it will (rather than may) lead to a brain drain is far from certain.

It's odd that we have lots of highly qualified people coming to Ireland, and yet you're very confident that highly qualified will be soon leaving in their droves. You'd expect to see a drop in immigration of qualified people before an increase in emigration of the same people, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

It is also very far from certain that the price (which many of your recent posts seem to have suggested is the big problem) of property is the big issue for 18-34 year olds. It is far more likely that supply, rather than price is the big issue.

The average property price in Australia (oft touted as the land of milk and honey for Irish emigrants) is 12 times average salary. In Ireland, its more like 8 times average salary.

You seem to be arguing that all these people living at home with their parents (aka absolutely massive demand) is somehow an indicator of impending price falls.

The arguments you've presented in favour of price falls all actually seem to really highlight why prices might continue to rise.

Our underlying problem is supply related, not price related. The most common way of stimulating supply is by increasing prices which (in a non-constrained environment) would encourage an increase in supply (higher prices resulting in new entrants on the supply side)

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121930989#Comment_121930989

Irish net migration in 2022 is basically static. 30k irish left, 30k irish returned.

Nobody mentions the 30k that returned.