Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121952782#Comment_121952782

From DCC "The City Council has carried out a vacant land study of the inner city that identified more than 280 vacant sites totalling more than 60 hectares of vacant land. More than 100 of these sites are in the city centre zoned area (Z5)."

But sure let's demolish a church.

Even thinking the housing crisis is a result of lack of space is ridiculous

Greyian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121952652#Comment_121952652

What's always discounted by the people who endlessly proclaim that prices will drop, is that a drop at some point doesn't mean you're any better off.

If you were going to buy in late 2006 and waited until 2009, it would have worked out excellently for you.

If you were going to buy in 2000 and waited until 2009, even though prices were dropping for a few years in the run-up to 2009 you would still be paying far more than you would have if you'd just bitten the bullet in 2000.

There's a lot of people who have been saying prices will drop for the past 6 or 7 years. The CSO residential price index (for all property types, national) in January 2018 was 127.4 (Base 2015 = 100). The CSO residential price index in January 2024 was 177.0. So anyone who has been holding out for 6 years because "property prices will fall eventually" would need a 28% drop just to get back to where prices were originally, and would have been paying rent in the interim (while they'd have been paying down their mortgage if they'd bought).

It's only of any use if you can accurately predict that prices will decline relative to the date on which you make the prediction, not just that there will be a decline between 2 undefined dates in the future.

Greyian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121933137#Comment_121933137

Seeing as there hasn't been a large increase in emigration relative to historic norms, I don't see why there should be an automatic assumption that people are leaving due to lack of/price of rentals as a primary reason. People have always left, during both good times and bad, so trying to say it is a specific part of our current society causing it is reaching. The fact we have close to 70% of 18-34 year olds living with their parents would also suggest ultimately that young people will suck up living with their parents if they think there can be a positive outcome. If they didn't see any light at the end of the tunnel, why would any of them still be here? I'd reckon, from people I know, that a lot of people living with their parents after college (well, a few years beyond college, where they've settled into good jobs) is because they know they'll be able to buy a property far sooner by living with their parents and saving more vs. renting.

Do you have any statistics that back up that we are losing our well trained graduates for ~25% of their working life? Of the people I know personally who have emigrated in the last decade, ~80% of them were gone for 2.5 years or less, a single person was gone for nearly a decade (and travelled around the world for half that time, and worked quite menial jobs for most of the time) and 4 are still abroad. Of the 4 still abroad, 2 went together as a couple and are planning to return by the end of the year (left in late 2022), while the other 2 separately moved abroad for relationship reasons. 1 of the 2 has met someone new while abroad and is planning to return in a year or two, while the other person still abroad with no plans to return left Ireland because they were in a long-distance relationship and moved to live with their partner (in their partner's country).

I'm also against rent controls, and as you say, it'll take years to fix if they are removed. In the short term, removing them will do more damage than good (as it'll allow landlords to increase rents instantly, but will take far longer to tempt new supply into the rental market). The biggest issue with rent controls is that once they've been brought in (even if they get removed again), they permanently change the dynamic of the rental market because any existing or prospective landlord will now they can be brought in or modified again.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121953364#Comment_121953364

So you've just completely disproven your own point, 60 hectares is not "hundreds of acres" as you claimed.

That aside, again, why are you talking about Dublin as if its the country? The vast majority of Catholic churches are outside Dublin.

How many large vacant sites sit in the exact middle of towns and villages across Ireland the way a lot of the 3000 barely used Catholic churches do?

You're being intentionally obtuse if you can't admit most churches are on prime land right in the middle of our towns, of which there is very much a limited amount available. Which is why the land would be so well suited to redevelopment as senior housing (or just high density housing in general).

You've apparently had a visceral emotional reaction to the idea for some reason, but with mass attendances the way they are (and declining rapidly still) the repurposing of churches is going to happen, thats not even a question at this stage. Like I said, its happened to the majority of Protestant churches already, and the majority of Irish synagogues already. Catholic churches will be no different - the statistics are very clear that its a dying religion in Ireland, with a vastly oversized land holding for its requirements.

The important thing we should be doing now is to start discussing what should be done with the land to ensure its best used to benefit local communities. Having a willing buyer/willing seller government purchase plan in place would be far better for this than having no plan, letting the private sector buy it, and turn it into commercial space or similar less beneficial uses. Theres a real opportunity here to help towns/villages that our governments over the next decade or two should be grasping.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121953888#Comment_121953888

if you’re point is about churches outside Dublin then I struggle to see your point as there is plenty of land that could be built on. Outside the major city centres shortage of land is not an issue if planning and services are well thought out.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121953888#Comment_121953888

Read it again.

To quote myself "There's probably a hundred acres"

And there is over 140 acres according to the report.

No need to get emotional.

Roberto_gas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121953398#Comment_121953398

ppl could have made mullah investing that deposit/savings(if on low rent)in stocks 😉😉…but i know what u mean

ingo1984

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121953541#Comment_121953541

In the college I am attending as a mature student. They did a survey of first year students this year, how many planned on emigrating when they graduate? 69%/70% stated they planned on emigrating. That's simply shocking is that becomes an annual trend.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121953541#Comment_121953541

Seeing as there hasn't been a large increase in emigration relative to historic norms

We need to be careful about using "historical norms“ when measuring emigration, as for the history of the state either the Housing or jobs market or both have been in a state of dysfunction.

Both issues affect new entrants the most ie graduates.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121956004#Comment_121956004

How could full employment be considered dysfunctional? What has changed over the last 10 years is that MNCs offer high paying jobs which means that employees have more spending power to buy/rent properties. Also, there has been a shift in young people towards computer based careers and less need to emigrate for employment opportunities. This is not a bad thing, a lot of young people are emigrating because they want to, not out of necessity as their skills are transferable to other jurisdictions.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960290#Comment_121960290

whats dysfunctional is full employment with people paying 60%+ of their wages on rent if they are lucky

whats dysfunctional is full employment with only 10k houses in the country to buy

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960356#Comment_121960356

Are you forgetting we have gone from deep recession to full employment in 10 years, plus the highest population since the Famine? It is very unlikely that under any conditions that house building would have kept pace with that, never mind from a standing start.

The housing need for our current population is the equivalent of building the same number of houses in Cork City, that isn’t going to happen in the timescale necessary.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960482#Comment_121960482

Even if it was inevitable it doesn't make it not dysfunctional.

In a situation where MNCs are throwing money hand over first to hire in Ireland for roles and they can't find or retain staff because of housing availability, that is dysfunctional.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960505#Comment_121960505

BS.

When is companies trying to hire more employees wrong? If you open a business, it is successful and you want to hire more employees, is that dysfunctional? Of course not. You can’t build houses at the same rate you expand your workforce. If you take on 20 people over the next couple of months, it is incredibly naive to think you can instantly build accomadation for them immediately to keep pace with business expansion.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960518#Comment_121960518

When the bottleneck to your economic growth is housing, then the housing market is not functioning correctly, ergo it is dysfunctional.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960606#Comment_121960606

No, it just means our economic recovery and job creation occurred at a faster rate than we could build houses. It is easier, and faster to employ people than it is to build new houses for them. That isn’t rocket science. People haven’t had to move abroad for jobs over the last 10 years, which is great, but building takes time.

It’s almost as if people are bitter about how far we have come employment wise over the last 10 years. There are of course many, many moving parts and influencing factors in property development, if you decide today to build 1000 houses, it will be years before they are ready to be lived in.

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960654#Comment_121960654

it just means house building here hasnt kept pace with uncontrolled migration into the country

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960777#Comment_121960777

Is that a surprise?

With full employment it means businesses are doing well, to expand they need employees. You don’t need to be a member of Mensa to understand that it takes less time to employ someone than it does to build a house.

meijin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121951449#Comment_121951449

the plan submitted for that location in 2022… and refused

and the story behind https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/city-arts-centre-would-cost-e90000-to-get-to-satisfactory-condition-court-told-1488548.html

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121961166#Comment_121961166

That doesn't excuse the previous two decades of vacancy and dereliction

combat14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960835#Comment_121960835

well our mensa government need to make the businesses that are "doing well" pay more towards the housing problem then as well as seriously controlling illegal migration here as we have a serious homeless housing crisis, if they dont there eventually will be a new mensa government elected in their place

L1011

A further reminder to read the mod note in post 1 before posting.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960290#Comment_121960290

I should not have tell a person of your intellect that this was not said in the post you quoted

How could full employment be considered dysfunctional

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960654#Comment_121960654

Lily announced new plant in Limerick in Jan 22. I'm sure it was known before that. They just started recruiting for days only for 18 months. I would assume they go 24hr after that as the technology in the plant is state of the art. That's alot of notice to get the required housing and build up your rental market. Rinse and repeat for Edwards Lifesiences, Northern Trust, Regeneron plus expansions at most of the other Limerick based multinationals

The REA reported that 60% of home sales in Limerick city and 40% of sales in the county were from landlords exiting the market in first qtr 24 (source: Limerick Post)

The LDA (set up 2018) is sitting on state owned city centre land capable of delivering 2k units

The state has been the beneficiary of ever increasing unexpected corporate tax since 2016

The state began this cycle as the largest land and property owner in the world with the state in significant oversupply

The planning system governed by the state is dysfunctional and in many cases used as a land price appreciation tool and in other cases used as an extortion tool for Fine Gael party members

Any delays or distortions are self inflicted by state apparatus. What we are doing is akin to Ukraine taking out oil refineries in Russia or Russia taking out port and energy infrastructure in Ukraine.

We are attacking our own economy by denying it the necessary resources to function

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121945077#Comment_121945077

I imagine when you are in your 70s the neighbors who are friends play a big part in you wanting to stay put. Never mind the hassle of downsizing and the difference in quality of life you would have with what available and where its available.

You need to make where they are downsizing tom worth it to them. Otherwise you might as well just euthanize them as far as they are concerned.

combat14

innovation in Uk mortgage market - perhaps we could do with a bit of the same here to keep our bubble rising

Bank to offer 40-year interest-only mortgages

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/santander-interest-only-mortgages-bank-b2524155.html

DataDude

https://news.myhome.ie/property-report/myhome-ie-q1-2024-property-report-in-association-with-bank-of-ireland-32145

Myhome Q1 report not the most encouraging. Showing fairly rapid increases in increases in both asking prices and the extent to which sale prices are exceeding those higher asking prices. More pessimistic than Daft equivalent.

Only bright point. 71% of transactions in 2023 were for owner occupiers. A new record. Would suggest higher prices not slowing demand thus far.

Blut2

Its pretty grim reading overall for anyone looking to buy in the short/medium-term. Continual increases in price, continual decrease of the stock of properties for sale, and no increase in housing completions to anywhere near the required levels.

With the still consistent large yearly population increases ongoing too on top its hard to see anything changing hugely in the market within the next 2-3 years anyway.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121955225#Comment_121955225

What people say and what they do are often 2 different things.

Thats not to say your colleagues wont emigrate, but when you look at the facts from the CSO, the number of irish emigrating annually is approx 30k per year. Which is a lot.

However, this figure is offset by roughly the same number of irish returning each year.

So there is no net decline in irish people living in the state, though I do not know the age bands for those leaving/returning - though I suspect younger are leaving and middle aged with families returning because they can afford it at that stage of their career.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960290#Comment_121960290

This is very true.

A crude comparison, but we have supercharged the employment sector (which is a good thing) without developing housing stock to partner that growth in wages and employee numbers.

In the same way a gym goer that only works on their upper body and bulks up heavily experiences back pain from under developed legs, abs and back muscles, the state is in a prolonged period of growing pains, which can only be resolved by aligning the size of the economy and housing/infrastructure.

Until then, we are going to suffer societal growing pains for the forseeable.