Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

cameramonkey

Lumen wrote: »

Discharges don't matter as far as tracking development of disease incidence, they're too laggy (like deaths).

What matters is hospital admissions, and those continue to decline.

It looks like we're just crossing the 10-per-day mimimum admissions rate we had last autumn.

Don't ask me what the difference is between the two indicators. One is called SUM_number_of_new_covid_19_cases_co and the other SUM_no_new_admissions_covid19_p, and neither is defined anywhere publicly that I can find. A data dictionary would be useful.

Have you a link to that page. Thanks.

Lumen

cameramonkey wrote: »

Have you a link to that page. Thanks.

It's a screenshot of my own spreadsheet. The data is from

https://hub.arcgis.com/datasets/fe9bb23592ec4142a4f4c2c9bd32f749_0/data?orderBy=Date&orderByAsc=false

Lumen

One issue with hospital admissions data is that I don't think it reflects people suffering from COVID (as opposed to testing positive).

Like, if we have 5,000* acute hospital admissions a day and a community positive rate of 2%, we should expect 100 "admissions with COVID" a day, even if none of them are suffering from COVID (D for Disease). But I think we "COVID" test people before letting them into hospital (does that happen for "acute" hospitals?), so that reduces the numbers to those that have picked it up since their negative test.

All of which means I have no idea what the "right" number is for "COVID" hospital admissions, other than the near-zero we'll get when the positivity rate in the community is near zero.

(*) random number

AlmightyCushion

Lumen wrote: »

One issue with hospital admissions data is that I don't think it reflects people suffering from COVID (as opposed to testing positive).

Like, if we have 5,000* acute hospital admissions a day and a community positive rate of 2%, we should expect 100 "admissions with COVID" a day, even if none of them are suffering from COVID (D for Disease). But I think we "COVID" test people before letting them into hospital (does that happen for "acute" hospitals?), so that reduces the numbers to those that have picked it up since their negative test.

All of which means I have no idea what the "right" number is for "COVID" hospital admissions, other than the near-zero we'll get when the positivity rate in the community is near zero.

(*) random number

Except the 2% positivity rate isn't from a random sampling of the community. It comes from people presenting for testing which would have a much higher positivity rate than the general population. If 2% of swabs are positive today, it doesn't mean that if they tested the entire country that 2% would test positive.

Lumen

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Except the 2% positivity rate isn't from a random sampling of the community. It comes from people presenting for testing which would have a much higher positivity rate than the general population. If 2% of swabs are positive today, it doesn't mean that if they tested the entire country that 2% would test positive.

Sure, I knocked it down a bit from the 3-ish% it is reported as. I have no idea what the actual positive rate is.

So, to summarise:

- How many people are admitted to hospital suffering from COVID? Don't know.
- How many people in the community are infected? Don't know.

I assume this level of ignorance is universal, and that I haven't missed some insightful government briefigs.

podgeandrodge

Does anyone know in general, what vaccines GP's have at the moment - do they get supplies of all of them, or is it confined to certain vaccines?

timmyntc

Lumen wrote: »

Sure, I knocked it down a bit from the 3-ish% it is reported as. I have no idea what the actual positive rate is.

So, to summarise:

- How many people are admitted to hospital suffering from COVID? Don't know.
- How many people in the community are infected? Don't know.

I assume this level of ignorance is universal, and that I haven't missed some insightful government briefigs.

We do know how many are admitted to hospital. They will have been tested on admission so its all recorded.

As for the 2nd stat - its impossible to accurately know this because unless you test everyone you'll never know for sure. You can do representative mass testing in areas and make inferences but you can only get so accurate from that.

Stheno

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Does anyone know in general, what vaccines GP's have at the moment - do they get supplies of all of them, or is it confined to certain vaccines?

Seem to have them all,, there was an article in the indo (I think ) yesterday about needing to use up AZ before they expire

Wolf359f

Stheno wrote: »

Seem to have them all,, there was an article in the indo (I think ) yesterday about needing to use up AZ before they expire

AZ lasts up to 6 months in a fridge, there's no vials hanging around that long.
From my understanding, GP's only get pfizer or moderna, not both.

is_that_so

Donegal Gardai setting up hotline for COVID breaches. All for letting people make their best decisions during this but all sorts of "suboptimal" behaviour at work here

Outbreaks have been linked to wakes, beach parties and birthday celebrations

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/donegal-garda%C3%AD-set-up-hotline-for-covid-breaches-1.4554987

kleiner feigling

timmyntc wrote: »

We do know how many are admitted to hospital. They will have been tested on admission so its all recorded.

As for the 2nd stat - its impossible to accurately know this because unless you test everyone you'll never know for sure. You can do representative mass testing in areas and make inferences but you can only get so accurate from that.

Think the point being made by OP is that they test positive for Covid on admission, but that may not be the reason for admission.
They could have been admitted for any other medical reason, but happen to test positive for Covid also.

Lumen

timmyntc wrote: »

We do know how many are admitted to hospital. They will have been tested on admission so its all recorded.

We don't know how many people are admitted to hospital suffering from COVID. We know how many people are admitted to hospital who have tested positive. One is a measure of disease, the other is a measure of infection.

We are in a situation where we are unlocking restrictions and possibly tolerating a higher level of infection because that is not expected to lead to a higher level of disease, because we have vaccinated many of those who are most at risk of disease from infection.

It is therefore important to know the level of disease. Confirmed cases are no good, because they are a measure of infection. They are simply a superset of acute hospital "cases". Deaths are no good, because of the stupid reporting system we have in this country. ICU admissions are useful, but laggy and unsatisfactory for other reasons, like the fact that we do care about sub-critical disease - even if people are not in ICU, they may be suffering from debilitating and potentially long-term health effects from this multi-organ disease.

So we're left with hospital admissions, and yet we still apparently don't know, a year into this thing, how many people we have in hospital being treated for significantly symptomatic COVID (i.e. the disease, not the infection).

timmyntc wrote: »

As for the 2nd stat - its impossible to accurately know this because unless you test everyone you'll never know for sure. You can do representative mass testing in areas and make inferences but you can only get so accurate from that.

Are we doing representative mass testing? I don't think so.

podgeandrodge

Stheno wrote: »

Seem to have them all,, there was an article in the indo (I think ) yesterday about needing to use up AZ before they expire

Saw that.

I saw a GP website which has a note saying if you wish to get a COVID-19 vaccine from us fill in a form, to be vaccinated soon as soon as possible.

I'm curious, do they have latitude to vaccinate people of all ages ahead of the HSE registrations?

ednwireland

is_that_so wrote: »

Donegal Gardai setting up hotline for COVID breaches. All for letting people make their best decisions during this but all sorts of "suboptimal" behaviour at work here


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/donegal-garda%C3%AD-set-up-hotline-for-covid-breaches-1.4554987

at least they've setup a second walk in test centre as well

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/second-walk-in-covid-19-test-centre-opens-in-donegal-as-infections-rise-in-the-county-1.4554920

Stheno

Wolf359f wrote: »

AZ lasts up to 6 months in a fridge, there's no vials hanging around that long.
From my understanding, GP's only get pfizer or moderna, not both.

Seems not

round 100 GP practices have been asked to use up stocks of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine before they go out of date, the Medical Independent (MI) has learned.

The stocks were delivered to practices earlier this month, shortly before changes in the vaccination rollout were introduced advising use of mRNA vaccines only in patients in vulnerable at-risk groups 4a and 7.

First dose vaccines for cohort 4a patients were due to start being received by GP practices this week, from 26 April.

Cohort 4 refers to those aged 16-69 with a medical condition that puts them at very-high risk of severe disease and death. GPs have been requested to vaccinate patients in this group with specific conditions only, namely poorly controlled diabetes; obesity (patients with a BMI over 40); chronic respiratory disease where a patient is on home oxygen or who has had a hospital admission in the past year.

Any patients who are not identified will be offered a vaccine as the programme progresses through subsequent allocation groups, according to the HSE.

Speaking to MI, IMO GP Chairperson Dr Denis McCauley said that practices with AstraZeneca in stock have been asked to administer them to patients before they go out of date.

https://www.medicalindependent.ie/gps-are-asked-to-use-astrazeneca-vaccines-before-expiry/

podgeandrodge

Stheno wrote: »

Seems not

ound 100 GP practices have been asked to use up stocks of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine before they go out of date, the Medical Independent (MI) has learned.

The stocks were delivered to practices earlier this month, shortly before changes in the vaccination rollout were introduced advising use of mRNA vaccines only in patients in vulnerable at-risk groups 4a and 7.

First dose vaccines for cohort 4a patients were due to start being received by GP practices this week, from 26 April.

Cohort 4 refers to those aged 16-69 with a medical condition that puts them at very-high risk of severe disease and death. GPs have been requested to vaccinate patients in this group with specific conditions only, namely poorly controlled diabetes; obesity (patients with a BMI over 40); chronic respiratory disease where a patient is on home oxygen or who has had a hospital admission in the past year.

Any patients who are not identified will be offered a vaccine as the programme progresses through subsequent allocation groups, according to the HSE.

Speaking to MI, IMO GP Chairperson Dr Denis McCauley said that practices with AstraZeneca in stock have been asked to administer them to patients before they go out of date.

https://www.medicalindependent.ie/gps-are-asked-to-use-astrazeneca-vaccines-before-expiry/

It's an interesting one. The HSE website states, for AZ, that "The shelf life of the unopened vials is less than 6 months".

So how have GP's got stock they need to use within a week.

Lucas Hood

Tested yesterday afternoon, result within 23 hours.

Negative thankfully.

kleiner feigling

Lumen wrote: »

Are we doing representative mass testing? I don't think so.

I wouldn't have though so since we are testing a) symptomatic people and b) asymptomatic people presenting at walk-in centres

I'd imagine the b) group are located in very specific areas of the country, and may represent certain types of people - those who are very careful and those who are not careful at all.

Personally, being young, fit, healthy and fully employed, I wouldn't have the time or inclination to go to a walk in centre.
And it's also possible the walk-ins who test positive had the virus in previous weeks and that is yielding the positive.

A lot of variables going on as per usual.

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

It's an interesting one. The HSE website states, for AZ, that "The shelf life of the unopened vials is less than 6 months".

So how have GP's got stock they need to use within a week.

Expiry on active pharmaceuticals tends to be from date of manufacture of the active component. Likely purification processes, fill and finish and batch release occur well after manufacturing date. Its quite probable vaccines are at least 1 month old, if not more, by the time they are released for use. Then add distribution etc and it would not be at all surprising to have only a couple of months remaining by the time they arrive here

kleiner feigling

Stheno wrote: »

Seems not



https://www.medicalindependent.ie/gps-are-asked-to-use-astrazeneca-vaccines-before-expiry/

Just noticing the morbid obesity inclusion there in Cohort 4.
I wonder about the detail of hospitalisation of patients with obesity who have BMIs of 30 or more.

It seems to be a significant comorbidity, but any HPRA data doesn't account for obese patients with BMI of 30-40, addressing only the >40 patients.
Has anyone seen that data at all?

From https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/cspd/ncps/obesity/
"Ireland has one of the highest levels of obesity in Europe, with 60% of adults and over one in five children and young people living with overweight and obesity."

MerlinSouthDub

Swabs

Sunday: 489, 2.72%
Monday:391, 2.92%
Tuesday: 362, 2.55%

Not bad

OwenM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

It's an interesting one. The HSE website states, for AZ, that "The shelf life of the unopened vials is less than 6 months".

So how have GP's got stock they need to use within a week.

Wouldn't an 'abundance of caution' dictate that they should all be binned, especially when 'we know' the shelf life is less than six months. :rolleyes:

Stheno

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Just noticing the morbid obesity inclusion there in Cohort 4.
I wonder about the detail of hospitalisation of patients with obesity who have BMIs of 30 or more.

It seems to be a significant comorbidity, but any HPRA data doesn't account for obese patients with BMI of 30-40, addressing only the >40 patients.
Has anyone seen that data at all?

From https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/cspd/ncps/obesity/
"Ireland has one of the highest levels of obesity in Europe, with 60% of adults and over one in five children and young people living with overweight and obesity."

Obesity of 35 and above are group 7

Vaccinated30

Lucas Hood wrote: »

Tested yesterday afternoon, result within 23 hours.

Negative thankfully.

I was tested at 1.30 yesterday, still waiting

kleiner feigling

Stheno wrote: »

Obesity of 35 and above are group 7

Yes, I see that.
I just wonder what % of admissions are made up of patients with BMI of 30 or greater.

Diabetes is given as a category, and BMI >40 is another category.

For example, in the French study below, of 124 patients in ICU "...84 (75.8%) were obese (BMI > 30 kg/m2), indicating a high incidence of obesity among patients admitted to intensive care for SARS-COV-2"

https://immunityageing.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12979-020-00212-x

I wonder why we omit so many obese patients from the data by not looking at anything between 30-40 BMI.

mohawk

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Saw that.

I saw a GP website which has a note saying if you wish to get a COVID-19 vaccine from us fill in a form, to be vaccinated soon as soon as possible.

I'm curious, do they have latitude to vaccinate people of all ages ahead of the HSE registrations?

Some GP practices are generating a wait list so that they have back up in case someone cancels an appointment or doesn’t turn up. Perhaps that is what this GP practice is doing.

is_that_so

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Yes, I see that.
I just wonder what % of admissions are made up of patients with BMI of 30 or greater.

Diabetes is given as a category, and BMI >40 is another category.

For example, in the French study below, of 124 patients in ICU "...84 (75.8%) were obese (BMI > 30 kg/m2), indicating a high incidence of obesity among patients admitted to intensive care for SARS-COV-2"

https://immunityageing.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12979-020-00212-x

I wonder why we omit so many obese patients from the data by not looking at anything between 30-40 BMI.

BMI in the 25-32 range is of limited use and can include fairly normal individuals, especially those with muscle mass. Despite the medical classification there is no reason to assume that those around 30 are in poor health otherwise.

Chris_5339762

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Swabs

Sunday: 489, 2.72%
Monday:391, 2.92%
Tuesday: 362, 2.55%

Not bad

Not bad at all. I'd expect a bit of a jump Wed and Thur, as people who were putting off getting testing for anything over the Bank Holiday filter through the system. Hopefully it'll be just a bit of a bounce though.

kleiner feigling

is_that_so wrote: »

BMI in the 25-32 range is of limited use and can include fairly normal individuals, especially those with muscle mass. Despite the medical classification there is no reason to assume that those around 30 are in poor health otherwise.

Yeah that's fair enough, I haven't suggested looking at anything below 30.
An as you say, people around the 30 mark can indeed be quite fit and healthy.

Surely mid to high 30s may have relevance, but when the data isn't available it's impossible to say.
And I'm sure I'm not the only one to have gained a few lbs during lockdown
- for many people weightloss might provide better protection from severe disease than mask-wearing would.

Again, difficult to say when the data is only available for morbidly obese patients.

OwenM

Stheno wrote: »

Obesity of 35 and above are group 7

BMI >35 and <40 I think. BMI 40 or greater were moved to cohort 4 several weeks ago.