Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

kleiner feigling

timmyntc wrote: »

We do know how many are admitted to hospital. They will have been tested on admission so its all recorded.

As for the 2nd stat - its impossible to accurately know this because unless you test everyone you'll never know for sure. You can do representative mass testing in areas and make inferences but you can only get so accurate from that.

Think the point being made by OP is that they test positive for Covid on admission, but that may not be the reason for admission.
They could have been admitted for any other medical reason, but happen to test positive for Covid also.

Lumen

timmyntc wrote: »

We do know how many are admitted to hospital. They will have been tested on admission so its all recorded.

We don't know how many people are admitted to hospital suffering from COVID. We know how many people are admitted to hospital who have tested positive. One is a measure of disease, the other is a measure of infection.

We are in a situation where we are unlocking restrictions and possibly tolerating a higher level of infection because that is not expected to lead to a higher level of disease, because we have vaccinated many of those who are most at risk of disease from infection.

It is therefore important to know the level of disease. Confirmed cases are no good, because they are a measure of infection. They are simply a superset of acute hospital "cases". Deaths are no good, because of the stupid reporting system we have in this country. ICU admissions are useful, but laggy and unsatisfactory for other reasons, like the fact that we do care about sub-critical disease - even if people are not in ICU, they may be suffering from debilitating and potentially long-term health effects from this multi-organ disease.

So we're left with hospital admissions, and yet we still apparently don't know, a year into this thing, how many people we have in hospital being treated for significantly symptomatic COVID (i.e. the disease, not the infection).

timmyntc wrote: »

As for the 2nd stat - its impossible to accurately know this because unless you test everyone you'll never know for sure. You can do representative mass testing in areas and make inferences but you can only get so accurate from that.

Are we doing representative mass testing? I don't think so.

podgeandrodge

Stheno wrote: »

Seem to have them all,, there was an article in the indo (I think ) yesterday about needing to use up AZ before they expire

Saw that.

I saw a GP website which has a note saying if you wish to get a COVID-19 vaccine from us fill in a form, to be vaccinated soon as soon as possible.

I'm curious, do they have latitude to vaccinate people of all ages ahead of the HSE registrations?

ednwireland

is_that_so wrote: »

Donegal Gardai setting up hotline for COVID breaches. All for letting people make their best decisions during this but all sorts of "suboptimal" behaviour at work here


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/donegal-garda%C3%AD-set-up-hotline-for-covid-breaches-1.4554987

at least they've setup a second walk in test centre as well

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/second-walk-in-covid-19-test-centre-opens-in-donegal-as-infections-rise-in-the-county-1.4554920

Stheno

Wolf359f wrote: »

AZ lasts up to 6 months in a fridge, there's no vials hanging around that long.
From my understanding, GP's only get pfizer or moderna, not both.

Seems not

round 100 GP practices have been asked to use up stocks of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine before they go out of date, the Medical Independent (MI) has learned.

The stocks were delivered to practices earlier this month, shortly before changes in the vaccination rollout were introduced advising use of mRNA vaccines only in patients in vulnerable at-risk groups 4a and 7.

First dose vaccines for cohort 4a patients were due to start being received by GP practices this week, from 26 April.

Cohort 4 refers to those aged 16-69 with a medical condition that puts them at very-high risk of severe disease and death. GPs have been requested to vaccinate patients in this group with specific conditions only, namely poorly controlled diabetes; obesity (patients with a BMI over 40); chronic respiratory disease where a patient is on home oxygen or who has had a hospital admission in the past year.

Any patients who are not identified will be offered a vaccine as the programme progresses through subsequent allocation groups, according to the HSE.

Speaking to MI, IMO GP Chairperson Dr Denis McCauley said that practices with AstraZeneca in stock have been asked to administer them to patients before they go out of date.

https://www.medicalindependent.ie/gps-are-asked-to-use-astrazeneca-vaccines-before-expiry/

podgeandrodge

Stheno wrote: »

Seems not

ound 100 GP practices have been asked to use up stocks of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine before they go out of date, the Medical Independent (MI) has learned.

The stocks were delivered to practices earlier this month, shortly before changes in the vaccination rollout were introduced advising use of mRNA vaccines only in patients in vulnerable at-risk groups 4a and 7.

First dose vaccines for cohort 4a patients were due to start being received by GP practices this week, from 26 April.

Cohort 4 refers to those aged 16-69 with a medical condition that puts them at very-high risk of severe disease and death. GPs have been requested to vaccinate patients in this group with specific conditions only, namely poorly controlled diabetes; obesity (patients with a BMI over 40); chronic respiratory disease where a patient is on home oxygen or who has had a hospital admission in the past year.

Any patients who are not identified will be offered a vaccine as the programme progresses through subsequent allocation groups, according to the HSE.

Speaking to MI, IMO GP Chairperson Dr Denis McCauley said that practices with AstraZeneca in stock have been asked to administer them to patients before they go out of date.

https://www.medicalindependent.ie/gps-are-asked-to-use-astrazeneca-vaccines-before-expiry/

It's an interesting one. The HSE website states, for AZ, that "The shelf life of the unopened vials is less than 6 months".

So how have GP's got stock they need to use within a week.

Lucas Hood

Tested yesterday afternoon, result within 23 hours.

Negative thankfully.

kleiner feigling

Lumen wrote: »

Are we doing representative mass testing? I don't think so.

I wouldn't have though so since we are testing a) symptomatic people and b) asymptomatic people presenting at walk-in centres

I'd imagine the b) group are located in very specific areas of the country, and may represent certain types of people - those who are very careful and those who are not careful at all.

Personally, being young, fit, healthy and fully employed, I wouldn't have the time or inclination to go to a walk in centre.
And it's also possible the walk-ins who test positive had the virus in previous weeks and that is yielding the positive.

A lot of variables going on as per usual.

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

It's an interesting one. The HSE website states, for AZ, that "The shelf life of the unopened vials is less than 6 months".

So how have GP's got stock they need to use within a week.

Expiry on active pharmaceuticals tends to be from date of manufacture of the active component. Likely purification processes, fill and finish and batch release occur well after manufacturing date. Its quite probable vaccines are at least 1 month old, if not more, by the time they are released for use. Then add distribution etc and it would not be at all surprising to have only a couple of months remaining by the time they arrive here

kleiner feigling

Stheno wrote: »

Seems not



https://www.medicalindependent.ie/gps-are-asked-to-use-astrazeneca-vaccines-before-expiry/

Just noticing the morbid obesity inclusion there in Cohort 4.
I wonder about the detail of hospitalisation of patients with obesity who have BMIs of 30 or more.

It seems to be a significant comorbidity, but any HPRA data doesn't account for obese patients with BMI of 30-40, addressing only the >40 patients.
Has anyone seen that data at all?

From https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/cspd/ncps/obesity/
"Ireland has one of the highest levels of obesity in Europe, with 60% of adults and over one in five children and young people living with overweight and obesity."

MerlinSouthDub

Swabs

Sunday: 489, 2.72%
Monday:391, 2.92%
Tuesday: 362, 2.55%

Not bad

OwenM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

It's an interesting one. The HSE website states, for AZ, that "The shelf life of the unopened vials is less than 6 months".

So how have GP's got stock they need to use within a week.

Wouldn't an 'abundance of caution' dictate that they should all be binned, especially when 'we know' the shelf life is less than six months. :rolleyes:

Stheno

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Just noticing the morbid obesity inclusion there in Cohort 4.
I wonder about the detail of hospitalisation of patients with obesity who have BMIs of 30 or more.

It seems to be a significant comorbidity, but any HPRA data doesn't account for obese patients with BMI of 30-40, addressing only the >40 patients.
Has anyone seen that data at all?

From https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/cspd/ncps/obesity/
"Ireland has one of the highest levels of obesity in Europe, with 60% of adults and over one in five children and young people living with overweight and obesity."

Obesity of 35 and above are group 7

Vaccinated30

Lucas Hood wrote: »

Tested yesterday afternoon, result within 23 hours.

Negative thankfully.

I was tested at 1.30 yesterday, still waiting

kleiner feigling

Stheno wrote: »

Obesity of 35 and above are group 7

Yes, I see that.
I just wonder what % of admissions are made up of patients with BMI of 30 or greater.

Diabetes is given as a category, and BMI >40 is another category.

For example, in the French study below, of 124 patients in ICU "...84 (75.8%) were obese (BMI > 30 kg/m2), indicating a high incidence of obesity among patients admitted to intensive care for SARS-COV-2"

https://immunityageing.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12979-020-00212-x

I wonder why we omit so many obese patients from the data by not looking at anything between 30-40 BMI.

mohawk

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Saw that.

I saw a GP website which has a note saying if you wish to get a COVID-19 vaccine from us fill in a form, to be vaccinated soon as soon as possible.

I'm curious, do they have latitude to vaccinate people of all ages ahead of the HSE registrations?

Some GP practices are generating a wait list so that they have back up in case someone cancels an appointment or doesn’t turn up. Perhaps that is what this GP practice is doing.

is_that_so

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Yes, I see that.
I just wonder what % of admissions are made up of patients with BMI of 30 or greater.

Diabetes is given as a category, and BMI >40 is another category.

For example, in the French study below, of 124 patients in ICU "...84 (75.8%) were obese (BMI > 30 kg/m2), indicating a high incidence of obesity among patients admitted to intensive care for SARS-COV-2"

https://immunityageing.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12979-020-00212-x

I wonder why we omit so many obese patients from the data by not looking at anything between 30-40 BMI.

BMI in the 25-32 range is of limited use and can include fairly normal individuals, especially those with muscle mass. Despite the medical classification there is no reason to assume that those around 30 are in poor health otherwise.

Chris_5339762

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Swabs

Sunday: 489, 2.72%
Monday:391, 2.92%
Tuesday: 362, 2.55%

Not bad

Not bad at all. I'd expect a bit of a jump Wed and Thur, as people who were putting off getting testing for anything over the Bank Holiday filter through the system. Hopefully it'll be just a bit of a bounce though.

kleiner feigling

is_that_so wrote: »

BMI in the 25-32 range is of limited use and can include fairly normal individuals, especially those with muscle mass. Despite the medical classification there is no reason to assume that those around 30 are in poor health otherwise.

Yeah that's fair enough, I haven't suggested looking at anything below 30.
An as you say, people around the 30 mark can indeed be quite fit and healthy.

Surely mid to high 30s may have relevance, but when the data isn't available it's impossible to say.
And I'm sure I'm not the only one to have gained a few lbs during lockdown
- for many people weightloss might provide better protection from severe disease than mask-wearing would.

Again, difficult to say when the data is only available for morbidly obese patients.

OwenM

Stheno wrote: »

Obesity of 35 and above are group 7

BMI >35 and <40 I think. BMI 40 or greater were moved to cohort 4 several weeks ago.

Ficheall

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40280642.html
****e incoming flight tracing SHOCKER.

Vaccinated30

Vaccinated30 wrote: »

I was tested at 1.30 yesterday, still waiting

Negative at 3.30

is_that_so

Ficheall wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40280642.html
****e incoming flight tracing SHOCKER.

Notwithstanding, the SHOCK Catherine wants the country shut down and every country in the UN on the list for MHQ! No major alarm to that if people went home and isolated. Isn't she a bit late with all of this anyway? In a month or so we could well be looking at 70% vaccinated, with half that fully vaccinated.

Ficheall

is_that_so wrote: »

Notwithstanding, the SHOCK Catherine wants the country shut down and every country in the UN on the list for MHQ! No major alarm to that if people went home and isolated. Isn't she a bit late with all of this anyway? In a month or so we could well be looking at 70% vaccinated, with half that fully vaccinated.

Oh, absolutely too late, and nothing surprising about it. And I'm sure some will have gone home and isolated, and some won't.

70% seems optimistic to me, but I'll keep my fingers crossed that you turn out to be right!

Turtwig

is_that_so wrote: »

Notwithstanding, the SHOCK Catherine wants the country shut down and every country in the UN on the list for MHQ! No major alarm to that if people went home and isolated. Isn't she a bit late with all of this anyway? In a month or so we could well be looking at 70% vaccinated, with half that fully vaccinated.

We need a safeguard that ideally doesn't require MHQ to be able swiftly identify and contain any imported cases of concern or consequence. Without that we will be at the whims of the rest of world's control of the pandemic and mother nature. Surveillance is the dam to prevent a potential flood. I'd rather have the dam built than rely on the prayer the flood never happens. If we had to go back into lockdown because of shoddy surveillance that would be a gross failure. This is also an opportunity to make Ireland more resilient to future pandemics gaining a foothold here. Covid has shown just how vulnerable we are.

is_that_so

Turtwig wrote: »

We need a safeguard that ideally doesn't require MHQ to be able swiftly identify and contain any imported cases of concern or consequence. Without that we will be at the whims of the rest of world's control of the pandemic and mother nature. Surveillance is the dam to prevent a potential flood. I'd rather have the dam built than rely on the prayer the flood never happens. If we had to go back into lockdown because of shoddy surveillance that would be a gross failure. This is also an opportunity to make Ireland more resilient to future pandemics gaining a foothold here. Covid has shown just how vulnerable we are.

I think we have the makings of that in our formal testing system and the walk-ins. Rapid testing also needs to be part of that in some way. The rest we know is all about restrictions. The data of those well ahead in vaccinations suggests that it is likely to be a minor issue anyway.

Chris_5339762

383 cases today

Edit: I was first for once!!!

TheDoctor

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

383 cases today

Edit: I was first for once!!!

And you get a like

paulie21

Sadly 2 deaths announced also

Vicxas

paulie21 wrote: »

Sadly 2 deaths announced also

Did they say from when?

paulie21

Vicxas wrote: »

Did they say from when?

Haven't seen that reported anywhere yet

is_that_so

Padraig McLochlainn response to COVID hotline in Donegal.

A Sinn Féin TD for Co Donegal has said the establishment of a dedicated hotline to report Covid breaches to Gardaí in the county is "a bit of an exaggeration" in terms of the challenge of managing the virus in the county.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ulster/2021/0504/1213676-donegal-covid-cases/

blowitupref

7-day average in cases 457 (it was 458 last Tuesday)

7-day average reported deaths is 4 (it was 6 last Tuesday)

WoollyRedHat

Of the cases notified today:

194 are men and 189 are women
79% are under 45 years of age
The median age is 28 years old
129 in Dublin, 40 in Kildare, 32 in Meath, 25 in Donegal, 25 in Louth and the remaining 132 cases are spread across 21 other counties.
As of 8am today, 144 patients with Covid-19 are hospitalised, including 41 in ICU.

10 additional hospitalisations have been made in the past 24 hours.

manofwisdom

RTÉ went the extra mile with their fake news this evening.



Just 4,000 added onto to possible/probable death number.

Jim_Hodge

manofwisdom wrote: »

RTÉ went the extra mile with their fake news this evening.



Just 4,000 added onto to possible/probable death number.

Oh the indignation ! Have you never entered a typo?

saabsaab

The median age of those getting Covid is now 28. Perhaps we should vaccinate the 19-30 age group next for everyone's sake.

bloopy

saabsaab wrote: »

The median age of those getting Covid is now 28. Perhaps we should vaccinate the 19-30 age group next for everyone's sake.

Nope.
Continue vaccinating the groups who might actually have a serious outcome from the virus.

eagle eye

Three cases in my kids school. A parent of one contacted the principle today to let her know as she was surprised the principle wasn't in contact with the family. The principle didn't know about it despite it being 60 hours since the result. Nothing from the HSE.

podgeandrodge

eagle eye wrote: »

Three cases in my kids school. A parent of one contacted the principle today to let her know as she was surprised the principle wasn't in contact with the family. The principle didn't know about it despite it being 60 hours since the result. Nothing from the HSE.

You are happy with your kids in school now?

podgeandrodge

Deleted User wrote: »

Expiry on active pharmaceuticals tends to be from date of manufacture of the active component. Likely purification processes, fill and finish and batch release occur well after manufacturing date. Its quite probable vaccines are at least 1 month old, if not more, by the time they are released for use. Then add distribution etc and it would not be at all surprising to have only a couple of months remaining by the time they arrive here

Yeah possibly. Something is not right with the timing though. If AZ lasts for 6 months, and "Dr Denis McCauley, chair of the IMO General Practitioner Committee, said GPs had “a week or so” to administer the vaccines to ensure that they were not kept in fridges beyond their expiry date".

A week. That would imply that some stocks were delivered last December. I don't recall, but maybe that happened.

saabsaab

bloopy wrote: »

Nope.
Continue vaccinating the groups who might actually have a serious outcome from the virus.

It may protect the more vulnerable better to stop the superspreaders first?

podgeandrodge

AstraZeneca has so far delivered just 31 million of the 120 million doses it had promised to the EU. (According to papers last week).

With the news that the EU Commission is not renewing contracts for Astra and J&J from next year, will the EU continue to get the remaining stocks of AZ for the rest of this year, even when MRNA vaccines become plentiful?

Ficheall

saabsaab wrote: »

It may protect the more vulnerable better to stop the superspreaders first?

You want to reward them for being more reckless? You'd want to be pretty sure the vaccinations prevent transmissiblity a LOT before giving the spreaders even more perceived invincibility at the expense of the vulnerable...

Happydays2020

podgeandrodge wrote: »

AstraZeneca has so far delivered just 31 million of the 120 million doses it had promised to the EU. (According to papers last week).

With the news that the EU Commission is not renewing contracts for Astra and J&J from next year, will the EU continue to get the remaining stocks of AZ for the rest of this year, even when MRNA vaccines become plentiful?

Presumably they are needed now in terms of getting mass vaccination done sooner and being able to taper off State supports.

manofwisdom

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Oh the indignation ! Have you never entered a typo?

Typos a bit different this was Live on TV where every detail should be checked fully before published to the public.

bloopy

saabsaab wrote: »

It may protect the more vulnerable better to stop the superspreaders first?

Nope.
If the vaccine preevents serious illness, you give it to those most at risk of serious illness first. Not to those most likely to just brush it off.
Besides, at this stage there are a hell of a lot more under 30's than vulnerable left to vaccinate.
Do you suggest the vulnerable stay at home until the healthy are vaccinated, while still at risk from potentially catching the virus at any moment? That seems a bit cruel.

podgeandrodge

JTMan wrote: »

Washington DC are using free beer and no appointment necessary to get the "not sures" and "could not be bothered" out for a vaccine.

https://twitter.com/MayorBowser/status/1389636383443197954

Can you imagine Dr. Tony aligning vaccine shots with alcohol as an inducer :pac:

podgeandrodge

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Presumably they are needed now in terms of getting mass vaccination done sooner and being able to taper off State supports.

Not 100% sure, weren't there reports that we could be awash with MRNA vaccines by late Summer? They'll never use all the Astra contracted numbers if that is the case?

TheDoctor

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Can you imagine Dr. Tony aligning vaccine shots with alcohol as an inducer :pac:

The vaccine loves alcohol