Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

AlekSmart

arccosh wrote: »

everywhere just quotes percentages.... so I had to do the actual maths

SNIP/

SNIP/

That would be 256 people in Ireland under 40, in ICU with COVID.

There are also mentions of a reduction of ICU beds being available which in turn would reduce my numbers, but as mentioned before, it would still be around the 200 mark.

edit: more detailed BMJ article on Brazil with detailed numbers from 1st April https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n879

That gloomy Irish ICU forecast can to a great extent be viewed against the ICU provision figures recommended by the HSE themselves in 2009.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/publications/clinical-strategy-and-programmes/towards-excellence-in-critical-care-report.pdf

RECOMMENDATIONS

R3 The number of critical care beds should be increased by 45% from 289 to 418 beds.

This will need to increase sequentially to 579 over the period 2010 to 2020.

R4 The potential role of cross border relationships should be reviewed further to determine where synergies may be exploited.

R5 All critical care units should work towards a minimum capacity of eight beds.R6Coronary Care bedsshould not be located within a critical care environment

The sitiation then pertaining in 2009 was...

Current Situation Snapshot

–Number and Configuration of Beds : There are 289 funded, open, critical care beds in Ireland13% of critical care beds are situated in units which also contain coronary care beds Both early (unplanned) and delayed discharges are common to most critical care units.

In June 2008 278 patients were refused admission to critical care In June 2008 20% of HDU beds were providing ICU (Level 3) care

Back in 2019 we had 255 ICU beds available....

https://www.hse.ie/eng/about/who/cspd/ncps/critical-care/critical-care-capacity-planning/national-adult-critical-care-capacity-census-2019-report.pdf

On 30thSeptember 2019 the National Adult Critical Care Capacity Census processidentified anoperational complement of 255 adult critical care (Level3 ICU and Level2 HDU) beds.

Many people are fond of saying "Do the Math",but certainly the HSE's performance does not sit easily with any mathematical analysis in ICU provision terms.

Reading through the various recommendations etc,is very visible evidence of a structured HSE "Kick the can down the road" approach.

3b. Department of Health Capacity Review2018 In 2018, the Health Service Capacity ReviewReport was published by the Department of Health.

The 2018 Capacity Review recommends increased acutecare capacity and,in particular,recommends a step-change 80% increase in national adult critical care bed capacity*.

(*An adult critical care capacityincrease from 240 beds to 430 beds is recommended by2031. Department of HealthHEALTH SERVICE CAPACITY REVIEW2018:REVIEW OF HEALTH DEMAND AND CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS IN IRELAND TO 2031Main Report,Section 8.2 Recommendations, Section
8.2.1 Baseline Recommendations, Table 28 Summary ofCapacity Requirements with no Service Reconfiguration,'Acute Care' 'Sector' 'ACC' (AdultCritical Care) Beds, p106)

The HSE needed 579 ICU beds in 2009.

The HSE had 255 ICU beds in 2019.

The HSE may get 430 ICU beds by 2031.

Covid is no longer the Public Health Emergency.

The HSE IS the Public Health Emergency.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/media/pressrel/hse-2021-national-service-plan-published.html

€20.6 Billion budget for Healthcare !

But yet,even with the Pandemic now being THE Health Service Focus,we can only aspire to fund 321 ICU beds by end of 2021....

Priority Areas for Action 2021Increase critical care bed capacity  Increase the baseline of 255 critical care beds by permanently funding the 40 additional adult critical care beds opened in 2020 and by adding a further 26 beds at University Hospital Limerick, Tallaght University Hospital and the Mater Misericordiae University Hospital (to bring the total number of adult critical care beds to 321 by end of 2021)

Progress,like peace,comes dropping slowly.

drkpower

kwestfan08 wrote: »

How anyone can stand over having tough restrictions after the elderly and at risk have been vaccinated is beyond me. Why can’t they let the younger people just get on with it at that stage? Who is at risk if the at risk are vaccinated?

+1

Pre-Covid, any state with the restrictions we have here now would have been widely considered as a failed state.

To justify such severe restrictions, the health threat needs to be equally severe. That is simply no longer the case once the most at risk groups have been vaccinated. The social contract we ‘entered into’ was to protect those groups, and to protect the health service from collapse; we have effectively done that. The justification no longer exists.

That is no to say that no restrictions are reasonable; but the restrictions must match the threat; they don’t (anymore).

Graham

niallo27 wrote: »

This made me laugh, you actually think this is a substantial easing of restrictions. Seriously, you have to be taken the piss.

and yet again

Graham wrote: »

are we back to playing "things that nobody said" again?

:rolleyes:

AlekSmart

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

That won't convince some people that they aren't Jews living in the Lodz ghetto in 1941.

You appear well read in historical terms,so when it comes to convincing people, I'm sure you'll recognize the rationale behind this quotation from that era....

“It would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle.They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”

Hellrazer

gozunda wrote: »

Well leaving aside the mad stuff about black masses and whatever.

The old 1990s death metal in me kicking in again!!!

It would appear the government has more than once publicly gone against the advice coming from NPHET. interestingly enough with mixed results.

Leo is the only real time I saw a TD stand up to them and now hes even been put in his box and remains fairly quite on everything covid related.

What I dont get is people not understanding that we have a way out of the pandemic via vaccination and yes that may take some time. But fuq it - its the only real solution at this stage to what has already happened here and is agsin now happening in other countries with a rollercoaster of rises in infection, decline and rise again. Its a fuker of a virus to deal with at best.

Im with you 100% on this one - vaccinations are the only way out but we have an incompetent idiot running the roll out of things something I pointed out in December.

All well and good having a vaccine approved. However we still have Tony Holohan , Stephen Donnelly ,Mehole etc administering the rolling out of it.

We`ll be even more ****ed letting this lot get near the roll out of this.

Why cant we self approve Sputnik - theres nothing at all stopping us doing that and ordering in 10 million doses and getting this virus gone forever.

Why cant the government move away from the EU agreement and go it alone? We`d vaccinate the entire country for what a month of PUP and wage subsidies are costing us.

Because we have a health minister that has no balls and while he walks the walk and talks the talk he actually gets **** all done.

arccosh

AlekSmart wrote: »

Covid is no longer the Public Health Emergency.

The HSE IS the Public Health Emergency.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/media/pressrel/hse-2021-national-service-plan-published.html

Pretty much...

Lockdown is necessary, but only because of years of incompetence and mismanagement in the HSE

as mentioned before and people breeze over , there are protocols in place for the Irish to get UK assistance in any major emergency incident because Ireland's health system is not fit for purpose

gozunda

MrMischief wrote: »

ExactlyNo fcuking plan is exactly the point - one year on and still we have outbreaks in clinical settings & food processing plants but lets fix that by shutting up shop and not adsressing the real issues.

I'd disagree. The course of the virus has been highly dynamic and that has been clearly seen here and in other countries with the rise, fall and rise again of the rate of infection. So no - there's no one plan to fit all scenarios with no deviations allowed.

It remains the rate of infection here has declined significantly since the **** show at Christmas which saw us getting the World Prize for the highest rate of infections.

Yes there are still some outbreaks mainly in places where social distancing is difficult. In meat plants it haz been linked to workers were living in shared accommodation and using shared transport. Afaik any such facilities are now closed down pronto once an outbreak occurs.

Clinical setting outbreaks have fallen off the cliff since vaccinations of HCWs etc.

And yes we have restrictions to keep the rate of infection down so hospitals can continue to treat those who get seriously ill with covid and begin to increase other services. All that whilst rolling out the biggest vaccination programme in the history of the state.

These are the 'real' issues. And yeah the restrictions are being rolled back albeit slowly. And that's where we're at.

the kelt

arccosh wrote: »

Pretty much...

Lockdown is necessary, but only because of years of incompetence and mismanagement in the HSE

as mentioned before and people breeze over , there are protocols in place for the Irish to get UK assistance in any major emergency incident because Ireland's health system is not fit for purpose

So essentially a health system not fit for purpose and the current political leader of the country the man who essentially established it.

Multipass

Multipass wrote: »

Shh, that’s far too sensible. The worried need protecting too.

This 82 year old Granny in Scotland got fined despite being vaccinated.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9465935/Scottish-grandmother-82-given-60-anti-social-Covid-fine.html

Micky 32

Sorry if already posted but LOL:


https://twitter.com/jrd0000/status/1381895336256475140?s=21


https://gript.ie/claire-byrne-doom-porn-latest-3-5-years-of-restrictions/?fbclid=IwAR01TRodBwceTeDZAhqjno_PyuH1AtsxIt5OtV5SxDD0zYpt0EnKMfdoACQ

“Doom porn”.

drkpower

gozunda wrote: »

I'd disagree. The course of the virus has been highly dynamic and that has been clearly seen here and in other countries with the rise, fall and rise again of the rate of infection. So no - there's no one plan to fit all scenarios with no deviations allowed.

It remains the rate of infection here has declined significantly since the **** show at Christmas which saw us getting the World Prize for the highest rate of infections.

Yes there are still some outbreaks mainly in places where social distancing is difficult. In meat plants it haz been linked to workers were living in shared accommodation and using shared transport. Afaik any such facilities are now closed down pronto once an outbreak occurs.

Clinical setting outbreaks have fallen off the cliff since vaccinations of HCWs etc.

And yes we have restrictions to keep the rate of infection down so hospitals can continue to treat those who get seriously ill with covid and begin to increase other services. All that whilst rolling out the biggest vaccination programme in the history of the state.

These are the 'real' issues. And yeah the restrictions are being rolled back albeit slowly. And that's where we're at.

If allowing the healthcare system to manage illness and roll out public health measures was a justification for fundamental restrictions on personal liberty, we should have been in lockdown for the last few decades.

I worked on the frontline of the Irish health system in the 90s/00s, and it was - and still is - constantly on the verge of metaphorical,if not literal collapse.

Hellrazer

Micky 32 wrote: »

Sorry if already posted but LOL:


https://twitter.com/jrd0000/status/1381895336256475140?s=21


https://gript.ie/claire-byrne-doom-porn-latest-3-5-years-of-restrictions/?fbclid=IwAR01TRodBwceTeDZAhqjno_PyuH1AtsxIt5OtV5SxDD0zYpt0EnKMfdoACQ

“Doom porn”.

Why is that idiot getting airtime?

FintanMcluskey

Hellrazer wrote: »

Why is that idiot getting airtime?

She works for RTE

Hellrazer

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

She works for RTE

Brilliant!!!

Micky 32

Hellrazer wrote: »

Why is that idiot getting airtime?

I actually overheard the conversation on the radio and I’d swear she was on the verge of an orgasm when he was rambling on about the years of restrictions.

scamalert

Micky 32 wrote: »

Sorry if already posted but LOL:


https://twitter.com/jrd0000/status/1381895336256475140?s=21


https://gript.ie/claire-byrne-doom-porn-latest-3-5-years-of-restrictions/?fbclid=IwAR01TRodBwceTeDZAhqjno_PyuH1AtsxIt5OtV5SxDD0zYpt0EnKMfdoACQ

“Doom porn”.

He sounds like irish version of retarded donald trump.

Sharpyshoot

Micky 32 wrote: »

I actually overheard the conversation on the radio and I’d swear she was on the verge of an orgasm when he was rambling on about the years of restrictions.

There was a small squirt or else it was brake squeal in the van.

the kelt

Micky 32 wrote: »

Sorry if already posted but LOL:


https://twitter.com/jrd0000/status/1381895336256475140?s=21


https://gript.ie/claire-byrne-doom-porn-latest-3-5-years-of-restrictions/?fbclid=IwAR01TRodBwceTeDZAhqjno_PyuH1AtsxIt5OtV5SxDD0zYpt0EnKMfdoACQ

“Doom porn”.

The King of Zero, "new variants" and "years of restrictions" all in the one go!!!

That'll be too much for a few posters on here

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

So that makes the numbers unfaithful then. Fair enough, I understand. The numbers are our national official numbers, I only added them together and compared...

I see these numbers in a positive way. There is no drama killer to worry about and never was. Or nowhere near they have been painting it...

Not only were the figures you were working from incomplete for 2020, they do not take into account that you were not working with a complete year for Covid-19 deaths. Ireland did not have it`s first Covid death until March 11th.


From complete figures from Sweden for 2020 deaths I believe we can see clearly just how much a drama killer Covid-19 can be.
Compared to 2019, for 2020 their excess deaths were 9,175 (+10.37%). For the average five year period 2015-2019 excess deaths were 6,979 (+7.7%).


Even that does not show excess deaths for a complete year, as Sweden did not have it`s first Covid-19 death until 11th March 2020 where for the first 12 weeks they had lower deaths than the average.

Akesh

The only hope now is that Robert Watt manages to reign these megalomaniacs who are completely out of their depth and will damage the ability of the government to deal with future mutations and pandemics.

There is no going back on restrictions now, they have burnt through their goodwill aided by the media giving a platform to ISAG and the hysterical fearmongering that we hear, see and read everyday.

Polling seems to indicate that Fine Gael are still at 30% after this mess. Just goes to show you that Irish people clearly have an appetite and appreciation for incompetence. No wonder we are a s**y little country begging for FDI at every corner of the world.

darem93

Akesh wrote: »

Polling seems to indicate that Fine Gael are still at 30% after this mess. Just goes to show you that Irish people clearly have an appetite and appreciation for incompetence. No wonder we are a s**y little country begging for FDI at every corner of the world.

Yeah this is what I can't understand. It seems that FG haven't lost that initial pandemic bounce in the polls, even after the government's woeful handling of events since then.

FF appear to be taking the entire brunt of this mess (and by god do they deserve every bit of criticism they're receiving), but I don't understand why FG are being let off the hook in any way either. Not taking the Taoiseach role was clearly just another clever and calculated move from Leo.

Lumen

Akesh wrote: »

The only hope now is that Robert Watt manages to reign these megalomaniacs who are completely out of their depth and will damage the ability of the government to deal with future mutations and pandemics.

There is no going back on restrictions now, they have burnt through their goodwill aided by the media giving a platform to ISAG and the hysterical fearmongering that we hear, see and read everyday.

Polling seems to indicate that Fine Gael are still at 30% after this mess. Just goes to show you that Irish people clearly have an appetite and appreciation for incompetence. No wonder we are a s**y little country begging for FDI at every corner of the world.

Recently/peak-end bias suggests that most people will have a positive view of this once they've been vaccinated and things have opened back up.

This is why Boris Johnson is doing so well in the polls despite over 100k preventable deaths in the UK.

For this reason, the political pressure will be focused on not screwing up near the end.

facehugger99

I met some neighbors of ours this week. They are early 70's and have gotten their first shot this week and their second in 4 weeks time.

They cheerfully told me they are looking to get away to Spain in May after the second shot - €200 return flights into Barcelona apparently.

You have to laugh.

Fair dues to them for heading off but these are the demographic we've been told to put our lives on hold and destroy the economy for and they are going to jet off to the sun next month - no doubt Leo will "look at" non-essential retail for us at some stage in May.

Meanwhile we'll have the usual cohort cheering on the restrictions while the hospitals and ICUs are basically empty and the bill is racking up week on week.

Banana Republic of a country.

Corholio

Micky 32 wrote: »

Sorry if already posted but LOL:


https://twitter.com/jrd0000/status/1381895336256475140?s=21


https://gript.ie/claire-byrne-doom-porn-latest-3-5-years-of-restrictions/?fbclid=IwAR01TRodBwceTeDZAhqjno_PyuH1AtsxIt5OtV5SxDD0zYpt0EnKMfdoACQ

“Doom porn”.

As much as I'm not a fan of McConkey at all, any link to Gript just sours it all. There's better ways to disagree than using McGuirk and his slimy ilk.

Seweryn

charlie14 wrote: »

Not only were the figures you were working from incomplete for 2020, they do not take into account that you were not working with a complete year for Covid-19 deaths. Ireland did not have it`s first Covid death until March 11th.

I can't understand what is your point here actually. The figures are as complete as they can be (as of yesterday), i.e. more than 3 months after the end of the year. Also, I have made an allowance of 1k additional deaths for 2020, just in case. Did you miss that? Should I have made that 1.2k? 1.5k? More?

And what difference does it make when the first Cov. death happened? If we had the 2.3k claimed deaths in 2020 and they were excess deaths, it should be somehow visible in the numbers.

charlie14 wrote: »

From complete figures from Sweden for 2020 deaths I believe we can see clearly just how much a drama killer Covid-19 can be.
Compared to 2019, for 2020 their excess deaths were 9,175 (+10.37%). For the average five year period 2015-2019 excess deaths were 6,979 (+7.7%).


Even that does not show excess deaths for a complete year, as Sweden did not have it`s first Covid-19 death until 11th March 2020 where for the first 12 weeks they had lower deaths than the average.

This is the second time you bringing Swedish statistics into this conversation. Trying to prove Irish statistics or "my" numbers incorrect? These are the numbers, they are summarised and compared together, that is all you can do to them at this stage. Unless you have a different way of adding and comparing figures?

Corholio

Corholio wrote: »

As much as I'm not a fan of McConkey at all, any link to Gript just sours it all. There's better ways to disagree than using McGuirk and his slimy ilk.

Do you have a link to another publication or person you find more palatable who is challenging the orthodoxy?

It seems that anyone who does so is immediately cast as "far-right" in any case.

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

I can't understand what is your point here actually. The figures are as complete as they can be (as of yesterday), i.e. more than 3 months after the end of the year. Also, I have made an allowance of 1k additional deaths for 2020, just in case. Did you miss that? Should I have made that 1.2k? 1.5k? More?

And what difference does it make when the first Cov. death happened? If we had the 2.3k claimed deaths in 2020 and they were excess deaths, it should be somehow visible in the numbers.


This is the second time you bringing Swedish statistics into this conversation. Trying to prove Irish statistics or "my" numbers incorrect? These are the numbers, they are summarised and compared together, that is all you can do to them at this stage. Unless you have a different way of adding and comparing figures?

If the figures for 2020 are complete why add this extra 1,000 ?


It makes a difference because you are attempting to show there have been no excess year deaths from Covid-19 based on figures (complete or not) that are only for the year ending 31st Dec, when the complete year for Covid-19 deaths is from 11th March 2020 (Ireland`s first death) until 11th March 2021.



You made the statement that Covid-19 was no "drama killer". I pointed out to you where it was using Sweden, whose figures from posting on another thread you are aware off, as an example.


Perhaps it`s not as much of a "drama killer" in Ireland as Sweden`s figure show it to have been there (even for an incomplete year of Covid-19 deaths), due to Ireland using lockdown as opposed to Sweden`s wishy washy recommendations and restrictions in 2020 ?

Riodej1578

dalyboy wrote: »

There will be no restriction of travel to the UK 4-6 weeks from now.
I’ve only got off a what’s app text thread with 8 lads this morning. We are heading for a ferry N.I to Scotland at the beginning of June for a much needed one week “golfing” break away.

I’m personally relocating to the UK this summer for a couple of months as I’m not tied down where I can work.

Much of the UK and N.I is going to be wedged by Irish travellers July and August

From an Irish perspective it’s sad indeed as I would have very much have liked to support my locality and struggling hospitality businesses but realistically can’t see most of them survive. Our weather does not support the outside eating and drinking model which they’re going to be coerced into adopting for the medium term.

Yeah it's what I expect too. At least that'll be something for people here to look forward to, be able to travel to the UK if they wish.

Stormyteacup

facehugger99 wrote: »

I met some neighbors of ours this week. They are early 70's and have gotten their first shot this week and their second in 4 weeks time.

They cheerfully told me they are looking to get away to Spain in May after the second shot - €200 return flights into Barcelona apparently.

You have to laugh.

Fair dues to them for heading off but these are the demographic we've been told to put our lives on hold and destroy the economy for and they are going to jet off to the sun next month - no doubt Leo will "look at" non-essential retail for us at some stage in May.

Meanwhile we'll have the usual cohort cheering on the restrictions while the hospitals and ICUs are basically empty and the bill is racking up week on week.

Banana Republic of a country.

Hard to begrudge them heading off but will that be something that will be sanctioned anytime in May? The plus is they won’t be required to MHQ on the way back, but has there been talk of not issuing fines for non-essential travel, or not needing a negative PCR for coming back in for those vaccinated?

They’ll most likely still be in breach of restrictions if travelling for non-essential reasons in May. Maybe when a certain age group realise they don’t automatically get their freedoms back once vaccinated there may be some sedate protesting?

Multipass

facehugger99 wrote: »

I met some neighbors of ours this week. They are early 70's and have gotten their first shot this week and their second in 4 weeks time.

They cheerfully told me they are looking to get away to Spain in May after the second shot - €200 return flights into Barcelona apparently.

You have to laugh.

Fair dues to them for heading off but these are the demographic we've been told to put our lives on hold and destroy the economy for and they are going to jet off to the sun next month - no doubt Leo will "look at" non-essential retail for us at some stage in May.

Meanwhile we'll have the usual cohort cheering on the restrictions while the hospitals and ICUs are basically empty and the bill is racking up week on week.

Banana Republic of a country.

Fair dues to them is right, but you can’t help but feel sick about it when you watch your kid still attending uni from the bedroom. Stupid f*€king country.