Relaxation of Restrictions, Part X *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

copeyhagen

"loads of Countries going for zero covid"

3 isnt loads

Klonker

arccosh wrote: »

actual numbers give more context...

Brazil ICU beds = circa 36,000
40% = 14,400

Population = 200 mil

so, national average of 0.0072 % (or 7.2 in every 100,000 people) are under 40's are getting COVID and needing ICU.

doesn't seem so bad? Hold up for some more context..

Except for 20-30 age bracket Brazil and Ireland have similar age distributions (Ireland have more 30-40 yo's, Brazil have more 20-30 yo)

If you had similar ICU numbers in Ireland with the 0.0072%, that would be (taking population as 4.9 mil) 352 people....

Bearing in mind, the ICU bed count in Ireland hit it's (over?) 10 year high at 354 beds last year.....

that's a pretty grim figure for under 40 yo's...

That was a sledge hammer approach, with a bit more detail I'd say the number would be more realistically around the 200 mark, but still pretty grim.

That's not scaremongering, that's mathematics & statistics.

Any links to these Brazilian stats? I'm not saying I'm doubting it but there's a lot of talk about this deadlier Brazilian variant for months now and it's very hard to find the stats to back it up.

Snooker Loopy

JRant wrote: »

Straight out of the Thomas Ryan school of wishful thinking.

Can you give a couple of high level example to how we do any of this?

How is Ro-Ro freight managed?
How is the border with NI managed?

There are the 2 main items that need to be addressed so I assume you have some ideas as to how we implement it.

In my view we should have shut the border as far as was possible with exemptions for people whose work depended on cross border travel. I am not an expert in freight but nobody can tell me there were not solutions available. We have drastically changed how we live and work in the last year so why should freight be any different?

What were the pros of opening up society without any plan as we did last summer?

What is there to recommend the approach Ireland has taken in the last year? What's there to say "Ireland took the right approach"?

You see, these are the questions the majority of the posters on this forum should be answering?

Because those who are calling for opening up now - those who are moaning the loudest about our current situation - were the ones who cheerled the road to our current situation!

And they appear to have no shame or self awareness whatsoever about this.

Those who moan loudly about our current situation, who want to "open it up", those wanted to "open it up" before" - and always without a plan - they're hypocrites.

francogarbanzo

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

In my view we should have shut the border as far as was possible with exemptions for people whose work depended on cross border travel. I am not an expert in freight but nobody can tell me there were not solutions available. We have drastically changed how we live and work in the last year so why should freight be any different?

What were the pros of opening up society without any plan as we did last summer?

What is there to recommend the approach Ireland has taken in the last year? What's there to say "Ireland took the right approach"?

You see, these are the questions the majority of the posters on this forum should be answering?

Because those who are calling for opening up now - those who are moaning the loudest about our current situation - were the ones who cheerlead the road to our current situation!

And they appear to have no shame or self awareness whatsoever about this.

Those who moan loudly about our current situation, who want to "open it up", those wanted to "open it up" before" - and always without a plan - they're hypocrites.

OK, so one of those people is Covid positive and infectious, and since we're living our best lives like New Zealand and everything's open and wonderful, it infects one more person. And then another. What then? How does that work in your Zero Covid Ireland?

As for your freight point, who are the people who are trying to wish away the pandemic again? "We should have done some unknown thing better in some way!"

gozunda

francogarbanzo wrote: »

My point is, every time the relative non-lethality of Covid to the general population is brought up, someone says "Ahem, excuuuse me. You're missing the point. This is preventing the healthcare system from collapsing!"

But then when you point to the US as a place which had very little restrictions compared to ours (except for a few places [coincidentally, places which fared the worst in terms of outcomes so far]) and the healthcare system didn't collapse (ever, anywhere) - then it goes back to being about deaths from Covid.

Slippery stuff.

I dont believe that is the case. Plenty of people have outlined that restrictions are not solely predicted on the idea of "healthcare systems collapsing". Rather restrictions have had a major role in keeping infection rates down so healthcare systems can continue to cope treating those who do get seriously ill with covid and require hospitalisation. And no its not just about "mortality" but all those who get seriously ill.

Have healthcare systems and staff been placed under immense pressure at times when infection rates have climbed exponentially? Yes they have. Here, the US, Italy, Brazil, France, Germany etc etc.

There are plenty of reports right across the US - with hospitals having been documented as running critically low of staff and critical resources. (Interestingly many in states which did not bother implementing consistent restrictions) Did the hospitals cope? Fortunately for most patients they did. And that through a whole raft of means and methods including using contingency and emergency planning and resources.

Thankfully vaccinations are now helping to reduce those pressures.

Slippery? Only when the actual facts are being fudged to push the "let it rip" ideology beloved of some.

facehugger99

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

I am not an expert in freight but nobody can tell me there were not solutions available.

Kinda sums up everything about posters like this.

'I don't know any facts whatsoever but I'm choosing to believe something based on faith alone.'

I note the same poster has already confirmed they would obey any restriction that the man on the telly tells them to do - no critical thinking required here.

We're in a mess and it's all down to people who think like this.

Depressing to see.

TomTomTim

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

In my view we should have shut the border as far as was possible with exemptions for people whose work depended on cross border travel. I am not an expert in freight but nobody can tell me there were not solutions available. We have drastically changed how we live and work in the last year so why should freight be any different?

What were the pros of opening up society without any plan as we did last summer?

What is there to recommend the approach Ireland has taken in the last year? What's there to say "Ireland took the right approach"?

You see, these are the questions the majority of the posters on this forum should be answering?

Because those who are calling for opening up now - those who are moaning the loudest about our current situation - were the ones who cheerled the road to our current situation!

And they appear to have no shame or self awareness whatsoever about this.

Those who moan loudly about our current situation, who want to "open it up", those wanted to "open it up" before" - and always without a plan - they're hypocrites.

No, they are people who are simply fed up with having their rights restricted, by a government who have no plan. You can talk about plans all you want, but what does it matter when the government isn't listening? Your posts, over and over again ignore the human element. There isn't much more of this that we can take, most of us are willing to live with the risks to get our liberty back. Simply put, no one is going to tolerate the continuation of these policies beyond the summer. You've lost the audience!!

MrMischief

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

In my view we should have shut the border as far as was possible with exemptions for people whose work depended on cross border travel. I am not an expert in freight but nobody can tell me there were not solutions available. We have drastically changed how we live and work in the last year so why should freight be any different?

What were the pros of opening up society without any plan as we did last summer?

What is there to recommend the approach Ireland has taken in the last year? What's there to say "Ireland took the right approach"?

You see, these are the questions the majority of the posters on this forum should be answering?

Because those who are calling for opening up now - those who are moaning the loudest about our current situation - were the ones who cheerled the road to our current situation!

And they appear to have no shame or self awareness whatsoever about this.

Those who moan loudly about our current situation, who want to "open it up", those wanted to "open it up" before" - and always without a plan - they're hypocrites.

Exactly

No fcuking plan is exactly the point - one year on and still we have outbreaks in clinical settings & food processing plants but lets fix that by shutting up shop and not adsressing the real issues.

arccosh

Klonker wrote: »

Any links to these Brazilian stats? I'm not saying I'm doubting it but there's a lot of talk about this deadlier Brazilian variant for months now and it's very hard to find the stats to back it up.

everywhere just quotes percentages.... so I had to do the actual maths


Under 40's cases
circa 52% here
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil/majority-of-brazil-covid-19-icu-patients-aged-40-years-or-younger-report-idUSKBN2C02UB

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/brazil-now-has-more-young-than-old-covid-patients-in-icus/articleshow/82027077.cms

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-brazil-young-covid-patients-icus.html

ICU bed numbers
https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2020000605004&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en

https://healthmanagement.org/c/icu/issuearticle/critical-care-in-brazil-1



actually, one mentions 11,000 under 40's in ICU beds, so adjusting my numbers ( and taking the more conservative Brazillian population of 210 million, )

That would be 256 people in Ireland under 40, in ICU with COVID.

There are also mentions of a reduction of ICU beds being available which in turn would reduce my numbers, but as mentioned before, it would still be around the 200 mark.


edit: more detailed BMJ article on Brazil with detailed numbers from 1st April https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n879

LineOfBeauty

We're at 50 in ICU, below 200 hospital cases. Numbers Varadkar said we could open up fully (!) at. Even if you remove the fully part, we're at those numbers we are still stuck in level 5. Instead of restrictions being eased, we're being primed for another lockdown with the 4th wave talk.

brickster69

These snowflakes want us locked up forever

https://twitter.com/apexworldnews/status/1382251081586065411

gozunda

JRant wrote: »

Let's be clear, they are experts in a very narrow field of study. Being an expert is analysing a virus in a lab environment is brilliant but has very little to do with pandemic response at the population level.

The biggest mistake made in this entire thing was Leo bringing NPHET in the lead the effort. It should have been left to the strategic emergency planning task force. They are experts in planning inter-departmental responses and would have called in the relevant experts to assist in the response. They also have frameworks in place to make planning between different departments a lot easier. What we were given was a cohort of HSE management, professors, and career civil servants with a very narrow remit.

To be clearer. We have 'experts' in this thread lauding some experts and deriding others simply because they don't agree with their own personal bias.

As for NPHET

Currently NPHET is composed of:

Members ... from the Department of Health, HSE, HIQA, HPSC, ICGP and HPRA, as well as consultants, epidemiologists and the Coronavirus Expert Advisory Group and the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group. Three new members were appointed to the National Public Health Emergency Team on 6 January 2021.

Member list here

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Public_Health_Emergency_Team_(2020)

The role of NPHET as detailed is to advise the government on strategy to help manage the rate of infection etc of Covid 19. Afaik they don't get to implement policy.

Hellrazer

gozunda wrote: »

The role of NPHET as detailed is to advise the government on strategy to help manage the rate of infection etc of Covid 19. Afaik they don't get to implement policy.

Maybe not but our leaders are so afraid of going against NPHETs "advice" that if Nphet said they could cure covid completely by looking in a mirror and saying Stephen Donnelly is an amazing Health Minister 50 times while spinning around with black candles lighting, standing in a pentagram they`d implement it tomorrow without question (a bit extreme but you get where Im going)


While NPHET dont "implement" policy it certainly feels that way since not one person in the government will even question their "advice" or call them to task over the scaremongering that they seem content with.

Snooker Loopy

TomSweeney wrote: »

What conspiracy ? , I don't want censorship, just honest reporting on the facts and not lying by omission

Your previous post literally went into conspiracy theorising. I'd hazard a guess that when you say you want "honest reporting", you mean "reports" that say things you like - ie. propaganda.

Very Trumpian.

Lumen

LineOfBeauty wrote: »

We're at 50 in ICU, below 200 hospital cases. Numbers Varadkar said we could open up fully (!) at. Even if you remove the fully part, we're at those numbers we are still stuck in level 5. Instead of restrictions being eased, we're being primed for another lockdown with the 4th wave talk.

That's not true. We currently have a mix of restrictions, mostly level 5 but some level 3/4 (schools open with protective measures), level 3 (workplace attendance, domestic travel) and level 1/2 (care home visits with protective measures).

Also, construction is now open, and that's been largely closed during level 5.

Plus fully vaccinated people can meet indoors.

From 26 April we get outdoor sports and visitor attractions.

So you're wrong about up being "stuck in level 5", and you're wrong about restrictions not being eased.

ypres5

gozunda wrote: »

To be clearer. We have 'experts' in this thread lauding some experts and deriding others simply because they don't agree with their own personal bias.

As for NPHET

Currently NPHET is composed of:



Member list here

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Public_Health_Emergency_Team_(2020)

The role of NPHET as detailed is to advise the government on strategy to help manage the rate of infection etc of Covid 19. Afaik they don't get to implement policy.

But they have considerable sway over government decisions to the point it seems the government do their best to tiptoe round them since last October

Snooker Loopy

TomTomTim wrote: »

No, they are people who are simply fed up with having their rights restricted, by a government who have no plan. You can talk about plans all you want, but what does it matter when the government isn't listening? Your posts, over and over again ignore the human element. There isn't much more of this that we can take, most of us are willing to live with the risks to get our liberty back. Simply put, no one is going to tolerate the continuation of these policies beyond the summer. You've lost the audience!!

Agressive suppression specifically takes the human element into account. The whole concept is you put a sustainable framework in place to allow people to have a better quality of life than we are currently experiencing.

"Open it up now" without a plan doesn't take the human element into account, it pisses all over it.

It's quite reasonable for somebody to say they're struggling with our current lives - believe me, I'm struggling more than anybody here - or to say they're dissatisfied with the government - again, as I am - but calling for make believe gets nobody anywhere.

francogarbanzo

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

Your previous post literally went into conspiracy theorising. I'd hazard a guess that when you say you want "honest reporting", you mean "reports" that say things you like - ie. propaganda.

Very Trumpian.

Rich. The guy calling for closed borders calling someone else "Trumpian."

Sofa King Great

Lumen wrote: »

That's not true. We currently have a mix of restrictions, mostly level 5 but some level 3/4 (schools open with protective measures), level 3 (workplace attendance, domestic travel) and level 1/2 (care home visits with protective measures).

Also, construction is now open, and that's been largely closed during level 5.

Plus fully vaccinated people can meet indoors.

From 26 April we get outdoor sports and visitor attractions.

So you're wrong about up being "stuck in level 5", and you're wrong about restrictions not being eased.

As of today, all hospitality, non essential retail, commercial construction sites are closed. Sports, leaving your county (or more than 20km) and household visits are banned. Public transport is operating at limited capacity. There is mandatory quarantine for entering the country even if you are vaccinated. There are significant delays for lots of cancer screenings and non covid related healthcare. You cannot get a passport.

All this for 192 people in hospital

Snooker Loopy

ypres5 wrote: »

But they have considerable sway over government decisions to the point it seems the government do their best to tiptoe round them since last October

NPHET were asking for mandatory hotel quarantine last May. Whatever "sway" over government they have, it's clearly not nearly enough. They've been fighting with two hands tied behind their back since the start.

The reason ISAG exists is to put independent, external pressure on the government of the sort that NPHET aren't really able to do.

Snooker Loopy

francogarbanzo wrote: »

Rich. The guy calling for closed borders calling someone else "Trumpian."

I'm an internationalist and I love travel and I love what immigrants have brought to our country.

I'm also a realist when it comes to pandemics.

When the facts change, I adjust my opinions in light of those new facts.

What do you do?

Resort to crude reductionism when you can't argue a point, by the looks of things.

SnuggyBear

I see a new clown posting on this thread. It's like a revolving door.

funnydoggy

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

The reason ISAG exists is to put independent, external pressure on the government of the sort that NPHET aren't really able to do.

Also to "look for ways to increase insecurity, anxiety, and uncertainty."

Snooker Loopy

facehugger99 wrote: »

Kinda sums up everything about posters like this.

'I don't know any facts whatsoever but I'm choosing to believe something based on faith alone.'

I note the same poster has already confirmed they would obey any restriction that the man on the telly tells them to do - no critical thinking required here.

We're in a mess and it's all down to people who think like this.

Depressing to see.

Are you saying there were no solutions available?

The logic of your position is either i) that what we have had for the last year was the best situation available to us or ii) we should have let it rip.

I have yet to year any sort of a credible argument for either.

So let's hear your arguments. What should we have done?

Let's hear your "critical thinking".

This should be good, eh.

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1382291201655779330

We should have stayed out of the EU scheme and done our own deal.

Snooker Loopy

funnydoggy wrote: »

Also to "look for ways to increase insecurity, anxiety, and uncertainty."

Or, to put it another way, tell the truth.

Because to tell the truth in December and January involved, unavoidably, increasing insecurity, anxiety and uncertainty.

Didn't it?

The truth was extremely grim.

And the truth has no regard for your feelings.

showpony1

Chivito550 wrote: »

This whole thing about indoor things associated with outdoor activities is such a load of bollocks.

I ran the National Senior and National Masters track and field championships in Morton Stadium last September. All changing rooms were closed. The call room for athletes was outside under one of the stands. The indoor warm up track was closed. The clubhouse bar was closed. The only indoor thing open was the bloody jacks (the non changing room jacks) and they had portaloos too.

If athletics can manage that then I'm sure every other sport can.

It was the same in soccer when it returned from July until September last year- no dressing rooms open. Portaloos beside the pitch.

francogarbanzo

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

I'm an internationalist and I love travel and I love what immigrants have brought to our country.

I'm also a realist when it comes to pandemics.

When the facts change, I adjust my opinions in light of those new facts.

What do you do?

Resort to crude reductionism when you can't argue a point, by the looks of things.

"I love immigrants," Trump said, when presenter Jose Diaz-Balart asked the president about his administration's policies on child separation, on the DACA program protecting people brought to the US illegally as children -- which the president ended -- and on his "zero-tolerance" border plans.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/trump-courts-the-hispanic-vote-i-love-immigrants-119062100150_1.html

My man. You're the one throwing out ad hominems and deliberately misrepresenting others' points like "Trumpian", "Mad for pints", "Let er rip".

LineOfBeauty

Lumen wrote: »

That's not true. We currently have a mix of restrictions, mostly level 5 but some level 3/4 (schools open with protective measures), level 3 (workplace attendance, domestic travel) and level 1/2 (care home visits with protective measures).

Also, construction is now open, and that's been largely closed during level 5.

Plus fully vaccinated people can meet indoors.

From 26 April we get outdoor sports and visitor attractions.

So you're wrong about up being "stuck in level 5", and you're wrong about restrictions not being eased.

Oh is sport back on April 26th? I play sport, I've heard nothing of the sort.

What domestic travel? We currently aren't supposed to leave our counties. And we're strongly urged to work from home too so I've no idea how that's Level 3.

Maybe I'm wrong here, but unless you're a child or old enough to be in a group that's received a vaccine then essentially your stuck inside with your only reprieve being your daily exercise.

And, if those numbers are correct, the hospitals are far from overwhelmed and yet you can't sit outside a cafe for a coffee or go into a shop and buy clothes. The punishment does not match the crime.

niallo27

People going on about restrictions easing, this Friday name one thing I can do socially besides meet one other person in a field. Name one ****ing thing I can do.