Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

namloc1980

KrustyUCC wrote: »

So no difference in restrictions for those doing well or those doing poorly

Brilliant

Actually if you're doing badly you get pop up testing centres.

gozunda

timmyntc wrote: »

You imply that cases will spiral out of control in hospital in the under 65s were we to open. That we will see a big number of cases in hospital in younger cohorts.

Nope. Incorrect. Show me where that was stated or implied. Thanks.

timmyntc wrote: »

The number of serious cases in younger groups scales with the number of underlying conditions in younger groups. Quelle surprise. The high percentage of death and hospitalisation in underlying conditions vs those without prove this connection. Its almost as if having an underlying medical condition is the #1 predictor of outcome with covid. Given the above, and the fact that - as per your stats - young people are proportionally less likely to have an underlying condition, we can state that it is statistically unlikely that hospital cases in under 65s are being driven by a majority of healthy people (with no underlying conditions)The only stat we are missing is the age breakdown of underlying conditions in hospital - but from all the other information we have, its statistically likely that most young people in hospital have underlying conditions.

Funny that you've previously accused me of making assumptions with that exact same data - when I clearly made no assumptions about the proportion with or without an underlying conditions. Strangely enough you previously claimed that the data from the HSPC showing the percentage with underlying conditions in the population and known data with underlying conditions in hospital didn't go to "prove anything about the hospitalisation numbers for under 65s without underlying conditions". 

Something btw you are now doing despite the fact the statistics giving that age breakdown of those with covid and underlying conditions in hospital are currently not available

It remains your assumptions are just that - assumptions. But more importantly it remains that approx 50 % of those in hospital with covid are under 65s.

Whether some do or do not have an underlying condition does not take away from that known statistic.

big syke

caveat emptor wrote: »

A day does not a trend make.

Do 3 days indicate a trend?

OwenM

gozunda wrote: »

Nope. Incorrect. Show me where that was stated or implied. Thanks.



Funny that you've previously accused me of making assumptions with that exact same data when I clearly made no assumptions about proportion with or without an underlying condition.

Something btw you are now doing despite the fact the statistics giving that age breakdown of those with covid and an underlying conditions in hospital are currently not available

It remains your assumptions are just that - assumptions. But more importantly it remains that approx 50 of under 65s in hospital with covid are aged under 65.

Whether some do or do not have an underlying condition does not take away from that known statistic.

Im confused: Half of the people under the age of 65 in hospital with covid are aged under 65

Eod100

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1375121899513122816

Rosita

expectationlost wrote: »

anything the gov announces next week is meaningless if we can't read NPHET's recommendations at the same time

Only the government's announcement matters. Comparison with the NPHET recommendations will provide fuel for anger but is irrelevant. NPHET doesn't make law.

timmyntc

gozunda wrote: »

But more importantly it remains that approx 50 of under 65s in hospital with covid are aged under 65.

Whether some do or do not have an underlying condition does not take away from that known statistic.

50% of under 65s are under 65? What age are the other 50%? :pac:

Gregor Samsa

OwenM wrote: »

Im confused: Half of the people under the age of 65 in hospital with covid are aged under 65

Yes, and it makes perfect sense. It's just that the other 50% are also under 65.

OwenM

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

Yes, and it makes perfect sense. It's just that the other 50% are also under 65.

Thanks for clearing that up, I'm assuming the third half are over 65 then?

aziz

KrustyUCC wrote: »

So no difference in restrictions for those doing well or those doing poorly

Brilliant

A bit of school teacher mentality “The whole class will be held back until the bold boys do what they are told “

JP Liz V1

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1375105197832339458

gozunda

OwenM wrote: »

Im confused: Half of the people under the age of 65 in hospital with covid are aged under 65

Hi confused. Thanks for that.


: My bad typo. That should be - but not to repeat myself "approx 50 % of those in hospital with Covid are aged under 65"

You'll have to excuse my dodgy keyboard - it's not working so well after covering it with coffee from laughing at the last comment

Batattackrat

gozunda wrote: »

Ha : . My bad typo. That should be - but not to repeat myself "approx 50 of those in hospital with Covid are aged under 65"

Still don't know how many of these would of been in hospital regardless of Covid.

lukas8888

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

They are specifically for people without symptoms.

That's a given,but will not stop loads of hypochondriacs heading for a test,particularly as before their local GP would have a fair idea of the permanently worried and would not refer them.

gozunda

Professor Luke O’Neill says Ireland is ‘in the thick’ of pandemic fatigue, and a change in approach is now needed.

The Trinity College immunologist says the five-kilometre travel restriction is one rule that ‘clearly’ needs to be changed by the Government, as it would stop people crowding into areas like their local park.

He said letting people do more outdoor activities more means they'll be less likely to break other rules - something that's been seen in past pandemics

https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-oneill-let-people-outdoors-more-and-theyll-be-less-likely-to-break-other-rules-1170275

There's problem with that. I understand what he says with regard to pandemic fatigue however

At present we have what is an effective stay at home order much like the UK.

Tied to that in the UK people have been asked to stay local when exercising

In Ireland people have been asked to stay within 5km when exercising

The UK have not rolled back their stay at home / exercise locally restrictions at present are ahead of us with vaccinations.

So is he suggesting a complete removal of the stay at home / exercise locally type restrictions despite our relatively low level of vaccinations or ?

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/vaccines/

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-oneill-let-people-outdoors-more-and-theyll-be-less-likely-to-break-other-rules-1170275

There's problem with that. I understand what he says with regard to pandemic fatigue however

At present we have what is an effective stay at home order much like the UK.

Tied to that in the UK people have been asked to stay local when exercising

In Ireland people have been asked to stay within 5km when exercising

The UK have not rolled back their stay at home / exercise locally restrictions at present are ahead of us with vaccinations.

So is he suggesting a complete removal of the stay at home / exercise locally type restrictions despite our relatively low level of vaccinations or ?

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/vaccines/

But as has been said before, no one in the UK is paying attention to a ‘stay at home’ order that people had forgotten was in place anyway. Or even a ‘stay local’ order. The Surrey hills are full of cyclists from London on their 100km weekend spins, the motorways are jammed, Airbnb’s are largely operating and there is really impediment to travel (no police roadblocks or anything). My entire family live there, my sister and her kids drove from Leeds to Bristol to see our mum, and the journey I am told was just like normal

manofwisdom

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Swabs are 17 higher than a fortnight ago.

Depressingly stagnated.

Testing much higher also. Close to 11,000 extra tests done this week compared to fortnight ago. ​

JazzyJ

Philip Nolan's "academic exercise" to begin. Just like the mandatory quarantine about a year too late.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/close-contacts-to-be-traced-back-7-days-in-bid-to-halt-covid-spread-40239491.html

caveat emptor

big syke wrote: »

Do 3 days indicate a trend?

It may well be a trend. I think the only way to look at our data is on a 7 or 14 day trend.

This thread has been held hostage to the daily yo yo higher lower game for a year now.

I barely register daily case counts as it's more of an indication of the opening hours of gp surgeries than prevalence in the community.

caveat emptor

JazzyJ wrote: »

Philip Nolan's "academic exercise" to begin. Just like the mandatory quarantine about a year too late.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/close-contacts-to-be-traced-back-7-days-in-bid-to-halt-covid-spread-40239491.html

bout fvcking time.

Faugheen

JazzyJ wrote: »

Philip Nolan's "academic exercise" to begin. Just like the mandatory quarantine about a year too late.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/close-contacts-to-be-traced-back-7-days-in-bid-to-halt-covid-spread-40239491.html

When people talk about NPHET ruling the roost and only want us locked down, remember that they recommended this in August and it has been ignored up to now.

The government absolutely don't have to listen to them if they don't want to. Just lockdown is convenient for them to listen to NPHET.

Turtwig

This is great at and all. Long overdue. However I'm really pessimistic they can actually implement the retrospective tracing effectively given the high rate of infection. Probably better than nothing mind.

Morries Wigs

ShineOn7 wrote: »

They are

But if anything resembling a pub (Wet or Dry) opens in them you'll get all the "mad lads" from Dublin circumventing travel restrictions to go on the piss

Cue 2 or 3 weeks later and Cork is fcuked with high numbers

Cork and most of Munster deserves to open (and I say that as a Dubliner), but I think any of the pubs opening there will just result in carnage from Dubs and other county natives

Who said anything abt pubs no-one but you

is_that_so

JazzyJ wrote: »

Philip Nolan's "academic exercise" to begin. Just like the mandatory quarantine about a year too late.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/close-contacts-to-be-traced-back-7-days-in-bid-to-halt-covid-spread-40239491.html

It could not have been done even up to the end of summer of last year. The system only became properly functional in about September and people with too many close contacts just makes it impossible to scale up.

is_that_so

Faugheen wrote: »

When people talk about NPHET ruling the roost and only want us locked down, remember that they recommended this in August and it has been ignored up to now.

The government absolutely don't have to listen to them if they don't want to. Just lockdown is convenient for them to listen to NPHET.

Testing is the HSE, not either of these.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But as has been said before, no one in the UK is paying attention to a ‘stay at home’ order that people had forgotten was in place anyway. Or even a ‘stay local’ order. The Surrey hills are full of cyclists from London on their 100km weekend spins, the motorways are jammed, Airbnb’s are largely operating and there is really impediment to travel (no police roadblocks or anything). My entire family live there, my sister and her kids drove from Leeds to Bristol to see our mum, and the journey I am told was just like normal

And was shown before - that seems to be more of some wishful belief as opposed to the actual situation on the ground in the UK from reputable sources

I believe what you are detailing is black market and most likley a similar proportion of those not observing restrictions as here. Which again have been shown not to be the majority of people. Like Ireland - essential travel and business related activities such as seen as traffic on motorways is not 'proof that everyone is giving the two fingers to restrictions. And yes I have family living there. But on an anonymous forum making claims about what they're doing or not doing would be anecdotal at best.

Renault 5

Turtwig wrote: »

This is great at and all. Long overdue. However I'm really pessimistic they can actually implement the retrospective tracing effectively given the high rate of infection. Probably better than nothing mind.

I expect that the tracing numbers that lead back to Education sectors will be heavily massaged before they are released to the public.

blowitupref

ShineOn7 wrote: »

They are

But if anything resembling a pub (Wet or Dry) opens in them you'll get all the "mad lads" from Dublin circumventing travel restrictions to go on the piss

Cue 2 or 3 weeks later and Cork is fcuked with high numbers

Cork and most of Munster deserves to open (and I say that as a Dubliner), but I think any of the pubs opening there will just result in carnage from Dubs and other county natives

Would be no opening of pubs in level 4 restrictions.

gozunda

gozunda wrote: »

And was shown before - that seems to be more of some wishful belief as opposed to the actual situation on the ground in the UK from reputable sources

I believe what you are detailing is black market and most likley a similar proportion of those not observing restrictions as here. Which again have been shown not to be the majority of people. Like Ireland - essential travel and business related activities such as seen as traffic on motorways is not 'proof that everyone is giving the two fingers to restrictions. And yes I have family living there. But on an anonymous forum making claims about what they're doing or not doing would be anecdotal at best.

What are your reputable sources? I’m not sure all the people on the motorways are going to and from school!?

I know you’re trying to fight the good fight. That it’s only a minority, that restrictions aren’t falling apart....but IMO its you that is prone to wishful thinking, not I

titan18

blowitupref wrote: »

Would be no opening of pubs in level 4 restrictions.

Yup, you could easily open click and collect, hairdressers etc and you won't really get people travelling in unless they live close to the border anyway. No one is driving down from Dublin to get a haircut in Cork like.