Covid 19 Part XXXIV-249,437 ROI(4,906 deaths) 120,195 NI (2,145 deaths)(01/05)Read OP

Sweet.Science

Wolf359f wrote: »

It will ramp up, but the biggest week will be the last week of June more than likely, not the first week of April.

We were told numerous times one million a week by April

OwenM

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

They are new viruses, your cousin is not identical to you but you are connected genetically

But it's not a 'new' novel virus. Vaccines and post infection immunity still work.

ek motor

covidrelease wrote: »

Should have been undone on the last review, if we are in another wave then government and NPHET incompetence is to blame.

They are incapable of changing course and accepting their failures until there is a rebellion of sorts.

Passed a checkpoint in a rural hamlet today, 2 cops sitting in their car, I mean, what is the fcuking point of that, especially in an area near the bottom of the table for incidence rates.

Get the overtime in while you can , moolah to be made !

Wolf359f

Sweet.Science wrote: »

We were told numerous times one million a week by April

Where is this 1mil a week lie coming from?

Ha Long Bay

Sweet.Science wrote: »

We were told numerous times one million a week by April

No we weren't.

Over 1m vaccine doses per month expected

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0220/1198359-vaccine-roll-out/

Banana Republic 1

OwenM wrote: »

But it's not a 'new' novel virus. Vaccines and post infection immunity still work.

AstraZeneca are giving dude vaccines to South Africa so are they.

Brazilian P1 is also bucking the immunity trend.

ek motor

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

AstraZeneca are giving dude vaccines to South Africa so are they.

Brazilian P1 is also bucking the immunity trend.

Wha?

gozunda

timmyntc wrote: »

That doesnt prove what you think it does.
63% of those hospitalised have underlying conditions. Over 65s are more likely to have an underlying condition. Your data shows the % of underlying conditions in ALL confirmed cases across age brackets. Doesnt say anything about hospitalisation of age brackets with/without underlying condition.Those 2 facts dont prove anything about the hospitalisation numbers for under 65s without underlying conditions. The stats youve shown present no overlap between under 65 and underlying condition. *So your claim that healthy u65s would fill up hospitals is baseless.

Nope. * Btw where did I say that?

I made no claims about the data other than what it details.

What the additional data to my original point does show - is that those under 65 have a much lower rate of underlying conditions than those over 65

You on the othehand have made a number of unfounded claims without any data whatsoever to back them up.

This for instance.

timmyntc wrote:

....Relatively few healthy under 65s end up in hospital

But more importantly I've never claimed

"timmyntc wrote:

" that healthy u65s would fill up hospitals"

What I've clearly stated was that approx 50% of all those in hospital with covid are under 65 as seen from the data of the 14 day HSPC incidence reports.

You came out with the idea that it's mainly unhealthy under 65s who fill up hospitals or wtte but subsequently have failed to show what you've claimed is in any way true.

Lucas Hood

604 positive swabs, 3.39% positivity on 17,821 tests.
7 day test positivity is 3.8%.

hynesie08

Sweet.Science wrote: »

We were told numerous times one million a week by April

What's the appeal of lieing on the internet when anybody can correct you in seconds?

timmyntc

gozunda wrote: »

Where did I say that?

I made no claims about the data other than what it details.

What the additional data to my original point does show is that those under 65 have a much lower rate of underlying conditions than those over 65

You imply that cases will spiral out of control in hospital in the under 65s were we to open. That we will see a big number of cases in hospital in younger cohorts.

gozunda wrote:

From a hospital number prospective- over 50% of all covid cases in hospitals are under 65. And looking at the stats - that's been a fairly consistent features of hospital numbers.
...
And as someone has already pointed out the number of serious cases in the younger groups has been a small percentage. A small percentage of a big number can still be a relatively big number.

The number of serious cases in younger groups scales with the number of underlying conditions in younger groups. Quelle surprise.
The high percentage of death and hospitalisation in underlying conditions vs those without prove this connection. Its almost as if having an underlying medical condition is the #1 predictor of outcome with covid.

Given the above, and the fact that - as per your stats - young people are proportionally less likely to have an underlying condition, we can state that it is statistically unlikely that hospital cases in under 65s are being driven by a majority of healthy people (with no underlying conditions)


The only stat we are missing is the age breakdown of underlying conditions in hospital - but from all the other information we have, its statistically likely that most young people in hospital have underlying conditions.

fits

Lucas Hood wrote: »

604 positive swabs, 3.39% positivity on 17,821 tests.
7 day test positivity is 3.8%.

Good that it’s back under 4%. Numbers stagnant enough though.

fits

timmyntc wrote: »

You imply that cases will spiral out of control in hospital in the under 65s were we to open. That we will see a big number of cases in hospital in younger cohorts.



The number of serious cases in younger groups scales with the number of underlying conditions in younger groups. Quelle surprise.
The high percentage of death and hospitalisation in underlying conditions vs those without prove this connection. Its almost as if having an underlying medical condition is the #1 predictor of outcome with covid.

Given the above, and the fact that - as per your stats - young people are proportionally less likely to have an underlying condition, we can state that it is statistically unlikely that hospital cases in under 65s are being driven by a majority of healthy people (with no underlying conditions)


The only stat we are missing is the age breakdown of underlying conditions in hospital - but from all the other information we have, its statistically likely that most young people in hospital have underlying conditions.

I don’t really get the underlying condition argument. Are you saying people with asthma don’t really count?

MerlinSouthDub

Lucas Hood wrote: »

604 positive swabs, 3.39% positivity on 17,821 tests.
7 day test positivity is 3.8%.

31% more tests than same day last week. 19% more positive swabs. Not bad at all.

timmyntc

fits wrote: »

I don’t really get the underlying condition argument. Are you saying people with asthma don’t really count?

The argument is that these people are one of the targetted vaccination cohorts.
They are the big drivers of hospitalisations (60%) ICU (80%) and deaths (90%).

So when the vulnerable are vaccinated or almost all vaccinated, there is little to stop us from opening.

See link below for the breakdown (up to end of 2020)

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/underlyingconditionsreports/Underlying%20conditions%20summary_1.0v%2014122020.pdf

namloc1980

Wolf359f wrote: »

It will ramp up, but the biggest week will be the last week of June more than likely, not the first week of April.

Who the fook agreed to a contractual term that allows suppliers to backload deliveries into the end of the quarter? Ridiculous.

blowitupref

This morning several TDs appealed for the Government to consider easing lockdowns on a regional basis.

However, Mr Varadkar said that "we are not in a position yet to treat different counties differently" adding that "there is no county in Ireland at the moment where the incidence is low enough"

Has he even bothered to look at the data? To name but a few counties and their 14 day incidence rate.

Kilkenny 33.3
Cork 42.9
Kerry 48.7
Monaghan 48.9
Leitrim 53.1
Clare 54.7
Mayo 59.8

All of those are low enough for at least level 4 restrictions.

expectationlost

anything the gov announces next week is meaningless if we can't read NPHET's recommendations at the same time

ednwireland

blowitupref wrote: »

This morning several TDs appealed for the Government to consider easing lockdowns on a regional basis.

However, Mr Varadkar said that "we are not in a position yet to treat different counties differently" adding that "there is no county in Ireland at the moment where the incidence is low enough"

Has he even bothered to look at the data? To name but a few counties and their 14 day incidence rate.

Kilkenny 33.3
Cork 42.9
Kerry 48.7
Monaghan 48.9
Leitrim 53.1
Clare 54.7
Mayo 59.8

All of those are low enough for at least level 4 restrictions.

problem is when we went to level whatever restrictions last autumn there was no reduction in the numbers of people in the town. its only when the restrictions went countrywide was there any reduction in numbers unfortunately.

ShineOn7

blowitupref wrote: »

Kilkenny 33.3
Cork 42.9
Kerry 48.7
Monaghan 48.9
Leitrim 53.1
Clare 54.7
Mayo 59.8

All of those are low enough for at least level 4 restrictions.

They are

But if anything resembling a pub (Wet or Dry) opens in them you'll get all the "mad lads" from Dublin circumventing travel restrictions to go on the piss

Cue 2 or 3 weeks later and Cork is fcuked with high numbers

Cork and most of Munster deserves to open (and I say that as a Dubliner), but I think any of the pubs opening there will just result in carnage from Dubs and other county natives

Lucas Hood

Lucas Hood wrote: »

604 positive swabs, 3.39% positivity on 17,821 tests.
7 day test positivity is 3.8%.

Wave 4 over, roll on wave 5

vienne86

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

31% more tests than same day last week. 19% more positive swabs. Not bad at all.

Yes, because this day last week was the day after Paddy's day when number might have been down a bit.

Wolf359f

namloc1980 wrote: »

Who the fook agreed to a contractual term that allows suppliers to backload deliveries into the end of the quarter? Ridiculous.

The contracts were all based on quarterly deliveries. I pretty much doubt any supplier would agree to weekly or even monthly delivery schedules.

MerlinSouthDub

Deleted User wrote: »

Wave 4 over, roll on wave 5

It will only be a little tiny wave, just gently lapping at our ankles as we walk on the beach in the May sunshine. We'll hardly even notice it.

Baggly

Sweet.Science wrote: »

We were told numerous times one million a week by April

Mod

Quote a source or correct your error please.

CIARAN_BOYLE

vienne86 wrote: »

Yes, because this day last week was the day after Paddy's day when number might have been down a bit.

Swabs are 17 higher than a fortnight ago.

Depressingly stagnated.

eigrod

fits wrote: »

Good that it’s back under 4%. Numbers stagnant enough though.

The daily positivity rate has been under 3.5% for 3 successive days now.

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

Wave 4 over, roll on wave 5

A day does not a trend make.

Tyrone212

EU has exported 21m vaccines to the UK since December. That's the vast majority of their vaccines administered.

KrustyUCC

blowitupref wrote: »

This morning several TDs appealed for the Government to consider easing lockdowns on a regional basis.

However, Mr Varadkar said that "we are not in a position yet to treat different counties differently" adding that "there is no county in Ireland at the moment where the incidence is low enough"

Has he even bothered to look at the data? To name but a few counties and their 14 day incidence rate.

Kilkenny 33.3
Cork 42.9
Kerry 48.7
Monaghan 48.9
Leitrim 53.1
Clare 54.7
Mayo 59.8

All of those are low enough for at least level 4 restrictions.

So no difference in restrictions for those doing well or those doing poorly

Brilliant