COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

KrustyUCC

stephenjmcd wrote: »

J&J deliveries in April smaller than initially expected & they knock a bit off whatever AZ have told them because you basically can't rely on them to deliver on time(If they do then great & the numbers get adjusted upwards accordingly). J&J building up through May into but its a backloaded order by the looks of it. Still to deliver as expected, just in larger quantities later in May & June.

Pfizer has been and will continue to be the workhorse

That's my take on it anyway

OK thanks for the reply

Still a very large hole

950k + 860k = 1.8m

That leaves 1.2 to be on target for Martins "Close to 3 million doses will be administered by the end of May"

namloc1980

Another HSE farce

.

Mike3549

KrustyUCC wrote: »

OK thanks for the reply

Still a very large hole

950k + 860k = 1.8m

That leaves 1.2 to be on target for Martins "Close to 3 million doses will be administered by the end of May"

????????
Your maths are wrong

Approx 860k up to now, March
860k april
1.1m may
Total 2.72m which is very close to 3m

eoinbn

KrustyUCC wrote: »

WTF

How are we down 140,000 vaccines already?

We aren't. Don't take this as a sign that the vaccine manufacturers are behind schedule.
The government over simplified the data and will get some stick for it in April when they miss the 1m target.
Basically companies like Pfizer said they would deliver X amount of vaccines on Q2. The government divided that equally over the 3 months which was a daft thing to do. Just like on Q1 there will be more delivered in the last month of the quarter than the first.

For example Pfizer will likely be 550k/750k/900k rather than 733k/733k/734k. Moderna and J&J will be even more back-loaded with over half the doses for the quarter arriving in June.
.

Van.Bosch

namloc1980 wrote: »

Another HSE farce

.

Ah lads, so now we know why cohort 2 kept growing.

This couldn’t be true could it? When the portal opened I took a look at it and it didn’t look great but I assumed it wouldn’t let anyone book??

Turtwig

This is going to turn into a sh1tfest of who "deserves" vaccines.

mmclo

Deleted User wrote: »

Heres what i am confused about though, how are they identifiying the "at risk" groups in the under 65s?

If priority is now going to be based on age, will my age (51) be looked at and my vaccination appointment given based on that, or will they also check for any underlying conditions?

I don't think they will, as I was last seen by the Diabetes Clinic in the hospital in Nov 2017 (I checked with them this morning) and my GP is clueless.

Sorry for being a moan, but its all very frustrating, and I'm not the only one in this position.

That would be Group 7 afaik, the age thing kicks in for everyone else after that

KrustyUCC

Mike3549 wrote: »

????????
Your maths are wrong

Approx 860k up to now, March
860k april
1.1m may
Total 2.72m which is very close to 3m

Yeah the 950k is doses delivered not administered

2.72m is quite a bit away from 3m

Turtwig

Turtwig wrote: »

This is going to turn into a sh1tfest of who "deserves" vaccines.

Yup, we're over 3 months in now and cancer patients are waiting while CEO of a private hospital pulls a sneaky one for his kid's teachers. 3 months and my dad with COPD, multiple stents, several heart attacks in the past, diabetes and aged 65 still has heard nothing.
It all stems from supply, as we all know but Jesus Christ it's sickening that it's still dragging out like this.

Qrt

Anyone else convinced the new online portal for vaccination slots will just be a surveymonkey? No, just me?

noplacehere

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Ah lads, so now we know why cohort 2 kept growing.

This couldn’t be true could it? When the portal opened I took a look at it and it didn’t look great but I assumed it wouldn’t let anyone book??

I know someone in the health service who told me this was happening weeks and weeks ago. The portal was meant to be only for frontline patient facing roles. According to her EVERYONE was completing the form booking because no one was checking it. Worth noting she did not apply through it until her team leader approved

Azatadine

The four horsemen of the apocalypse (Killeen, Staines, McConkey and Ryan) probably won't agree...not peer reviewed yet but promising.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/your-immune-system-evolves-to-fight-coronavirus-variants/

JacksonHeightsOwn

namloc1980 wrote: »

Another HSE farce

.

I'm not suprised with this.

I do contract work in a hospital, and tend to be in there 80% of the time.

We weren't eligible for a vaccine because we're not working in the wards. Which is fair enough I suppose.

My wife told me about that website on Friday afternoon after friends of hers, who work in trinity college got vaccines through it. These people work from home by the way..

Sure only yesterday I know of people working on the make up counter in boots where getting vaccinated.

I also know of someone that works in a housing agency, for the homeless though I might add. Is at home on maternity leave, has received a vaccine, while her father who's currently having treatment for cancer hasn't gotten one, nor her mother, who had breast cancer two years ago.

I don't blame the girl for taking it, but how on earth can some of these people get prioritised over elderly people or cancer sufferers.

is_that_so

Qrt wrote: »

Anyone else convinced the new online portal for vaccination slots will just be a surveymonkey? No, just me?

Why would it? It sounds like a simple enough booking system, probably using your PPS?

IRISHSPORTSGUY

We got the vaccination schedule for next week? Are those 100k AZ in the bank yet?

celt262

chrisbonnie wrote: »

I'm not suprised with this.

I do contract work in a hospital, and tend to be in there 80% of the time.

We weren't eligible for a vaccine because we're not working in the wards. Which is fair enough I suppose.

My wife told me about that website on Friday afternoon after friends of hers, who work in trinity college got vaccines through it. These people work from home by the way..

Sure only yesterday I know of people working on the make up counter in boots where getting vaccinated.

I also know of someone that works in a housing agency, for the homeless though I might add. Is at home on maternity leave, has received a vaccine, while her father who's currently having treatment for cancer hasn't gotten one, nor her mother, who had breast cancer two years ago.

I don't blame the girl for taking it, but how on earth can some of these people get prioritised over elderly people or cancer sufferers.

This is why the Government are right to do it by age and hopefully the system will be tight enough to stop any activity like the above. (Wont hold my breadth thought).

JacksonHeightsOwn

celt262 wrote: »

This is why the Government are right to do it by age and hopefully the system will be tight enough to stop any activity like the above. (Wont hold my breadth thought).

I totally agree.

lbj666

celt262 wrote: »

This is why the Government are right to do it by age and hopefully the system will be tight enough to stop any activity like the above. (Wont hold my breadth thought).

Inability to develop a proper secure booking system even if it is an interim one for healthcare workers, shouldnt be a reason though. This is pretty poor stuff tbh.

PhoenixParker

lbj666 wrote: »

Inability to develop a proper secure booking system even if it is an interim one for healthcare workers, shouldnt be a reason though. This is pretty poor stuff tbh.

Honestly, it's extremely difficult to do it properly using any other way.

Let's say the teachers.
So you set up a portal and they can register. Grand thats easy. Then you need an approval process.

Let's say everything is wonderful and the principals in each school agree to do it. (They quite likely wouldn't, or would want extra payment, or most would but some wouldn't).

Now you've to decide who gets it. 80% are easy. Then the subs? The cleaner? The janitor? The teacher on long term sick leave? The special needs assistants? The sub who works once a month? The sub who only worked once 3 months ago but is desperate for more hours? The person on year 3 of a 5 year career break? The person who's been on sick leave for years.

When a principal decides to say his wife is also doing a few hours as a secretary? Or the PTA ask the principal to slip their names in . . . How does that get policed?

For every yes you give, therell be at least 10 minutes of checking, probably at 2 levels (on top of all the actual vaccine admin).

For every no you give, you have to have an appeals process and even then you're still risking a media flurry.

Back of an envelope calculation for 100k people.

90% go straight through with a 10min quick check - 15,000 man hours
10% need an hour to check and refuse - 10,000 man hours
Half of those appeal (4500) and need 4 hours to process - 18000 man hours

Were at 43000 man hours to process 100k people and we have multiples of that to do.

24 people working for a year per 100k.
15 if we get the principals or similar to do phase 1 approval for free.

Or we go with age and its straightforward.

Stark

Hopefully the program will have accelerated to a degree that by the time you've worked out all those issues, updated the booking systems etc., those people will be done anyway.

seamus

Stark wrote: »

Hopefully the program will have accelerated to a degree that by the time you've worked out all those issues, updated the booking systems etc., those people will be done anyway.

That's effectively the logic here, but the moaners refuse to see it that way.

"Can't see the wood for the trees" seems like the perfect phrase to describe the various unions.

timsey tiger

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Honestly, it's extremely difficult to do it properly using any other way.

Let's say the teachers.
So you set up a portal and they can register. Grand thats easy. Then you need an approval process.

Let's say everything is wonderful and the principals in each school agree to do it. (They quite likely wouldn't, or would want extra payment, or most would but some wouldn't).

Now you've to decide who gets it. 80% are easy. Then the subs? The cleaner? The janitor? The teacher on long term sick leave? The special needs assistants? The sub who works once a month? The sub who only worked once 3 months ago but is desperate for more hours? The person on year 3 of a 5 year career break? The person who's been on sick leave for years.

When a principal decides to say his wife is also doing a few hours as a secretary? Or the PTA ask the principal to slip their names in . . . How does that get policed?

For every yes you give, therell be at least 10 minutes of checking, probably at 2 levels (on top of all the actual vaccine admin).

For every no you give, you have to have an appeals process and even then you're still risking a media flurry.

Back of an envelope calculation for 100k people.

90% go straight through with a 10min quick check - 15,000 man hours
10% need an hour to check and refuse - 10,000 man hours
Half of those appeal (4500) and need 4 hours to process - 18000 man hours

Were at 43000 man hours to process 100k people and we have multiples of that to do.

24 people working for a year per 100k.
15 if we get the principals or similar to do phase 1 approval for free.

Or we go with age and its straightforward.

Or you could just get the dept. of education to see who they are paying and vaccinate those people.

PhoenixParker

timsey tiger wrote: »

Or you could just get the dept. of education to see who they are paying and vaccinate those people.

Nope. GDPR.

Melanchthon

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Honestly, it's extremely difficult to do it properly using any other way.

Let's say the teachers.
So you set up a portal and they can register. Grand thats easy. Then you need an approval process.

Let's say everything is wonderful and the principals in each school agree to do it. (They quite likely wouldn't, or would want extra payment, or most would but some wouldn't).

Now you've to decide who gets it. 80% are easy. Then the subs? The cleaner? The janitor? The teacher on long term sick leave? The special needs assistants? The sub who works once a month? The sub who only worked once 3 months ago but is desperate for more hours? The person on year 3 of a 5 year career break? The person who's been on sick leave for years.

When a principal decides to say his wife is also doing a few hours as a secretary? Or the PTA ask the principal to slip their names in . . . How does that get policed?

For every yes you give, therell be at least 10 minutes of checking, probably at 2 levels (on top of all the actual vaccine admin).

For every no you give, you have to have an appeals process and even then you're still risking a media flurry.

Back of an envelope calculation for 100k people.

90% go straight through with a 10min quick check - 15,000 man hours
10% need an hour to check and refuse - 10,000 man hours
Half of those appeal (4500) and need 4 hours to process - 18000 man hours

Were at 43000 man hours to process 100k people and we have multiples of that to do.

24 people working for a year per 100k.
15 if we get the principals or similar to do phase 1 approval for free.

Or we go with age and its straightforward.

I think the age idea isn't a bad one but it's also not like this work couldn't have been done last year.

PhoenixParker

Melanchthon wrote: »

I think the age idea isn't a bad one but it's also not like this work couldn't have been done last year.

Then you'd have to recheck everything now.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

...

Lack of money slowed vaccine development
Although the German pharmaceutical company Curevac starts developing a corona vaccine almost at the same time as its competitors, it will still take months for approval. CEO Haas now explains the reasons for the delay.

The Tübingen biotech company Curevac justified the long wait for EU approval of its own corona vaccine with financing problems at the start of development. The lack of financial possibilities at the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2020 was a problem for Curevac, said CEO Franz-Werner Haas of the "Stuttgarter Zeitung".

"In the beginning, we did not have the option of paying suppliers in advance and reserving the necessary equipment and materials, which means making large investments." Money came into the till late - for example through financing rounds, a three-digit million grant from the Federal Ministry of Research and the IPO. Haas emphasized that "we could have been faster if we had the means earlier".

As a counterexample, he cited the US biotech company Moderna, which has long been on the market with its corona vaccine. Moderna received a billion dollars early on in the USA. "The US government has given Moderna a great deal of freedom according to the motto: start developing the vaccine, we know it can also fail, but we have to start. At Curevac we first had to carry out funding rounds to get there," said Haas. "This is about high three-digit million amounts that a biotech company like us did not have so easily available."

Curevac now expects to receive EU approval for its corona vaccine at the beginning of June. "But it is difficult to schedule it precisely because it depends on different criteria," said Haas. An advanced study is currently underway in Europe and Latin America with around 35,000 participants on the effectiveness of the vaccine candidate.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

That's effectively the logic here, but the moaners refuse to see it that way.

"Can't see the wood for the trees" seems like the perfect phrase to describe the various unions.

Nah us "moaners" are more concerned about the time wasting to distract from the missed targets.
This particular "moaner" has pointed out a bunch of times that all this is nonsense and basically busy work until we actually have supply.

Economy on its knees, thousands out of work, thousands missing out on other health screening, missing target after target after target, Christ stop moaning. :rolleyes:

titan18

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Nope. GDPR.

All you have to is get the subjects consent to avoid that. I'm pretty sure most will be fine with DOE providing their contact details to the HSE for a vaccination.

Gile_na_gile

While we are turning the corner and starting to actually see the fabled 'ramp up' and 'game changers', we neverthless have the WHO today criticising the subpar EU rollout of vaccines. We should, of course, be comparing ourselves with the US rather than Francis Drake's crew next door, with the States now at 30% of total population partially vaccinated.

The reasons have been discussed lots already; namely hands-off approach to ramping off production and lack of EC oversight of factories which is the main aspect IMO, and then the beaurocratic disadvantage of collective purchasing and approval but the latter was inevitable.

So with J&J having problems in the US (Coca Cola producers thought they were making Pepsi, i.e. AZ!), how will we ensure nothing like this happens here and that there are no exports in the meantime to cover issues elsewhere? I hope the EC and EMA are on top of this now with export controls and their reported weekly/daily communication with pharmacos. Does anyone know if there are J&J exports from Europe at this time or is the supply only for Europe?

titan18

Gile_na_gile wrote: »

While we are turning the corner and starting to actually see the fabled 'ramp up' and 'game changers', we neverthless have the WHO today criticising the subpar EU rollout of vaccines. We should, of course, be comparing ourselves with the US rather than Francis Drake's crew next door, with the States now at 30% of total population partially vaccinated.

The reasons have been discussed lots already; namely hands-off approach to ramping off production and lack of EC oversight of factories which is the main aspect IMO, and then the beaurocratic disadvantage of collective purchasing and approval but the latter was inevitable.

So with J&J having problems in the US (Coca Cola producers thought they were making Pepsi, i.e. AZ!), how will we ensure nothing like this happens here and that there are no exports in the meantime to cover issues elsewhere? I hope the EC and EMA are on top of this now with export controls and their reported weekly/daily communication with pharmacos. Does anyone know if there are J&J exports from Europe at this time or is the supply only for Europe?

Tbf, WHO would also criticize the rollout if it was fast as it would have meant we were keeping vaccines for ourselves and not exporting them to other nations. It's best to just ignore them.