When will it all end?

Mimon

Gestureapo wrote: »

I'm sure you mean well but you haven't thought this through

Curtailing peoples rights for no reason isn't meaning well, it's fascism.

SoapMcTavish

Dickie10 wrote: »

off licences need to be shut asap, before Easter especially. madness having pubs shut and still people can fuel up on durt cheap alcohol. need to ban sale of drink outright to stop house parties

Is this genuine ?

Herb Powell

Multipass wrote: »

And if they had a full time job which went just before covid let them eat cake on 203 euros. Even unemployment only matters now if it’s covid related. 350 a week would be an amazing way to live from where I am, a bloody fortune.

It's not a fortune in Ireland in 2021.

I'm all open to real criticism (debt it will cause, etc), but come on.

josip

Mimon wrote: »

Minority of people don't play ball and you want the rest of us to suffer.

I actually take offence at this suggestion as I have to work during a pandemic and you want to deny me my bottle of wine on a Friday evening.

There would be some in NPHET who would privately support such a move I think.

Multipass

Herb Powell wrote: »

It's not a fortune in Ireland in 2021.

I'm all open to real criticism (debt it will cause, etc), but come on.

When you live on 203 in Ireland in 2021 because of a time interval of 2 months before covid, damn right it’s a fortune. The prevailing view seems to that Covid unemployment is more worthy, anyone before this time carries shame and deserves poverty, despite the fact that covid has made finding work next to impossible.

Gestureapo

josip wrote: »

There would be some in NPHET who would privately support such a move I think.

If NPHET was in charge of road safety

They'd change the speed limit to 20mph overnite and wipe out road traffic deaths

El_Duderino 09

Gestureapo wrote: »

Is payslips that complicated to check?

Payslips might not be complicated but setting up a system around gathering them and examining them would be time consuming. And given that the priority was to get teh money out quickly, it would have ben counter productive.

Tazz T

Dickie10 wrote: »

off licences need to be shut asap, before Easter especially. madness having pubs shut and still people can fuel up on durt cheap alcohol. need to ban sale of drink outright to stop house parties

Absolute nonsense.

Let me guess, you're anti-alcohol.

El_Duderino 09

opinionated3 wrote: »

Maybe the insinuation that 2021 is doing to be pretty much a write off for any holidays, socialising etc.....

Ah right. I suppose that was only new news to people who were either not paying attention up to now or were screening out information they didn't want to hear. I've seen in this thread that some people misinterpret the news and are the disappointed that their preferred version doesn't happen.

I look forward to hanging out with the lads when the weather warms up, so i don't consider the social side to be a write off. Maybe its a matter of how optimistic or pessimistic you are combined with how realistic you are about what's likely to happen.

The vaccine news this week has been very positive. The provisional news about transmissions by vaccinated people was great. The news about starting trials on some under 18s was great and the increased vaccine supply is great.

Thespoofer

Guys it's like a roller coaster at this stage the whole lot is blending into one big cloud at this stage.

I'm at the stage now and would like the opinions on what would be the worst case scenario in regards opening up ( any virologists reading this thread ? )

For example if we said there is absolutely no way possible, we can have any major restrictions ( I dont mind the small stuff, masks in shops etc ) after say October, November, December 2021 or even further out?

Just a bit of hope, dont care how far out it is, just something defenite.

Or maybe no one can tell for sure.

Samsonsmasher

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Ah right. I suppose that was only new news to people who were either not paying attention up to now or were screening out information they didn't want to hear. I've seen in this thread that some people misinterpret the news and are the disappointed that their preferred version doesn't happen.

I look forward to hanging out with the lads when the weather warms up, so i don't consider the social side to be a write off. Maybe its a matter of how optimistic or pessimistic you are combined with how realistic you are about what's likely to happen.

The vaccine news this week has been very positive. The provisional news about transmissions by vaccinated people was great. The news about starting trials on some under 18s was great and the increased vaccine supply is great.

On the first day of the rollout for 85s and older on Monday only 66 were vaccinated by GPs.

66

Let that sink in.

Tell me this isn't utter lunacy?

Thespoofer

Dickie10 wrote: »

off licences need to be shut asap, before Easter especially. madness having pubs shut and still people can fuel up on durt cheap alcohol. need to ban sale of drink outright to stop house parties

Snow, a lidl shop and a JCB springs to mind when I read this

hynesie08

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

On the first day of the rollout for 85s and older on Monday only 66 were vaccinated by GPs.

66

Let that sink in.

Tell me this isn't utter lunacy?

On the same day 1500 people got their first dose and 6500 got their second dose........

El_Duderino 09

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

On the first day of the rollout for 85s and older on Monday only 66 were vaccinated by GPs.

66

Let that sink in.

Tell me this isn't utter lunacy?

I'm not sure what you want me to do with that information. It's not a lot to go on. What were the limiting factors? lack of vaccine, lack of over 85 in gp's surgeries?

I'm not sure why you quoted me that post to make your point. It didn't address anything i said in my post.

It's funny that a couple of weeks ago you were called a doom and gloom monger for pointing out the reality that this thing will not end during the summer. Now any bit of good news is seen as bad news because it won't lead to the end of restrictions during the summer. I think it's clear who the doom and gloom people are at the moment.

Micky 32

Tazz T wrote: »

Absolute nonsense.

Let me guess, you're anti-alcohol.

I’d hazard a guess that you won’t be bumping into Dickie in Centra buying a bottle of wine. :pac:

Irish_peppa

We need to order a few of these Vaccine booths of the chinese

https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1006412/robot-inoculators-accelerate-chinas-vaccine-rollout

Tazz T

Thespoofer wrote: »

Guys it's like a roller coaster at this stage the whole lot is blending into one big cloud at this stage.

I'm at the stage now and would like the opinions on what would be the worst case scenario in regards opening up ( any virologists reading this thread ? )

For example if we said there is absolutely no way possible, we can have any major restrictions ( I dont mind the small stuff, masks in shops etc ) after say October, November, December 2021 or even further out?

Just a bit of hope, dont care how far out it is, just something defenite.

Or maybe no one can tell for sure.

I don't think any virologist can help you (although I did immunology at uni ), because no one can predict what the gov will do. We could be in double digits and still have no pubs and be fined for travelling while the rest of Europe is open this summer.

Based on historical epidemiology (a lot of people don't realise that there has been quite a few coronavirus pandemics through history), back in November I reckoned we could reasonably expect this to end in June of this year, but a number of factors meant the 3rd wave started a month early than anticipated. This potentially could be all over in May now.

There may be a blip between now and autumn, as restrictions ease, followed by a blip at Xmas as those first vaxxed (the elderly) require boosters (I suspect this will happen every year and will probably be given at the same time as the annual flu jab, maybe incorporated with it). But there is no historical precedent for a new wave and the vaccine would negate that anyway. Variants are an issue, but when infections are low, variants will be much slower to occur and easier to deal with.

The problem is, while I'm sure NYPHET have the data and the expertise that tells them this may very well be the case, they will play it very safe as will the government. So if it is coming to an end, they'll say it's the restrictions working and continue with the restrictions that are more severe than actually needed. They can't be seen to get it wrong.

Tazz T

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’d hazard a guess that you won’t be bumping into Dickie in Centra buying a bottle of wine. :pac:

I hope he's not in my AA group either.

Bigfatmichael

Dickie10 wrote: »

off licences need to be shut asap, before Easter especially. madness having pubs shut and still people can fuel up on durt cheap alcohol. need to ban sale of drink outright to stop house parties

Suicides would Jump the roof, hospitals would be 10 times more overwhelmed than their peak with Covid with people detoxing, illegal drug use would spiral.

You don't really live in the real world

El_Duderino 09

I know the UK is having problems with ethnic minorities being much less inclined ot get the vaccine than the white population. Has any similar research been done into Irish people's sentiments towards the vaccine?

https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-o...-world-1152417

Trinity Professor Luke O’Neill...... We are now “taking the first tentative steps towards the endgame” of the coronavirus pandemic........... the Trinity Immunologist said the world could finally leave the pandemic behind in six to nine months.

I reckon we'll see some restrictions throughout the Summer and into Autumn.
We should all going well be able to do some travelling to other counties over the Summer for staycations etc

Perhaps a situation like last August for the Summer of 2021?

With ... 12 weeks between doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine we won't have everyone vaccinated for quite a few months let.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-o...il-may-1150541 ............

You can see now why it took a while for EU to approve the AstraZeneca vaccine, it was not at all clear about best practise for the dosing intervals.

!2 weeks between doses for max efficacy is a bit of a sh1tter if they won't consider folk "vaccinated" until they've the second one complete. Hopefully we get the J&J one soon.

hynesie08

Bigfatmichael wrote: »

Suicides would Jump the roof, hospitals would be 10 times more overwhelmed than their peak with Covid with people detoxing, illegal drug use would spiral.

You don't really live in the real world

I completely agree with him............

Just give me 12 hours to get a van and the name of a grave in Newry that needs tending........

Thespoofer

Thespoofer wrote: »

Guys it's like a roller coaster at this stage the whole lot is blending into one big cloud at this stage.

I'm at the stage now and would like the opinions on what would be the worst case scenario in regards opening up ( any virologists reading this thread ? )

For example if we said there is absolutely no way possible, we can have any major restrictions ( I dont mind the small stuff, masks in shops etc ) after say October, November, December 2021 or even further out?

Just a bit of hope, dont care how far out it is, just something defenite.

Or maybe no one can tell for sure.

I said last year you're looking at restrictions through most of 2021, with levels 3-5 (and lockdowns) until there's 70-80% of the population vaccinated. Others were saying we'd be back in pubs at this stage. Not a chance.

Bill Gates is generally right on the money in regards to how things have played out. Forget conspiracy theories and the like, but based on what he's said recently, you're looking at more of the same for most of the year. He cited the 70-80% compliance figure last year, and also mentioned a third shot will be required to cover some of the newer variants/mutations.

Therefore, my opinion is that we'll see restrictions and lockdowns until we reach that 70-80% figure. That'll take most of the year, possibly carrying over into next year, depending on uptake/supply.

I don't think there'll be any concerts, nightclubs etc in 2021. Based on the very conservative approach our government have taken, I just cannot see them allow hundreds/thousands of people packing into venues. They're already talking about social distancing and masking continuing regardless, so I think the above is all off the table.

El_Duderino 09

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I said last year you're looking at restrictions through most of 2021, with levels 3-5 (and lockdowns) until there's 70-80% of the population vaccinated. Others were saying we'd be back in pubs at this stage. Not a chance.

Bill Gates is generally right on the money in regards to how things have played out. Forget conspiracy theories and the like, but based on what he's said recently, you're looking at more of the same for most of the year. He cited the 70-80% compliance figure last year, and also mentioned a third shot will be required to cover some of the newer variants/mutations.

Therefore, my opinion is that we'll see restrictions and lockdowns until we reach that 70-80% figure. That'll take most of the year, possibly carrying over into next year, depending on uptake/supply.

I don't think there'll be any concerts, nightclubs etc in 2021. Based on the very conservative approach our government have taken, I just cannot see them allow hundreds/thousands of people packing into venues. They're already talking about social distancing and masking continuing regardless, so I think the above is all off the table.

Yeah that sounds about right. 70-80% of the population vaccinated is a pretty higher bar. They will need to have vaccinated a big proportion of children for that to happen and the vaccines haven’t been approved for children yet. Trials starting now and they hope to have approval by the end of the year. So we’re not realistically talking about reaching 70-80% of the total population by the until the of the year at the earliest.

Maybe things will go better than planned. Who knows. But most likely looking at restrictions into next winter and hopefully have a clear run at 2022 when the weather warms and pretty much everyone is vaccinated except the anti vaxers.

Samsonsmasher

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah that sounds about right. 70-80% of the population vaccinated is a pretty higher bar. They will need to have vaccinated a big proportion of children for that to happen and the vaccines haven’t been approved for children yet. Trials starting now and they hope to have approval by the end of the year. So we’re not realistically talking about reaching 70-80% of the total population by the until the of the year at the earliest.

Maybe things will go better than planned. Who knows. But most likely looking at restrictions into next winter and hopefully have a clear run at 2022 when the weather warms and pretty much everyone is vaccinated except the anti vaxers.

There will still be cases and deaths and this will be used to continue restrictions and lockdowns.

A large portion of society will continue to wear masks use sanitizer and stay at home for the rest of their lives.

They will also demand that everyone else does.

markodaly

Deleted User wrote: »

I said last year you're looking at restrictions through most of 2021, with levels 3-5 (and lockdowns) until there's 70-80% of the population vaccinated. Others were saying we'd be back in pubs at this stage. Not a chance.

Bill Gates is generally right on the money in regards to how things have played out. Forget conspiracy theories and the like, but based on what he's said recently, you're looking at more of the same for most of the year. He cited the 70-80% compliance figure last year, and also mentioned a third shot will be required to cover some of the newer variants/mutations.

Therefore, my opinion is that we'll see restrictions and lockdowns until we reach that 70-80% figure. That'll take most of the year, possibly carrying over into next year, depending on uptake/supply.

I don't think there'll be any concerts, nightclubs etc in 2021. Based on the very conservative approach our government have taken, I just cannot see them allow hundreds/thousands of people packing into venues. They're already talking about social distancing and masking continuing regardless, so I think the above is all off the table.

Yeap agree with most of this.

Anyone could see weeks ago that this year was going to be a tough one and the pandemic wasn't going to disappear in a few weeks, like some hoped. The end game is coming, but its going to be long and drawn out.

Silentcorner

Can I ask a question, if we have a few dozen cases a day, are we still considering that a pandemic?

Micky 32

markodaly wrote: »

Yeap agree with most of this.

Anyone could see weeks ago that this year was going to be a tough one and the pandemic wasn't going to disappear in a few weeks, like some hopedThe end game is coming, but its going to be long and drawn out.

Why do you keep posting this condescending exaggerated nonsense? Show me posts where some have said “ in a few weeks”? Or do you post this shyte to make you seem more relevent on here or something?

Samsonsmasher

Samsonsmasher wrote: »

There will still be cases and deaths and this will be used to continue restrictions and lockdowns.

A large portion of society will continue to wear masks use sanitizer and stay at home for the rest of their lives.

They will also demand that everyone else does.

They can stay at home all they want but despite some restrictions we'll be out and about in about 6 months ...... pubs will likely be open also in some shape or form IMO.

Thespoofer

Tazz T wrote: »

I don't think any virologist can help you (although I did immunology at uni ), because no one can predict what the gov will do. We could be in double digits and still have no pubs and be fined for travelling while the rest of Europe is open this summer.

Based on historical epidemiology (a lot of people don't realise that there has been quite a few coronavirus pandemics through history), back in November I reckoned we could reasonably expect this to end in June of this year, but a number of factors meant the 3rd wave started a month early than anticipated. This potentially could be all over in May now.

There may be a blip between now and autumn, as restrictions ease, followed by a blip at Xmas as those first vaxxed (the elderly) require boosters (I suspect this will happen every year and will probably be given at the same time as the annual flu jab, maybe incorporated with it). But there is no historical precedent for a new wave and the vaccine would negate that anyway. Variants are an issue, but when infections are low, variants will be much slower to occur and easier to deal with.

The problem is, while I'm sure NYPHET have the data and the expertise that tells them this may very well be the case, they will play it very safe as will the government. So if it is coming to an end, they'll say it's the restrictions working and continue with the restrictions that are more severe than actually needed. They can't be seen to get it wrong.

Thanks for taking the time to post this.