Government flip flops / school closures

Rosita

notwhoyouthink wrote: »

It doesn't actually matter how many are diagnosed,

That's an interesting new depth in the denial stakes!

wirelessdude01

notwhoyouthink wrote: »

It doesn't actually matter how many are diagnosed, the procedures that applied and worked well in October and November will work in January. The cases are artificially high due to lags in reporting, and I expect they will even out soon.

Go on then, tell us what the nonartificially high numbers are so.

Smacruairi

notwhoyouthink wrote: »

It doesn't actually matter how many are diagnosed, the procedures that applied and worked well in October and November will work in January. The cases are artificially high due to lags in reporting, and I expect they will even out soon.

The Jim corr thread is over there. The numbers are so high at the moment it broke he graph

shesty

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Go on then, tell us what the nonartificially high numbers are so.

No, I think I know what that poster means.If you have been seeing the swab numbers for recent weeks, you can see the jump in the raw data, in the background, even if it is not 100% accurate.The days they were reporting 700 or so cases on the news, they were actually over 1k swabs, then over 2k, then it jumped to 5k pretty quickly.Even today, swab data is about 5100, reported cases are over 6k.Those extra cases don't actually matter in one way, because essentially they are history and don't count towards the day to day rate of change by now.

If you are graphing the numbers using the swab data, the trajectory started a week ago up to the 5k + region, and has hovered there ever since.But because nobody is looking at the swabs, only hearing case numbers, it sounds like we have done a massive jump in the space of about 3 days when really....we haven't.

It is hard to explain without diagrams (!) But essentially, they would actually be better to say look, forget about this infamous "backlog".Based on swab data, our line started at point X of about 1000 back around the 20th somewhere, and then rose upwards quite dramatically from there.It didn't jump from 700 up to 5000 in the space of 4 days or so, because that would be extremely worrying -it was much closer to 5k than anyone realised for several days before the media started reporting it.But essentially, those backlog cases are now irrelevant in terms of tracking the day to day change in numbers -they are "gone" so to speak, and they shouldn't be muddying the waters by throwing out random numbers each evening, because they are just creating awful confusion.Those daily case numbers mean next to nothing now.

Swab data is available at the link below for anyone who doesn't know, and there are charts tracking the swab numbers vs the case numbers at the bottom of the page, which explain better what I mean.Obviously the backlog cases matter in the sense that they mean our hospitals are seeing far more Covid patients, and that knock -on effect, but in terms of the reported case numbers day to day, they do not matter and should be left in history at this point.

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/api/swabs/

Outside of that, the decision to move to L5 has now been made, and tbh, tweaking it to include a 2km limit, or shutting construction sites or click and collect is probably going to produce very negligible gains in terms of reducing infections.All we can do right now is sit and wait out the next few weeks, there really is nothing else to do.

carr62

It seems to me that people on here know about education - I certainly don't! But I have a son in 6th year, and am very high risk of Covid complications myself. My son has been quite anxious about Covid since it started, very concerned that he might bring it home. That eased a bit over the past few months, but he is worried again now that the numbers have risen. I must admit I'm concerned enough that I won't be sending him back to school until the virus situation is more manageable. My question is, do teachers expect the Leaving Cert to go ahead this year? The reason I ask is that I feel I'm always on at my son to study, and I know I'm adding to his stress by reminding him how close the exams are. He's missed so much with the last closure that he really needs to work hard if he is going to get through them. Should I just relax about the whole thing if it's likely to end up being an average of his school grade, instead of the Leaving Cert. He's a great kid who does a lot for me, so I hate to be on his back about this all the time. He's worried enough about the possibility of me getting Covid. I'm hoping they might end up giving them an average of their school marks perhaps, or am I just clutching at straws!

History Queen

carr62 wrote: »

It seems to me that people on here know about education - I certainly don't! But I have a son in 6th year, and am very high risk of Covid complications myself. My son has been quite anxious about Covid since it started, very concerned that he might bring it home. That eased a bit over the past few months, but he is worried again now that the numbers have risen. I must admit I'm concerned enough that I won't be sending him back to school until the virus situation is more manageable. My question is, do teachers expect the Leaving Cert to go ahead this year? The reason I ask is that I feel I'm always on at my son to study, and I know I'm adding to his stress by reminding him how close the exams are. He's missed so much with the last closure that he really needs to work hard if he is going to get through them. Should I just relax about the whole thing if it's likely to end up being an average of his school grade, instead of the Leaving Cert. He's a great kid who does a lot for me, so I hate to be on his back about this all the time. He's worried enough about the possibility of me getting Covid. I'm hoping they might end up giving them an average of their school marks perhaps, or am I just clutching at straws!

Sorry to hear of your situation. I'm a secondary school teacher. I want to begin by saying none of us can say with certainty what will happen with exams but i would expect huge opposition to predicted grades after the farce of last year.

Edit: as regards study, consistently plugging away is a good way to go about it but anything is better than nothing.

rainbowtrout

notwhoyouthink wrote: »

It doesn't actually matter how many are diagnosed, the procedures that applied and worked well in October and November will work in January. The cases are artificially high due to lags in reporting, and I expect they will even out soon.

Are you working for the government or something? What procedures worked well in October and November? Cases were still in the 300-400 range when the Level 5 restrictions were lifted.

The cases being reported in the last few days are not coming from a backlog from 2 months ago, they are coming from a few days ago. They are still active cases. You could half today's numbers and say that half of them came from the few days across Christmas when numbers were underreported, it still leaves the numbers high across all those days, higher than any daily report since last March.

Rosita

shesty wrote: »

No, I think I know what that poster means.If you have been seeing the swab numbers for recent weeks, you can see the jump in the raw data, in the background, even if it is not 100% accurate.The days they were reporting 700 or so cases on the news, they were actually over 1k swabs, then over 2k, then it jumped to 5k pretty quickly.Even today, swab data is about 5100, reported cases are over 6k.Those extra cases don't actually matter in one way, because essentially they are history and don't count towards the day to day rate of change by now.

If you are graphing the numbers using the swab data, the trajectory started a week ago up to the 5k + region, and has hovered there ever since.But because nobody is looking at the swabs, only hearing case numbers, it sounds like we have done a massive jump in the space of about 3 days when really....we haven't.

It is hard to explain without diagrams (!) But essentially, they would actually be better to say look, forget about this infamous "backlog".Based on swab data, our line started at point X of about 1000 back around the 20th somewhere, and then rose upwards quite dramatically from there.It didn't jump from 700 up to 5000 in the space of 4 days or so, because that would be extremely worrying -it was much closer to 5k than anyone realised for several days before the media started reporting it.But essentially, those backlog cases are now irrelevant in terms of tracking the day to day change in numbers -they are "gone" so to speak, and they shouldn't be muddying the waters by throwing out random numbers each evening, because they are just creating awful confusion.Those daily case numbers mean next to nothing now.

Swab data is available at the link below for anyone who doesn't know, and there are charts tracking the swab numbers vs the case numbers at the bottom of the page, which explain better what I mean.Obviously the backlog cases matter in the sense that they mean our hospitals are seeing far more Covid patients, and that knock -on effect, but in terms of the reported case numbers day to day, they do not matter and should be left in history at this point.

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/api/swabs/

Outside of that, the decision to move to L5 has now been made, and tbh, tweaking it to include a 2km limit, or shutting construction sites or click and collect is probably going to produce very negligible gains in terms of reducing infections.All we can do right now is sit and wait out the next few weeks, there really is nothing else to do.

To be honest the precise day to day trajectory doesn't concern me. Its really what are the restrictions and when are they happening. I assume generally speaking that restrictions follow infection spread. I expect the people making the decisions to grapple with whether the numbers are 'pretend' or not. I definitely get the impression that infections have increased in the last week. I don't understand the other posters claim that it doesn't matter how many are diagnosed. If that's the case I'd like my local pub to open and I'll ramble down there, raise a glass, and wonder what all the fuss has been about.

wirelessdude01

All exams cancelled in England.

km79

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

All exams cancelled in England.

Uh oh

lulublue22

km79 wrote: »

Uh oh

Don’t worry we will have by hook or by crook until we don’t.

Treppen

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

All exams cancelled in England.

For those who missed the Xmas panto...
.
.
Ohhh no we won't....

shesty

Rosita wrote: »

To be honest the precise day to day trajectory doesn't concern me. Its really what are the restrictions and when are they happening. I assume generally speaking that restrictions follow infection spread. I expect the people making the decisions to grapple with whether the numbers are 'pretend' or not. I definitely get the impression that infections have increased in the last week. I don't understand the other posters claim that it doesn't matter how many are diagnosed. If that's the case I'd like my local pub to open and I'll ramble down there, raise a glass, and wonder what all the fuss has been about.

Case numbers are what the decisions are being based on.Can't say they massively concern me either, they are what they are, however there is a degree of hysteria out there based on case numbers that are incorrect. The bottom line is they are very high, end of, but if anyone else was reporting daily data that was outright wrong, they would probably lose their jobs.

An Ri rua

Postgrad10 wrote: »

Norma’s headlining the rte news site. Schools will open on the 11th. I don’t believe her.

As Jim Doyle was wont to say :-

Good Ol' Norma!!

Junior Ministers, including Sr Joseph's, wheeled out to tow the line while Cabinet ministers informally soften the media up for school closures...

French Toast

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

All exams cancelled in England.

Proper order.

Meanwhile, we don't know what's happening next week.

jdon72

According to RTE, there's a plan to close schools until the end of January

TheValeyard

Well, this sucks.

jdon72

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

All exams cancelled in England.

They won't do the same here unless they've a plan that's not predicted grades

History Queen

jdon72 wrote: »

They won't do the same here unless they've a plan that's not predicted grades

I hope you're right.

jdon72

History Queen wrote: »

I hope you're right.

Well they've nothing solid to go on for predicting current 6th years, as they only really had half a year of normal learning. Plus most teachers seem to be against predicting after last year. The junior cert, however, could easily be cancelled and probably will be.

km79

jdon72 wrote: »

Well they've nothing solid to go on for predicting current 6th years, as they only really had half a year of normal learning. Plus most teachers seem to be against predicting after last year. The junior cert, however, could easily be cancelled and probably will be.

And I wouldn’t bet on mocks going ahead either
I think the LC will go ahead
JC won’t
Spread the resources , available space etc

History Queen

jdon72 wrote: »

Well they've nothing solid to go on for predicting current 6th years, as they only really had half a year of normal learning. Plus most teachers seem to be against predicting after last year. The junior cert, however, could easily be cancelled and probably will be.

Very true. I cannot express just how opposed I am to predicted grades.

amacca

jdon72 wrote: »

They won't do the same here unless they've a plan that's not predicted grades

I wouldnt be so sure about that.....on the plus side for them

saved them a nice bit of pocket change last year

joe southside in the private school didnt take the court action any further after he got sorted

this time they could tweak the algorithm to better account for grind schools having non national-average results to reduce above problem

they can give it as a solution if the usual kids are stressed brigade kick up enough we need "certainty" outrage on media outlets

there is a precedent for it now as of this evening in the UK......+ weve always been mad to follow any plans the UK system has regardless of their worth (to education anyway):pac:

jdon72

amacca wrote: »

I wouldnt be so sure about that.....on the plus side for them

saved them a nice bit of pocket change last year

joe southside in the private school didnt take the court action any further after he got sorted

this time they could tweak the algorithm to better account for grind schools having non national-average results to reduce above problem

they can give it as a solution if the usual kids are stressed brigade kick up enough we need "certainty" outrage on media outlets

there is a precedent for it now as of this evening in the UK......+ weve always been mad to follow any plans the UK system has regardless of their worth (to education anyway):pac:

Problem is that they don't have enough proof to accurately predict grades - not even mocks. And the UK have more continuous elements than Ireland. Plus, norma foley seems more stubborn than joe mchugh on LC stuff

Smacruairi

Also after all the private schools got shafted to bump up the DEIS schools I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't just boost their results accordingly.

amacca

jdon72 wrote: »

Problem is that they don't have enough proof to accurately predict grades - not even mocks. And the UK have more continuous elements than Ireland. Plus, norma foley seems more stubborn than joe mchugh on LC stuff

Ah In fairness your probably right.....i wouldn't put anything past them however.

km79

Last summers online “exams “ were meaningless too
Said it at the time that I hoped they would never be needed

Leftwaffe

Will it be holidays or remote learning until the end of January? That’s the only question that remains.

Personally I’ll take holidays no no problem if it means we can get students back safely and give them a proper stab at the year right through to July or August, whatever it may be.

I’ll tackle remote learning as well but I really think it’s just not a fair system. A lot of stuff going on in homes during this period, some students don’t have devices, internet, etc.

km79

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

Will it be holidays or remote learning until the end of January? That’s the only question that remains.

Personally I’ll take holidays no no problem if it means we can get students back safely and give them a proper stab at the year right through to July or August, whatever it may be.

I’ll tackle remote learning as well but I really think it’s just not a fair system. A lot of stuff going on in homes during this period, some students don’t have devices, internet, etc.

It will be remote learning
This is what we have been training and preparing for since the start of the year !
It will be for a short period imo

French Toast

Remote learning would be preferred by everyone over extended holidays.

While online classes are a pain in the arse for us teachers, re-organising the school term would be a minefield for the Department.