Government flip flops / school closures

Bobtheman

Here is my advice:
Discount all ministerial interviews except those given at the end of a cabinet meeting. Because they will say one thing in the morning and another in the afternoon.
Look at McGrath yesterday morning - no school closures /delayed openings.
I can't see schools opening Jan 11th and I would discount all interviews until the next cabinet meeting.
Why the stupid idiots can't say " I don't know" is beyond me.

Postgrad10

Norma’s headlining the rte news site. Schools will open on the 11th. I don’t believe her.

Treppen

Postgrad10 wrote: »

Norma’s headlining the rte news site. Schools will open on the 11th. I don’t believe her.

Who?

Icsics

Postgrad10 wrote: »

Norma’s headlining the rte news site. Schools will open on the 11th. I don’t believe her.

Neither do I, it’ll be ‘blended learning’ or exam classes only

bubblemassage

Does anyone know how this affects Further Education? Can't figure out when I'm back in work now...

penny piper

Postgrad10 wrote: »

Norma’s headlining the rte news site. Schools will open on the 11th. I don’t believe her.

I can't see how schools can re open January 11th.....isn't this new strain of virus which we have been told is now here ... highly infectious in young people...If there's to be a "full level 5
lockdown" schools must be included throughout this period....schools should have been ready to go online...Dept of Education Minister's fault.....

afkasurfjunkie

They are saying now that close contacts will not be tested and will have to quarantine for 14 days instead. That would be a recipe for disaster in classrooms. Schools won’t be opening if that’s the case surely?

babybuilder

Postgrad10 wrote: »

Norma’s headlining the rte news site. Schools will open on the 11th. I don’t believe her.

These people (and I choose my words carefully) are deranged and/or seriously mentally ill. They are treating parents, school staff and children with utter contempt. Ultimately, the office of Taoiseach is responsible for the rapid onset of transmission as it was decisions before Christmas that brought about the latest crises. Shame on the office.

Rosita

Bobtheman wrote: »

Here is my advice:
Discount all ministerial interviews except those given at the end of a cabinet meeting. Because they will say one thing in the morning and another in the afternoon.
Look at McGrath yesterday morning - no school closures /delayed openings.
I can't see schools opening Jan 11th and I would discount all interviews until the next cabinet meeting.
Why the stupid idiots can't say " I don't know" is beyond me.

It's almost weird to read this post as I more or less decided today to ignore all comments on schools reopening. Politicians lie they way other people breathe. Last March there were "no plans to close schools" day after day and then they were closed without even a day's notice.

I heard on the radio that it was expected that if they could get the R number down to 1.4 we'd still have 3,000 cases per day on January 23rd. That's the scenario we are looking at. No politician should be believed on this. Listen only to facts because everything else is lies.

They normally recruit oral examiners by early December. They haven't even advertised the jobs at this stage. Read into that what you will.

TheValeyard

The 11th is a holding pattern to see how the country is doing.

babybuilder

TheValeyard wrote: »

The 11th is a holding pattern to see how the country is doing.

Don't think for a minute that they know what they are doing.

TheValeyard

babybuilder wrote: »

Don't think for a minute that they know what they are doing.

Oh it's totally like Die Hard 2

Random sample

She didn’t say schools would reopen, she said it was their firm intention to open them.... I read that as it won’t happen.

SEC admin staff were still dealing with 2020 exams in December, I will put the delay on recruitment down to that.

I don’t see us going back on the 11th, but I’d like to know soon so I can start readjusting my January plans for online.

6-8th seems to be extra holidays, but private schools are teaching online to their timetables, so the divide continues to widen there.

Wanderer78

Bobtheman wrote:

Here is my advice: Discount all ministerial interviews except those given at the end of a cabinet meeting. Because they will say one thing in the morning and another in the afternoon. Look at McGrath yesterday morning - no school closures /delayed openings. I can't see schools opening Jan 11th and I would discount all interviews until the next cabinet meeting. Why the stupid idiots can't say " I don't know" is beyond me.

We elect them on the basis of being capable leaders, but what we want is all knowing, and perfect robots.....

kippy

It amazes me that a lot of people don't get this.
The government are making decisions based on advice and this advice is based on numerous inputs, one of which is numbers getting the virus in the community. This is not a fixed number and is fluid.
I would expect changing advice/flip flopping/whatever you want to call it to change with the numbers.
All that can be done here is to go with the flow and manage as best you can.

I am not saying the government/department are great, many issues remain, but you simply cannot hammer them for being hazy on certain things.....

Random sample

kippy wrote: »

I am not saying the government/department are great, many issues remain, but you simply cannot hammer them for being hazy on certain things.....

It’s not that they are hazy, it’s that they are absolutely 100% sure, until they are not. People would be happy with hazy!

That’s why the by hook or by crook comment from varadkar keeps coming back, people assumed that to mean sit down state exams were definitely happening.

kippy

Random sample wrote: »

It’s not that they are hazy, it’s that they are absolutely 100% sure, until they are not. People would be happy with hazy!

That’s why the by hook or by crook comment from varadkar keeps coming back, people assumed that to mean sit down state exams were definitely happening.

They are hazy.
Positions change based on changing environmental factors. Particularly when it comes to public health.
And TBF you have to accept what the situation is and deal with it as best you can.

Bobtheman

The news this morning of a back log of Cases that have tested positive is worrying. 4k

ethical

Norma is a puppet for the Civil Servants behind her and they are not fools.Of course the open/close/blended(a word I hate!!!) debate will continue as things are VERY fluid as regards the virus.

The Dept saved an absolute fortune by NOT having JC or LC last year.Dont bet against them doing the same thing this year.(Scotland has already cancelled their exams as far as I know.) You can be sure Paschal and Co. are looking closely at the figures.Also bear in mind that Normas Dept.got away with it as regards the "many court cases" that were supposed to arise out of the grading system used last year.Jonathan and Amelias parents did not take the Dept to court eventhough they had paid out a fortune in grinds etc so that their offspring could get into Law and Medicine. The parents were "happy enough" with the outcome. Norma was even happier! Expect her to be told to try the same for this present year..........and sure if the parents are not happy they might take a case.Its a gamble,it worked last year.

Rosita

kippy wrote: »

It amazes me that a lot of people don't get this.
The government are making decisions based on advice and this advice is based on numerous inputs, one of which is numbers getting the virus in the community. This is not a fixed number and is fluid.
I would expect changing advice/flip flopping/whatever you want to call it to change with the numbers.
All that can be done here is to go with the flow and manage as best you can.

I am not saying the government/department are great, many issues remain, but you simply cannot hammer them for being hazy on certain things.....

Haziness isn't a problem. It's the mock certainty that's the problem and which gives rise to the credibility deficit.

Random sample

Bobtheman wrote: »

The news this morning of a back log of Cases that have tested positive is worrying. 4k

That was mentioned at the presser yesterday. The positive swabs have been over 2000 for the past 3 days. Hopefully they will have that backlog reported today so it doesn’t keep building.

Rosita

[quote="Random sample;115765219"

SEC admin staff were still dealing with 2020 exams in December, I will put the delay on recruitment down to that.

.[/quote]

I rang the SEC a month ago and I was told it had not been confirmed to them that the Oral exams were taking place hence the delay in advertising.

It'd take all of five minutes to modify the previous year's advert and put it up on the website. Doubt it was workload that was the problem.

In fairness I wouldn't read too much into the lack of advertising for recruitment - there's still lots of time. But it does send out a message that the response to the current situation is less than sure-footed.

Rosita

Bobtheman wrote: »

The news this morning of a back log of Cases that have tested positive is worrying. 4k

It doesn't do much for confidence when they can't even record the cases efficiently. At what stage will be able to look at figures and believe them?

Random sample

Rosita wrote: »

It doesn't do much for confidence when they can't even record the cases efficiently. At what stage will be able to look at figures and believe them?

When they match the swab results which are released every afternoon.

They haven’t tried to hide the backlog. It has happened a few times and the information is freely available.

When it’s happened before it was because they were waiting to work out clusters before announcing figures.

kippy

Rosita wrote: »

Haziness isn't a problem. It's the mock certainty that's the problem and which gives rise to the credibility deficit.

You can't please everyone.

Random sample

kippy wrote: »

You can't please everyone.

Do you think some people want to be lied to?

Rosita

kippy wrote: »

You can't please everyone.

Indeed not. But telling the truth would at least provide some kind of moral framework around public policy. There are too many "by hook or by crook" moments. I suppose at least Foley's "full intention" is at least a linguistic nod to reality. Good sign she won't go far in politics.

kippy

Random sample wrote: »

Do you think some people want to be lied to?

Some people want certainty - some people want realism.
The realism is there can be no certainty in this.

People get "lied to" all the time. In this instance, anyone who cannot see the wood from the trees heading into our tenth month of this and make up their own mind on what is likely to happen, probably needs to review their information sources.

kippy

Rosita wrote: »

Indeed not. But telling the truth would at least provide some kind of moral framework around public policy. There are too many "by hook or by crook" moments. I suppose at least Foley's "full intention" is at least a linguistic nod to reality. Good sign she won't go far in politics.

I don't disagree but that type of retoric is almost everywhere - a "them and us" or a "taking sides" attitude - doesn't really help anyone.
But again, you cannot please everyone and even getting a simple message out to people often gets lost in translation for a certain portion of intended recipients.

Rosita

kippy wrote: »

Some people want certainty - some people want realism.

Maybe they could do alternative broadcasts? Maybe press the red button if you want realism instead of certainty. There must be a way around this to cater for such a split society.

Alternatively they could just be honest and we would have certainty that we are getting realism?

Rosita

kippy wrote: »

I don't disagree but that type of retoric is almost everywhere - a "them and us" or a "taking sides" attitude - doesn't really help anyone.
.

Yeah, some of the adversarial interviewers don't help in their desperation to get a loose soundbite. It only encourages entrenchment in politically palatable "certainties".

scrubs33

Rosita wrote: »

Indeed not. But telling the truth would at least provide some kind of moral framework around public policy. There are too many "by hook or by crook" moments. I suppose at least Foley's "full intention" is at least a linguistic nod to reality. Good sign she won't go far in politics.

I’ve been talking to some well connected party faithful locally and she is being talked about in terms of future leadership roles both within the party and at government level. Her standing is very high within FF.

Rosita

scrubs33 wrote: »

I’ve been talking to some well connected party faithful locally and she is being talked about in terms of future leadership roles both within the party and at government level. Her standing is very high within FF.

The comment was meant more as a reference to the nature of truth in politics rather than a genuine comment on her potential career but given that she was elected in the fifth seat of a five seat constituency and fell further behind with every count I wouldn't get carried away with notions of future leadership roles at government level.

Rosita

Rosita wrote: »

The comment was meant more as a reference to the nature of truth in politics rather than a genuine comment on her potential career but given that she was elected in the fifth seat of a five seat constituency and fell further behind with every count I wouldn't get carried away with notions of future leadership roles at government level.

This is FF we're talking about. The party of.... Well smokes and daggers

Rosita

Random sample wrote: »

When they match the swab results which are released every afternoon.

They haven’t tried to hide the backlog. It has happened a few times and the information is freely available.

When it’s happened before it was because they were waiting to work out clusters before announcing figures.

But this can potentially create problems down the line. For example if we are at 5,000 cases per day on 10 January some people might raise an eyebrow at schools reopening the following day. But these might be cases that have not been recorded in time. We then have no way of knowing the true figure.

So while no doubt there are multitudinous procedural reasons (in reality probably nothing more complex than not enough staff) why figures are distorted it might be good if at least they were believable. In all the smoke and mirrors, bluffing, blatant lying and weasel words that have been in evidence over the past nine months at least we have had little reason to doubt the veracity of the figures. Until now.

Treppen

scrubs33 wrote: »

I’ve been talking to some well connected party faithful locally and she is being talked about in terms of future leadership roles both within the party and at government level. Her standing is very high within FF.

In fairness the bar is pretty low in FF.

kippy

Rosita wrote: »

But this can potentially create problems down the line. For example if we are at 5,000 cases per day on 10 January some people might raise an eyebrow at schools reopening the following day. But these might be cases that have not been recorded in time. We then have no way of knowing the true figure.

So while no doubt there are multitudinous procedural reasons (in reality probably nothing more complex than not enough staff) why figures are distorted it might be good if at least they were believable. In all the smoke and mirrors, bluffing, blatant lying and weasel words that have been in evidence over the past nine months at least we have had little reason to doubt the veracity of the figures. Until now.

Figures have been off before and are never a true indication of where things are at.......
In all fairness - this is the reason why we have been trying to keep the numbers low - at some point systems come under major pressure and break.

Rosita

kippy wrote: »

Figures have been off before and are never a true indication of where things are at.......
In all fairness - this is the reason why we have been trying to keep the numbers low - at some point systems come under major pressure and break.

The reason for keeping figures low is obvious but if they can't be believed anyway the significance of figures, high or low, is reduced.

If figures are being used as a means of communicating the impact of the virus at a given point in time then they have to be reliable. They are taking at the moment about 3,000 cases per day as a true figure but they are stating around 1,500/1,600. That's a discrepancy of 100% which is a gap of such magnitude at that level of figure not really catered for credibly by any explanation. It's just too much.

If they are not a "true indication" of where things are at then what have we to rely upon for a reliable reflection of reality - the depth of George Lee's frown?

lulublue22

kippy wrote: »

It amazes me that a lot of people don't get this.


I am not saying the government/department are great, many issues remain, but you simply cannot hammer them for being hazy on certain things.....

Hazy ?

Norma -
there will be no deviation to the standardised school year. ( due to deteriorating PH situation xmas hols extended)
Full Intention to return on 11th Jan

Minister of Justice - schools will reopen on the 11th Jan

Random minister on Newstalk - answered Q re school closures once cases hit 2500 a day.

MM - schools are safe are extending xmas hols to 11th Jan to give 10 clear nights of increased restrictions


Meanwhile in the background

Public Health

Dr T H - really bad place projections not good really need to hunker down- dodged q of schools. Change in contract tracing as unable to keep up and does not tell us anything new other than we are ****ed if we continue on this trajectory.

Paul Reid - Covid 19 rampant in community.

Colm Henry - new strain potential to do more harm. There are suggestions of more positive cases of this variant in children there is no suggestion it is more virulent.

Every battle has to have some cause worth fighting for. And surely education and healthcare should be the two things worth fighting for.

It would be more in the govs line to say we want to keep schools open but in light of the current situation we are unclear about how this will look. We are working very hard at dep level to draw up a number of contingency plans that will allow our children avail of education depending on the trajectory of the virus....

Then tell every minister to spout the same line whenever they are asked about schools.

Clear concise and to the point.

kippy

lulublue22 wrote: »

Hazy ?

Norma -
there will be no deviation to the standardised school year. ( due to deteriorating PH situation xmas hols extended)
Full Intention to return on 11th Jan

Minister of Justice - schools will reopen on the 11th Jan

Random minister on Newstalk - answered Q re school closures once cases hit 2500 a day.

MM - schools are safe are extending xmas hols to 11th Jan to give 10 clear nights of increased restrictions


Meanwhile in the background

Public Health

Dr T H - really bad place projections not good really need to hunker down- dodged q of schools. Change in contract tracing as unable to keep up and does not tell us anything new other than we are ****ed if we continue on this trajectory.

Paul Reid - Covid 19 rampant in community.

Colm Henry - new strain potential to do more harm. There are suggestions of more positive cases of this variant in children there is no suggestion it is more virulent.

Every battle has to have some cause worth fighting for. And surely education and healthcare should be the two things worth fighting for.

It would be more in the govs line to say we want to keep schools open but in light of the current situation we are unclear about how this will look. We are working very hard at dep level to draw up a number of contingency plans that will allow our children avail of education depending on the trajectory of the virus....

Then tell every minister to spout the same line whenever they are asked about schools.

Clear concise and to the point.

All well and good.
Then some people ask: When and for how long? Answer - we don't know - it depends on how successful the restrictions are in driving numbers down.
Watch the headlines.
Again - they cannot win.

lulublue22

kippy wrote: »

All well and good.
Then some people ask: When and for how long? Answer - we don't know - it depends on how successful the restrictions are in driving numbers down.
Watch the headlines.
Again - they cannot win.

They don’t have to win - they need to look like they are in charge and all ministers are on the same page , and they have the cop on to deviate in relation to schools if necessary. At this stage indicating a full return to school on the 11 Jan is not a good look. For all there grumbling and moaning people generally understand reason. It’s reasonable at this stage to indicate the situation is too fluid but contingency plans are being drawn up in case the situation deteriorates rather than a full intention to open schools on Jan 11th with our highest level of community transmission since the pandemic began.

It’s a fine line to be sure but people don’t appreciate becoming the sacrificial lamb and parents won’t be long changing their tune if this strain is as transmissible among children as it appears to be.

Leftwaffe

Minor thing but I’m supposed to have a CBA starting on Monday 11th. Things like that should have been completely thrown out at the beginning of the year. Don’t know what will happen now if we’re not back. Even if we are back, attendance will be woeful. Some job chasing up CBAs from students then.

lulublue22

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

Minor thing but I’m supposed to have a CBA starting on Monday 11th. Things like that should have been completely thrown out at the beginning of the year. Don’t know what will happen now if we’re not back. Even if we are back, attendance will be woeful. Some job chasing up CBAs from students then.

I think the next few weeks will be messy whether we are back or not. The new contact tracing advice will impact attendance across the board. Think we need to keep head down and get on with it as best as we can really.

Leftwaffe

lulublue22 wrote: »

I think the next few weeks will be messy whether we are back or not. The new contact tracing advice will impact attendance across the board. Think we need to keep head down and get on with it as best as we can really.

Yeah I know, we can only do our job really. We’ve done very well up to now in my opinion

Bobtheman

scrubs33 wrote: »

I’ve been talking to some well connected party faithful locally and she is being talked about in terms of future leadership roles both within the party and at government level. Her standing is very high within FF.

It's way too early for her to be considered leadership material. I suspect you are kerry FF.
She got a ministry after only three months in the Dail. That's challenging for anybody. Whether she is talented or not is hard to tell. A lot of the public is bought over by a good media presence. Look at Leo- who was once a wunderkid but what radical things did he do??

Bobtheman

I think most people would prefer politicians to say "it's a very fluid situation. We would hope to open schools Jan 11th but we have to take note of the deteriorating situation"
Rather than pretending they know everything.
How do you know a politician is lying - their mouths are moving.
I'm usually quite sympathetic to the politicial class but not after these pathetic utterances.

scrubs33

Bobtheman wrote: »

It's way too early for her to be considered leadership material. I suspect you are kerry FF.
She got a ministry after only three months in the Dail. That's challenging for anybody. Whether she is talented or not is hard to tell. A lot of the public is bought over by a good media presence. Look at Leo- who was once a wunderkid but what radical things did he do??

I’ve been called a lot of things but that takes the biscuit:) Neither as it happens but your point about media presence is a good one: in this case not having a media presence is doing wonders for the Minister amongst rank and file party members. Anyway I’m wandering slightly off topic so back to waiting to see what happens before the 11th.

amacca

scrubs33 wrote: »

I’ve been called a lot of things but that takes the biscuit:) Neither as it happens but your point about media presence is a good one: in this case not having a media presence is doing wonders for the Minister amongst rank and file party members. Anyway I’m wandering slightly off topic so back to waiting to see what happens before the 11th.

Could be the dawn of a new strategy......say nothing/as little as possible, appear nowhere/as few places as possible and they can't pin anything on you ..... Taoiseach!

keoclassic

Random sample wrote: »

She didn’t say schools would reopen, she said it was their firm intention to open them.... I read that as it won’t happen.

SEC admin staff were still dealing with 2020 exams in December, I will put the delay on recruitment down to that.

I don’t see us going back on the 11th, but I’d like to know soon so I can start readjusting my January plans for online.

6-8th seems to be extra holidays, but private schools are teaching online to their timetables, so the divide continues to widen there.

Which private schools? Full private schools with no dept paid teachers are not governed by the actions of the dept of Ed, the likes of nord anglia is it?

Treppen

keoclassic wrote: »

Which private schools? Full private schools with no dept paid teachers are not governed by the actions of the dept of Ed, the likes of nord anglia is it?

Think he means "Voluntary Fee Charging".

Smacruairi

I haven't heard of any private school opening. Is the institute open for example