Top Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated?

Sgt. Bilko 09

An unknown group has killed Fahmi Hinawi an isreal intelligence officer in retaliation for the killing of the scientist earlier in the week.

Just happened within the last hour...

Gatling

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

The US had advanced intelligence, they would have pulled out the US soldiers at the base. It’s large spread out base and lot of area to target. Iran went after individual targets. I watched their military briefing and was outlined why they hit the base.



Iran had no agreement here. Iran was not targeting the soldiers bunkers that night, if a missile went astray landed on it, there likely be some deaths, but that's what if!

I would emphasize Iran strikes were calculated, in a way to avoid big US soldier deaths

So basically you watched one of their comical propaganda videos and fell hook line and sinker for everything they said ,
You previously stated that there was an agreement to hit the base which was largely evacuated ,no your claims they didn't ,
Why was the base evacuated then ,yes 100 odd soldiers sufferer concussive injuries , again nothing uncommon in a war zone ,100 + soldiers get a purple heart and have all sicnce returned to active duty .

"I would emphasize Iran strikes were calculated" 20 odd missiles and the majority missed on purpose ,so the calculations were hitting few tents ,one corner of a building ,and a few Humvees and damaged a black hawk,


That's some fairytale

jmreire

There has always been backdoor communication channels for emergency situations, generally through intermediates. It's what has helped avoid nuclear war and other wars on occasion, and happened again when the US took out the Iranian General Qasem Soleimania. With him, it was clear cut who was killed, and who was responsible. All that remained was to find a mutually acceptable follow on course of action. And thats exactly what happened. Hassan Rouhani can placate his hardliners, Trump was able to report structural damage, with only minor injuries, and no deaths. Full scale war was avoided. And its what's happening now in this case as well, what ever the outcome will be. Israeli jets roam at will over Syrian Skies, bombing Iranian supported positions and weapon storage locations. All with the Russians fully aware of and allowing it to happen. Because the Israelis keep them unofficially informed via the selfsame channels of whats known as "backdoor Diplomacy".

basill

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

That makes little sense when you think back. Trump speeches before the Iranian strike remember. The US had advanced intelligence, they would have pulled out the US soldiers at the base. It’s large spread out base and lot of area to target. Iran went after individual targets. I watched their military briefing and was outlined why they hit the base.

Trump also denied anything all happened to US soldiers remember. It took weeks and weeks for the Pentagon, to say 134 US soldiers suffered brain trauma and blast shock. The base obviously got an early warning the missiles were incoming, and they entered the hardened bunkers on site at the base. There was not enough time for them to clear the base.

Iran had no agreement here. Iran was not targeting the soldiers bunkers that night, if a missile went astray landed on it, there likely be some deaths, but that's what if!

I would emphasize Iran strikes were calculated, in a way to avoid big US soldier deaths I agree there. Iran of course does not want a war with the US, that's madness, and the strikes were not meant for that..

Iran still had no way of knowing Trump response would be to this attack. Iran in my view here gambled, but was fully prepared for round 2 and 3 and what came next that night. When Trump revenge did not materialize, they paused and stopped and that was that. Plus the Ukraine aircraft shootdown probably stopped a second wave of attacks, who can say?

You are quoting Trump who needs pictures as part of his daily security briefings because verbage is a bit to much for him to grasp........

Ardillaun

The Israelis and Russians have a lot of connections, starting with some of the oligarchs and also the large Russian-speaking community in Israel. If one thinks of Russia, Turkey, Iran and Israel (let alone the Caucasus and the Arab states), only the relationship between Israel and Iran is fairly straightforward.

nacho libre

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

That makes little sense when you think back. Trump speeches before the Iranian strike remember. The US had advanced intelligence, they would have pulled out the US soldiers at the base. It’s large spread out base and lot of area to target. Iran went after individual targets. I watched their military briefing and was outlined why they hit the base.
?

It makes perfect sense, unless you believe the Iranian propaganda. The Americans knew the attack was coming and allowed it to happen. The Americans got what they wanted in killing Iran's top General, and the Iranians could claim for a domestic audience that they bloodied the nose of the great satan in return. Both sides could then move on.

Gatling

Were back to the satellite controlled unmanned gun that was used in the assination , apparently the Iranians are impressed that Israel took out Fakhrizadeh ,his bodyguards and avoided injuring Fakhrizadeh wife using an unmanned system

rapul

Yeah read that alrite

jmreire

Gatling wrote: »

Were back to the satellite controlled unmanned gun that was used in the assination , apparently the Iranians are impressed that Israel took out Fakhrizadeh ,his bodyguards and avoided injuring Fakhrizadeh wife using an unmanned system

Yes, back again. One version is that the he left the AV to check on his wife, which would indicate she was travelling in another vehicle, while another version says that only a computerised strike could hit him, but not his wife, which would mean that they were both travelling in the same AV. There are 4 strikes on the windscreen, only one which may have penetrated into the vehicle (on the extreme right ) as the car is Left Hand drive, most likely to have been hit with this shot would have been the driver, but even then a lot of the bullets energy would have been absorbed by the bullet proof glass. What ever he was shot with and whoever did the shooting remains to be seen but one thing is sure....had he stayed in the vehicle, he most likely would be still alive today.

nacho libre

Whatever the truth is as regards the excact methods used in Fakhrizadeh's assassination, his killing indicates that Mossad has well and truly infiltrated the Iranian security structure. The question is just high up does it go.

jmreire

nacho libre wrote: »

Whatever the truth is as regards the excact methods used in Fakhrizadeh's assassination, his killing indicates that Mossad has well and truly infiltrated the Iranian security structure. The question is just high up does it go.

From Iranwire:-
Quote:-
All the security forces are now blaming one another – and spreading the ridiculous hypothesis that the assassination took place with an automatic weapon. The real problem is that corruption has penetrated deep into the system, and it is very easy for Israelis to buy a few people for a million dollars and assassinate our officials.
“In this situation, many sincere and knowledgeable officers of the Ministry of Intelligence are discouraged, and are not even willing to collaborate with the system as advisers."
IranWire understands that a large number of people who had a connection with Fakhrizadeh are currently being interrogated. They include his colleagues at the Ministry of Defense and Imam Hossein University, their family members, family members of the military officers, and many residents of Damavand. Unquote,

For sure, I would not like to have been one of the security personnel on the protection detail on that day, or a relative or friend either,

Ardillaun

The longer the mullahs persist in executing journalists, the more likely they will be dragged by their beards to the cranes themselves one day:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/12/iran-executes-dissident-journalist-for-inspiring-2017-protests

jmreire

Ardillaun wrote: »

The longer the mullahs persist in executing journalists, the more likely they will be dragged by their beards to the cranes themselves one day:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/12/iran-executes-dissident-journalist-for-inspiring-2017-protests

There has been 3 major uprisings in Iran since the Ayatollahs came to power. They all failed, and they failed because the rulers control the military, and they ruthlessly suppressed the people. While they can keep the military on their side, they are safe.
Quote" The 2021 budget bill, the budget of the regime’s military and repressive institutions has increased by 11% and reached 121 trillion tomans. While the coronavirus outbreak ravages people’s lives, the oppressive forces’ budget is higher than the health budget. The budget for public services is only about 20% of the military and repressive forces’ budget. Unquote.
But the budget figures come from the fantasy land of the Ayatollahs imagination, based on future increased oil sales, which even if all the sanctions were lifted immediately, would not happen as oil prices are at record lows, and Iran releasing even more oil into the market would only depress prices further. Basically the Country is heading for bankruptcy. I think that we will have to wait until the military starts to feel the financial pinch, and there will be a combination of a military coup and an uprising due to ever rising prices. Only then will you see change. The execution of the Journalist is just a naked threat to everyone, we can and will kill you.

Gatling

jmreire wrote: »

There has been 3 major uprisings in Iran since the Ayatollahs came to power. They all failed, and they failed because the rulers control the military, and they ruthlessly suppressed the people. While they can keep the military on their side, they are safe.
Quote" The 2021 budget bill, the budget of the regime’s military and repressive institutions has increased by 11% and reached 121 trillion tomans. While the coronavirus outbreak ravages people’s lives, the oppressive forces’ budget is higher than the health budget. The budget for public services is only about 20% of the military and repressive forces’ budget. Unquote.
But the budget figures come from the fantasy land of the Ayatollahs imagination, based on future increased oil sales, which even if all the sanctions were lifted immediately, would not happen as oil prices are at record lows, and Iran releasing even more oil into the market would only depress prices further. Basically the Country is heading for bankruptcy. I think that we will have to wait until the military starts to feel the financial pinch, and there will be a combination of a military coup and an uprising due to ever rising prices. Only then will you see change. The execution of the Journalist is just a naked threat to everyone, we can and will kill you.

They also have separate military forces ,the regular army who are under resourced and equipped Vs the revolutionary guard who have the the best of the equipment and resources ,they could do with a proper civil war rather than uprising which get put down fairly rapidly because everyone is afraid to back their own people

nacho libre

Ardillaun wrote: »

The longer the mullahs persist in executing journalists, the more likely they will be dragged by their beards to the cranes themselves one day:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/12/iran-executes-dissident-journalist-for-inspiring-2017-protests

The guy was probably a bit more than a Journalist Ardillaun, but that does not excuse him being executed. The Mullah's won't be dragged anywhere, unless senior figures in the military stage a coup, which is unlikely seeing as they are well looked after.

Ardillaun

nacho libre wrote: »

The guy was probably a bit more than a Journalist Ardillaun, but that does not excuse him being executed. The Mullah's won't be dragged anywhere, unless senior figures in the military stage a coup, which is unlikely seeing as they are well looked after.

Momentarily wishful thinking on my part. Ideally, Iran will become a country where religious ravings are politely ignored. Half of Iranians are under 31. Whatever about dictatorship, let’s hope absolute theocratic rule does not persist for another 40 years. The clerics can manage a peaceful transition to more secular and effective government if they go the Sistani route and gradually retreat from politics. Otherwise, a coup must be a distinct possibility in the decades ahead, led by younger army officers.

I see the charge against this journalist, corruption on earth, is a sort of ‘enemy of the people’ catchall that simply means your days are done. Sounds like it’s hard to mount an effective defence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mofsed-e-filarz

Cheerful Spring2

nacho libre wrote: »

It makes perfect sense, unless you believe the Iranian propaganda. The Americans knew the attack was coming and allowed it to happen. The Americans got what they wanted in killing Iran's top General, and the Iranians could claim for a domestic audience that they bloodied the nose of the great satan in return. Both sides could then move on.

Does not make any sense to my understanding after the Pentagon estimates 134 servicemen here suffered brain Trauma from the missile attacks inside the base. In that case the US deliberately left troops inside the base (they had insider knowledge) Iran be striking this base with medium range missiles? Why would Iran open private talks in couple of days after they executed the general? They had friendly relations with Obama team not the Trump side. It was just luck here no soldiers were wandering around here in line of fire to be killed. If you want to believe this was planned, between the two powers, you have opinion and that's ok!

jmreire

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

Does not make any sense to my understanding after the Pentagon estimates 134 servicemen here suffered brain Trauma from the missile attacks inside the base. In that case the US deliberately left troops inside the base (they had insider knowledge) Iran be striking this base with medium range missiles? Why would Iran open private talks in couple of days after they executed the general? They had friendly relations with Obama team not the Trump side. It was just luck here no soldiers were wandering around here in line of fire to be killed. If you want to believe this was planned, between the two powers, you have opinion and that's ok!

Yes it was planned, by the Americans obviously. And all possible outcomes regarding the repercussions were factored in to that planning, up to and including war. So they went ahead and carried it out. From the time the General was killed, every base within a 100 miles went from code green or yellow to red alert. Thats why there was no one wandering about. When Iran launched the missile's every one went into the shelters. They all suffered some kind of concussion, and after treatment , all went back on active service. Bear in mind, soldiers are trained for these kind of situations. What would you expect them to do? Leave the base deserted and undefended? After this happened, the back door politics kicked in. The Americans achieved their goal, and the regime satisfied their audience with the retaliation, and so honor was saved. So, in a sense both sides "won", if that's the correct term. How ever, it these missiles had caused extensive American death's, then there would have been a far different ending, and both sides knew this perfectly well, and neither side wanted it to happen.

Cheerful Spring2

jmreire wrote: »

Yes it was planned, by the Americans obviously. And all possible outcomes regarding the repercussions were factored in to that planning, up to and including war. So they went ahead and carried it out. From the time the General was killed, every base within a 100 miles went from code green or yellow to red alert. Thats why there was no one wandering about. When Iran launched the missile's every one went into the shelters. They all suffered some kind of concussion, and after treatment , all went back on active service. Bear in mind, soldiers are trained for these kind of situations. What would you expect them to do? Leave the base deserted and undefended? After this happened, the back door politics kicked in. The Americans achieved their goal, and the regime satisfied their audience with the retaliation, and so honor was saved. So, in a sense both sides "won", if that's the correct term. How ever, it these missiles had caused extensive American death's, then there would have been a far different ending, and both sides knew this perfectly well, and neither side wanted it to happen.

I agree with you "Regime satisfied their audience with the retaliation!

The fact an Iranian anti-aircraft battery shot down a civilian airliner just hour or so after the attack is another sign least for me the event not staged here. The Iranian military was on high alert for a US response. If a plan was worked out head of time the alert level be very low. The units on the ground were jumpy and expected a US firm response. IRGC also said in hour after the attack they expand the target range if Trump responded back. That does not sound like they worked out a deal. Iran was just happy with the strike and ended it there.

What i disagree with is- Iran has no idea what Trump reaction would be to the strike. He backed off a likely surprise to the regime, as much as everyone else!

jmreire

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

I agree with you "Regime satisfied their audience with the retaliation!

The fact an Iranian anti-aircraft battery shot down a civilian airliner just hour or so after the attack is another sign least for me the event not staged here. The Iranian military was on high alert for a US response. If a plan was worked out head of time the alert level be very low. The units on the ground were jumpy and expected a US firm response. IRGC also said in hour after the attack they expand the target range if Trump responded back. That does not sound like they worked out a deal. Iran was just happy with the strike and ended it there.

What i disagree with is- Iran has no idea what Trump reaction would be to the strike. He backed off a likely surprise to the regime, as much as everyone else!

Thats true. For the Iranians they were really caught between a rock and a hard place, in a situation that they had really no control over. They had to react, and in a manner that would satisfy the home audience that they had as a previous poster said " Given the great Satan a bloody nose which would make him think twice before attempting anything like that ever again". I'm pretty sure that had they wanted to obliterate the base, and everyone in it, they had the means to do it. But that would have guaranteed a very bad reaction from Trump. So it was only a limited strike. It was all along the lines of "Tit for Tat". Had there been scenes of American planes arriving back in the US and unloading flag draped coffins...then Trump would have been put in the position of deciding the size of his "Tat". I'd hazard a guess that it would be more than a few missiles landing on a military base.....or if they did, all that would remain of that base would be massive craters. But then, we would be in another major war. What you say about downing the aircraft, I'd agree with 100%.

Gatling

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

The fact an Iranian anti-aircraft battery shot down a civilian airliner just hour or so after the attack is another sign least for me the event not staged here. The Iranian military was on high alert for a US response.

But yet you have made multiple claims across several threads saying it was all arranged .

As for the shoot down I don't think it was anything to do with the missile strike ,it was a simple case of someone who no real experience at the hands of a anti aircraft battery ,it's the same reason they spent days denying it happened and they had evidence of a technical failure

Ardillaun

From a European point of view, Iran isn’t much of a direct threat in itself whatever it does. The foreign ‘terrorists’ Iran supports have limited aims which don’t affect us. Similarly, if the Turks funded Azeri ‘terrorists’ in Iran, which is now a distinct possibility, it wouldn’t change our lives.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/11/iran-protests-to-turkey-over-meddling-poem-recited-by-erdogan

I’m more concerned about a desperate Iran falling into the Chinese sphere of influence as Pakistan already has. Then only Turkey would remain between us and a continuous line of Chinese-dominated states. Obviously, the mullahs don’t want that either, so the key for the US is to pressure Iran but not to the point of collapse.

nacho libre

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

Does not make any sense to my understanding after the Pentagon estimates 134 servicemen here suffered brain Trauma from the missile attacks inside the base. In that case the US deliberately left troops inside the base (they had insider knowledge) Iran be striking this base with medium range missiles? Why would Iran open private talks in couple of days after they executed the general? They had friendly relations with Obama team not the Trump side. It was just luck here no soldiers were wandering around here in line of fire to be killed. If you want to believe this was planned, between the two powers, you have opinion and that's ok!

I believe if America really wanted to stop the Iranian attack they could have. I believe both side engaged in back door diplomacy as they both did not want things escalating to full scale war. Had Iran killed US service men, Trump would have found it very difficult not to declare war on Iran. Iran had to be seen to expect retalitation to the strikes on the base. There is no way they'd want it to be known they had come to prior arrangement with their enemy. As you say we'll have to agree to disagree on this.

It's interesting the Turkish leader is now seen as a bulwark to Chinese influence. It was not so long that a Turkish dissident living in America was alleged to be responsible for the coup against Erdogan.

Ardillaun

Iran may face trouble on yet another front:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/13/why-did-erdogans-poem-infuriate-iranians

A few words of a poem recited by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Azerbaijan has created a political firestorm with Iran and united Iranians behind a message of national unity and territorial integrity.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/14/turkey-detains-11-over-abduction-of-iranian-dissident

Turkey has arrested 11 people involved in the abduction and smuggling to Iran of an Iranian dissident wanted in connection with a deadly 2018 attack in southwestern Iran.

Habib Chaab, an Iranian ethnic Arab separatist leader, was drugged and kidnapped by a network working “on behalf of Iran’s intelligence service” after being lured into flying to Turkey by an Iranian intelligence operative, a senior Turkish official said.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/14/turkey-selects-new-ambassador-to-israel-report

Ardillaun

nacho libre wrote: »

It's interesting the Turkish leader is now seen as a bulwark to Chinese influence. It was not so long that a Turkish dissident living in America was alleged to be responsible for the coup against Erdogan.

Erdoğan ıs loyal to his vision of a new Ottoman Empire and will play China, the US, Europe, Russia, Iran, Israel and the Arab states off against each other as best he can to further such aims. Unlike Iran, Turkey is on Europe’s doorstep and poses multiple threats to our stability, e.g. migrants, territorial claims in the Mediterranean, and a possible war with Greece.

nacho libre

Ardillaun wrote: »

, Turkey is on Europe’s doorstep and poses multiple threats to our stability, e.g. migrants, territorial claims in the Mediterranean, and a possible war with Greece.

There will be no war with Greece.
While it's true that having survived the 2016 coup, he feels emboldened to fulfill some of his grand ambitions, he knows he will in trouble if he pushes his luck too far. The US and EU have the means to bring him to heel.

Sgt. Bilko 09

nacho libre wrote: »

There will be no war with Greece.
While it's true that having survived the 2016 coup, he feels emboldened to fulfill some of his grand ambitions, he knows he will in trouble if he pushes his luck too far. The US and EU have the means to bring him to heel.

Erdogan has a “friend” in Putin. The EU and US would not do anything to Turkey either economically or from a military aspect. The only recent problem Turkey has brought the EU and US is the F35 debacle all because they bought a Russian S400s. Also, RAF Akrotiri is in close proximity to Turkey the British and Greeks may have seen the S400 purchase as an act against them trying defend there claimed territories on the island which is against Turkey. With Turkey being a NATO member this has not been a deterrent for them as they doing incursions on a regular basis into Greek/Cypriot waters. Turkey has the fourth largest military in the world and the second largest in NATO and is huge asset for Middle East issues. Erdogan has even annoyed the french too which is apparently an allie, over a Libyan arms embargo and also with the decision to move a special forces platoon into northern Iraq. The only common goal for Turkey and the EU/US at the moment is a common enemy in Iran which sparked up again during last week after Erdogans poem at a conference.

Erdogan has a trump card in Russia as they have both backed Azerbaijani forces against Armenia and they assisted Pro Assad forces in Syria.

nacho libre

Sgt. Bilko 09 wrote: »

Erdogan has a “friend” in Putin. .

Erdogan has a trump card in Russia as they have both backed Azerbaijani forces against Armenia and they assisted Pro Assad forces in Syria.

He does have a friend in Russia for the time being, but as other have found friendships and historical ties can count for nothing if the cost is too high.
I was not aware Erdogan was backing pro- assad forces in Syria? Russia and Turkey support opposing sides in Syria.

Sgt. Bilko 09

nacho libre wrote: »

He does have a friend in Russia for the time being, but as other have found friendships and historical ties can count for nothing if the cost is too high.
I was not aware Erdogan was backing pro- assad forces in Syria? Russia and Turkey support opposing sides in Syria.

Russian and Syria where being targeted by Kurdish forces(pro US). Turkey doesn’t like Kurdish, historically.. When the Kurds fired at a Turkish post on the Turkish side of the border in 2016, I think that was the go-ahead before they pushed into Syria. Turkish eliminated the base at which the fire came from but proxy forces of Turkey have been in that area which it happened. I’m assuming they where pro Assad (at least for a limited time) as they where targeting and killing anti Assad fighters.

Ardillaun

nacho libre wrote: »

There will be no war with Greece.
While it's true that having survived the 2016 coup, he feels emboldened to fulfill some of his grand ambitions, he knows he will in trouble if he pushes his luck too far. The US and EU have the means to bring him to heel.

The Greek government would be relieved to hear that. When asked in Germany why Greece spent so much of its GDP on defence, the Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis replied (at 55.30), “because unfortunately our neighbour is Turkey and not Denmark”.

https://primeminister.gr/en/2020/03/09/23537

That Greek lad speaks better English than I do. He’s struggling a little bit more here in this French language interview but he’s a hardy man to have a go.

https://youtu.be/I4L0aSQ5amQ

Speaks German too.