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Top Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated?

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    #332
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,642 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Ardillaun wrote: »
    The Greek government would be relieved to hear that. When asked in Germany why Greece spent so much of its GDP on defence, the Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis replied (at 55.30), “because unfortunately our neighbour is Turkey and not Denmark”.

    https://primeminister.gr/en/2020/03/09/23537

    That Greek lad speaks better English than I do. He’s struggling a little bit more here in this French language interview but he’s a hardy man to have a go.

    https://youtu.be/I4L0aSQ5amQ

    Speaks German too.

    Well, i have no doubt the Greek Prime Minister would prefer to have Denmark as a neighbour, so it stands to reason he would be prepared for all scenarios.
    However, as belligerent as the Turkish Leader is he seems rational in the final analysis.I recall when tension was escalating between Turkey and Russia over the killing of Russian servicemen by Turkey, it was defused behind the scenes.
    With this in mind I don't think Erdogan is stupid enough to go to war with Greece. The consequences for Turkey would be serious. The Turkish economy would be devastated.


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    #333
    Ardillaun
    Registered Users Posts: 2,535 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    nacho libre wrote: »
    With this in mind I don't think Erdogan is stupid enough to go to war with Greece. The consequences for Turkey would be serious. The Turkish economy would be devastated.

    There’s a non-zero chance of some sort of armed conflict between Greece and Turkey. It’s an inherently volatile situation. They have a border, a history of wars, bitter mutual animosity, including a religious divide, and serious territorial disputes. Three potential flashpoints of many are gas rights, Cyprus and the migrant crisis. We already know Erdoğan isn’t the full shilling and, on the Greek side, we can personally understand the difficulty of staying calm when disputing an issue with former imperial masters. As in India-Pakistan, a war may be triggered against the wishes of the leaders which they then have to go along with.


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    #334
    jmreire
    Registered Users Posts: 8,297 ✭✭✭jmreire


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Well, i have no doubt the Greek Prime Minister would prefer to have Denmark as a neighbour, so it stands to reason he would be prepared for all scenarios.
    However, as belligerent as the Turkish Leader is he seems rational in the final analysis.I recall when tension was escalating between Turkey and Russia over the killing of Russian servicemen by Turkey, it was defused behind the scenes.
    With this in mind I don't think Erdogan is stupid enough to go to war with Greece. The consequences for Turkey would be serious. The Turkish economy would be devastated.

    That tension between Russian and Turkey was over more than Russian soldiers getting killed.. Lots of Russian and Assad soldier's were being killed all the time. But because of Russian support for Assad, by attacking Assads enemies inc. isis, they retaliated by planting a bomb on a Russian plane, full of holiday makers leaving Sharm el Sheik airport in Egypt. So the Russians started attacking the oil tanker convoys leaving Syrian oilfields, which were under the control of isis, disrupting the oil supply. Erdogan was one of the biggest purchasers of this oil ( Assad was another ) One of Erdogans sons was in charge of this, as part of the family business. They reacted by downing a Russian fighter jet on the grounds that it had invaded Turkish airspace. Which it did, if only very briefly. It was shot down on the flimsiest of excuses. That was when Turkey and Russia teetered on the brink of outright war, but NATO ( of which Turkey was a member) washed their hands of any involvement in support of Erdogan, and backroom diplomacy did the rest in preventing it from going further. But has it ever really being forgiven??? Only time will tell. But for sure, the last thing Turkey needs right now, is to start or get involved in another war.


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    #335
    Ardillaun
    Registered Users Posts: 2,535 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    nacho libre wrote: »
    There will be no war with Greece.
    While it's true that having survived the 2016 coup, he feels emboldened to fulfill some of his grand ambitions, he knows he will in trouble if he pushes his luck too far. The US and EU have the means to bring him to heel.

    I don’t see Turkish forces in Athens any time soon but a small conflict at the margins is quite possible. Erdoğan just loves his drones at the moment. With Trump soon to be out of the WH (one assumes) and Flynn gone, Greece can breathe a little more easily for now; one longer term question is how committed the US is to NATO.

    On other fronts, anything could happen between Turkey, Iran and Russia.


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    #336
    jmreire
    Registered Users Posts: 8,297 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Ardillaun wrote: »
    I don’t see Turkish forces in Athens any time soon but a small conflict at the margins is quite possible. Erdoğan just loves his drones at the moment. With Trump out of the WH and Flynn gone, Greece can breathe a little more easily for now; one longer term question is how committed the US is to NATO.

    On other fronts, anything could happen between Turkey, Iran and Russia.

    Especially when you add Israel to the mix....


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    #337
    Ardillaun
    Registered Users Posts: 2,535 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    jmreire wrote: »
    Especially when you add Israel to the mix....

    Now, that’s four dimensional chess. Apart from Iran and Israel, every bilateral relationship there is in the frenemy category and could go either way. Iran and Russia are supposed to be on good terms at the moment but Putin did little to help Armenia in its recent war. When criticizing the proposed Iranian deal with China, Ahmadinejad likened it to the humiliating Treaty of Turkmenchay:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Turkmenchay


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    #338
    jmreire
    Registered Users Posts: 8,297 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Ardillaun wrote: »
    Now, that’s four dimensional chess. Apart from Iran and Israel, every bilateral relationship there is in the frenemy category and could go either way. Iran and Russia are supposed to be on good terms at the moment but Putin did little to help Armenia in its recent war. When criticizing the proposed Iranian deal with China, Ahmadinejad likened it to the humiliating Treaty of Turkmenchay:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Turkmenchay

    And he could well be right! Given China's recent history of "helping " other Countrys. Will be interesting to see how that plays out down the road....the Ayatollah is really scraping the bottom of the financial barrel.


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    #339
    Cheerful Spring2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,705 ✭✭✭Cheerful Spring2


    Ardillaun wrote: »
    Iran and Russia are supposed to be on good terms at the moment but Putin did little to help Armenia in its recent war.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Turkmenchay

    Putin wanted to avoid a big war, and its not widely reported Russian peacekeepers are now patrolling the line of control. Putin forced both nations to stop fighting. In many ways Russia has intervened in the region, it just they didn't pick a side to fight with. Armenia lost the most, but Russia saw the fighting could have spread into Iran and into Russia and didn't want that. They did not want the Turkish backed headchoppers advancing towards Armenia proper, the disputed territory, it's fair game.


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    #340
    Ardillaun
    Registered Users Posts: 2,535 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    More bad news for Iran:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/25/erdogan-says-turkey-wants-better-ties-with-israel-talks-continue


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    #341
    Gatling
    Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Ardillaun wrote: »
    More bad news for Iran:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/25/erdogan-says-turkey-wants-better-ties-with-israel-talks-continue

    "talks at intelligence level continue between the two sides, but has also criticised Israeli policy towards Palestinians as “unacceptable”.

    One word "Kurds"

    Wonder what Israel have in mind highly doubt they trust erdokan any more than they trust iran
    360_F_102352090_ie3kLjDIvgrT1sxVDknWCUh8PxgMYzM7.jpg




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    #342
    Ardillaun
    Registered Users Posts: 2,535 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »
    Putin wanted to avoid a big war, and its not widely reported Russian peacekeepers are now patrolling the line of control.

    Turkey and Russia are dividing up the region between them. Erdoğan would take Armenia proper and Georgia too if he thought he could get away with it.


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    #343
    Ardillaun
    Registered Users Posts: 2,535 ✭✭✭Ardillaun


    Gatling wrote: »
    "talks at intelligence level continue between the two sides, but has also criticised Israeli policy towards Palestinians as “unacceptable”.

    One word "Kurds"

    Wonder what Israel have in mind highly doubt they trust erdokan any more than they trust iran

    This region makes for strange bedfellows. Israel and Turkey just worked together with Azerbaijan to defeat the Christians of Armenia, a fact the US is studiously trying to avoid acknowledging.


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