Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

JP Liz V1

Stheno wrote: »

You are allowed go anywhere in Ireland to visit a grave at the moment so I would say yes

Even outside your own county?

ACitizenErased

Electric is closed, no pints in those photos from Cork.

bb1234567

The deaths in some parts of small town America are staggering the last few days, South Dakota saw 42 deaths per million today..equivalent of over 200 deaths in a day here. Unfortunately I think this winter for America will prove just how nasty this virus can be if left uncontrolled and confirm that it was only restrictions that saved us from pretty devastating death toll here. Based on current trends in some states it really would not be surprising to see America's death toll hit north of 500,000 by late Winter

Wolf359f

caveat emptor wrote: »

Jaysus, that looks freezing. Someone should tell them they will catch a cold out in that.

Careful now, some on here believe if they were tested for covid it would pick up the common cold even though they are different RNA.

Wolf359f

bb1234567 wrote: »

The deaths in some parts of small town America are staggering the last few days, South Dakota saw 42 deaths per million today..equivalent of over 200 deaths in a day here. Unfortunately I think this winter for America will prove just how nasty this virus can be if left uncontrolled and confirm that it was only restrictions that saved us from pretty devastating death toll here. Based on current trends in some states it really would not be surprising to see America's death toll hit north of 500,000 by late Winter

Gonna be scary with thanksgiving next week. We sometimes forget thanksgiving is bigger than Christmas in America.
I know Canada said they experienced a surge due to thanksgiving there (10 days ago) but it's hard to see as they have been having increased cases.

Criticize NPHET/Government all you like, but thankfully our second wave has only been slightly larger than our first. So many countries worldwide are 5x the numbers.

podgeandrodge

Where I am in Dublin, takeaway doing a bomb, and some, only some, bringing their pints to nearby side streets where the few lads are braving the weather (though mild enough tonight) sitting on walls having their fresh Guinness.

Admirable in one way, and finding it hard to think it's that risky in the open air. But deffo, since Level 5, a new 'habit' forming of groups of outside drinkers. And it's not particularly good for local areas so I hope we can get into the pub asap.

Wolf359f

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Where I am in Dublin, takeaway doing a bomb, and some, only some, bringing their pints to nearby side streets where the few lads are braving the weather (though mild enough tonight) sitting on walls having their fresh Guinness.

Admirable in one way, and finding it hard to think it's that risky in the open air. But deffo, since Level 5, a new 'habit' forming of groups of outside drinkers. And it's not particularly good for local areas so I hope we can get into the pub asap.

A few outdoors enjoying a pint seems harmless and not unsafe. The issue is when the other group join them and then the next and next and then there's the hugging and kissing etc... It's the herd mentality taking over.

The way I always see it is.... stuck in traffic and the bus lane empty, nobody is driving in it, until 1 person decides to undertake and drive up it. Next minute there's a steady stream driving in it, all because 1 person done it, the rest feel or think it's acceptable.

pc7

I’ve kidneys like a small kitten when drinking, while it’s most likely safe outside having a few beers, with no toilets they are peeing and worse outside. One of the pubs last week that was closed had to clean up from people using their outside area as a toilet. That’s just acting like animals.

Ficheall

political analyst wrote: »

Governments will never forget the horror that unfolded in Lombardy and will thus respond appropriately to any future novel virus.

The point is what is known now, not what was known then.

"There's a virus killing loads of people in China and Italy, and it's spreading - we need to do something to minimize the risk here."
"Nah. We'll be better prepared next time though."

zerosugarbuzz

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Where I am in Dublin, takeaway doing a bomb, and some, only some, bringing their pints to nearby side streets where the few lads are braving the weather (though mild enough tonight) sitting on walls having their fresh Guinness.

Admirable in one way, and finding it hard to think it's that risky in the open air. But deffo, since Level 5, a new 'habit' forming of groups of outside drinkers. And it's not particularly good for local areas so I hope we can get into the pub asap.

Smokers have been doing this for years.

wadacrack

Confirmed cases of Covid-19 among children of school-going age increased exponentially across the month of October and into November.

According to official statistics produced on a daily basis by the Health Protection Surveillance Centre, some 54%, or 3,163, of cases involving children aged 14 and under were recorded in October, the second month for which schools were open following the first wave of the virus.


https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/54-of-covid-19-cases-in-children-recorded-in-october-1039780.html

CruelSummer

wadacrack wrote: »

Confirmed cases of Covid-19 among children of school-going age increased exponentially across the month of October and into November.

According to official statistics produced on a daily basis by the Health Protection Surveillance Centre, some 54%, or 3,163, of cases involving children aged 14 and under were recorded in October, the second month for which schools were open following the first wave of the virus.


https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/54-of-covid-19-cases-in-children-recorded-in-october-1039780.html

Because it was increasing in the wider population at the same rate. But you keep up your crusade to stop our younger generation getting an education to make yourself feel better. It has to be society’s fault for this mess, it couldn’t be our overlords NPHET or the Government’s mismanagement - the drinkers on the street, the school children attending school, workers having the gall to eat something in a canteen, anyone leaving the house really.
A poster on the other thread stated 90% of cases from the entire week in their county were due to nursing homes. Anything to say about that?

JeffKenna

CruelSummer wrote: »

Because it was increasing in the wider population at the same rate.

That doesn't make any sense. 54% of all cases occured in October and into November. Surely it should be spread out over March, April and May if schools aren't a factor?

Ms2011

bb1234567 wrote: »

The deaths in some parts of small town America are staggering the last few days, South Dakota saw 42 deaths per million today..equivalent of over 200 deaths in a day here. Unfortunately I think this winter for America will prove just how nasty this virus can be if left uncontrolled and confirm that it was only restrictions that saved us from pretty devastating death toll here. Based on current trends in some states it really would not be surprising to see America's death toll hit north of 500,000 by late Winter

I was watching an episode of Dr. Phil were a woman lost both her parents and brother to Covid and her husband was in intensive care on a ventilator and wasn't looking too good. That's alot of death in one family.

whisky_galore

pc7 wrote: »

I’ve kidneys like a small kitten when drinking, while it’s most likely safe outside having a few beers, with no toilets they are peeing and worse outside. One of the pubs last week that was closed had to clean up from people using their outside area as a toilet. That’s just acting like animals.

It's a sad activity. Drinking, pissing and defecating on the street like a wino.

Ted_YNWA

Please add some context and comments if you are using Twitter to back up your views.

Link dump deleted.

iamwhoiam

JeffKenna wrote: »

That doesn't make any sense. 54% of all cases occured in October and into November. Surely it should be spread out over March, April and May if schools aren't a factor?

I presume most of the children were asymptomatic and tested as contacts
Were asymptomatic people being tested in March -April? I honestly can’t remember what was being tested then

normanoffside

JeffKenna wrote: »

That doesn't make any sense. 54% of all cases occured in October and into November. Surely it should be spread out over March, April and May if schools aren't a factor?

First off, Kids weren't being tested during the first wave in any great numbers.
Since schools have gone back it's a lot easier to get a test and kids have been tested a lot.

Secondly almost 50% of all our recorded cases have occurred since October.
On September 30th we had 36k recorded cases. Today we have almost 70k.

So I would say cases in kids have been going up exactly in line with the cases in the wider population.

wadacrack

Ted_YNWA wrote: »

Please add some context and comments if you are using Twitter to back up your views.

Link dump deleted.

Context and comment is not needed for every post. It was a link that provided an update on what happening in America. Strange post

wadacrack

CruelSummer wrote: »

Because it was increasing in the wider population at the same rate. But you keep up your crusade to stop our younger generation getting an education to make yourself feel better. It has to be society’s fault for this mess, it couldn’t be our overlords NPHET or the Government’s mismanagement - the drinkers on the street, the school children attending school, workers having the gall to eat something in a canteen, anyone leaving the house really.
A poster on the other thread stated 90% of cases from the entire week in their county were due to nursing homes. Anything to say about that?

I posted an update. I have never really stated my views on Schools in this thread. The lack of transparency I believe will lead to public trust decreasing

JeffKenna

normanoffside wrote: »

First off, Kids weren't being tested during the first wave in any great numbers.
Since schools have gone back it's a lot easier to get a test and kids have been tested a lot.

Secondly almost 50% of all our recorded cases have occurred since October.
On September 30th we had 36k recorded cases. Today we have almost 70k.

So I would say cases in kids have been going up exactly in line with the cases in the wider population.

Fair enough, never realised so many cases occurred since September.

khalessi

normanoffside wrote: »

First off, Kids weren't being tested during the first wave in any great numbers.
Since schools have gone back it's a lot easier to get a test and kids have been tested a lot.

Secondly almost 50% of all our recorded cases have occurred since October.
On September 30th we had 36k recorded cases. Today we have almost 70k.

So I would say cases in kids have been going up exactly in line with the cases in the wider population.

Only last week the Irish Times were querying whether covid testing is fit for purpose in schools https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/is-covid-19-testing-and-tracing-system-for-schools-fit-for-purpose-1.4403817

Children are being tested but most are counted as communtiy cases not school transmission because schools are magic. When HSE were giving report couple of Thursdays ago Dr. Abigail Collins, felt happy enough to reveal that they were being very conservative with who they pick as a close contact in schools.

The rules for a member of staff being considered a close contact are a joke but hey ho as long as the fingures show it is safe.

Drumpot

wadacrack wrote: »

I posted an update. I have never really stated my views on Schools in this thread. The lack of transparency I believe will lead to public trust decreasing

I’m not understanding how authority’s can be so confident about transmission in school environments. I am fine with schools being open, but I still can’t understand how schools are supposedly low risk environments.

In general most people are believed to be asymptomatic. This is more so the case in younger people/children. I’d say it’s very possible an entire class could be infected and there would be only a handful or even none who may show any symptoms. There’s also a reasonable chance a child could infect their parents/siblings and they too with be asymptomatic and never know it.

There is a motive for all authorities across the world to peddle the idea that schools are safe. This does not imply they are doing this, more they have an incentive to convince populations that schools are fine. It makes sense and does generally suit most of society that schools should remain open for multiple reasons.

I think of this like the confusion of masks early on in the year. Masks have always been a help, the authority’s knew this in February. Fauci at least had the stones to be honest and come out and say it that they lied about the effectiveness of masks because they needed to make sure their healthcare workers could have enough PPE.

So right now, whatever data we have is limited. Most children are A-symptomatic, so the only ones we find are either the few who are symptomatic or ones who are close contacts of infected people.

It’s the contradictions that cause issues. There is no evidence that children spread the virus any less then adults, there has been no scientific explanation for this supposed anomaly. So what is unique about school settings that means the virus doesn’t spread? If a child coughs or sneezes in a class or even breaths out the virus, how is this different from any person doing the same thing in a small room with 25+ people in close proximity.

Something needs to make sense for me to follow a line of thought. I honestly can’t understand the school enigma.

fits

Drumpot wrote: »

I’m not understanding how authority’s can be so confident about transmission in school environments. I am fine with schools being open, but I still can’t understand how schools are supposedly low risk environments.
... .

Something needs to make sense for me to follow a line of thought. I honestly can’t understand the school enigma.

How about this. Schools are open, cases are decreasing.

8k71ps

fits wrote: »

How about this. Schools are open, cases are decreasing.

Bullet proof argument, I'm surprised I can't see your brain from here because of the sheer size of it. People are blatantly breaking restrictions but cases are going down, surely the breaking of restrictions has no impact on cases. People coming from the north can't be a factor because the cases are going down. They should get you in the HSPC, they need more high calibre statisticians in there.

And it's not even true, there appears to be a very large upwards pressure in cases despite everything being done! We do see them rising very slightly week to week and it looks as they either there are vagrants everywhere breaking these restrictions (which I don't particularly see, or at the very least the level required for it to be the name) or there are other factors not being accounted for, namely schools and employers refusing to let staff working from home despite them being fully capable of doing so.

Anyone in their right mind without political pressure would at the very least begin mass testing in schools to make sure, as one of the last things entirely operational, they aren't a large vector if not the main one. Either that or they're already aware of the massive risk, which at this point is probably the more likely scenario.

majcos

Drumpot wrote: »

I’m not understanding how authority’s can be so confident about transmission in school environments. I am fine with schools being open, but I still can’t understand how schools are supposedly low risk environments.

In general most people are believed to be asymptomatic. This is more so the case in younger people/children. I’d say it’s very possible an entire class could be infected and there would be only a handful or even none who may show any symptoms. There’s also a reasonable chance a child could infect their parents/siblings and they too with be asymptomatic and never know it.

There is a motive for all authorities across the world to peddle the idea that schools are safe. This does not imply they are doing this, more they have an incentive to convince populations that schools are fine. It makes sense and does generally suit most of society that schools should remain open for multiple reasons.

I think of this like the confusion of masks early on in the year. Masks have always been a help, the authority’s knew this in February. Fauci at least had the stones to be honest and come out and say it that they lied about the effectiveness of masks because they needed to make sure their healthcare workers could have enough PPE.

So right now, whatever data we have is limited. Most children are A-symptomatic, so the only ones we find are either the few who are symptomatic or ones who are close contacts of infected people.

It’s the contradictions that cause issues. There is no evidence that children spread the virus any less then adults, there has been no scientific explanation for this supposed anomaly. So what is unique about school settings that means the virus doesn’t spread? If a child coughs or sneezes in a class or even breaths out the virus, how is this different from any person doing the same thing in a small room with 25+ people in close proximity.

Something needs to make sense for me to follow a line of thought. I honestly can’t understand the school enigma.

Mass testing in Irish schools up to mid-October gave a low positivity rate which suggests that transmission is not as high in schools as it is other environments. Percentage of positive tests in school age groups was lower at that point than it was in the community.

At the time of the analysis, the positivity rate in school children was 2-3% versus positivity rate in general population of about 7%.

Percentage of Covid cases in school aged children before schools reopened was 14.3% and since schools reopened, up to mid-October, it was 14.1%. Students were not getting it at any higher rate in the schools than they were without schools.

Mass testing in 634 Irish schools of 15,632 showed a positivity rate of 1.9% in secondary schools, 2.7% in primary school, with highest positivity rate in childcare facilities of 4.7% but even that is still lower than the positivity rate at the time in wider community of 6.6%. If a very significant number of cases were being missed, the percentage positive would have been higher than the overall community rates.

Mass testing was specifically carried out in schools where there was a confirmed case/cases and in schools where based on public health risk assessment, there was a higher risk of transmission. So if anything, there was bias in the school related testing towards finding more positive cases but it still returned a low positivity rate.

There will always be exceptions to the normal rates that could lead to a higher positivity rate within an individual school, but nationwide decisions should not be made on anomalies at one school or a few schools.

Ireland currently has the third lowest 14 day cumulative incidence rate at 110.7 per 100,000 of 31 countries reported on by European CDC. They may be a time that schools need or should be closed, but based on these figures I don’t think it is now.

Drumpot

majcos wrote: »

Mass testing in Irish schools up to mid-October gave a low positivity rate which suggests that transmission is not as high in schools as it is other environments. Percentage of positive tests in school age groups was lower at that point than it was in the community.

At the time of the analysis, the positivity rate in school children was 2-3% versus positivity rate in general population of about 7%.

Percentage of Covid cases in school aged children before schools reopened was 14.3% and since schools reopened, up to mid-October, it was 14.1%. Students were not getting it at any higher rate in the schools than they were without schools.

Mass testing in 634 Irish schools of 15,632 showed a positivity rate of 1.9% in secondary schools, 2.7% in primary school, with highest positivity rate in childcare facilities of 4.7% but even that is still lower than the positivity rate at the time in wider community of 6.6%. If a very significant number of cases were being missed, the percentage positive would have been higher than the overall community rates.

Mass testing was specifically carried out in schools where there was a confirmed case/cases and in schools where based on public health risk assessment, there was a higher risk of transmission. So if anything, there was bias in the school related testing towards finding more positive cases but it still returned a low positivity rate.

There will always be exceptions to the normal rates that could lead to a higher positivity rate within an individual school, but nationwide decisions should not be made on anomalies at one school or a few schools.

Ireland currently has the third lowest 14 day cumulative incidence rate at 110.7 per 100,000 of 31 countries reported on by European CDC. They may be a time that schools need or should be closed, but based on these figures I don’t think it is now.

Thanks for the comprehensive response, I wasn’t suggesting schools be closed , just outlining that I can’t work out why they are apparently safer.

Part of my issue is still that it doesn’t explain why schools are “safer” environments, I can see that what you are saying suggests schools are maybe not transmitting it as much, but not much understanding why.

Just a couple of things that are unclear but admittedly more anecdotal then necessarily factually accurate. I know of teachers and parents of children in classes where there was a positive test, but the class wasn’t tested. A good friend is a teacher and he’s not been informed when certain students tested positive by the school (he found out from the parents only cause he’s a football coach outside of school and parent’s contacted him to inform them why their child missed training).

There appears to be a certain strategy going on with regards to schools that’s not completely transparent to all involved. I’d also argue that it’s more important now (when numbers are high) to get an accurate reflection of the effects of schools then when numbers were lower in September.

Thanks again for providing that information. It explains somewhat why schools are seen as possibly less risk but it doesn’t explain why.

I posted this a few days ago, I thought it might be worth mentioning again.

There have been over 2,400 cases detected in schools in Northern Ireland since the start of term in August until the end of the first week of November.

All 39 of NI's special schools had at least one positive case.

What is ROI doing differently in relation to precautions in schools? Short answer is I dont know.

khalessi

Deleted User wrote: »

I posted this a few days ago, I thought it might be worth mentioning again.

There have been over 2,400 cases detected in schools in Northern Ireland since the start of term in August until the end of the first week of November.

All 39 of NI's special schools had at least one positive case.

What is ROI doing differently in relation to precautions in schools? Short answer is I dont know.

Do we know what the criteria is in Northern Ireland for identifying a close case or having a case designated as a school transmission?

I just think back to when Chernobyl occured, there were sheep in the North which had radiation but that radiation stopped at the invisible border.

majcos

Drumpot wrote: »

Thanks for the comprehensive response, I wasn’t suggesting schools be closed , just outlining that I can’t work out why they are apparently safer.

Part of my issue is still that it doesn’t explain why schools are “safer” environments, I can see that what you are saying suggests schools are maybe not transmitting it as much, but not much understanding why.

Just a couple of things that are unclear but admittedly more anecdotal then necessarily factually accurate. I know of teachers and parents of children in classes where there was a positive test, but the class wasn’t tested. A good friend is a teacher and he’s not been informed when certain students tested positive by the school (he found out from the parents only cause he’s a football coach outside of school and parent’s contacted him to inform them why their child missed training).

There appears to be a certain strategy going on with regards to schools that’s not completely transparent to all involved. I’d also argue that it’s more important now (when numbers are high) to get an accurate reflection of the effects of schools then when numbers were lower in September.

Thanks again for providing that information. It explains somewhat why schools are seen as possibly less risk but it doesn’t explain why.

I think whole classes are not necessarily being tested because of the low positivity rates found when other classes have been tested. In the data I mention above, testing was specifically done in classes with positive cases and the positivity rate was still low. That doesn’t mean that some cases are missed, but the percentage of transmission is low. And it doesn’t mean that there isn’t some risk, but I suppose to test entire classes twice and many multiple classes twice in a secondary school would require massive resources with relatively small yield from a public health perspective.

The reason I looked in to this data so closely was because I have a high risk personal situation in a family member linked to schools. I was very nervous about the reopening, especially in the manner it was done. I was sure it would be a graduated process with divided hours and a blend of online and face to face teaching. The data has actually been reassuring although no-one can say the risk of transmission in schools is zero.

Numbers in Ireland are currently low compared to rest of Europe and have fallen again despite schools being open except for mid-term.

Just as teachers are not necessarily all tested when someone in their school environment tests positive, in the hospital environment, many staff have never been tested even once despite caring for patients with Covid and being exposed to unsuspected cases with perhaps only a mask and no other PPE who subsequently test positive.

And like teachers are not informed when certain students test positive, hospital staff are not necessarily informed either when a colleague tests positive either, although many who do test positive will take it upon themselves to alert as many others as they can. I suppose this comes under patient confidentiality. When a hospital staff member is deemed a close contact, they may not know the source of that close contact.

I am not saying more testing is a bad idea, but I do not think there is a conspiracy to hide cases in schools. I think more testing in both schools and hospitals would be wise.

As for why there is less transmission among children, I don’t know but I’m very very glad that is the case! Figuring that out could potentially be very important scientifically as may help understanding of immunity etc. Maybe as more cases asymptomatic and milder than influenza in children, viral load might be lower which would reduce rate of transmission. As to why the viral load might be or stay lower, again I do not know.