Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

zpehtsfd

Monkfish cut to 7/2 on BF for the RSA.

Feels like everyone is lumping on the novice chase treble. :cool:

Slattsy

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Monkfish cut to 7/2 on BF for the RSA.

Feels like everyone is lumping on the novice chase treble. :cool:

Lovely, i'm on at 10s!

akelly02

altior into 6s now.....

they will be 4/1 fav , him and chacun pour soi , after he wins the tingle creek on saturday , hopefully!!!!!!!!!!!

Pogue eile

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The Marsh Plate is a glorified plate, it is not a cup race.

Connections are chickening out, the RSA is the one to win.

I am sorry but yes you can crab on the form if you like, there is zero substance to it but each to their own and all that. But the suggestion that going over 2m 4f instead of 3m is 'chickening out' is without question the stupidest thing I have heard you come out with, an achievement in itself considering the Arkle and Asterion Forlonge references earlier

Pogue eile

akelly02 wrote: »

altior into 6s now.....

they will be 4/1 fav , him and chacun pour soi , after he wins the tingle creek on saturday , hopefully!!!!!!!!!!!

An 11 year old and a sick note, be plenty of value to be had further down the betting one would imagine.

akelly02

Pogue eile wrote: »

An 11 year old and a sick note, be plenty of value to be had further down the betting one would imagine.

Kauto star didnt mind turning 12 a few days later when he won his 5th king george.

altior will prove on saturday he hasnt lost it , so for me the value lies with him.

has been trimmed from 8s to 6s without running , so expect another clipping on saturday

Pogue eile

akelly02 wrote: »

Kauto star didnt mind turning 12 a few days later when he won his 5th king george.

altior will prove on saturday he hasnt lost it , so for me the value lies with him.

has been trimmed from 8s to 6s without running , so expect another clipping on saturday

I certainly wouldn't dismiss him but its a hell of an ask and 6/1 is not value and anything shorter would definitely represent bad value.

akelly02

Pogue eile wrote: »

I certainly wouldn't dismiss him but its a hell of an ask and 6/1 is not value and anything shorter would definitely represent bad value.

my confidence is mainly sue to a lack of viable alternatives, weak division

Coneygree

akelly02 wrote: »

my confidence is mainly sue to a lack of viable alternatives, weak division

Did you get on the Tingle Creek/March double a few weeks back? Still 14/1 on 365.

akelly02

Coneygree wrote: »

Did you get on the Tingle Creek/March double a few weeks back? Still 14/1 on 365.

no , but the brother has

my interest is singles and one big treble of

shishkin arkle 3/1
epatante champ hurdle 7/2
altior champion chase 8/1

Plasandrunt

Added N'Golo any race @ 16s and Benie Des Deiux @ 8s for the Mares chase today.

Also attempted a rollup with Leicester at home at Fulham/Ferny Hollow Supreme double. Leicester 2-0 down at half time....

del roy

Hope this is not too much, too heavy. YESTERDAY MORNING.

Champion Chase

In the two-mile division, the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham went the way of last season’s brave Arkle winner, Put The Kettle On, who outstayed the free-rolling Duc Des Genievres up the hill in a race where Defi Du Seuil was a huge disappointment, stopping quickly after three out. There are clearly still big issues with Philip Hobbs’ talented chaser, but even though he’s out to 20/1 in places, he did travel and jump well on the whole in that race up until the closing stages, so if Hobbs can find the key to him and work out what’s ailing him, he’s still a player in this division and I’ll be keeping a close eye. That’s because the strength in depth is simply not there – while Henry De Bromhead’s mare is admirable, a good jumper and a brave battler up the hill, there are giant holes to be picked in the Arkle form and the form of this race, so if she were to win the Champion Chase, I would be extremely surprised on a form basis.



Chacun Pour Soi and Altior head the market at the time of writing and I would be stunned if either of them were beaten by Put The Kettle On come March. Clearly, that comes with the proviso of ‘with a run’ because the former is, while very talented, made of glass and the latter is rising 11 coming off his most tricky season so far. If those worries weren’t there and we were basing this on ability and form alone, I would say that the 7/1 available on Altior is a loopy price for a horse who could turn up in the Tingle Creek this weekend and hose up, instantly being shortened into about 2/1 for the Champion Chase. I feel like we forget that this is a horse that’s only been beaten once over obstacles – by the aforementioned highest-rated horse in training and over a trip that suited his opponent far more than it did him. We also forget that he came back and easily took care of a field of 160-chasers at Newbury in the Game Spirit afterwards and the racing post comment after the race was: “it would be folly to assume any horse other than he is the one to beat come March”.



Although we haven’t seen him out yet, I have seen nothing in this division that suggests to me that a changing of the guard is ready to occur. Rouge Vif was impressive on good ground in a handicap at Cheltenham, but he’ll have to step up again on that to challenge in this, while of course we haven’t seen Chacun Pour Soi yet, but being beaten by A Plus Tard over 2m last season doesn’t suggest he’s the one to usurp Altior either. Of course, he does have to beat Politologue, who was an excellent winner of this last season, but he’s 3-0 against that rival as it stands. Perhaps it falls to Politologue’s stablemate Greaneteen to improve enough to challenge Altior, but he is often talked about by his trainer Paul Nicholls, as needing an extra half mile sooner rather than later, so there’s every chance he’ll end up in the Ryanair if he goes to Cheltenham – we’ll see if the pair face off in the Tingle Creek!



I think this is the right moment to make the bet, as the Tingle Creek could change the market completely and render this 7/1 a distant dream. Backing him each-way is the shrewd thing to do when you consider his age and his potential for declining slightly, but he’s been there, he’s done it and apart from one blip (if you can even call it that given Cyrname’s achievements!), there is very little quantifiable reason to believe that Altior won’t come back pretty much as good as he was. If he does, he’s simply the best horse in the race and to have that level of simplicity in a market at this time of year is a blessing. Now we cross our fingers that his spin around Sandown Park is as good as it could be and then we can get that cotton wool ready for him before he presumably heads to the Game Spirit again after that.



bettrends advice:
Queen Mother Champion Chase – ALTIOR 1pt E/W @ 7/1 (bet365)

Plasandrunt

Pogue eile wrote: »

Will certainly be one of interest, considering his last win on the flat and at the time Mullins said that he had schooled over hurldes and was a sound jumper.

That was nearly two years ago though, was there a problem?

Entered up in Navan on Saturday in a 2m maiden hurdle.

Will back him for the Supreme once he's declared

Slattsy

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Added N'Golo any race @ 16s and Benie Des Deiux @ 8s for the Mares chase today.

Also attempted a rollup with Leicester at home at Fulham/Ferny Hollow Supreme double. Leicester 2-0 down at half time....

Benie DD going for the chase, is that the word?

Plasandrunt

Mullins Bingo obviously but the market move hard to ignore with cashout available, especially since she's now 5s in places

Slattsy

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Mullins Bingo obviously but the market move hard to ignore with cashout available, especially since she's now 5s in places

Interesting, race looks made for her and probably wants to avoid Honeysuckle again.

Pogue eile

Slattsy wrote: »

Interesting, race looks made for her and probably wants to avoid Honeysuckle again.

Surely if Honeysuckle wins over Christmas then She has to take here chance in the Champion?

NaiveMelodies

Pogue eile wrote: »

Surely if Honeysuckle wins over Christmas then She has to take here chance in the Champion?

Might be hard for them to turn down a penalty kick at Cheltenham.
Would love to see her up against Epatante at some stage.

Dr. Bre

I reckon de brom head will skip the champion with honeysuckle

Slattsy

He skipped it last year, he'll skip it again.

EICVD

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The Marsh Plate is a glorified plate, it is not a cup race.

Connections are chickening out, the RSA is the one to win.

How many RSA winners never seem to show their true potential after winning it? If you genuinely believe you’ve a future gold cup winner you go for the Marsh for the horses longevity.

IAMAMORON

EICVD wrote: »

How many RSA winners never seem to show their true potential after winning it? If you genuinely believe you’ve a future gold cup winner you go for the Marsh for the horses longevity.

How many of these won a Gold Cup ?

2011 Noble Prince
2012 Sir Des Champs
2013 Benefficient
2014 Taquin du Seuil
2015 Vautour
2016 Black Hercules
2017 Yorkhill
2018 Shattered Love
2019 Defi du Seuil
2020 Samcro

RivetingRoger

Pogue eile wrote: »

Surely if Honeysuckle wins over Christmas then She has to take here chance in the Champion?

No
Why would she?

RivetingRoger

IAMAMORON wrote: »

How many of these won a Gold Cup ?

2011 Noble Prince
2012 Sir Des Champs
2013 Benefficient
2014 Taquin du Seuil
2015 Vautour
2016 Black Hercules
2017 Yorkhill
2018 Shattered Love
2019 Defi du Seuil
2020 Samcro

Vautour WOULD

Hulk Hands

aidankkk wrote: »

Some lads have short memories, he'll be available at bigger than evens on the day. Save your money until then, his chance of not getting there is far more significant that the difference between the price he is now and the price he will be in march.

Short memories? Have you blacked out your short-term memory? The idea that "they rarely go off odds on" is a decade outdated. There were 6 odds on shots last year.

In the novice chases in recent years we've had Altior go off 2/9, Simonsig 4/11, Douvan 1/4. Vautour went off evens in this race despite completely flopping on his prep race. EA was a best priced 4/5 on the day last year, with a good few nice unexposed types up against and a lot more question marks by his name. There's absolutely zero chance he's available on the day at anywhere near evens if he goes there undefeated.

IAMAMORON

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Vautour WOULD

Beaten in a King George , he would never have got the trip.

That's why he ran in the Ryanair, another plate race.

Pogue eile

RivetingRoger wrote: »

No
Why would she?

Well if She has beaten all the boys this side of the water, then what's left to beat over the other side outside of Epatante, Epatante has more speed but Honeysuckle has more grit, would be a fascinating race.

Are you saying She is not good enough? On official ratings She is currently 3lbs off Epatante and the same 3lbs off what Annie Power was going into her Champion Hurdle. She is fifth favourite in a race lacking any depth and if She were to beat two of those ahead of her in the betting at Christmas then it would seem a logical move.

She has already won an Irish Champion and a Hattons Grace, I am not talking about running a nag here, and when will De Bromhead have another Champion Hurdle horse?

Pogue eile

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Beaten in a King George , he would never have got the trip.

That's why he ran in the Ryanair, another plate race.

Are you know trying to crab on Vatour?

You are on fire this week

carq

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Entered up in Navan on Saturday in a 2m maiden hurdle.

Will back him for the Supreme once he's declared

What horse is this?

akelly02

Pogue eile wrote: »

Well if She has beaten all the boys this side of the water, then what's left to beat over the other side outside of Epatante, Epatante has more speed but Honeysuckle has more grit, would be a fascinating race.

Are you saying She is not good enough? On official ratings She is currently 3lbs off Epatante and the same 3lbs off what Annie Power was going into her Champion Hurdle. She is fifth favourite in a race lacking any depth and if She were to beat two of those ahead of her in the betting at Christmas then it would seem a logical move.

She has already won an Irish Champion and a Hattons Grace, I am not talking about running a nag here, and when will De Bromhead have another Champion Hurdle horse?

i hope she doesnt go , she is a medium sized threat to epatante in my opinion