Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Renjit

kwestfan08 wrote: »

Any word when we can get back to eating bats?

Soon.

JP100

micks_address wrote: »

Agree mid term would have no effect on numbers... Numbers are set two weeks in advance

More complete misunderstanding of how this virus works and works itself in to the data at a much earlier stage than some magical needed 2 week duration.

Widdensushi

kwestfan08 wrote: »

Any word when we can get back to eating bats?

It's the day for cooking them up in cauldron s

Spanish Eyes

Quietest Halloween for many a year, no fireworks in the adjacent park, no knocks at the door.

Dogs and humans happy out.

Stheno

JP100 wrote: »

More complete misunderstanding of how this virus works and works itself in to the data at a much earlier stage than some magical needed 2 week duration.

You seem a bit fixated on this

JP100

JP100 wrote: »

Well that's where you're completely wrong and show a complete misunderstanding of how this works itself in to the data at a much earlier stage than two weeks plus.

Schools being off at the moment is a very significant variable as individuals who are infectious have not been in a crowded school for the past 8 days. It only takes 4 or 5 days sometimes less from the point of an individual being infected by somebody else and then turning up at a test centre. As such, of course, schools being closed is already significantly playing itself in to the data.

Look up the age groups where cases are falling and the fact that cases are falling since the 21st

GT89

caveat emptor wrote: »

Don't often agree with you. The kids here where going to come hell or high water and tbh I would have too back in the day Preprepared bags all divvied out. No comment on the parents letting their kids out but considering they are out everyday playing they couldn't give a **** I guess. Very happy children, minimal risk. If only there were more bonfires to burn away the pox :pac:

I felt very safe ...........

That is the only type of ppe that will protect you from a virus. A cloth mask will not work.

screamer

The drop in numbers I believe is mainly due to the breakdown of track and trace. I’d imagine there is such a stigma around Covid that a lot of people wouldn’t have alerted close contacts. Even if they’re testing somewhere near compatible numbers, I don’t think the people being tested are as likely to have the virus as contacts of confirmed cases.
For this reason I think the Testing sample Is skewed and I don’t think the numbers being reported are accurately reflecting the situation. I do hope though that the school closures will help to bring the numbers down, time will tell.

ACitizenErased

screamer wrote: »

The drop in numbers I believe is mainly due to the breakdown of track and trace. I’d imagine there is such a stigma around Covid that a lot of people wouldn’t have alerted close contacts. Even if they’re testing somewhere near compatible numbers, I don’t think the people being tested are as likely to have the virus as contacts of confirmed cases.
For this reason I think the Testing sample Is skewed and I don’t think the numbers being reported are accurately reflecting the situation. I do hope though that the school closures will help to bring the numbers down, time will tell.

Can ya explain how the positivity rate is dropping based on that logic?

More untracked cases = higher viral load in the community = higher positivity rate

Sammy2012

Have taken a break from covid news this week. But day on day, cases are down alot this week. So can anyone tell me are they still testing the same amount of people as they were two weeks ago or are they testing less?

JP100

JP100 wrote: »

More complete misunderstanding of how this virus works and works itself in to the data at a much earlier stage than some magical needed 2 week duration.

We have been told continuously that cases weren’t showing up in school kids due to asymtomatics and poor contact tracing but were causing household spread. Suddenly within a few days of midterm it’s all these kids not showing up for testing that is causing the fall. Complete breakdown of logic and any critical thinking

ACitizenErased

Sammy2012 wrote: »

Have taken a break from covid news this week. But day on day, cases are down alot this week. So can anyone tell me are they still testing the same amount of people as they were two weeks ago or are they testing less?

There was 95,846 tests in last 7 days, make of that what you will.

screamer

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Can ya explain how the positivity rate is dropping based on that logic?

More untracked cases = higher viral load in the community = higher positivity rate

If they are testing random people, they have a lesser chance of being positive than a close contact of a confirmed case. Many of the people who should be tested are asymptomatic, and might not even think they have Covid. We are only testing a small sample of people compared to our population too. I’m sure we’ll see the effects of level 5 etc in a few weeks, but will be interesting to see what plays out. I’m just not convinced by the numbers or rather the inference that we have Covid on the run, it’s too quick and too good to be true, that’s just my opinion.

owlbethere

screamer wrote: »

The drop in numbers I believe is mainly due to the breakdown of track and trace. I’d imagine there is such a stigma around Covid that a lot of people wouldn’t have alerted close contacts. Even if they’re testing somewhere near compatible numbers, I don’t think the people being tested are as likely to have the virus as contacts of confirmed cases.
For this reason I think the Testing sample Is skewed and I don’t think the numbers being reported are accurately reflecting the situation. I do hope though that the school closures will help to bring the numbers down, time will tell.

I know covid can appear frightening but please there really shouldnt be a stigma attached to it. I hope people followed the guidelines and helped with the contact tracing element.

When I tested a few weeks ago, I kept in touch with my small circle of close contacts and I found that comforting and reassuring because no body else was showing symptoms. There was a small likely hood of community transmission with me if I got a positive. I remained calm throughout and I didn't panic and thankfully all negative.

There really shouldnt be a stigma attached to it.

screamer

screamer wrote: »

If they are testing random people, they have a lesser chance of being positive than a close contact of a confirmed case. Many of the people who should be tested are asymptomatic, and might not even think they have Covid. We are only testing a small sample of people compared to our population too. I’m sure we’ll see the effects of level 5 etc in a few weeks, but will be interesting to see what plays out. I’m just not convinced by the numbers or rather the inference that we have Covid on the run, it’s too quick and too good to be true, that’s just my opinion.

It’s always advisable to make yourself aware of the facts before spouting a half baked theory. Per the below link, in the past two weeks we have made more contact tracing call 3s than at any point in the last few months

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard.html

JP100

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Look up the age groups where cases are falling and the fact that cases are falling since the 21st

Cases are indeed falling and very much further aided and abetted by the fact that schools have been closed going on 9 days. Failure to acknowledge that shows a complete misunderstanding of how this virus works and the mere fact that it takes on average just 4 to 5 days for an infected individual to display symptoms.

Sammy2012

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There was 95,846 tests in last 7 days, make of that what you will.

Still high levels of testing. That's very good then. Hopefully we are moving in the right direction so.

MerlinSouthDub

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Quietest Halloween for many a year, no fireworks in the adjacent park, no knocks at the door.

Dogs and humans happy out.

Should have a lockdown every Halloween. Dog sleeping happily on the couch, instead of shivering with fear at the fireworks. Lovely and quiet.

JP100

JP100 wrote: »

Cases are indeed falling and very much further aided and abetted by the fact that schools have been closed going on 9 days. Failure to acknowledge that shows a complete misunderstanding of how this virus works and the mere fact that it takes on average just 4 to 5 days for an infected individual to display symptoms.

If the drop off was purely down to kids not getting it in school, to achieve the falloff in cases we have seen would have cases in school age groups falling off a cliff. And mean incubation is 5 to 6 days, add in a day for referral and another for test result and suddenly you are at 7 to 8 days. Schools only off 8 days and cases have been falling for a week at this stage. Plus the main contention has been the the school cases are seeding household outbreaks and community spread. Another 5 to 7 days for the impact to be seen there.

JP100

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We have been told continuously that cases weren’t showing up in school kids due to asymtomatics and poor contact tracing but were causing household spread. Suddenly within a few days of midterm it’s all these kids not showing up for testing that is causing the fall. Complete breakdown of logic and any critical thinking

Mother of God, such buffoonery. Schools are not made up of either one or the other. Some folk are symptomatic, some are not. It's not a case of one or the other and both will feed in to the data in their own way. For instance, a young person who is asymptomatic (more likely in a younger person) may pass it on to an adult in a school who goes on to be symptomatic. Sooner or later particularly in a crowded school it works itself in to the data.

Widdensushi

JP100 wrote: »

Mother of God, such buffoonery. Schools are not made up of either one or the other. Some folk are symptomatic, some are not. It's not a case of one or the other and both will feed in to the data in their own way. For instance, a young person who is asymptomatic (more likely in a younger person) may pass it on to an adult in a school who goes on to be symptomatic. Sooner or later particularly in a crowded school it works itself in to the data.

What's your prediction for numbers next week?

JP100

JP100 wrote: »

Mother of God, such buffoonery. Schools are not made up of either one or the other. Some folk are symptomatic, some are not. It's not a case of one or the other and both will feed in to the data in their own way. For instance, a young person who is asymptomatic (more likely in a younger person) may pass it on to an adult in a school who goes on to be symptomatic. Sooner or later particularly in a crowded school it works itself in to the data.

5 days incubation in child, 5 days in adult, referral, test, result, how is that working it’s way into the data as soon as schools close for midterm. Unbelievably obtuse

screamer

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It’s always advisable to make yourself aware of the facts before spouting a half baked theory. Per the below link, in the past two weeks we have made more contact tracing call 3s than at any point in the last few months

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard.html

Listen, I’m not asking anyone to agree with me, I’m extremely sceptical of the trends being reported. The contact tracing completely collapsed not long ago, so again, this data thrown forward about the most contact tracing calls is also something i view with scepticism. You can believe what will, I’m not going to criticise you for that. I’ll hold fire on accepting these numbers and trends for the moment.

PCeeeee

GT89 wrote: »

That is the only type of ppe that will protect you from a virus. A cloth mask will not work.

Define work.

JP100

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If the drop off was purely down to kids not getting it in school, to achieve the falloff in cases we have seen would have cases in school age groups falling off a cliff. And mean incubation is 5 to 6 days, add in a day for referral and another for test result and suddenly you are at 7 to 8 days. Schools only off 8 days and cases have been falling for a week at this stage. Plus the main contention has been the the school cases are seeding household outbreaks and community spread. Another 5 to 7 days for the impact to be seen there.

Please desist from the constant buffoonery and trying to misrepresent what I said. I never said the drop off was purely down to schools, I said the drop off was further aided and abetted by folk (almost a million people) not being in crowded schools for going on 9 days now. A failure to understand that is a failure to understand how the virus works on a basic level. Also, you seem to think schools are just made up of young people but I hate to break it to you but schools are made up of people from 4 to 66 years old!

JP100

Widdensushi wrote: »

What's your prediction for numbers next week?

My prediction is that after the schools being back about a week or so, numbers will rise again with a high chance it'll be blamed on something else!

Thierry12

screamer wrote: »

The drop in numbers I believe is mainly due to the breakdown of track and trace. I’d imagine there is such a stigma around Covid that a lot of people wouldn’t have alerted close contacts. Even if they’re testing somewhere near compatible numbers, I don’t think the people being tested are as likely to have the virus as contacts of confirmed cases.
For this reason I think the Testing sample Is skewed and I don’t think the numbers being reported are accurately reflecting the situation. I do hope though that the school closures will help to bring the numbers down, time will tell.

Alot of people are out of work now, WFH, not going out at all.

If they had a sniffle and cough pre level 3 they would go for a test as had to go work, hairdresser etc

Now whats the point going for a test if your gonna be at home all the time and only a bit of a flu?

We will see less tests carried out in next few weeks

GT89

Thierry12 wrote: »

Alot of people are out of work now, WFH, not going out at all.

If they had a sniffle and cough pre level 3 they would go for a test as had to go work, hairdresser etc

Now whats the point going for a test if your gonna be at home all the time and only a bit of a flu?

We will see less tests carried out in next few weeks

Yep that's exactly what will happen it's a casedemic atm

JP100

JP100 wrote: »

Please desist from the constant buffoonery and trying to misrepresent what I said. I never said the drop off was purely down to schools, I said the drop off was further aided and abetted by folk (almost a million people) not being in crowded schools for going on 9 days now. A failure to understand that is a failure to understand how the virus works on a basic level. Also, you seem to think schools are just made up of young people but I hate to break it to you but schools are made up of people from 4 to 66 years old!

JP100 wrote: »

Schools close for over a week and case numbers drop off a cliff! Shock! Horror!

Can’t even stay consistent with your buffoonery from just a few hours ago.

The impact from school midterm, whether a four year old Junior, or 65 year old teacher on the edge of retirement, could not show up in the data until the last day or two at the earliest. Given that cases from school would then transfer to households the real impact can’t be known for a few more days yet

Thierry12

Thierry12 wrote: »

Alot of people are out of work now, WFH, not going out at all.

If they had a sniffle and cough pre level 3 they would go for a test as had to go work, hairdresser etc

Now whats the point going for a test if your gonna be at home all the time and only a bit of a flu?

We will see less tests carried out in next few weeks

Cases dropping quicker than number of tests. Less people are getting tested because less people have symptoms, simple as that