Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Jim_Hodge

440Hertz wrote: »

If there’s that enormous gap in positivity rates between Northern Ireland and the Republic, leaving the border open during this is probably going to just cause a major reinfection when the restrictions end.

What’s going on up there? Are we looking at a genuine gap or are they triaging access to testing more dramatically, resulting in a higher % of definitely symptomatic people coming forward for testing?

If it is simply a difference in rates and those northern Irish swab numbers are accurate and comparable, it’s just going to act as a huge reservoir and the border counties will be back in a mess again within a few weeks after we reopen.

As horrendously sensitive as the issue is, are we going to have to look at restricting movements across the border
?

The only alternative I can see is a permanent quarantine measure eg Level 3+ for the border counties and effectively sacrificing them to the higher infection rates in Northern Ireland and imposing the limits between them and the rest of the Republic, which is far from ideal either and it would only be about assuaging political sensitivities.

Basically, the border counties would have to act as a buffer zone.

The alternative would seem to be to drift back to a third lockdown after Christmas.

Being realistic about this, very little is going to change until we see vaccines arriving and significant uptake.
So I can’t see how we aren’t just going to rinse and repeat unless we take very dramatic steps to prevent reintroduction of infection.

Unfortunately, if you're right, a buffer of border counties won't work. Huge numbers travel from NI to well beyond the border counties on a daily commute to the building industry in particular.

440Hertz

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

The BA wasn't able to stop movements across a hard border, what makes you think we can restrict movements across a non existent border?

Well the only alternative is likely to be the border counties becoming infected and ending up becoming de facto a buffer zone by ending up under restrictions as cases rise if they keep being reinfected by high levels of COVID in Northern Ireland.

Also if the NI rates remain persistently high it may well lose travel access to GB and much of Europe.

Whatever is going on up there they need to get it in line with the Republic and it should be one of the lowest infection areas in the U.K. and Europe generally. The population density and all sorts of other factors should be in their favour. I suspect it’s human factors and politics that are playing against them.

This shouldn’t be a struggle for Northern Ireland, but has become one for some reason and they need to urgently get to the bottom of why that is the case.

It’s a small, largely self contained place with low population density, yet its having the same issues as parts of the North of England.

KrustyUCC

IrishStuff09 wrote: »

674 positive swabs, 4.78% positivity on 14,095

7 day positivity now down to 5.2%

Good news

440Hertz

440Hertz wrote: »

If there’s that enormous gap in positivity rates between Northern Ireland and the Republic, leaving the border open during this is probably going to just cause a major reinfection when the restrictions end.

What’s going on up there? Are we looking at a genuine gap or are they triaging access to testing more dramatically, resulting in a higher % of definitely symptomatic people coming forward for testing?

If it is simply a difference in rates and those northern Irish swab numbers are accurate and comparable, it’s just going to act as a huge reservoir and the border counties will be back in a mess again within a few weeks after we reopen.

As horrendously sensitive as the issue is, are we going to have to look at restricting movements across the border
?

The only alternative I can see is a permanent quarantine measure eg Level 3+ for the border counties and effectively sacrificing them to the higher infection rates in Northern Ireland and imposing the limits between them and the rest of the Republic, which is far from ideal either and it would only be about assuaging political sensitivities.

Basically, the border counties would have to act as a buffer zone.

The alternative would seem to be to drift back to a third lockdown after Christmas.

Being realistic about this, very little is going to change until we see vaccines arriving and significant uptake.
So I can’t see how we aren’t just going to rinse and repeat unless we take very dramatic steps to prevent reintroduction of infection.

Im afraid the North will be the undoing of any good that will have been achieved during lockdown in the South. There is way too much connectivity between the North and the South, it would be impossible to shut the border, and if they did manage, then the government would also have to stop all flights entering the country, and passengers on ferrys etc.

440Hertz

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Im afraid the North will be the undoing of any good that will have been achieved during lockdown in the South. There is way too much connectivity between the North and the South, it would be impossible to shut the border, and if they did manage, then the government would also have to stop all flights entering the country, and passengers on ferrys etc.

You can test passengers on flights and ferries and the technology is emerging at an affordable price.

The land border is a major issue, particularly when you’ve a jurisdiction that’s really not taking things very seriously and that’s coming from the top in London as much as Belfast.

Ficheall

So is it correct that our weekly average cases have fallen by 18% in the last week, and our weekly average tests have fallen by 14%?
Would look like we're going in the right direction, but not as quickly as case numbers alone might suggest.


Positivity rate down from 7 to 5.8 seems good though, assuming the people they're testing are as representative as the previous cohorts would have been. If people are having to do their own contact tracing(?), then I'd be slightly concerned that, say, of two positive cases, Cautious Cait would contact more of her potential contacts than the "professionals" might have done, and Hoax Helen might contact none of hers, so you'd end up with the same number of people tested, but with less-likelys replacing most-likelys.
I don't really know how contact tracing is/was handled though, so maybe this isn't a big concern.

ACitizenErased

416 cases
5 deaths

ACitizenErased

Tony Holohan: "We are making progress in suppressing the current rise of COVID-19.

"Ireland is currently one of only four countries in the EU with a reduction in its 7-day incidence.

"Nationally, our reproductive number has reduced to about 1.0."

ACitizenErased

blowitupref

ACitizenErased wrote: »

416 cases
5 deaths

That an early report. RIP to 5. Good to see us get our lowest daily case number since October 4th.

What Username Guidelines

ACitizenErased wrote: »

416 cases
5 deaths

A very welcome drop. Below 500 and all counties in double digits or less.

Stheno

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Thats a huge drop for Dublin

ACitizenErased

Be worth checking the backlog data for today. You'd wonder if they've added the positive swabs that were included earlier in the week.

ACitizenErased

5-day average: 679.8

7-day average: 766.1
(Previous 7 days: 1064.6)

14-day cases/100k: 269.1
(7 days ago: 304.0)

prunudo

Stheno wrote: »

Thats a huge drop for Dublin

Without wanting to be all doom and gloom, I'd still reserve judgement on figures when you see drops like that. Its going the right way but still, early days.

What Username Guidelines

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Be worth checking the backlog data for today. You'd wonder if they've added the positive swabs that were included earlier in the week.

The last 6 days the backlog has been ~150 per day give or take. So we’ve 250ish back today but given private tests or whatever the reason is for a backlog, it’s hard to track. Can only hope we’ve a few more days of cases < swabs ahead of us.

Stheno

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

The last 6 days the backlog has been ~150 per day give or take. So we’ve 250ish back today but given private tests or whatever the reason is for a backlog, it’s hard to track. Can only hope we’ve a few more days of cases < swabs ahead of us.

I thought we'd no backlog? There were more cases than swabs?

branie2

Great to see the numbers down a good bit

ACitizenErased

Two counties had 0 cases today. Not sure if we've had that for a while.

MerlinSouthDub

bilston wrote: »

Actual case nunbers are starting to drop, and the decline seems to be increasing in speed so I don't knownhow to explain the positivity level staying stubbornly high. Maybe the threshold for getting a test is higher in NI than in RoI.

If they are not testing to the same extent as down here, then I wouldn't take much comfort from the decline in case numbers. A 21% + rate means they are likely to be missing a lot of cases. Hospital admissions is probably the one to watch - a lagging indicator but the best you can do if the testing isn't up to scratch.

So Tony was wrong. Awful for the people forced out of work.

Shame the government didn’t stick to level 3.

Fr_Dougal

That’s a huge drop, great news.

440Hertz

Stheno wrote: »

Thats a huge drop for Dublin

It's also a huge drop for Cork, which had been worryingly high for some time.

I was in Cork City Centre yesterday and behaviour is pretty seriously changed. Even just walking around, most people were wearing masks even outdoors and there was no noticeable messing or nonsense, except for a group of guys I saw (from outside), all clustered together and messing around and horse playing at the front of the top deck of a bus - no masks, just acting like it was all a big joke.

I don't think you'll ever get through to that cohort. They just don't care.

ninebeanrows

Level 3 + Household visit ban now showing in the data I would imagine.

Level 5 result bump expected from Wednesday on I would imagine.

landofthetree

Deleted User wrote: »

So Tony was wrong. Awful for the people forced out of work.

Shame the government didn’t stick to level 3.

The gov gave into the hysterical media.

They will know better next time.

2ndcoming

Bit fishy those numbers today, massive drop in lots of counties average figures.

Could it just be the lack of weekend processing staff they talked about?

Away With The Fairies

Stheno wrote: »

Thats a huge drop for Dublin

I don't believe today's figures. Something's up.

Maybe a few more days of low numbers and I might believe it but I think it's too early to tell.

MerlinSouthDub

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I don't believe today's figures. Something's up.

Maybe a few more days of low numbers and I might believe it but I think it's too early to tell.

Fully agree. Numbers are dropping, but today's drop is misleading.

Funsterdelux

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Fully agree. Numbers are dropping, but today's drop is misleading.

Very spooky indeed

440Hertz

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I don't believe today's figures. Something's up.

Maybe a few more days of low numbers and I might believe it but I think it's too early to tell.

You definitely need to see a few days to catch and see a trend. However, it's fairly likely that given the timing, you'll see a fairly sharp drop in cases after around this kind of time, as the incubation period seems to be in that kind of 7 to 14 day band.