Exit Strategy

tom1ie

H8GHOTI wrote: »

Well ya? Is that a surprise?
Besides herd immunity, the other option is some kind of restrictions. The government have covered pretty much all the bases throughout the levels. It’s not really possible to talk about this topic without mentioning the same measures.

The discussion is around which of the measures we should use & at what stage. Could we tweak anything to make it more effective? Should enforcement be better? Could contact tracing be more efficient. After this lockdown, is it possible to open up in such a way that we don’t get a 3rd wave?

Can’t see how we don’t get a 3rd wave.
Waves are created by lockdowns.
If you didn’t have a lockdown you wouldn’t have the downward curve of a wave. Likewise if you didn’t open up you wouldn’t have the upward surge as the virus infects more hosts.
The longer this goes on it will become clear we have three options:

1) open up and go for herd immunity with the result that the health service collapses with a high number of cases which results in a high death rate.

2) go for zero Covid, try and eradicate by closing borders and airports/ports, getting to zero and then quarantine for incoming travellers. Already ruled out by government and dubious if it will work in Ireland due to two different areas operating different approaches on the same island.

3) as we are, protect the vulnerable by locking down at the expense of the economy and hope to jaysus the Eu doesn’t stop lending any time soon.

All 3 options are pretty ****e but which option is the least worse?

Mr. Karate

tom1ie wrote: »

Can’t see how we don’t get a 3rd wave.

They were talking about a 3rd wave already. Supposedly this could go on for 5 years. The Country will be completely destroyed by then. Maybe if the EU/IMF day they'll collect payments from these idiots pensions then maybe they'll figure something else beside continually locking down to by a continuously feckless and useless HSE time.

end of the road

Mr. Karate wrote: »

They were talking about a 3rd wave already. Supposedly this could go on for 5 years. The Country will be completely destroyed by then. Maybe if the EU/IMF day they'll collect payments from these idiots pensions then maybe they'll figure something else beside continually locking down to by a continuously feckless and useless HSE time.

they won't, as the same issues are effecting european nations as a whole and the majority are operating similarly to us with the odd deviation.

tom1ie

end of the road wrote: »

they won't, as the same issues are effecting european nations as a whole and the majority are operating similarly to us with the odd deviation.

So as long as the Eu keep propping up our government by lending money, what we see now is our strategy going forward.

Hobgoblin11

tom1ie wrote: »

Well this is the thing.
We are doing these precautions and getting approx 1000 cases a day anyway.
So if we go for herd immunity without precautions we risk a collapse of the health service.

GOING for herd immunity is immoral

Irish Stones

end of the road wrote: »

that's really irrelevant though as it's not the number of reinfections that is the issue for the herd immunity nonsense, but the fact reinfections can happen.

Reinfections can happen, as it happens with lots of viral diseases, but the numbers of reinfections to this virus are so low so far that it is like it's not happening.

Someone says that immunity to the virus only lasts a very few months, three months on average.
This would mean that by now, a good part of those who got the virus back in March should get the infection again. And this is not happening, so I think that the immunity is quite long if not permanent.

Mr. Karate

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

GOING for herd immunity is immoral

So is keeping us in an endless cycle of being in and out of lockdowns until we economically make 3rd World Countries look rich.

Loafing Oaf

Mr. Karate wrote: »

So is keeping us in an endless cycle of being in and out of lockdowns until we economically make 3rd World Countries look rich.

I suppose the hope is if the virus becomes widely available some time in the middle of next year, we might get away with just one more lockdown after this one...

Mr. Karate

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I suppose the hope is if the virus becomes widely available some time in the middle of next year, we might get away with just one more lockdown after this one...

They were talking about a 3rd one this morning. The fix is definitely in. Its crazy how the Irish are willing to roll over and let Ireland be destroyed by these traitors.

votecounts

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I suppose the hope is if the virus becomes widely available some time in the middle of next year, we might get away with just one more lockdown after this one...

I hope you mean vaccine:)

end of the road

tom1ie wrote: »

So as long as the Eu keep propping up our government by lending money, what we see now is our strategy going forward.

it would likely be our strategy going forward regardless as it's the least risky and least damaging one unfortunately.

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

GOING for herd immunity is immoral

and that's the least of it's problems.
along with the payback being nill for much much higher risks to everything over all.
which shows really it is a ridiculous strategy which barely any country is attempting, even the fabled sweeden.

Mr. Karate wrote: »

They were talking about a 3rd one this morning. The fix is definitely in. Its crazy how the Irish are willing to roll over and let Ireland be destroyed by these traitors.

destroyed? hardly.
the country is mostly working away, only small low contributing parts are suffering but at least it will be temporary.
if we had threw open the doors as people like you want chances are the damage would be permanent and for a lot more.

GazzaL

GazzaL wrote: »

The most realistic exit strategy is that the public won't play along with the utter nonsense being touted by NPHET and will just get on with life regardless. NPHET have no strategy, never mind an exit strategy. They will just call for lockdowns ad infinitum.

Today marks exactly 5 months since I posted this. It also happens to be my most thanked post.

It's as true now as it was back then. I wish it wasn't.

Thankfully, an increasing majority of people see the situation for what it is.

Visit friends and family, have a BBQ, have a few drinks, enjoy the good weather, go to the beach, go somewhere scenic, whatever floats your boat.

It's time to get rid of the snakes.

Have a great St. Patrick's Day!

Oranage2

GazzaL wrote: »

Today marks exactly 5 months since I posted this. It also happens to be my most thanked post.

It's as true now as it was back then. I wish it wasn't.

Thankfully, an increasing majority of people see the situation for what it is.

Visit friends and family, have a BBQ, have a few drinks, enjoy the good weather, go to the beach, go somewhere scenic, whatever floats your boat.

It's time to get rid of the snakes.

Have a great St. Patrick's Day!

Any prediction for the next five months?

Jim2007

GazzaL wrote: »

Today marks exactly 5 months since I posted this. It also happens to be my most thanked post.

It's as true now as it was back then. I wish it wasn't.

Thankfully, an increasing majority of people see the situation for what it is.

Visit friends and family, have a BBQ, have a few drinks, enjoy the good weather, go to the beach, go somewhere scenic, whatever floats your boat.

It's time to get rid of the snakes.

Have a great St. Patrick's Day!

Just because people agree with you does not make something true. And expecting anyone to come up with an exit strategy for a pandemic is not very realistic, just as expecting to return to the old normal after a life changing event is.

And as evidenced on a daily basis most people take the minimum risk necessary to get on with life rather than the maximum allowed. Unfortunately there are some self centered people around who don’t seem to have any qualms about putting their friends and community at risk for no good reason other than selfishness.

Now just like everyone else you have no idea of the long term consequences of having had this virus are. And taking unnecessary risks when a solution is at hand does not seem to be very smart.

So go visit friends, have that BBQ etc but don’t be under any illusions that you’re doing the right thing or that you’re behavior is acceptable to the community at large.

GazzaL

Oranage2 wrote: »

Any prediction for the next five months?

More and more people will ignore the restrictions, hundreds of thousands of people are already done with them. NPHET and the Government will drag their heels, but ultimately they will be dragged back to reality because they will be swimming against the tide.

Jim2007 wrote: »

Just because people agree with you does not make something true. And expecting anyone to come up with an exit strategy for a pandemic is not very realistic, just as expecting to return to the old normal after a life changing event is.

And as evidenced on a daily basis most people take the minimum risk necessary to get on with life rather than the maximum allowed. Unfortunately there are some self centered people around who don’t seem to have any qualms about putting their friends and community at risk for no good reason other than selfishness.

Now just like everyone else you have no idea of the long term consequences of having had this virus are. And taking unnecessary risks when a solution is at hand does not seem to be very smart.

So go visit friends, have that BBQ etc but don’t be under any illusions that you’re doing the right thing or that you’re behavior is acceptable to the community at large.

The UK have an exit strategy. They've published a plan with set milestones and dates to return to normality. You might not like it, but there's no need to tell blatant lies.

prunudo

GazzaL wrote: »

Today marks exactly 5 months since I posted this. It also happens to be my most thanked post.

It's as true now as it was back then. I wish it wasn't.

Thankfully, an increasing majority of people see the situation for what it is.

Visit friends and family, have a BBQ, have a few drinks, enjoy the good weather, go to the beach, go somewhere scenic, whatever floats your boat.

It's time to get rid of the snakes.

Have a great St. Patrick's Day!

Unfortunately a lot has happened in those 5 months. We are in a far better place now than 10 weeks ago but are we better than when you posted your initial post, probably but I don't know.

There is only so long that nphet can command the room, a lot people have now become weary of their constant concern, whether its 6k cases or 400 cases a day. This is obvious with the movement of people, they've made their own risk assessment and are they're now willing to visit friends or family.

I had said before that the public will give it till March 5th and after that any further compliance would be based on good will, that is now baring fruit and I believe the same will happen after April 5th. The big question is at what point businesses will starting pushing the boundaries.

The government and NPHET could have solved a lot of problems by simply allowing some small freedoms such as scrapping the 5km and allowing click and collect etc.

But they gave nothing and lost people

HansKroenke

GazzaL wrote: »

Today marks exactly 5 months since I posted this. It also happens to be my most thanked post.

It's as true now as it was back then. I wish it wasn't.

Thankfully, an increasing majority of people see the situation for what it is.

Visit friends and family, have a BBQ, have a few drinks, enjoy the good weather, go to the beach, go somewhere scenic, whatever floats your boat.

It's time to get rid of the snakes.

Have a great St. Patrick's Day!

Look at the likes counter. Your post was the rational and reasonable position at the time and it remains that way now. It is demonstrable that those advocating for authoritarian societal and economic shutdown are unhinged in a significant way, as the doom mongering, curtain twitching, hysterical, knuckle dragging counter posts to your post have shown us.

Tony Holohan is inept and the behaviour with his dying wife displays his awful traits as a human. If I was him, I would have resigned properly to be with her full time and not try to get back to work ASAP. It is an arrogant, toxic controlling personality he has shown and I detest him. The honorable thing would have been to just step down and I would not begrudge him for it. What is frustrating is that ordinarily I would not have to deal with these toxic ***** in life but the pandemic has made them prominent and impactful to my life which makes the hate particularly strong.

Wanderer78

GazzaL wrote:

Visit friends and family, have a BBQ, have a few drinks, enjoy the good weather, go to the beach, go somewhere scenic, whatever floats your boat.

Twud hardly overwhelm the health system, would it?

Wanderer78

HansKroenke wrote:

Tony Holohan is inept and the behaviour with his dying wife displays his awful traits as a human. If I was him, I would have resigned properly to be with her full time and not try to get back to work ASAP. It is an arrogant, toxic controlling personality he has shown and I detest him.

....or could it be seen that hes a person with incredible strength, that was able to pick himself up from dreadful pain and grief, and go straight back to work, during a serious health crisis......

HansKroenke

Wanderer78 wrote: »

....or could it be seen that hes a person with incredible strength, that was able to pick himself up from dreadful pain and grief, and go straight back to work, during a serious health crisis......

Unfortunately the Cervical Check scandal does not provide him with the the benefit of the doubt.

Wanderer78

HansKroenke wrote:

Unfortunately the Cervical Check scandal does not provide him with the the benefit of the doubt.

That is fair enough i guess, but organisational fcuk ups are exactly that, but he certainly should have dealt with it better

It’s a real mess we find ourselves in. NPHET earn 6 figure salaries and their only remit is Covid. Their only solution so far has been severe lockdown until there is a vaccine and most of the country are vaccinated.

It was up to our elected leaders in government to look at the full picture. But they got absolutely annihilated by the media and hysteria brigade any time they dared go against NPHET.

So now we have a situation were nobody wants responsibility while the country crashes and burns.

basill

The exit strategy is simple. It mirrors the current stance that the government takes with all of its major decision making. Dither, defer and refer the issue to their imperial masters in Brussels. The only thing that will save this country from a deep recession will be the EU formalising its own exit strategy. Ireland will then be shamed into falling in line and our politicians will have something to hang their hats on.

GazzaL

prunudo wrote: »

Unfortunately a lot has happened in those 5 months. We are in a far better place now than 10 weeks ago but are we better than when you posted your initial post, probably but I don't know.

There is only so long that nphet can command the room, a lot people have now become weary of their constant concern, whether its 6k cases or 400 cases a day. This is obvious with the movement of people, they've made their own risk assessment and are they're now willing to visit friends or family.

I had said before that the public will give it till March 5th and after that any further compliance would be based on good will, that is now baring fruit and I believe the same will happen after April 5th. The big question is at what point businesses will starting pushing the boundaries.

Businesses are starting the push the boundaries now as well. One business that I heard had been shut down by the Gardaí have announced today that they are open for business from tomorrow. Not naming names, but they are a very well known business, particularly in Dublin.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s a real mess we find ourselves in. NPHET earn 6 figure salaries and their only remit is Covid. Their only solution so far has been severe lockdown until there is a vaccine and most of the country are vaccinated.

It was up to our elected leaders in government to look at the full picture. But they got absolutely annihilated by the media and hysteria brigade any time they dared go against NPHET.

So now we have a situation were nobody wants responsibility while the country crashes and burns.

havent been outside much today yet, whats happened?

Loafing Oaf

First of all, thanks for reviving my long-dormant thread:p

GazzaL wrote: »

More and more people will ignore the restrictions, hundreds of thousands of people are already done with them. NPHET and the Government will drag their heels, but ultimately they will be dragged back to reality because they will be swimming against the tide.

The kind of quiet, under-the-radar disregard of restrictions will not cause the government to repeal; that's not how these things work. The only effect that will have is to maintain the spread of the virus at moderately high levels, thereby postponing the sunstantial opening up of society until there is mass vaccination.

Tokyo

HansKroenke wrote: »

Tony Holohan is inept and the behaviour with his dying wife displays his awful traits as a human. If I was him, I would have resigned properly to be with her full time and not try to get back to work ASAP.

Mod: Don't even think of taking the conversation in that direction again.

GazzaL

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

First of all, thanks for reviving my long-dormant thread:p



The kind of quiet, under-the-radar disregard of restrictions will not cause the government to repeal; that's not how these things work. The only effect that will have is to maintain the spread of the virus at moderately high levels, thereby postponing the sunstantial opening up of society until there is mass vaccination.

People have been given your message for over a year. Increasingly large numbers of people no longer buy into that narrative and are deciding to ignore the restrictions. There is no going backwards now.

Loafing Oaf

GazzaL wrote: »

People have been given your message for over a year. Increasingly large numbers of people no longer buy into that narrative and are deciding to ignore the restrictions. There is no going backwards now.

My point is this kind of quiet 'ignoring' will not cause the government to actually lift the restrictions. What might do that would be mass, open defiance of them by pub owners, hairdressers etc., and there's very sign of that that I'm aware of.

ElektroToad

All the business groups and associations need to start ramping up the pressure big time on this limp-wristed Govt. It's the only credible voice that cannot be dis-regarded by mainstream media as far-right / left nutjobs.

They've all held up their end of the bargain. But after a year of restrictions, there is no such thing as "non-essential trips or businesses". Everything is essential by now. People are ready to live again. No more pretending.

I also find it pathetic that no one in authority is having an honest conversation about the likely economic cost of these restrictions. This **** ain't free. The UK had their Budget announcement a few weeks ago and they were quite blunt about the need to start raising taxes to plug the hole in their public finances...

Wanderer78

ElektroToad wrote: »

All the business groups and associations need to start ramping up the pressure big time on this limp-wristed Govt. It's the only credible voice that cannot be dis-regarded by mainstream media as far-right / left nutjobs.

They've all held up their end of the bargain. But after a year of restrictions, there is no such thing as "non-essential trips or businesses". Everything is essential by now. People are ready to live again. No more pretending.

I also find it pathetic that no one in authority is having an honest conversation about the likely economic cost of these restrictions. This **** ain't free. The UK had their Budget announcement a few weeks ago and they were quite blunt about the need to start raising taxes to plug the hole in their public finances...

theres no need to actually do this, but since we continually elect fiscal conservatives, its very likely to occur

end of the road

Deleted User wrote: »

The government and NPHET could have solved a lot of problems by simply allowing some small freedoms such as scrapping the 5km and allowing click and collect etc.

But they gave nothing and lost people

they would have had some people not run amuck at christmas meaning we ended up with the highest rate of cases in the world afterwords.
the only people they have "lost" are the minority they never really had.
the majority of us are winning this and people like you have lost, as it should be.
no government was ever going to give in to people like yourself as it would be dangerous.

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s a real mess we find ourselves in. NPHET earn 6 figure salaries and their only remit is Covid. Their only solution so far has been severe lockdown until there is a vaccine and most of the country are vaccinated.

It was up to our elected leaders in government to look at the full picture. But they got absolutely annihilated by the media and hysteria brigade any time they dared go against NPHET.

So now we have a situation were nobody wants responsibility while the country crashes and burns.

lock down has been proven to be the only solution and countries who have engaged in it have been proven correct.
nphet are the national public health emergency team, therefore their focus was going to be public health during a major emergency.
the government looked at the full picture and decided what you wanted would have failed so badly that it would have been beyond dangerous, so they listened to the experts mostly, and when they deviated, eventually realised the experts were right.
there is no hysteria brigade, it's a myth.

GazzaL wrote: »

Businesses are starting the push the boundaries now as well. One business that I heard had been shut down by the Gardaí have announced today that they are open for business from tomorrow. Not naming names, but they are a very well known business, particularly in Dublin.

and they will be shut down either by the end of the day, or the next day.
and because they have refused to obey the instructions of a garda ultimately, they will probably be in actual trouble this time.

GazzaL wrote: »

People have been given your message for over a year. Increasingly large numbers of people no longer buy into that narrative and are deciding to ignore the restrictions. There is no going backwards now.

the government are not going to give in to the minority who think the restrictions don't apply to them.
it's not going to happen, no matter how much you want it, because if they give in on this, those people will push the boundaries further on other issues.

end of the road

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

My point is this kind of quiet 'ignoring' will not cause the government to actually lift the restrictions. What might do that would be mass, open defiance of them by pub owners, hairdressers etc., and there's very sign of that that I'm aware of.

even if that did happen, large fines for every day open with an actual willingness to collect will soften the cough of probably enough of them.

ElektroToad wrote: »

All the business groups and associations need to start ramping up the pressure big time on this limp-wristed Govt. It's the only credible voice that cannot be dis-regarded by mainstream media as far-right / left nutjobs.

They've all held up their end of the bargain. But after a year of restrictions, there is no such thing as "non-essential trips or businesses". Everything is essential by now. People are ready to live again. No more pretending.

I also find it pathetic that no one in authority is having an honest conversation about the likely economic cost of these restrictions. This **** ain't free. The UK had their Budget announcement a few weeks ago and they were quite blunt about the need to start raising taxes to plug the hole in their public finances...

given they will be attempting to hold the country back from actually getting out of this whole thing, then absolutely they can disregarded as whatever not only by the main stream media but by the government.
there is every such thing as non-essential stuff while covid remains a public health issue.
the economic costs of the restrictions are likely nothing compared to the economic cost of uncontrolled covid, i can absolutely bet that conversation took place at the start, during the middle and will do so at the end.

GazzaL

end of the road wrote: »

they would have had some people not run amuck at christmas meaning we ended up with the highest rate of cases in the world afterwords.
the only people they have "lost" are the minority they never really had.
the majority of us are winning this and people like you have lost, as it should be.
no government was ever going to give in to people like yourself as it would be dangerous.




lock down has been proven to be the only solution and countries who have engaged in it have been proven correct.
nphet are the national public health emergency team, therefore their focus was going to be public health during a major emergency.
the government looked at the full picture and decided what you wanted would have failed so badly that it would have been beyond dangerous, so they listened to the experts mostly, and when they deviated, eventually realised the experts were right.
there is no hysteria brigade, it's a myth.




and they will be shut down either by the end of the day, or the next day.
and because they have refused to obey the instructions of a garda ultimately, they will probably be in actual trouble this time.





the government are not going to give in to the minority who think the restrictions don't apply to them.
it's not going to happen, no matter how much you want it, because if they give in on this, those people will push the boundaries further on other issues.

Your whole post smacks of desperation.

The business in question has learned their lesson the first time and they will not be shut down again.

It's as clear as day that increasing numbers of people have had enough of being locked down, being talked down to, being repeatedly blamed for spreading COVID (while NPHET are apparently infallible), being unable to see family and friends, being unable to earn a living, being unable to travel further than 5km from their homes, etc.

You can't deny the will of the people. "Lockdown forever" is not, and never has been, an acceptable solution. If you want to stay in lockdown mode, nobody has a problem with that, but it's outrageous to demand everyone else gives up their lives.

RGS

Wanderer78 wrote: »

theres no need to actually do this, but since we continually elect fiscal conservatives, its very likely to occur

That's nonsense. We have borrowed around 50 billion to paper over this covid crisis. This is on top of the billions borrowed as a result of the 2008 crash.

We have to re pay this money and we might get away without tax increases or service reductions in the October budget we wont have that luxury in october 2022.

This is not free money from the magic money tree.

GazzaL

RGS wrote: »

That's nonsense. We have borrowed around 50 billion to paper over this covid crisis. This is on top of the billions borrowed as a result of the 2008 crash.

We have to re pay this money and we might get away without tax increases or service reductions in the October budget we wont have that luxury in october 2022.

This is not free money from the magic money tree.

It's truly amazing that the pro lockdown crowd still claim that it's free money while our neighbours in the UK are openly talking about the hundreds of billions it has cost them! They're increasing their corporation tax to pay for it.

Bare-faced lies and ignorance.

RGS

GazzaL wrote: »

Your whole post smacks of desperation.

The business in question has learned their lesson the first time and they will not be shut down again.

It's as clear as day that increasing numbers of people have had enough of being locked down, being talked down to, being repeatedly blamed for spreading COVID (while NPHET are apparently infallible), being unable to see family and friends, being unable to earn a living, being unable to travel further than 5km from their homes, etc.

You can't deny the will of the people. "Lockdown forever" is not, and never has been, an acceptable solution. If you want to stay in lockdown mode, nobody has a problem with that, but it's outrageous to demand everyone else gives up their lives.

Agreed.

Lockdown till herd immunity is achieved through vaccination is not an exit strategy. That's a delaying tactic but it appears to be NPHETS strategy without any government push back.

It's clear from the noises from Martin, Harris, nolan and glynn they are not going to give us any relaxation of restrictions on April 5.

Loafing Oaf

end of the road wrote: »

even if that did happen, large fines for every day open with an actual willingness to collect will soften the cough of probably enough of them.

Well the theory would be that if tens of thousands of them were doing it simultaeously it would be effectively impossible to enforce the rules.

But we know that's never going to happen anyway because SME owners are about the last section of Irish society to engage in 'civil disobedience'.

Jim2007

GazzaL wrote: »

It's truly amazing that the pro lockdown crowd still claim that it's free money while our neighbours in the UK are openly talking about the hundreds of billions it has cost them! They're increasing their corporation tax to pay for it.

Bare-faced lies and ignorance.

Here is the thing unlike the UK, Ireland is a net exporter of high valued goods for over thirty years, it one of the things that enabled us to reduce debt from 124% to 58% in line with the likes of Germany, while the UK was stuck at 84%.

So while it’s not free money, it’s not going to be a major hit either.

Jim2007

GazzaL wrote: »

The UK have an exit strategy. They've published a plan with set milestones and dates to return to normality. You might not like it, but there's no need to tell blatant lies.

You seem to have a bit of a problem with facts! They have a proposed plan out of there lockdown not the pandemic.

Wanderer78

RGS wrote: »

That's nonsense. We have borrowed around 50 billion to paper over this covid crisis. This is on top of the billions borrowed as a result of the 2008 crash.

We have to re pay this money and we might get away without tax increases or service reductions in the October budget we wont have that luxury in october 2022.

This is not free money from the magic money tree.

oh ffs, i really wish people would actually look into how our modern monetary systems work. deficits are just the public entity of the money supply, as we have a debt based monetary system, in order to have a growing and expanding economy, we must also have a growing and expanding money supply. the two main methods we do this is by expanding the private sector entity of the system, via credit creation, and of course the public entity, i.e. deficits. but by hanging onto this accent thinking that deficits are the work of the devil, we become primarily over reliant on the private sector entity of the money supply, which tends to lead to excess credit creation, which in turn generally leads to asset bubbles such as property bubbles, and then subsequent 'credit crisis's' i.e busts! and yes, money is indeed magically created in financial institutions in both the public and private sectors, and also baring in mind, when debts are paid off, this in fact is the destruction of money itself, hence the need for new debts, ideally in both the public and private sectors, in a sustainable way.

and again, there is no need for raising taxes to do so, provided your economy can recover, so that the new debts created can be 'serviced', baring in mind, public debts can in fact be rolled over indefinitely, until fully paid, which in some cases can be multiple of decades, sometimes in excess of a century, and also barring in mind, some rates are currently negative.

ElektroToad

Jim2007 wrote: »

Here is the thing unlike the UK, Ireland is a net exporter of high valued goods for over thirty years, it one of the things that enabled us to reduce debt from 124% to 58% in line with the likes of Germany, while the UK was stuck at 84%.

So while it’s not free money, it’s not going to be a major hit either.

Ahem...most of Ireland's "high value exported goods" is most likely just derived from a couple of the big pharma companies here that have large manufacturing operations here (like Pfizer)

It doesn't mean the whole economy will keep on rocking grand. Far from it. The two-tier economy of Ireland (big MNCs vs domestic economy) will likely become even more pronounced and unbalanced than ever before

Jim2007

RGS wrote: »

That's nonsense. We have borrowed around 50 billion to paper over this covid crisis. This is on top of the billions borrowed as a result of the 2008 crash.

Except we paid it back and then some. We reduced our debt per capita from 124% at the height of the crisis down to 58%, while the was at 82% to 85% depending on which version of their figures you take, France at 105% and Germany at 58%.

Red Silurian

They say that if cases drop below 200 at the end of March they'll reopen building sites and relax the 5km restriction

Other figures that need to be taken into account before reopening

R-Number
ICU numbers
Hospital numbers
14 and 7 day new case figures (also 7 day figure should be substantially less than 14 day figure, 50% is a good target to set)

I would think to move to lv5 R needs to be below 1 for 2 weeks, no more than 60 COVID cases in ICU, hospital numbers around the 200 mark, 2,800 new cases and 1,400 new cases in the preceding 14/7 days

This was roughly the criteria for the first phase of easing of restrictions in the first wave and is probably a good model to go with as it served us well for many weeks

Jim2007

ElektroToad wrote: »

Ahem...most of Ireland's "high value exported goods" is most likely just derived from a couple of the big pharma companies here that have large manufacturing operations here (like Pfizer)

It doesn't mean the whole economy will keep on rocking grand. Far from it. The two-tier economy of Ireland (big MNCs vs domestic economy) will likely become even more pronounced and unbalanced than ever before

Ah so having failed on the borrowing argument, let’s try deflect.... the reality is we can afford it, end of story.

Jim2007

GazzaL wrote: »

Businesses are starting the push the boundaries now as well. One business that I heard had been shut down by the Gardaí have announced today that they are open for business from tomorrow. Not naming names, but they are a very well known business, particularly in Dublin.

Ah so one business in your world is plural.... there is that problem again

Plumbthedepths

The delusional attitude of some on this thread to what the austerity implications the present borrowing has on us going forward is actually amusing to read.
Magic money trees for everyone in the audience...

ElektroToad

Jim2007 wrote: »

Ah so having failed on the borrowing argument, let’s try deflect.... the reality is we can afford it, end of story.

What I'm saying is that high value exports are worth **** to the condition of the public purse in the grand scheme of things. There's no additional tax revenue to be had there.

You're adamant we won't see any taxes or cuts to public services in the years ahead as a result of this?

Interesting viewpoint. I sincerely hope you're right. But I have big doubts

Wanderer78

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

The delusional attitude of some on this thread to what the austerity implications the present borrowing has on us going forward is actually amusing to read.
Magic money trees for everyone in the audience...

funny you mention austerity

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/austerity-and-the-rise-of-the-nazi-party/7FB1BC0E727F47DC790A23D2A4B70961