Exit Strategy

Jim2007

GazzaL wrote: »

The UK have an exit strategy. They've published a plan with set milestones and dates to return to normality. You might not like it, but there's no need to tell blatant lies.

You seem to have a bit of a problem with facts! They have a proposed plan out of there lockdown not the pandemic.

Wanderer78

RGS wrote: »

That's nonsense. We have borrowed around 50 billion to paper over this covid crisis. This is on top of the billions borrowed as a result of the 2008 crash.

We have to re pay this money and we might get away without tax increases or service reductions in the October budget we wont have that luxury in october 2022.

This is not free money from the magic money tree.

oh ffs, i really wish people would actually look into how our modern monetary systems work. deficits are just the public entity of the money supply, as we have a debt based monetary system, in order to have a growing and expanding economy, we must also have a growing and expanding money supply. the two main methods we do this is by expanding the private sector entity of the system, via credit creation, and of course the public entity, i.e. deficits. but by hanging onto this accent thinking that deficits are the work of the devil, we become primarily over reliant on the private sector entity of the money supply, which tends to lead to excess credit creation, which in turn generally leads to asset bubbles such as property bubbles, and then subsequent 'credit crisis's' i.e busts! and yes, money is indeed magically created in financial institutions in both the public and private sectors, and also baring in mind, when debts are paid off, this in fact is the destruction of money itself, hence the need for new debts, ideally in both the public and private sectors, in a sustainable way.

and again, there is no need for raising taxes to do so, provided your economy can recover, so that the new debts created can be 'serviced', baring in mind, public debts can in fact be rolled over indefinitely, until fully paid, which in some cases can be multiple of decades, sometimes in excess of a century, and also barring in mind, some rates are currently negative.

ElektroToad

Jim2007 wrote: »

Here is the thing unlike the UK, Ireland is a net exporter of high valued goods for over thirty years, it one of the things that enabled us to reduce debt from 124% to 58% in line with the likes of Germany, while the UK was stuck at 84%.

So while it’s not free money, it’s not going to be a major hit either.

Ahem...most of Ireland's "high value exported goods" is most likely just derived from a couple of the big pharma companies here that have large manufacturing operations here (like Pfizer)

It doesn't mean the whole economy will keep on rocking grand. Far from it. The two-tier economy of Ireland (big MNCs vs domestic economy) will likely become even more pronounced and unbalanced than ever before

Jim2007

RGS wrote: »

That's nonsense. We have borrowed around 50 billion to paper over this covid crisis. This is on top of the billions borrowed as a result of the 2008 crash.

Except we paid it back and then some. We reduced our debt per capita from 124% at the height of the crisis down to 58%, while the was at 82% to 85% depending on which version of their figures you take, France at 105% and Germany at 58%.

Red Silurian

They say that if cases drop below 200 at the end of March they'll reopen building sites and relax the 5km restriction

Other figures that need to be taken into account before reopening

R-Number
ICU numbers
Hospital numbers
14 and 7 day new case figures (also 7 day figure should be substantially less than 14 day figure, 50% is a good target to set)

I would think to move to lv5 R needs to be below 1 for 2 weeks, no more than 60 COVID cases in ICU, hospital numbers around the 200 mark, 2,800 new cases and 1,400 new cases in the preceding 14/7 days

This was roughly the criteria for the first phase of easing of restrictions in the first wave and is probably a good model to go with as it served us well for many weeks

Jim2007

ElektroToad wrote: »

Ahem...most of Ireland's "high value exported goods" is most likely just derived from a couple of the big pharma companies here that have large manufacturing operations here (like Pfizer)

It doesn't mean the whole economy will keep on rocking grand. Far from it. The two-tier economy of Ireland (big MNCs vs domestic economy) will likely become even more pronounced and unbalanced than ever before

Ah so having failed on the borrowing argument, let’s try deflect.... the reality is we can afford it, end of story.

Jim2007

GazzaL wrote: »

Businesses are starting the push the boundaries now as well. One business that I heard had been shut down by the Gardaí have announced today that they are open for business from tomorrow. Not naming names, but they are a very well known business, particularly in Dublin.

Ah so one business in your world is plural.... there is that problem again

Plumbthedepths

The delusional attitude of some on this thread to what the austerity implications the present borrowing has on us going forward is actually amusing to read.
Magic money trees for everyone in the audience...

ElektroToad

Jim2007 wrote: »

Ah so having failed on the borrowing argument, let’s try deflect.... the reality is we can afford it, end of story.

What I'm saying is that high value exports are worth **** to the condition of the public purse in the grand scheme of things. There's no additional tax revenue to be had there.

You're adamant we won't see any taxes or cuts to public services in the years ahead as a result of this?

Interesting viewpoint. I sincerely hope you're right. But I have big doubts

Wanderer78

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

The delusional attitude of some on this thread to what the austerity implications the present borrowing has on us going forward is actually amusing to read.
Magic money trees for everyone in the audience...

funny you mention austerity

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/austerity-and-the-rise-of-the-nazi-party/7FB1BC0E727F47DC790A23D2A4B70961

Plumbthedepths

Wanderer78 wrote: »

funny you mention austerity

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/austerity-and-the-rise-of-the-nazi-party/7FB1BC0E727F47DC790A23D2A4B70961

Another fun fact , of the professional classes to join the nazi party in its early days .Doctors were the largest grouping.

Wanderer78

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Another fun fact , of the professional classes to join the nazi party in its early days .Doctors were the largest grouping.

thats interesting, but lets just ignore the facts and dangers of 'fiscal conservatism'!

Plumbthedepths

Wanderer78 wrote: »

thats interesting, but lets just ignore the facts and dangers of 'fiscal conservatism'!

I refer you to recent history , particularly the end of the first decade and early part of the second decade of this century. If you think tax raises and service cuts will not happen well super duper but I feel you're going to be terribl disappointed.Last comment on the matter.

suicide_circus

What do you get when you combine FF, FG and the HSE?

Strong governance? Strategic thinking? Inspirational leadership? Efficiency? Ambitious planning? No dithering? No self serving arse covering?


Oh, wait..no...

Coillte_Bhoy

GazzaL wrote: »

Businesses are starting the push the boundaries now as well. One business that I heard had been shut down by the Gardaí have announced today that they are open for business from tomorrow. Not naming names, but they are a very well known business, particularly in Dublin.

So who is then? Its hardly a secret if they have announced it.

GazzaL

Jim2007 wrote: »

You seem to have a bit of a problem with facts! They have a proposed plan out of there lockdown not the pandemic.

Fair play. A valiant effort to try and deflect from your blatant lies. You've already discredited yourself.

GazzaL

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

So who is then? Its hardly a secret if they have announced it.

Given the amount of headcases that would be ringing the Gardaí if I posted the name publicly on here, I'll leave it off. The Gardái could do without even more pro lockdown nutters ringing them.

ByTheSea2019

Exit strategy is based on vaccination.

The UK can have one because they know how their vaccine rollout is going, they know it is going well, they are in control of their supply and they can reasonably confidently predict what they are on course to be able to do in terms of reopening and when.

We cannot have one yet because we don't know with the same level of certainty when we will have people vaccinated. There are more issues with our supply. It would take a very naive politician to make too many promises for certain dates.

RGS

ByTheSea2019 wrote: »

Exit strategy is based on vaccination.

The UK can have one because they know how their vaccine rollout is going, they know it is going well, they are in control of their supply and they can reasonably confidently predict what they are on course to be able to do in terms of reopening and when.

We cannot have one yet because we don't know with the same level of certainty when we will have people vaccinated. There are more issues with our supply. It would take a very naive politician to make too many promises for certain dates.

That's nonsense.

A plan sets out targets and metrics that can be measured. Our alleged plan does not contain anything resembling targets.

Heres the bones of a plan:
HCWS and residential patients and over 85s vaccinated---we open click and collect services and outdoor non contact sports.

Overs 70s vaccinated ----we open outdoor dining and retail. Contact sports resume at all levels.

Overs 50s vaccinated ----we open hospitality.

Have 80% of the over 18s vaccinated--- we allow 75% capacity in sports stadium for sport and concerts.

end of the road

GazzaL wrote: »

Your whole post smacks of desperation.

The business in question has learned their lesson the first time and they will not be shut down again.

It's as clear as day that increasing numbers of people have had enough of being locked down, being talked down to, being repeatedly blamed for spreading COVID (while NPHET are apparently infallible), being unable to see family and friends, being unable to earn a living, being unable to travel further than 5km from their homes, etc.

You can't deny the will of the people. "Lockdown forever" is not, and never has been, an acceptable solution. If you want to stay in lockdown mode, nobody has a problem with that, but it's outrageous to demand everyone else gives up their lives.

desperation over what? what have i to be desperate about? the anti-facts/everything brigade have absolutely been destroyed and discredited and have lost their arguments, every time.
government don't and never will listen to them, the media and most people see them for what they are and call them out for exactly what they are.
the business can learn all the lessons it likes, but ultimately it will be shut down again, it's a question of when and not if, wouldn't be surprised if the gardai are keeping a little extra eye on the more well known businesses that they have shut already.
the only ones going on about lock down forever are the anti-everything it's all da gubament's fault brigade, the rest of us back here in the real world have always known lock down would be an option and would happen only when necessary and for as long as actually needed only.
it's perfectly reasonable to remove all non-essential stuff while covid continues to be a public health issue, and those who don't do their bit are only going to drag things out further and are not going to get what they want, all the time increasing the length of time we have to endure everything.
people like you are not going to screw this up for the rest of us, we are on the way out of this now and if we need to come down hard on some for the final push then that is what has to be done.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well the theory would be that if tens of thousands of them were doing it simultaeously it would be effectively impossible to enforce the rules.

But we know that's never going to happen anyway because SME owners are about the last section of Irish society to engage in 'civil disobedience'.

oh no i get the theory, what i'm saying is that given the situation, the government would have no option but to implement some sort of enforcement, and they would find a way to do it given the situation.
i would agree this is all unlikely to happen as most people want this to be over as soon as possible and do not want to screw things up now that we are on the way out.

ByTheSea2019

RGS wrote: »

That's nonsense.

A plan sets out targets and metrics that can be measured. Our alleged plan does not contain anything resembling targets.

Heres the bones of a plan:
HCWS and residential patients and over 85s vaccinated---we open click and collect services and outdoor non contact sports.

Overs 70s vaccinated ----we open outdoor dining and retail. Contact sports resume at all levels.

Overs 50s vaccinated ----we open hospitality.

Have 80% of the over 18s vaccinated--- we allow 75% capacity in sports stadium for sport and concerts.

No business could plan without dates for those things. We don't know as well as the UK does when our dates are.

RGS

ByTheSea2019 wrote: »

No business could plan without dates for those things. We don't know as well as the UK does when our dates are.

Perhaps you should read your original post.

First sentence: exit plan is based on vaccinations.

I put out the bones of a plan. Our government should be able to indicate within 7 days the dates when my suggested metrics should be completed. It's not that complicated, naturally you build in tolerance in case of supply delays.

I just cannot accept any argument that we are incapable of producing a plan with dates and metrics.

GazzaL

RGS wrote: »

Perhaps you should read your original post.

First sentence: exit plan is based on vaccinations.

I put out the bones of a plan. Our government should be able to indicate within 7 days the dates when my suggested metrics should be completed. It's not that complicated, naturally you build in tolerance in case of supply delays.

I just cannot accept any argument that we are incapable of producing a plan with dates and metrics.

It's pathetic to say we can't produce a plan with clear dates and metrics. It's exactly what the UK have done.

Wanderer78

GazzaL wrote: »

It's pathetic to say we can't produce a plan with clear dates and metrics. It's exactly what the UK have done.

...and looks like its going t1ts up as we speak

GazzaL

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...and looks like its going t1ts up as we speak

I expected to get a reply like this at some point, people who dismiss the idea of Ireland having any plan jumping on any slippage to the UK's plan. The UK have never said that the plan will be absolutely linear, they've allowed for flexibility to adapt as necessary. Here's a picture for you:

Wanderer78

GazzaL wrote: »

I expected to get a reply like this at some point, people who dismiss the idea of Ireland having any plan jumping on any slippage to the UK's plan. The UK have never said that the plan will be absolutely linear, they've allowed for flexibility to adapt as necessary. Here's a picture for you:

squinty eyes!

is_that_so

GazzaL wrote: »

It's pathetic to say we can't produce a plan with clear dates and metrics. It's exactly what the UK have done.

Not that we can't, that we haven't. I suspect there is one but not one they are likely to make public any time soon without some very good indicators. We're back to "the next two weeks" on that. UK's plan, despite all its promises, is really to hide all they got wrong.

Mr. Karate

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...and looks like its going t1ts up as we speak

They'd need a plan before it can go tits up.

basill

Don't worry folks. A new roadmap to be issued ahead of April 5th according to rte news. Perhaps some new levels, some nice pretty colours and another date in a few months time to undertake another review. Can't wait.

Natterjack from Kerry

ByTheSea2019 wrote: »

Exit strategy is based on vaccination.

True. And based on that, exit for Ireland can probably only really start in 2022, hopefully early in that after any surge after Christmas has been confirmed not to have happened.
There is a reluctance think that serious restrictions can last more that 3 months over the last year. Thats seems to be limit to the time frame that people will serious contemplate. But must realise with a years experience, that it has been an always rolling 3 months horizon. Realistically, it would be better that people accept now, rather than face uncertainty and rolling disappointment, that the most realistic likelyhood of serious sustained relaxations are still 10-12 months away.