Schools closed until February? (part 3)

irishblessing

meeeeh wrote: »

It says rate in Dublin is probably 1 and the rest 1.5.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/we-are-deeply-concerned-officials-report-611-new-covid-19-cases-five-further-deaths-1.4374444

But here's the important bit though, right?

Even in the capital, he sounded a note of caution over the idea that the virus was stabilising, saying: “We’ve been fooled by temporary reductions in case numbers in Dublin in the past.”
He said that if the R number remains at a level of 1.2 to 1.4, Nphet expects to see 1,100 to 1,500 cases per day by the end of the first week in November, and 350 to 450 people in hospital by that date.
“What I have to get across is the seriousness of the situation that we’re in. I’m really genuinely worried and concerned about the stage of the disease. We’re now beginning to see exponential growth, not only in the case numbers but in many of the indicators that result from the impact of the disease,” he said, adding that the projections were not inevitable if behaviours were changed, but they would become so if they did not.
“It is clear that as a country, we haven’t been doing as well in keeping up those standards of behaviour which is part of the reason we find ourselves in the challenge that we have,” he said.

Professor Philip Nolan, the chair of the Irish epidemiological modelling group, said there was “no county where the incidence is not of concern”.

So your earlier point about different county restrictions seems moot according to the professionals.

meeeeh

irishblessing wrote: »

But here's the important bit though, right?

Even in the capital, he sounded a note of caution over the idea that the virus was stabilising, saying: “We’ve been fooled by temporary reductions in case numbers in Dublin in the past.”
He said that if the R number remains at a level of 1.2 to 1.4, Nphet expects to see 1,100 to 1,500 cases per day by the end of the first week in November, and 350 to 450 people in hospital by that date.
“What I have to get across is the seriousness of the situation that we’re in. I’m really genuinely worried and concerned about the stage of the disease. We’re now beginning to see exponential growth, not only in the case numbers but in many of the indicators that result from the impact of the disease,” he said, adding that the projections were not inevitable if behaviours were changed, but they would become so if they did not.
“It is clear that as a country, we haven’t been doing as well in keeping up those standards of behaviour which is part of the reason we find ourselves in the challenge that we have,” he said.

Professor Philip Nolan, the chair of the Irish epidemiological modelling group, said there was “no county where the incidence is not of concern”.

So your earlier point about different county restrictions seems moot according to the professionals.

What are you on about? The rate in Dublin either is or it isn't one. They claim it is one, I didn't say it will not grow tomorrow and let's face it it has to be less than one because Covid patients don't die quickly. But 1 is less than it was before level 3 started in Dublin. You can't claim Dublin restrictions are not working because covid is increasing outside of Dublin. They might not be working fast enough.

2ndcoming

It's incredibly on brand for Dept of Education to have no decision or guidance to offer on the mid-term situation. "sUre hoW coUld wE kNow ThaT, iT's stILl tWo wEekS awaY!?"

It seems an incredibly obvious choice to get kids and teachers back in the online mindset for a week in case it is needed for an extended spell around Christmas / Jan. If nothing else so it's less of a disruption if and when it is needed again.

Given their title it's highly ironic how staunchly they refuse to learn.

wirelessdude01

We have a class out at the moment due to a confirmed case. All told to stay at home on Sunday night and only last night were parents contacted with test appointment. Sitting at home all week waiting and worrying. Some with slight symptoms, some with none at all.

Most families kept siblings off this week as well as a precaution. We've been running an absence rate from the school building of approx 34% this week.

Smacruairi

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

We have a class out at the moment due to a confirmed case. All told to stay at home on Sunday night and only last night were parents contacted with test appointment. Sitting at home all week waiting and worrying. Some with slight symptoms, some with none at all.

Most families kept siblings off this week as well as a precaution. We've been running an absence rate from the school building of approx 34% this week.

Jaysus that's tough. Is it me or did things really ramp up this week?

Birdy

2ndcoming wrote: »

It's incredibly on brand for Dept of Education to have no decision or guidance to offer on the mid-term situation. "sUre hoW coUld wE kNow ThaT, iT's stILl tWo wEekS awaY!?"

It seems an incredibly obvious choice to get kids and teachers back in the online mindset for a week in case it is needed for an extended spell around Christmas / Jan. If nothing else so it's less of a disruption if and when it is needed again.

Given their title it's highly ironic how staunchly they refuse to learn.

Most schools are way ahead of the Department and know better than to wait for guidance from them.

These schools are using online platforms for homework in case a class is sent home for 2 weeks or they are shut again for an extended period.

It won't stop parents whinging though that they have to mind their kids.

average_runner

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

If a teacher can do at home, what they can do at school from a remote teaching point of view, what is the reason behind them having to go in?

I know myself that my broadband connection is better here than at school.

Yeah do it at home also.

DSN

Birdy wrote: »

Most schools are way ahead of the Department and know better than to wait for guidance from them.

These schools are using online platforms for homework in case a class is sent home for 2 weeks or they are shut again for an extended period.

It won't stop parents whinging though that they have to mind their kids.[/QUOTE

Our primary just given us a login for seesaw. That's it sofar so doesn't bode well for future remote. Though I do feel angry at dep of ed now sayings 'schools to be prepared' then little to no guidance or resource given to them by sounds of it
Wondering are parents expected to have laptops for all?

...Ghost...

JimmyVik wrote: »

Last year a friend of mine who is a teacher asked me if i could do anything with the shared laptop that she took home that day as it was so slow.
It was a Dell Inspiron from the year 2003, running windows xp. And all locked up with passwords and bloatware by another teacher who was their sys admin, after a 3 day computer course.

I told her to throw it in the bin.

She said they had 5 of these laptops between 20 teachers.
I have no faith in the school IT systems No investment put into them, ever.

I already mentioned a few pages back that my OH purchased a Surface Pro before returning to work. This was to allow her to be more efficient with her time, as it can take 10-20 minutes to log onto the school PCs. Well, the equipment is so unreliable, that it often won't accept a connection from the Surface Pro.

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

If a teacher can do at home, what they can do at school from a remote teaching point of view, what is the reason behind them having to go in?

I know myself that my broadband connection is better here than at school.

Some people think the teachers have to be in the building, or they will be skiving off. Newsflash, the lazy ones are lazy in or out of class.

kowloonkev

2ndcoming wrote: »

It's incredibly on brand for Dept of Education to have no decision or guidance to offer on the mid-term situation. "sUre hoW coUld wE kNow ThaT, iT's stILl tWo wEekS awaY!?"

It seems an incredibly obvious choice to get kids and teachers back in the online mindset for a week in case it is needed for an extended spell around Christmas / Jan. If nothing else so it's less of a disruption if and when it is needed again.

Given their title it's highly ironic how staunchly they refuse to learn.

They are obviously living in a sort of Narnia and all of their buildings located there too since shoving 30 odd unmasked children in classrooms throughout the country doesn't spread the virus. We should all move into the schools and we'll be virus free in 14 days thanks to the wonderful, magical Department of Education.

pwurple

mvl wrote: »

- well, in case you think I was giving out to the school, you are very wrong.

Some ppl here want to paint a picture that without the school opened as it is, parents would be lost. I disagree with this, as a poster here who happens to also be a 9-6 working professional that has to do all school runs.
It doesn't work better, while the secondary school we're attending doesn't keep the school open for the after-school activities, so as is, I have to interrupt my work schedule to support what is going on. I can see how collecting at 15h works for ppl who are on reduced hours themselves or don't work at all - I am a 9-6 worker, and this sucks for me.
I also understand why the school doesn't keep things open longer.

But my child would be a perfect candidate for blended learning -and I think having reduced hours in school would work better for both of us these days anyway.

This is a sad tale. You're doing what nobody should be doing in the first place, driving around to ferry children to and from school. They should be able to walk, cycle or use public transport.

You want the whole country to go back to children at risk of missing out on social services, meals, missing special needs teachers, missing all the other services physical schools provide because you can't reschedule a meeting and made some poor location choices

pwurple

kowloonkev wrote: »

They are obviously living in a sort of Narnia and all of their buildings located there too since shoving 30 odd unmasked children in classrooms throughout the country doesn't spread the virus. We should all move into the schools and we'll be virus free in 14 days thanks to the wonderful, magical Department of Education.

Did you know that you can view aggregated mobile phone data online. Data that shows the distances people travel , how they congregate, where they congregate. All those patterns. It's very interesting.

And then on top, they can overlay virus clusters.

The clusters have been originating in pubs, restaurants and private homes, overwhelmingly.


Mixing with the same group of people every day is lower risk than mixing with a bunch of different strangers every day. That was the assumption, and it has been borne out.

Simply put, that's why schools are open and pubs are closed.

irishblessing

pwurple wrote: »

This is a sad tale. You're doing what nobody should be doing in the first place, driving around to ferry children to and from school. They should be able to walk, cycle or use public transport.

You want the whole country to go back to children at risk of missing out on social services, meals, missing special needs teachers, missing all the other services physical schools provide because you can't reschedule a meeting and made some poor location choices

Judgemental much? Jesus. First of all, no one saw this virus coming. So attacking people for their decisions of where to buy or build their homes for their own valid, personal reasons is ridiculous of the highest order.

No one "wants the whole country to go back" to experience more of the same negative outcomes. That's just rude. Reality is what we're faced with so it is what it is and we have to do our best with the sh!t circumstances we're all in. Furthermore, everyone is entitled to a moan and to talk about their feelings and hardships. Who do you think you are speaking to anyone in that manner.

MOH

pwurple wrote: »

Did you know that you can view aggregated mobile phone data online. Data that shows the distances people travel , how they congregate, where they congregate. All those patterns. It's very interesting.

And then on top, they can overlay virus clusters.

The clusters have been originating in pubs, restaurants and private homes, overwhelmingly.


Mixing with the same group of people every day is lower risk than mixing with a bunch of different strangers every day. That was the assumption, and it has been borne out.

Simply put, that's why schools are open and pubs are closed.

Do you have a source for that? If you do you should send it on to the HSE, because they don't seem to be aware of it.

As of the most recent cluster report up to last Saturday, there have been a total of 10 clusters traced to pubs (out of 4443) versus 48 in schools. And 3199 in private homes. So that doesn't really bear out your statement.

mvl

pwurple wrote: »

You want the whole country to go back to children at risk of missing out on social services, meals, missing special needs teachers, missing all the other services physical schools provide because you can't reschedule a meeting and made some poor location choices

This is not what was said.

pwurple wrote: »

You want the whole country to go back to children at risk of missing out on social services, meals, missing special needs teachers, missing all the other services physical schools provide because you can't reschedule a meeting and made some poor location choices

and plse don't make assumptions about my role neither. many workplaces connected internationally would be peak busy in the afternoon- if yours would be too, maybe you'd laugh at your own point about rescheduling meetings.

PS: 5km away from school. I drive rather than use common transport as this is what all sensible parents are meant to do now.

irishblessing

pwurple wrote: »

Did you know that you can view aggregated mobile phone data online. Data that shows the distances people travel , how they congregate, where they congregate. All those patterns. It's very interesting.

And then on top, they can overlay virus clusters.

The clusters have been originating in pubs, restaurants and private homes, overwhelmingly.

Simply put, that's why schools are open and pubs are closed.

I'm looking at the most recent epidemiology data and I don't see that statement borne out of the report.

Loafing Oaf

irishblessing wrote: »

I'm looking at the most recent epidemiology data and I don't see that statement borne out of the report.

Breda O'Brien setting out the evidence to the contrary here:
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/breda-o-brien-what-if-children-are-a-key-source-of-covid-spread-1.4375795

Schools and creches are going to remain open even at the highest level of the Living with Covid-19 plan. But is this logical, or in tune with the latest research?...
the two biggest studies to date from South Korea and India, both of which found that children transmit the disease either at the same rate or higher rates than adults.

wirelessdude01

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Breda O'Brien setting out the evidence to the contrary here:
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/breda-o-brien-what-if-children-are-a-key-source-of-covid-spread-1.4375795

Came in to post the very same article. Points out that the HSE are only using evidence from Europe which neatly bypasses the two biggest studies around children which happen to come from South Korea and India which also have far superior track and tracing systems.

irishblessing

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Came in to post the very same article. Points out that the HSE are only using evidence from Europe which neatly bypasses the two biggest studies around children which happen to come from South Korea and India which also have far superior track and tracing systems.

Great article! Very informative and asks some great questions.

We're finally getting there... :rolleyes:

Industrial action
The teacher’s union ASTI is due to ballot on industrial action. Aside from unequal pay, the other motions stem from anxieties either about the safety of schools or unfair work practices that are being imposed under the cover of Covid-19.

Teachers’ concerns could be assuaged if they were given more access to PPE and reassured that schools would not be forced to stay open no matter what toll it takes on the health or even mortality of staff and students.

Teachers, parents and students’ concerns could be assuaged if contingency plans were in place to ensure that online education is not crippled by lack of broadband and appropriate technology.

Anyone know where the INTO is coming down?

Icyseanfitz

Think im about ready to just bury my head fully in the sand, maybe the few of us that believe schools are currently dangerous are just wrong, i can't reconcile my sense of logic with that but everything i see and hear from the general public, government, media and school management, is that everything is perfectly safe and schools are doing fantastic. I can't understand what makes schools (the single most closely populated place of work with threadbare safety measures in place) any different from any other place where people work at the moment but no one seems to care.

I just hope my students with medical and additional needs will be safe, and that i don't bring covid back to my immune comprised wife or father.

wirelessdude01

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Came in to post the very same article. Points out that the HSE are only using evidence from Europe which neatly bypasses the two biggest studies around children which happen to come from South Korea and India which also have far superior track and tracing systems.

Not one to usually play the man not the ball, however any article on topic ever written by that Iona institute loon leaves me instinctively supporting the opposing view

meeeeh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not one to usually play the man not the ball, however any article on topic ever written by that Iona institute loon leaves me instinctively supporting the opposing view

I found it entertaining how her credibility increased beyond the group of anti abortion loons. In fairness I think she is or was a teacher so her perspective in that regard is valid.

I will say however that two siblings or friends in one school can test positive but that doesn't mean transmission happened in school. Further investigation would be checking if they were both at GAA celebrations where I'm sure they were all social distancing. I don't know what she finds confusing about HSE saying further investigation might be needed.

wirelessdude01

Deleted User wrote: »

Not one to usually play the man not the ball, however any article on topic ever written by that Iona institute loon leaves me instinctively supporting the opposing view

I'm usually the same.

meeeeh

Anyway she is good bit easier to digest than her predecessor John Walters.

Loafing Oaf

meeeeh wrote: »

I found it entertaining how her credibility increased beyond the group of anti abortion loons. In fairness I think she is or was a teacher so her perspective in that regard is valid.

Yes, can't see that she would have any agenda here other than what she perceives to be the best interests of pupils and teachers and their families. If anything, 'conservative Catholics' are generally in favour of loosening restrictions around covid.

ginoginelli

I think the game is up now. The charade that schools are safe is slowly dawning on the public.

Aersol spread is now officially acccepted mode of transmission.

And in the largest studies yet kids have been shown to spread as easily as adults.

I dont see how schools, under the current plan, can continue to operate now.

Scoondal

Deleted User wrote: »

Not one to usually play the man not the ball, however any article on topic ever written by that Iona institute loon leaves me instinctively supporting the opposing view

The opinion of the Iona Institute is equally of value with your own opinion. I think you are open to debate about opinions. That is how a civilised society operates.

Smacruairi

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The 14 day case rate has grown 2% in the past 7 days, and has fallen 5% in the last 3days. Looks like a peak to me

1000 cases today.

combat14

Smacruairi wrote: »

1000 cases today.

almost 2000 cases north and south on island..

and winter hasn't even started properly yet ..

it has to be the schools we were grand all summer.......

Smacruairi

combat14 wrote: »

almost 2000 cases north and south on island..

and winter hasn't even started properly yet ..

it has to be the schools we were grand all summer.......

The level 3.5 restrictions have slowed the increase, not stopped it, that's what I'm worried about. Restrictions are meant to reduce numbers, that's not happening.