Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

breezy1985 wrote: »

Some of those British enclaves are so big that the foreigners are getting their candidates elected as mayor's a d the like ahead of local candidates

In the interests of balance the word "enclave" has negative connotations, but it's not always a negative on the ground. There are many French villages and hamlets (especially in the Dordogne) that are almost entirely populated year round by British immigrants. The French choose not to live in these places - at most, they come back to the ancestral home once or twice a year for some kind of get-together, then board it up again and take their money and their children back to the cities.

Were it not for the year-round British residents spending their money in local businesses, putting their children into the local schools, and maintaining the physical integrity of buildings and roads, much of this French patrimoine would be bought up by the Russian and Chinese speculators who are present and active in the countryside. As of January 2020, those British (no longer EU) were excluded from the local council elections despite years of constructive participation.

yagan

CelticRambler wrote: »

As of January 2020, those British (no longer EU) were excluded from the local council elections despite years of constructive participation.

If they've years of construction investment in France then why had they not become French?

Many don't have any interest in France, they just want a sunnier England, which is why the biggest concentration of Brits abroad is in Australia.

CelticRambler

yagan wrote: »

If they've years of construction investment in France then why had they not become French?

Probably the same reason as me - I'm a citizen of an EU state and enjoy all the same rights as a native (other than voting in national and presidential elections).

Many of them are now seeking French nationality, but that's a long drawn-out process; some of them will be dead before they get their face-to-face interview to see how well they speak the language.

yagan

CelticRambler wrote: »

Probably the same reason as me - I'm a citizen of an EU state and enjoy all the same rights as a native (other than voting in national and presidential elections).

Many of them are now seeking French nationality, but that's a long drawn-out process; some of them will be dead before they get their face-to-face interview to see how well they speak the language.

They've had four years since the vote. I know loads of eligible Brit's living in Ireland who sent in their passport application the week after the vote!
(I'm talking about Brits eligible by established residency, not by grandparent.)

CelticRambler

yagan wrote: »

They've had four years since the vote. I know loads of eligible Brit's living in Ireland who sent in their passport application the week after the vote!

Ireland isn't France. :rolleyes:

On the grounds of having been a full-time primary and secondary school student in France, my son is automatically entitled to French citizenship without further justification. He's five years into the process ...

Alun

yagan wrote: »

They've had four years since the vote. I know loads of eligible Brit's living in Ireland who sent in their passport application the week after the vote!
(I'm talking about Brits eligible by established residency, not by grandparent.)

If they applied for Irish citizenship by virtue of residency, then I'm afraid it's a lot more than just sending in a passport application form. The whole process from beginning to end takes nigh on a year (possibly more now), involves filling in a 36 page application form, supplying reams of supporting paperwork and also involves sending in your existing passport with no guarantee when you'll get it back. Just to get your application in costs €175, if you're successful that's another €950 on top of that to get your citizenship, and then and only then can you apply for a passport.

joeysoap

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, if the property was purchased, say, in 2015 for €100,000, it would have cost GBP 75,000. If it was sold now for €150,000, it would attract, say 30% of €50,000 which is €15,000, so net €135,000. Convert back to GBP is £122,850 @ 0.91p. So still more ££££s than invested despite the CGT.

Now whether that buys a property in the UK is another matter.

I have a friend from NI who purchased a property in Portugal when the £ was particularly strong. Paid €160k for it but it only cost him £104k at the time of purchase. Sold it foo for just over €210k last year, and made a profit on converting back to £ as the € was much stronger than when he bought. The Uk was in the EU when he sold of course ( not sure if NI continues as EU member for property abroad purposes) and the way it worked was €210k minus 10% which the Portuguese ‘ allow’’ for contents. So €189k less purchase price of €160k. Less buying costs stamp duty, solicitors etc. less selling costs estate agent, solicitors etc. net profit taxed at 28%. He received £11,000 British capital gains tax on return to NI so no additional tax to pay there ( he would here ). That was in 2019.

Igotadose

Alun wrote: »

If they applied for Irish citizenship by virtue of residency, then I'm afraid it's a lot more than just sending in a passport application form. The whole process from beginning to end takes nigh on a year (possibly more now), involves filling in a 36 page application form, supplying reams of supporting paperwork and also involves sending in your existing passport with no guarantee when you'll get it back. Just to get your application in costs €175, if you're successful that's another €950 on top of that to get your citizenship, and then and only then can you apply for a passport.

Most of us would jump for joy if it were only a year. My application (via marriage) has been in for more than 2 years now. I did get my passport back after 6 weeks, they're good about getting the passports back, they want to be able to eject people after all

Munstergirl854

What will this mean for the value of sterling?Is it set to rise in the coming weeks?

Seth Brundle

Munstergirl854 wrote: »

What will this mean for the value of sterling?Is it set to rise in the coming weeks?

Since the agreement, sterling has gained strength.
In the last month it was as low as 1.085 against the Euro. Currently it is at 1.11 to the Euro...
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/data/currencies/gbp-pairs/GBPEUR-exchange-rate

However, come the New Year and financial services staff are twiddling their thumbs, expect the markets to react.

listermint

Munstergirl854 wrote: »

What will this mean for the value of sterling?Is it set to rise in the coming weeks?

On what basis would it should it rise

listermint

listermint wrote: »

On what basis would it should it rise

The end of uncertainty means a lot to businesss, good, bad or indifferent, it really doesn't matter that much as having a clearer view to the future that the deal provides.

moon2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The end of uncertainty means a lot to businesss, good, bad or indifferent, it really doesn't matter that much as having a clearer view to the future that the deal provides.

Uncertainty leads to volatility. Assuming everything is ratified the UK will reduce uncertainty which will reduce volatility. Will GBP rise back to its previous levels? Well, in a word: no. Could it increase from its current levels? Yes - if the new multi-billion dollar trade expenses they will now incur don't meaningfully impact trade and prosperity!

How am I pretty sure it won't regain it's previous value? From the analyses of the agreement it looks like the UK is in the same, or worse, position in nearly every sector.

Sam Russell

Sterling is at 91.3p at the moment, losing value since the agreement was announced - it was 90p.

It has been volatile over the last month - within a narrow band. 89p a month ago and as high as 92p.

HalfAndHalf

Sam Russell wrote: »

Sterling is at 91.3p at the moment, losing value since the agreement was announced - it was 90p.

It has been volatile over the last month - within a narrow band. 89p a month ago and as high as 92p.

Sterling is at 89.9p and has been since 13:00 on the 24th when markets closed. I said this before. I’d suggest using a different source for financials as yours isn’t correct.

Sam Russell

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Sterling is at 89.9p and has been since 13:00 on the 24th when markets closed. I said this before. I’d suggest using a different source for financials as yours isn’t correct.

I use xe.com which appears OK to me, but what would I know? Not all markets closed on the 24 th.

HalfAndHalf

Sam Russell wrote: »

I use xe.com which appears OK to me, but what would I know? Not all markets closed on the 24 th.

XE.com constantly moves while markets are closed, it’s poor.

Use transferwise or Revolut these are the most up to date mid-market prices, and these have remained static since Xmas eve. I don’t think much gbp/eur trading goes on on forex while main markets are closed.

Jizique

CelticRambler wrote: »

Link to the publication referred to in that tweet.

After a quick persual, I'm pleased to see that they've come to much the same conclusion as I did - much more of a Switzerland-minus deal than Canada-plus, an overall very favourable to the EU.

EU controls come into effect on Jan 1st; UK controls come into effect on ... ehhh ... soon ... ish ... [checks staff recruitment] [checks progress on building works] [looks for relevant software icon on Windows 95 desktop] ... in due course.

EU gets to cancel some unilateral contingency measures (e.g. for hauliers) and has a better defined date by which others need to be superseded. In the meantime, UK is kept aligned indefinitely with EU regs and standards, especially in respect of workers' rights and environmental protection, which effectively excludes them from operating as a back door for US agricultural produce or cheap Asian imports.

UK finally gets permission to talk to individual states about reciprocal arrangements, ensuring that UK-in-EU service providers now need to work with 27 different sets of rules, not all of which are compatible with each other, and most of which require separate registration in each individual member state.

All-in-all, a lot of cherry picking by the EU in exchange for a few tonnes of fish. Great job, Michel! Enjoy your retirement.

Yes, interesting on rules of origin, where they thought they could emerge as a workshop screwing Asian batteries onto cars and flood the EU market, but all batteries will need to be EU produced from 2026

Sam Russell

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

XE.com constantly moves while markets are closed, it’s poor.

Use transferwise or Revolut these are the most up to date mid-market prices, and these have remained static since Xmas eve. I don’t think much gbp/eur trading goes on on forex while main markets are closed.

I only use xe.com as an indicator - I do not use foreign exchange at all.

MrMusician18

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

XE.com constantly moves while markets are closed, it’s poor.

Use transferwise or Revolut these are the most up to date mid-market prices, and these have remained static since Xmas eve. I don’t think much gbp/eur trading goes on on forex while main markets are closed.

Pretty sure that the currency markets are always open, somewhere.

That's the reason why the close price on the main markets on a Friday is different from the opening price on a Monday. It would be foolish to look too much into the prices over Christmas though as the volume is very small relatively speaking

MrMusician18

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Pretty sure that the currency markets are always open, somewhere.

That's the reason why the close price on the main markets on a Friday is different from the opening price on a Monday. It would be foolish to look too much into the prices over Christmas though as the volume is very small relatively speaking

Right now, the trade is probably limited to xmas money being sent "home" by people working in the UK.

Enzokk

Taking back control from Brussels and handing it to the newly formed Partnership Council that will meet 50% of the time in Brussels and will make decisions that the UK Parliament will only be informed and apply to the UK.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343216520239968258?s=20

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343219845702299659?s=20

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343224452553834496?s=20

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343226598284275714?s=20

So they have left the UK to now have something similar to the EU that will leave the UK Parliament in the same position as before.

strandroad

What does this deal mean for retailers such as TK Maxx, Currys etc? They are only Irish appendages to a UK HQs; what they sell is not manufactured in UK. Can they continue trading?

schmoo2k

Enzokk wrote: »

Taking back control from Brussels and handing it to the newly formed Partnership Council that will meet 50% of the time in Brussels and will make decisions that the UK Parliament will only be informed and apply to the UK.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343216520239968258?s=20

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343219845702299659?s=20

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343224452553834496?s=20

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343226598284275714?s=20

So they have left the UK to now have something similar to the EU that will leave the UK Parliament in the same position as before.

But its only in relation to the trade agreement, which is a small part of the overall legal and standards rules that the UK had to follow previously?

yagan

Alun wrote: »

If they applied for Irish citizenship by virtue of residency, then I'm afraid it's a lot more than just sending in a passport application form. The whole process from beginning to end takes nigh on a year (possibly more now), involves filling in a 36 page application form, supplying reams of supporting paperwork and also involves sending in your existing passport with no guarantee when you'll get it back. Just to get your application in costs €175, if you're successful that's another €950 on top of that to get your citizenship, and then and only then can you apply for a passport.

Which part of "eligible Brit's living in Ireland" confused you?

Plus why do you think it should be free?

An Ciarraioch

schmoo2k wrote: »

But its only in relation to the trade agreement, which is a small part of the overall legal and standards rules that the UK had to follow previously?

Standards are still essentially linked to the level playing field, except now the new Partnership Council determines the level of deviation permitted.

yagan

Deleted User wrote: »

The end of uncertainty means a lot to businesss, good, bad or indifferent, it really doesn't matter that much as having a clearer view to the future that the deal provides.

A lot of USA responses seem to suggest they see little upside for the UK in the deal, so I can see the GBP losing its legacy lustre from here on in.

BlitzKrieg

schmoo2k wrote: »

But its only in relation to the trade agreement, which is a small part of the overall legal and standards rules that the UK had to follow previously?

Yes its predominantly only the trade agreement, but as Boris likes to emphasis, "It is the most extensive and broad trade agreement in history"

Look at all the councils they're forming

https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/1342898562078793728


And some of the crucial areas they've not covered like Services are still being negotiated, so expect them to join here too.

And there are the areas like fishing which have their own mini council seperately that will meet every 5 years.

Also any EU programmes the UK opts into (which they have) fall fully under EU control (including the ECJ)


which goes back to my very first gut reaction

This is a can kick

Everything that is changing for the UK came in the withdrawel agreement (end of FOM, customs union, single market and border on the irish sea) this agreement is basically an extension of the transition on everything else by a very complicated process of them continuing to debate and argue in a little mini council of ministers.

Dont be surprised if the cost on the UK (and the EU) for upkeeping these councils, not to mention moving it between brussels and london 50% of the time will be as much if not a bigger gravy train for British ministers then the EU was.

Only this time they got to get elected in national politics so riff raff like farage are kept out

Capt'n Midnight

It's not cheap or easy to get UK citizenship or even the right to remain.
https://www.britishcitizenship.org/british-citizenship-fee/

Take Ethan. He is a Canadian national who met his British wife Eva on the internet. They were married in Canada a few weeks ago and he would now like to join Eva in the UK. It will cost Ethan a total of at least £8,475 to enter the UK, apply for his extension as a spouse, apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) and finally British citizenship.

An Ciarraioch

A thread from a professor on the proposed Turing scheme - basically, he thinks it'll be difficult to establish, the costs for incoming students would be unenticing, and that there would be much bureaucracy in trying to build links with non-European universities:

https://twitter.com/Cardwell_PJ/status/1342917640797483008