Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Capt'n Midnight

schmoo2k wrote: »

What referendum (Ireland leaving the EU)?

We had two by proxy in 2019 and one in 2020.

Despite having international journalists and people with political experience in other parties, no Irish Freedom Party candidates got more than 1.5% in the EU elections, the Irish general election or in the UK general election.


But the Express said Italy, Denmark and the Netherlands will be leaving any day now, any day now. By accident or if there is a major economic upset in the future. So something worse than Covid.

mrunsure

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

We had two by proxy in 2019 and one in 2020.

Despite having international journalists and people with political experience in other parties, no Irish Freedom Party candidates got more than 1.5% in the EU elections, the Irish general election or in the UK general election.


But the Express said Italy, Denmark and the Netherlands will be leaving any day now, any day now. By accident or if there is a major economic upset in the future. So something worse than Covid.

I assume Brexit has galvanised the rest of the EU to realise that they have got it good and helped to reduce Euroscepticism. I wonder if opinion polls bear that out? Shame the Remainers in the UK had to be sacrificed for the common good.

Lumen

CelticRambler wrote: »

Recent history (despite wage rises) suggest that the English will not do the work. All the jobs data and employers' reports carry the same info - jobs in manual labour sector (hospitality, fruit&veg picking, meat processing, non-nursing carers in hospitals and care homes, etc) do not attract English applicants, and of those who do turn up for a first week's work, very very very few come back for second week.

What's going to change that?

Swingeing benefit cuts using recession book balancing as an excuse. Same Tories different day.

Professor Moriarty

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

We had two by proxy in 2019 and one in 2020.

Despite having international journalists and people with political experience in other parties, no Irish Freedom Party candidates got more than 1.5% in the EU elections, the Irish general election or in the UK general election.


But the Express said Italy, Denmark and the Netherlands will be leaving any day now, any day now. By accident or if there is a major economic upset in the future. So something worse than Covid.

Favourable opinion of EU: Italy 58%, Denmark 70%, Netherlands 66%. As the observable Brexit negatives kick in for the UK, expect these ratings to increase.

breezy1985

CelticRambler wrote: »

Recent history (despite wage rises) suggest that the English will not do the work. All the jobs data and employers' reports carry the same info - jobs in manual labour sector (hospitality, fruit&veg picking, meat processing, non-nursing carers in hospitals and care homes, etc) do not attract English applicants, and of those who do turn up for a first week's work, very very very few come back for second week.

What's going to change that?

Yep and this isn't a dig at the English as it happens in many countries but the natives are incredibly unreliable in hospitality.

A wage rise might help but more likely the UK will see a huge fall in standards

breezy1985

mrunsure wrote: »

I assume Brexit has galvanised the rest of the EU to realise that they have got it good and helped to reduce Euroscepticism. I wonder if opinion polls bear that out? Shame the Remainers in the UK had to be sacrificed for the common good.

The French fascists have changed from union exit to monetary exit and same for Italy

Detritus70

breezy1985 wrote: »

The French fascists have changed from union exit to monetary exit and same for Italy

Always the same old song.
It roughly goes like "we are sh*t at business, let's just devalue".
International business for people who know nothing about business.

Enzokk

As I posted a few days ago, you are going to get a lot of different opinions on what the deal means. From the UK winning and the break-up of the EU now back on the table to the UK having their pants pulled down and taken advantage of. I haven't yet seen any of those people that I trust to study the deal and make an unbiased appraisal on it. Just like it took time for the WA to be digested, at I believe around 550 pages, it will take time to get to terms what the UK has actually agreed to. Seeing that they only gave themselves one day to debate it in Parliament, it doesn't matter what comes out. Labour will support it because it is better than no-deal and Johnson will whip enough of his own MP's to get it through.

I will not try to understand 1200 pages of very legalese text that is only going to confuse me. I will wait for those on here and in the media to spell out exactly what was agreed. I suggest those that think this is a game to win to do the same. I doubt they will take my advice though.

BlitzKrieg

I think this is a good diagram of how much things have simply not changed for the UK in terms of their percieved freedom

https://twitter.com/AntonSpisak/status/1342898562078793728

Those are all the new EU-UK councils that have formed as part of this deal.

Essentially they are mimicking the council of ministers that already exists in the EU

The UK basically has got tied up in the part of the EU that is nothing but red tape and walked away from the part that gave them actually veto power (The European Council) or legislation power (the commission) or power directly representing the people (parliament)

but the part they hate the most, the part that is all red tape where all those legislation become overly complicated

Thats the part they get to keep

bobbyss

I wonder how many of our politicians will read the 1200 pages of this agreement?

breezy1985

bobbyss wrote: »

I wonder how many of our politicians will read the 1200 pages of this agreement?

Given that you get NI secretaries who don't read the GFA or don't even know where Belfast is on a map I wouldn't hold my breath

BonnieSituation

salonfire wrote: »

The irony.

On the 13th iteration of a thread where a country shot itself in the foot as a result of an ideological referendum, we should be talking about having a referendum which will be campaigned on ideology and if passed will set us back years with garda killer apologists being Kingmaker. US multinationals would love that.

Right, I should temper my aspirations and wishes because of American multinationals? What nonsense.

Nody

bobbyss wrote: »

I wonder how many of our politicians will read the 1200 pages of this agreement?

I'd expect none; they are usually not trained lawyers and the civil service and experts should easily be able to provide a summary of all relevant points in each section and answer questions as needed.

Sam Russell

breezy1985 wrote: »

Given that you get NI secretaries who don't read the GFA or don't even know where Belfast is on a map I wouldn't hold my breath

It was Raab as Brexit Secretary at the time when the GFA was central. He also did not know much the Dover Calais was central to freight traffic for the UK.

There were plenty of NI Secretaries who did not know anything about NI when appointed. Few Cabinet Ministers could draw the border for NI.

Nody

Enzokk wrote: »

I will not try to understand 1200 pages of very legalese text that is only going to confuse me. I will wait for those on here and in the media to spell out exactly what was agreed. I suggest those that think this is a game to win to do the same. I doubt they will take my advice though.

Some confirmed points which goes (to no surprise to anyone) against Boris and his government's claims:

* Financial services – with future rules “still to be established”, a government source admitted, despite the sector employing more than 1 million people, paying more than £75bn in tax.

* Professional qualifications in services jobs – with nothing agreed on their recognition in the EU, despite the UK enjoying a huge surplus in such exports.

* No agreement to allow the government to return asylum seekers to EU countries with the expiry of the Dublin Regulation – despite Priti Patel’s vow that it would be easier after Brexit.

* No data sharing deal for the UK chemicals industry – landing it with a £1bn bill to build its own database of approved products – with the level of cooperation with the EU undecided.

* The food industry protested at the absence of an “equivalence” agreement – which left New Zealand with a closer deal, requiring fewer checks and less paperwork.

a former national security adviser warned the sharing of vital crime-fighting data would be “slower and more clunky” under the deal.

All taken from this article. Personally if this is the definition of winning according to UK government and Brexiteers then I wish EU to strike many more deals with the UK in the future...

yagan

The only winners are those Brits who do not want tax transparency. They care not if British subjects huddle around the increasing number of food banks.

In the preamble to the first census after An t-Ár Mór...

“…we feel it will be gratifying to your Excellency to find that although the population has been diminished in so remarkable a manner by famine, disease and emigration between 1841 and 1851, and has been since decreasing, the results of the Irish census of 1851 are, on the whole, satisfactory, demonstrating as they do the general advancement of the country. “

The only advancement the main backers of Brexit wanted to advance was their tax havens offshore, and now domestically. They don't care how much poorer and vulnerable the average Brit becomes.

BonnieSituation

eire4 wrote: »

I will be voting yes when that time comes. Makes sense for us to have everything working on the same basis throughout the country. Will be better for everyone in the long run IMHO.

Of course. I'm firmly in the pro-UI column.

The poster I was responding to was bringing up some of the usual nonsense that Partitionists like to throw out about a UI and their history on here shows clearly that they live in that politically astute end of the spectrum that favours contrarianism and right-wing tropes over discussion and debate.

sam1986uk

Has anyone considered the EU immigration implications for Ireland?

Since 2004 the UK has been the number 1 destination for so many Eastern and Central Europeans because it's an Engish speaking country, a wealthy economy with relatively high wages and benefits. Everyone learns English now. Not German, or French.

We're going to get absolutely battered now.

breezy1985

sam1986uk wrote: »

Has anyone considered the EU immigration implications for Ireland?

Since 2004 the UK has been the number 1 destination for so many Eastern and Central Europeans because it's an Engish speaking country, a wealthy economy with relatively high wages and benefits. Everyone learns English now. Not German, or French.

We're going to get absolutely battered now.

Immigration booms usually need a country with a healthy surplus of jobs which Ireland does not have.


If we do have the jobs to offer then I welcome the EU immigrants as immigrants for the mast part are a net plus for the economy and not something you get "battered" with

Jizique

sam1986uk wrote: »

Has anyone considered the EU immigration implications for Ireland?

Since 2004 the UK has been the number 1 destination for so many Eastern and Central Europeans because it's an Engish speaking country, a wealthy economy with relatively high wages and benefits. Everyone learns English now. Not German, or French.

We're going to get absolutely battered now.

The immigration that is battering us is not necessarily from the EU; application of rules on entitlements including extremely expensive housing would also help us

Strazdas

sam1986uk wrote: »

Has anyone considered the EU immigration implications for Ireland?

Since 2004 the UK has been the number 1 destination for so many Eastern and Central Europeans because it's an Engish speaking country, a wealthy economy with relatively high wages and benefits. Everyone learns English now. Not German, or French.

We're going to get absolutely battered now.

You speak as if EU citizens coming to work and pay taxes in Ireland would be a bad thing and a negative. What is your evidence for this?

Choosehowevr.

The UK is a Mecca for migrants notwithstanding Ireland's generous welfare system

Jizique

bobbyss wrote: »

I wonder how many of our politicians will read the 1200 pages of this agreement?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThimontJack/status/1342957701798776832
Institute for Govt analysis out;

Some good names there that are worth following if really interested (plus David Henig, David Allen Green)

Lumen

Choosehowevr. wrote: »

Isn't that what the EU is for , movement of workers as needed

It creates problems in an EU which isn't fully integrated. Specifically, in the 2000s we had national banks backing a construction boom financed with multi-decade debt to satisfy short term movement of labour. When that tide went out we were left with 100% more debt/GDP and a load of badly built houses.

That wasn't the fault of the EU but the mismatch in duration between the rapid movement of people and the infrastructure required to support them is challenging.

Had it not been for further inward investment driven by multinational tax avoision we'd still be completely screwed.

In the most recent decade tighter regulation of banks has forced the capital to bypass them and go through non-bank property funds, which at least keeps the taxpayer off the hook for all the recent Dublin office development, but we've endured amongst the highest housing costs in the EU to go with our multinational job creation.

Can you imagine what we'd be facing right now without all those WFH jobs sustaining the public finances through COVID, if our economy was relying on travel and tourism?

Ireland’s Covid-hit economy boosted by multinational corporations
https://www.ft.com/content/2a23d1a5-d8c4-448a-9782-6ccf3bb4d7b1

Anyway, Ireland has done exceptionally well out of the EU but that's been as much luck as judgement. Hopefully we can continue to dodge bullets.

sam1986uk

There are too many facets and details of this EU immigration issue.. I'll give a few examples of a typical occurrence in the UK that has been happening for years

Romanian Gypsies sell the Big Issue magazine in the UK because it allows them to register as "self-employed" after 3 months they become habitually resident and the entire welfare system opens up to them. They can then proceed to claim thousands and thousands of pounds in welfare and housing benefits for themselves and their dependencies.

A Polish couple comes over, walks into a factory job and works hard for a year or so.. Magda gets pregnant.. She gives up work. The bloke continues working but as a family they are eligible for housing benefits, working/child tax credits, and all the addons...

Poor British and Irish people are subsided.. We have large welfare states.. I'm not talking about the lazy chav class, I'm talking about low-income people which incidentally Eastern/Central Europeans fit into.

Freedom of movement is fine between countries of similar wealth - Germany, France, etc.

Another thing.. we're not just open to all of Europe.. We're open to the third-world people that qualify for EU passports.

The Brazilians that have Portuguese passports
The "Dutch" Somalis

bobbyss

Sam Russell wrote:

There were plenty of NI Secretaries who did not know anything about NI when appointed. Few Cabinet Ministers could draw the border for NI.

I often wonder how N Irish people feel about these NI Secretaries imported with Oxbridge accents. After a short period they are changed. No connection with the people. Igronant of the issues.

Lumen

sam1986uk wrote: »

Poor British and Irish people are subsided.. We have large welfare states.. I'm not talking about the lazy chav class, I'm talking about low-income people which incidentally Eastern/Central Europeans fit into

It is arguably the employers of low income workers who are "subsidized", not the workers themselves.

Besides which, how do you propose that your supermarket shelves are stacked and your fruit picked? By robots? Cos if not, the costs of whichever people are doing the stacking has to be borne by society somehow, whether by state supports or higher food costs.

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK will be saving money now it won't have to increase fishery protection which would have been required in the event of no deal.

There is a difference between saving and refraining from needless and worthless expenditure. The UK is no better off now than it was, infact it is vastly worse off as a result of Brexit than it otherwise would have been.

Padre_Pio

David Frost, No 10's chief negotiator, celebrated “one of the biggest and broadest agreements ever” that would ensure the UK “sets its own laws again”.

So long as these laws don't contravene any existing UK EU agreements.

I see the EU have favoured nation status, so the UK can't give other countries preferential treatment.

Funny that the EU Japan trade deal has the same clause, meaning the UK Japan deal cannot be better than what either side has with the EU.
So much for the brexiter celebrations there :rolleyes:

fash

Widdensushi wrote: »

Obviously not a runner at the moment, I wonder with tariff free arrangements and an arrangement where we gradually get big quotas and control of our own waters over time what the projections would be???

. All third party (e.g. US based) commentators and those looking deeply into the agreement come to the conclusion that the EU has won big (or to put it another way "the real agreement was that parties agreed that the EU was allowed to decide the content of the treaty and the UK was allowed to decide how to sell it".

Let's see how long it takes for the UK population to realise they've been duped.