Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Capt'n Midnight

Donald Trump wrote: »

It isn't a zero sum game when comparing pre- and post-Brexit. Whenever you introduce frictions into any relationship then you introduce inefficiencies. If what was there before was a 100-slice full pie in terms of EU-UK trade, then after the split you maybe have a partial 95-slice pie overall. If the pre split was 50-slices each and now the split is 48-UK/47-EU then they aren't better off. In reality, it is likely to go more like 46-UK 49-EU.

There will be costs and delays to the EU side too. Paperwork and opportunity costs because of capital tied up in stockpiling.

The US enforced the Irish sea border and refused to remove tariffs on Scottish Whisky so no doubt the UK will get a great free trade deal with them.



Good thing they didn't have to trade off too much for the win on fishing eh ?

Fishing is 0.02% of the UK economy. Processing fish is worth a lot more though.

The UK will now get 15% more this year and 2.5% more per year till 2025 and it's not across all species.

the really big increases in quota for UK vessels are in species they don't target much now, and for which there isn't much market in Britain.

And fishing is all back up for negotiation again in 2026.

Leroy42

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Sorry but I’ve seen some quite vitriolic posts that very much come across as sheer glee at the hope that the Brits will be decimated, Scotland will gain independence and then a UI and leave England as a shell out on the scrap heap.....how else should I describe that?

But you miss the point of my post, and that is that nobody can know how this will all play out in the future.

Thanks

With that attitude nobody can know anything. The future is always uncertain, who thought we would have the 2020 we just witnessed?

But, one can look at the past and what is changing to gauge the likely outcome. Brexit is a massive gamble. And governments and society as a whole, is not supposed to take gambles on unknowns. Particularly when the costs are petty well known but the advantages are not even agreed as to what they might be, never mind how much.

And many of the negatives raised by people, on this thread as well as elsewhere, have come to pass. NI has been sidelined, massive institutional damage done with attacks on the CS, HoL, judiciary, increased partisanship in politics, loss of a voice in the EU but agree to standards, increased costs and complexity for business, hassle for brits travelling and looking to live in the EU, loss of freedom's. Significant threat to the financial services sector.

The best is that they have rolled over some trade deals. Which is a claim of a win when really its not a loss.

So will it be a disaster? Unknown, but so far it has been a complete disaster. 4 years wasted, 200bn lost. There is nothing to suggest anyone can point to anything that will revert those.

listermint

sam1986uk wrote: »

Oh, give me a break. May I ask what these jobs were that destitute Irish folk were flocking to in their droves? I'd love to know.

99% of British / Irish do not benefit from freedom of movement because:

a) our countries are wealthy with relatively high wages. It's best to stay here.
b) We're absolute GARBAGE at languages.

I'm from Scotland, not England.

Bizarrely absent from the Scottish independence thread.


Just something that was noticed.

Anyway back to brexit. It's an amateur **** show that will realise into an amateur **** show next year from a poorly educated Tory party of wealthy incompetents. Useful idiots.

moon2

sam1986uk wrote: »

Oh, give me a break. May I ask what these jobs were that destitute Irish folk were flocking to in their droves? I'd love to know.

Chemical, civil and electronic engineers. More than half returned.

Edit: perhaps a better phrasing is that Ireland lost out as some of these people emigrated permanently. We educated them and the benefits went to spain, belgium and Germany.

HalfAndHalf

Leroy42 wrote: »

With that attitude nobody can know anything. The future is always uncertain, who thought we would have the 2020 we just witnessed?

But, one can look at the past and what is changing to gauge the likely outcome. Brexit is a massive gamble. And governments and society as a whole, is not supposed to take gambles on unknowns. Particularly when the costs are petty well known but the advantages are not even agreed as to what they might be, never mind how much.

And many of the negatives raised by people, on this thread as well as elsewhere, have come to pass. NI has been sidelined, massive institutional damage done with attacks on the CS, HoL, judiciary, increased partisanship in politics, loss of a voice in the EU but agree to standards, increased costs and complexity for business, hassle for brits travelling and looking to live in the EU, loss of freedom's. Significant threat to the financial services sector.

The best is that they have rolled over some trade deals. Which is a claim of a win when really its not a loss.

So will it be a disaster? Unknown, but so far it has been a complete disaster. 4 years wasted, 200bn lost. There is nothing to suggest anyone can point to anything that will revert those.

As I say, the UK’s relationship with the EU will never be the same again! A huge amount of benefits are now lost to predominantly the young and middle aged such as FOM. These people can still move and work in these countries but it will be more difficult and a lot more involved and expensive, and likely they will be passed over for roles to someone who can easily move and work there.

But, there are still huge trading partners out in the world, the EU is not the only trading bloc and is now not even the largest, so as I said it will be interesting to see how the U.K. plays things and what they manage to agree elsewhere.

This, I think was always the ‘grand plan’ they see themselves as a ‘global country’ and hope to have deals all over the globe. Whether that comes to be after they’ve made themselves look quite bad recently remains to be seen.

Donald Trump

sam1986uk wrote: »

Oh, give me a break. May I ask what these jobs were that destitute Irish folk were flocking to in their droves? I'd love to know.

99% of British / Irish do not benefit from freedom of movement because:

a) our countries are wealthy with relatively high wages. It's best to stay here.
b) We're absolute GARBAGE at languages.

I'm from Scotland, not England.

Everyone benefits from it. Those low cost workers picking your fruit and veg or working in your shops so that they can get a foot on the ladder benefit you indirectly. You're probably not going to do those jobs. and you're also not going to want to pay end prices needed to someone 20 pound an hour to do those tasks.



If you don't see the benefit to yourself of being able to move and work in the European Union then that is fine. Others see that benefit and value it. You don't have to for it to be real.

Donald Trump

moon2 wrote: »

sam1986uk wrote: »

May I ask what these jobs were that destitute Irish folk were flocking to in their droves? I'd love to know.

Chemical, civil and electronic engineers. More than half returned.

At 19:55

Thousands of EU nurses and doctors have now gone home and it's a massive problem for the UK health services

From 19:09 there is a bit about an Irish doctor coming back to Dublin with her kids because of Brexit

kowloon

listermint wrote: »

Bizarrely absent from the Scottish independence thread.

5 Posts? This is the only thread they've posted in. The whole "I have a little chuckle to myself reading about X" act doesn't hold up well when it's the topic that winds them up enough to register an account for.

Leroy42

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

As I say, the UK’s relationship with the EU will never be the same again! A huge amount of benefits are now lost to predominantly the young and middle aged such as FOM. These people can still move and work in these countries but it will be more difficult and a lot more involved and expensive, and likely they will be passed over for roles to someone who can easily move and work there.

But, there are still huge trading partners out in the world, the EU is not the only trading bloc and is now not even the largest, so as I said it will be interesting to see how the U.K. plays things and what they manage to agree elsewhere.

This, I think was always the ‘grand plan’ they see themselves as a ‘global country’ and hope to have deals all over the globe. Whether that comes to be after they’ve made themselves look quite bad recently remains to be seen.

Except they have already ruled out getting into another block, as that would involve loss of sovereignty.

So what other benefits? One of the issues they had was EU immigration and having to pay into the EU. Both of those were as a consequence of the UK being a better economy than others. And any trade deals will either involve much larger countries (US and China) or smaller. Those smaller will want access to UK and will needs funding to enable them to require the type of products and services UK lead in.

None of it makes sense. The very things they railed against they will now be forced to undertake on their own.

Valhallapt

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Appreciate this is only a few areas of a couple thousand pages of legal jargon but I don’t see a cut and dry winner myself but we can only wait and see.

The UK are the clear losers, perhaps not obvious from the text though. As will become clear the UK is intertwined and dependent on the EU even in a post Brexit world. Before Brexit they had the power to stop any EU law they didn’t like, they have given up that power for a couple buckets of fish. The UK is supplicant to the EU

HalfAndHalf

Leroy42 wrote: »

Except they have already ruled out getting into another block, as that would involve loss of sovereignty.

So what other benefits? One of the issues they had was EU immigration and having to pay into the EU. Both of those were as a consequence of the UK being a better economy than others. And any trade deals will either involve much larger countries (US and China) or smaller. Those smaller will want access to UK and will needs funding to enable them to require the type of products and services UK lead in.

None of it makes sense. The very things they railed against they will now be forced to undertake on their own.

I don’t profess to know what they’re saying or thinking but it was publicised that the U.K. want to join RCEP and a few member countries had publicly stated their support of that. Haven’t had time or to be honest the interest what with Brexit fatigue to start reading up on RCEP but I ‘think’ it is purely a trading bloc.

It would be stupid of them to not look at directions like this or they’ll end up cut off from the world they think they’re going to be a part of.

As for the US I can’t see that being much of a deal at all, they’re trying to rush it through before Trump gets forcibly removed but from what I was reading there they’re pushing for the dodgy beef and chicken to be on the menu and surely that can’t fly with the new EU deal and standards?

sam1986uk

Donald Trump wrote: »

Everyone benefits from it. Those low cost workers picking your fruit and veg or working in your shops so that they can get a foot on the ladder benefit you indirectly. You're probably not going to do those jobs. and you're also not going to want to pay end prices needed to someone 20 pound an hour to do those tasks.

Who was picking the fruit and veg before 2004 when the floodgates opened?

I hope the greedy and lazy farmers do experience a shortage of labor. They've had it easy for a long time now - shipping in borderline slave labour from the EU, providing them with shared accommodation which incidentally comes out of their wages.

Deshawn

Valhallapt wrote: »

The UK are the clear losers, perhaps not obvious from the text though. As will become clear the UK is intertwined and dependent on the EU even in a post Brexit world. Before Brexit they had the power to stop any EU law they didn’t like, they have given up that power for a couple buckets of fish. The UK is supplicant to the EU

No more budget contribution. Was a 13 billion pounds contribution with a net cost of 9 billion

Law, borders and trade control

Trade agreement

Financial services deal looks a bit ropey though. Too soon to tell overall

HalfAndHalf

Valhallapt wrote: »

The UK are the clear losers, perhaps not obvious from the text though. As will become clear the UK is intertwined and dependent on the EU even in a post Brexit world. Before Brexit they had the power to stop any EU law they didn’t like, they have given up that power for a couple buckets of fish. The UK is supplicant to the EU

How are they clear losers? What will become clear on being intertwined? Surely this only applies around the level playing field aspect, new EU laws will not apply to the U.K. outside of that?

sam1986uk

Donald Trump wrote: »

From 19:09 there is a bit about an Irish doctor coming back to Dublin with her kids because of Brexit

Well, that is strange.. I suspect she was moving back to Ireland because of other reasons and DW couldn't resist sticking a Brexit slant on it.

Anyway, she's welcome back anytime. As you know British and Irish treat each others citizens the same.

HalfAndHalf

Deshawn wrote: »

No more budget contribution. Was a 13 billion pounds contribution with a net cost of 9 billion

Law, borders and trade control

Trade agreement

Financial services deal looks a bit ropey though. Too soon to tell overall

This is what I thought around laws, hence my other reply. Thanks.

From what I was reading about financial services it might not be too bad. A lot have received 6 month extensions and saw the other day over 1000 EU companies have paid for U.K. licences to continue so surely not a decimation that is being touted?

sam1986uk

Deshawn wrote: »

No more budget contribution. Was a 13 billion pounds contribution with a net cost of 9 billion

Law, borders and trade control

Trade agreement

Financial services deal looks a bit ropey though. Too soon to tell overall

The budget contributions are nothing compared to the savings made on not paying a never-ending stream of EU citizens Tax Credits, Housing Benefits.

Then there are the savings made by NOT paying British citizens the same benefits because they can get some work now.

Then there are a million treasury benefits that are too numerous to list.

JamesFlynn

sam1986uk wrote: »

The budget contributions are nothing compared to the savings made on not paying a never-ending stream of EU citizens Tax Credits, Housing Benefits.

Then there are the savings made by NOT paying British citizens the same benefits because they can get some work now.

Then there are a million treasury benefits that are too numerous to list.

As it's a relatively contentious issue, would you mind mentioning at least a few of those treasury benefits? No need to list them all as they are too numerous, but maybe 20 or 30 to get us started?

Leroy42

sam1986uk wrote: »

The budget contributions are nothing compared to the savings made on not paying a never-ending stream of EU citizens Tax Credits, Housing Benefits.

Then there are the savings made by NOT paying British citizens the same benefits because they can get some work now.

Then there are a million treasury benefits that are too numerous to list.

Give it a go. How much will they save in not paying benefits? Who is going to pay for the 50k custom officials? The truck parks? The extra vets? The extra civil servants? Who will pay the extra costs due to extra regulation costs?

sam1986uk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Give it a go. How much will they save in not paying benefits? Who is going to pay for the 50k custom officials? The truck parks? The extra vets? The extra civil servants? Who will pay the extra costs due to extra regulation costs?

How can you expect me to give figures on that? It is clearly a hell of a lot.

The last time I checked a few years ago there were roughly 300,000+ EU citizens on job seekers allowance.

That takes no account of Housing Benefits and Tax Credits


https://benefity.org.uk/ One of many Polish language websites dedicated to the UK benefits system. Type "Benefity w UK" into google and find loads of forums where they all discuss it.

HalfAndHalf

sam1986uk wrote: »

The budget contributions are nothing compared to the savings made on not paying a never-ending stream of EU citizens Tax Credits, Housing Benefits.

Then there are the savings made by NOT paying British citizens the same benefits because they can get some work now.

Then there are a million treasury benefits that are too numerous to list.

Ah the old I’ll be able to get that job now that *bloody foreigner* has been sent packing argument.

I’ll be honest my initial post said about some real vitriolic posts that come across as Brit hating......

......you’re really not helping me here fella! It’s all a bit Daily Fail that post!

breezy1985

sam1986uk wrote: »

Oh, give me a break. May I ask what these jobs were that destitute Irish folk were flocking to in their droves? I'd love to know.

99% of British / Irish do not benefit from freedom of movement because:

a) our countries are wealthy with relatively high wages. It's best to stay here.
b) We're absolute GARBAGE at languages.

I'm from Scotland, not England.

Hospitality for me and most of the Irish I came to know in London too

Leroy42

sam1986uk wrote: »

How can you expect me to give figures on that? It is clearly a hell of a lot.

The last time I checked a few years ago there were roughly 300,000+ EU citizens on job seekers allowance.

That takes no account of Housing Benefits and Tax Credits

OK, so you don't know, just think it must be massive. And I assume you haven't looked at the new costs ?

You seemed so certain I thought you must have some pretty decent facts to base your post.

OK, heres an easier one. When will the UK see this benefits? 2021, 2025, 2030?

kowloon

sam1986uk wrote: »

The budget contributions are nothing compared to the savings made on not paying a never-ending stream of EU citizens Tax Credits, Housing Benefits.

Then there are the savings made by NOT paying British citizens the same benefits because they can get some work now.

Then there are a million treasury benefits that are too numerous to list.

Schrodinger's immigrant: here to claim all the benefits but simultaneously taking the jobs.

Gerry T

The UK needs 50,000 additional customs officials. The annual cost for that is between 30% to 50% of the 7.5b (you forgot to include the 1.5b paid direct to UK business such as research grants, not normally listed in uk gov figures as uk.gov dont receive this money.). That doesnt include all the other costs, like setting up the 40 odd EU agencies the uk uses, such as eurathom erc... nor does it include the vet inspectors. But more importanly the deal is talking about new joint bodies which in practical terms replicate the current eu bodies. This will all cost the UK. its going to be well in excess of 7.5b



i havent seen detail, spending the best part of a week stuffing my face and drinking too much. But what ive read suggests the UK can now make their own laws (as long as they keep tracking EU laws in certain areas-trade, workers rights, environment...)
The UK always had total control of its borders, nothing new here.
Unless the uk gets a trade deal thats better than what ot had as part of the EU, then your trade control is busted. That just sounds like "we're taking back control to make it worse". If so its time for plan B.









it is too soon, another week and we will start getting some clear analysis.

Me thinks theres a good reason Johnson waited until christmas eve, markets closed and everyone too busy to pay attention. If only Johnson hadn't spent over a yr sh1t talking the UK and bigging up what the UK would get, clearly that hasnt happened.
Hes like a stupid version of the guy that says the world is ending but ohnsonpuhad a fixed end date, not smart when you know your bulls*itting.

sam1986uk

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06955/SN06955.pdf

This is 2015 so you can only imagine the figures now.

What proportion of benefit claimants are non-UK nationals?
In February 2015, 371,220 working-age claimants of DWP benefits
(7.2% of total claimants) were non-UK nationals when they first
registered for a National Insurance Number (NINo). 113,960 of these
were EU nationals, 30.7% of non-UK claimants and 2.2% of total
claimants.1

… and how many of these are out-of-work?
287,300 non-UK nationals at the point of NINo registration were
claiming key DWP out-of-work benefits as of February 2015, 7.4% of
total claimants.2 Of these 91,700 were EU (excl. UK) nationals, 2.4% of
total claimants.3 Note this total does not include claimants of Housing
Benefit – available to both in- and out- of work recipients – or tax
credits – administered by HMRC.


Are non-UK nationals more likely to receive out-of-work benefits
than UK-born persons?
No. Non-UK nationals at the point of NINo registration are less likely to
be receiving key DWP out-of-work benefits than UK-born.
According to the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory’s analysis
of the Labour Force Survey, in the first three months of 2014 people
born outside the UK comprised 16.2% of the working-age population.
At the same time, in February 2014, 7.7% of working-age individuals
receiving key out-of-work benefits were non-UK nationals.4
How many non-UK nationals claim tax credits and what does this
cost the Exchequer?


In March 2014 738,900 families who were in receipt of tax credits
(15.9% of the total) contained at least one adult who was a non-UK
national at NINo registration. 317,800 of these claimants were EU
nationals, 43% of total non-UK claimants and 6.8% of total claimants

sam1986uk

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Ah the old I’ll be able to get that job now that *bloody foreigner* has been sent packing argument.

I’ll be honest my initial post said about some real vitriolic posts that come across as Brit hating......

......you’re really not helping me here fella! It’s all a bit Daily Fail that post!

Where have I indicated a desire to have anyone kicked out or sent packing?

Imreoir2

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

What I’m saying is depending on what the U.K. manage to do moving forwards will dictate whether their economy flourishes or diminishes. This is what is yet to be seen.

I strongly disagree with this narative.

What has yet to be seen is if, after much needless short term pain, the UK emerges marginally worse off, or significantly worse off. There is no reality in which the UK flourishes and becomes better off as a result of Brexit.

Deshawn

Gerry T wrote: »

The UK needs 50,000 additional customs officials. The annual cost for that is more than the 7.5b (you forgot to include the 1.5b paid direct to UK business such as research grants, not normally listed in uk gov figures as uk.gov dont receive this money.). That doesnt include all the other costs, like setting up the 40 odd EU agencies the uk uses, such as eurathom erc...

i havent seen detail, spending the best part of a week stuffing my face and drinking too much. But what ive read suggests the UK can now make their own laws (as long as they keep tracking EU laws in certain areas-trade, workers rights, environment...)
The UK always had total control of its borders, nothing new here.
Unless the uk gets a trade deal thats better than what ot had as part of the EU, then your trade control is busted. That just sounds like "we're taking back control to make it worse". If so its time for plan B.





it is too soon, another week and we will start getting some clear analysis.

Me thinks theres a good reason Johnson waited until christmas eve, markets closed and everyone too busy to pay attention. If only Johnson hadn't spent over a yr sh1t talking the UK and bigging up what the UK would get, clearly that hasnt happened.
Hes like a stupid version of the guy that says the world is ending but ohnsonpuhad a fixed end date, not smart when you know your bulls*itting.

50,000 long term stable tax paying jobs created you mean?

The UK may now make trade deals with individual countries that were not possible when in the EU

sam1986uk

Deshawn wrote: »

50,000 long term stable tax paying jobs created you mean?

The UK may now make trade deals with individual countries that were not possible when in the EU

I wonder how the Japanese cope with employing so many customs officials to deal with trade with a much larger entity across the sea :P