Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

fash

sam1986uk wrote: »

I'll give a few examples of a typical occurrence in the UK that has been happening for years

Romanian Gypsies sell the Big Issue magazine in the UK because it allows them to register as "self-employed" after 3 months they become habitually resident and the entire welfare system opens up to them. They can then proceed to claim thousands and thousands of pounds in welfare and housing benefits for themselves and their dependencies.

A Polish couple comes over, walks into a factory job and works hard for a year or so.. Magda gets pregnant.. She gives up work. The bloke continues working but as a family they are eligible for housing benefits, working/child tax credits, and all the addons...

... And given that EU -and eastern member state - migration to the UK (as well as to Ireland) creates a massive surplus for the state coffers in tax and social welfare paid without drawing on benefits (whereas the local population is net negative) - even with these apocryphal cases (and that is aside from considering the other economic benefits) - it makes you think doesn't it?

Enzokk

sam1986uk wrote: »

There are too many facets and details of this EU immigration issue.. I'll give a few examples of a typical occurrence in the UK that has been happening for years

Romanian Gypsies sell the Big Issue magazine in the UK because it allows them to register as "self-employed" after 3 months they become habitually resident and the entire welfare system opens up to them. They can then proceed to claim thousands and thousands of pounds in welfare and housing benefits for themselves and their dependencies.

A Polish couple comes over, walks into a factory job and works hard for a year or so.. Magda gets pregnant.. She gives up work. The bloke continues working but as a family they are eligible for housing benefits, working/child tax credits, and all the addons...

Poor British and Irish people are subsided.. We have large welfare states.. I'm not talking about the lazy chav class, I'm talking about low-income people which incidentally Eastern/Central Europeans fit into.

Freedom of movement is fine between countries of similar wealth - Germany, France, etc.

Another thing.. we're not just open to all of Europe.. We're open to the third-world people that qualify for EU passports.

The Brazilians that have Portuguese passports
The "Dutch" Somalis

Is this the mythical Schrodinger's immigrants again? Where they at the same time will take our jobs and also claim, as you put it, thousands in benefits.

squeekyduck

Long time lurker, first poster in this thread.

Firstly, thank you all for the educated debate and non-biased (mostly) review of Brexit over the past few years.

I have tried to read the agreement text, and I must admit defeat. There is repetition in certain sections but the main takeaway for me (maybe getting this wrong) is further reviews later down the line. I live in the UK and the propaganda machine has focused on fishing for this particular reason.

The one-piece I cannot get my head around is the freedom of movement, I think the UK has done well here. Brexit was always about the "foreigners" and I cannot help but think that they have met the "less than 100,000 immigration" target that Teresa May and co did promise. I wonder if this will be spun in the coming days as a positive?

sam1986uk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Expect to see Irish universities swamped with Erasmus applications from now onwards.

ERASMUS was abolished and replaced because it was a cash cow for EU students getting free degrees and absconding without paying the loans back. Boris diplomatically said something along the lines of "The treasury said it just wasn't feasible. ".

Reportedly, over 12,000 graduates have disappeared after gaining their degree in the UK, leaving an unpaid debt of around GBP89 million (US$126 million).

I believe Denmark has an issue with this as well

timetogo1

squeekyduck wrote: »

.The one-piece I cannot get my head around is the freedom of movement, I think the UK has done well here. Brexit was always about the "foreigners" and I cannot help but think that they have met the "less than 100,000 immigration" target that Teresa May and co did promise. I wonder if this will be spun in the coming days as a positive?

They had 175,000 immigrants from non EU countries in 2019

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/

fash

squeekyduck wrote: »

The one-piece I cannot get my head around is the freedom of movement, I think the UK has done well here. Brexit was always about the "foreigners" and I cannot help but think that they have met the "less than 100,000 immigration" target that Teresa May and co did promise. I wonder if this will be spun in the coming days as a positive?

As of 2018/19, 90% of migration to UK was from non EU sources and the lowest level was about 60%. That never had anything to do with the EU - so that will continue and in fact increase.
The UK will continue to look for cheap labour - however it will increasingly be from north africa, the middle east and afghanistan, pakistan and India instead of the EU. Do not expect (or hope) that that will change.

Nevertheless,, you are correct that Priti Patel and the Tories have already been celebrating the ending of freedom of movement as a victory.

It should be noted however that:
That right to freedom of movement is reciprocal - which will be problematic for UK citizens retiring to Spain etc.;
The "freedom of movement" "problem" was caused primarily in Ireland, Sweden and the UK - in reality there are only 2 eastern european countries which sent significant numbers of people to the UK - Poland and Romania - and prior to this no one complained about "French" and "Spanish" migrants "taking our jobs".

In particular in relation to Poland, Ireland, UK & Sweden allowed immediate access to their countries to the 10 original accession states whereas most EU countries allowed the 7 year brakes allowed by the EU in order to slowly ease those countries into the EU to allow their economies to converge to EU levels to minimize dramatic influxes. Ireland, Sweden & UK did not - in order to tap the migration flows for their economies. Consequently, as the only possible destination countries (and especially while the accession states were at the relative poorest), they got large flows. Of note, these economies are now booming (so far fewer people want to leave, the salary differential is reduced and the EU lifestyle benefits are already in place) and their populations have all of the EU (e.g. Germany, Austria and other closer to home countries) to move to if they wish.
Also of note is that birth rates in these countries have been declining since the 1980's. In other words, the large aughties migration was the last demographically or economically possible. It can never be repeated.
Also of note, aside perhaps from Ukraine (, which is suffering significant decline in its young population), there is nowhere left for the EU to expand that has a significant population to migrate.

Hence even without Brexit, the " freedom of movement" "problem" was something already in the past - or in other words, if you voted for Brexit based on freedom of movement, you voted for a permanent solution to a temporary problem.

fash

sam1986uk wrote: »

ERASMUS was abolished and replaced because it was a cash cow for EU students getting free degrees and absconding without paying the loans back. Boris diplomatically said something along the lines of "The treasury said it just wasn't feasible. ".

Reportedly, over 12,000 graduates have disappeared after gaining their degree in the UK, leaving an unpaid debt of around GBP89 million (US$126 million).

I believe Denmark has an issue with this as well

Garbled nonsense: What has Erasmus got to do with "free degrees"? You pay your fees in your own country - and get your degree from your own country.

The Tories ended Erasmus (late in the negotiation having earlier reassured their voters they would not) as a concession to Brexiters - Erasmus fosters pro EU sentiment and cultural exchange. That is not in Brexiter interests.

Note an interesting look at the details of the replacement Turing exchange program:
.

Lumen

This covers the migration numbers but also explains how we ended up at this point, relating immigration to the "Barnier staircase":

Immigration between the referendum and Brexit
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/long-read/immigration-between-the-referendum-and-brexit/

It happens to match my personal view, which is that this end game was inevitable given the two sets of red lines (1) UK insistence on end to FOM (2) EU insistence on indivisibility of four freedoms.

Theresa May has been cast as somewhat of a moderate by current standards, but in fact it was her obsession with immigration which started them on this course, she just wouldn't recognize the opposing red lines.

It is unfortunate that the Brexiters failed to hide the fact that immigration was their only red line, because it allowed the EU to win all the other territory. You can argue that control of immigration is not a win either, but that's not how the Brexit mind works. That's why they will vote this through despite it being a terrible deal, and despite immigration being an issue that the electorate has moved on from, for now.

For the British public the effect that will really bite is the cutting off of cheap labour for the social care sector, which is not currently exempted from wage or skill thresholds (or at least wasn't when that article was published in June 2020). This is because since the introduction of Care Financial Assessments, citizens with any substantial assets (over around 23k) have been paying for their own care.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/social-care-and-support-guide/help-from-social-services-and-charities/financial-assessment-means-test/

The effect of this will be to wipe out inheritance for the middle classes, since all assets will be drained by social care costs unless people suddenly drop dead.

Or course the rich will be unaffected, since they can afford to transfer their assets into family trusts or via other mechanisms which put the assets out of reach of the government, and in any case social care costs are not a big deal for rich people anyway.

lawrencesummers

What does the change to FOM mean for the British retired to the sun? Is that going to stop now? Will those living there have to head home? Or are they to be granted the right to stay?

Will they will have access to healthcare when living in the EU?

schmoo2k

fash wrote: »

. All third party (e.g. US based) commentators and those looking deeply into the agreement come to the conclusion that the EU has won big (or to put it another way "the real agreement was that parties agreed that the EU was allowed to decide the content of the treaty and the UK was allowed to decide how to sell it".

Let's see how long it takes for the UK population to realise they've been duped.

The majority never will due to their biased news / media bubbles - but that's a rant for a different thread (and if anyone thinks they are not in a biased bubble then they 100% are).

mrunsure

Lumen wrote: »

For the British public the effect that will really bite is the cutting off of cheap labour for the social care sector, which is not currently exempted from wage or skill thresholds (or at least wasn't when that article was published in June 2020). This is because since the introduction of Care Financial Assessments, citizens with any substantial assets (over around 23k) have been paying for their own care.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/social-care-and-support-guide/help-from-social-services-and-charities/financial-assessment-means-test/

The effect of this will be to wipe out inheritance for the middle classes, since all assets will be drained by social care costs unless people suddenly drop dead.

UK pensioners who think they might need social care might be better off moving to Ireland in that case.

RobMc59

schmoo2k wrote: »

The majority never will due to their biased news / media bubbles - but that's a rant for a different thread (and if anyone thinks they are not in a biased bubble then they 100% are).

That works both ways.During negotiations it was very interesting reading either sides take on proceedings.

mrunsure

lawrencesummers wrote: »

What does the change to FOM mean for the British retired to the sun? Is that going to stop now? Will those living there have to head home? Or are they to be granted the right to stay?

Will they will have access to healthcare when living in the EU?

People who have moved to EU countries before 31 December 2020 should be able to stay there under the Withdrawal Agreement. They have to register with their respective countries. Healthcare is covered under the deal, as well as uprating of pensions:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/agreements-reached-between-the-united-kingdom-of-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-and-the-european-union/summary-explainer

113. The provisions in the Protocol on Social Security Coordination will ensure that individuals who move between the UK and the EU in the future will have their social security position in respect of certain important benefits protected. Individuals will be able to have access to a range of social security benefits, including reciprocal healthcare cover and an uprated state pension.

116. Under the Protocol, the UK and EU Member States will be able to take into account relevant contributions paid into each other’s social security systems, or relevant periods of work or residence, by individuals for determining entitlement to a state pension and to a range of benefits. This will provide a good level of protection for people working in the UK and EU Member States. The Protocol also provides for the uprating of the UK State Pension paid to pensioners who retire to the EU.

117. On healthcare, where the UK or an EU Member State is responsible for the healthcare of an individual, they will be entitled to reciprocal healthcare cover. This includes certain categories of cross-border workers and state pensioners who retire to the UK or to the EU.

People moving from 1 January will need a visa from the relevant country. Spain offers a "Non Lucrative Visa" for people who can live off their own income without getting a job. The financial requirements are quite modest. You need to have something like €25,000 in savings. This is a useful option for British people who remote work. There is no obligation to stay in Spain the whole time. This might be a way for these people to regain EU citizenship by continuing to renew that visa and then applying for citizenship after enough years have passed.

But you also need to have private health insurance which is an issue for pensioners with pre-existing health conditions. What is unclear to me whether the deal will help regarding the health insurance.

Portugal has made noises to suggest they will make it easier for Brits to retire regardless of any deal.

breezy1985

mrunsure wrote: »

UK pensioners who think they might need social care might be better off moving to Ireland in that case.

Cost of overall health care in Ireland is huge compared to the UK so I doubt it

lawrencesummers

mrunsure wrote: »

People who have moved to EU countries before 31 December 2020 should be able to stay there under the Withdrawal Agreement. They have to register with their respective countries. Healthcare is covered under the deal, as well as uprating of pensions:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/agreements-reached-between-the-united-kingdom-of-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-and-the-european-union/summary-explainer



From 1 January they will need a visa from the relevant country. Spain offers a "Non Lucrative Visa" for people who can live off their own income without getting a job. The financial requirements are quite modest. You need to have something like €25,000 in savings. This is a useful option for British people who remote work. There is no obligation to stay in Spain the whole time. This might be a way for these people to regain EU citizenship by continuing to renew that visa and then applying for citizenship after enough years have passed.

But you also need to have private health insurance which is an issue for pensioners with pre-existing health conditions. What is unclear to me whether the deal will help regarding the health insurance.

Portugal has made noises to suggest they will make it easier for Brits to retire regardless of any deal.

The health coverage will presumably be the deciding factor for people. People with current Euro health cards will presumably be covered until they expire at least.

cameramonkey

lawrencesummers wrote: »

The health coverage will presumably be the deciding factor for people. People with current Euro health cards will presumably be covered until they expire at least.

expire is harsh, pass over much nicer.

schmoo2k

RobMc59 wrote: »

That works both ways.During negotiations it was very interesting reading either sides take on proceedings.

Absolutely both ways (which is what I was trying to convey) - remainers in one bubble and exiters in another.

yagan

fash wrote: »

Garbled nonsense: What has Erasmus got to do with "free degrees"? You pay your fees in your own country - and get your degree from your own country.

The Tories ended Erasmus (late in the negotiation having earlier reassured their voters they would not) as a concession to Brexiters - Erasmus fosters pro EU sentiment and cultural exchange. That is not in Brexiter interests.

Note an interesting look at the details of the replacement Turing exchange program:
.

I thought the Swiss had ditched leaving Erasmus? Quick google show the Swiss are returning to Erasmus after January 1st.

I have a feeling the 30.000 UK students using the Turing fund would probably have no problem paying international fees anyway.

mrunsure

yagan wrote: »

I thought the Swiss had ditched leaving Erasmus? Quick google show the Swiss are returning to Erasmus after January 1st.

They were kicked out of Erasmus after they voted to end free movement in a referendum a few years back by a very close margin. Sensibly, the Swiss realised that this was not viable and decided to ignore the referendum. They had another referendum on this recently which was rejected quite comfortably.

Silent Running

mrunsure wrote: »

People who have moved to EU countries before 31 December 2020 should be able to stay there under the Withdrawal Agreement. They have to register with their respective countries. Healthcare is covered under the deal, as well as uprating of pensions:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/agreements-reached-between-the-united-kingdom-of-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-and-the-european-union/summary-explainer



People moving from 1 January will need a visa from the relevant country. Spain offers a "Non Lucrative Visa" for people who can live off their own income without getting a job. The financial requirements are quite modest. You need to have something like €25,000 in savings. This is a useful option for British people who remote work. There is no obligation to stay in Spain the whole time. This might be a way for these people to regain EU citizenship by continuing to renew that visa and then applying for citizenship after enough years have passed.

But you also need to have private health insurance which is an issue for pensioners with pre-existing health conditions. What is unclear to me whether the deal will help regarding the health insurance.

Portugal has made noises to suggest they will make it easier for Brits to retire regardless of any deal.

On the health insurance requirement. When I lived in Spain I had health insurance for my entire family for a little over €500 per year from Helicopteros Sanitarios. This covered unlimited doctor visits and a home doctor service (a full emergency ambulance arrived at my door). There are private clinics available to members, with consultants in attendance. It also covered a helicopter ambulance service if you got injured away from road access. That was up to 7 years ago, it's probably a bit more now.

So, the health insurance rip off that we know here doesn't apply to Spain.

lawrencesummers

Silent Running wrote: »

On the health insurance requirement. When I lived in Spain I had health insurance for my entire family for a little over €500 per year from Helicopteros Sanitarios. This covered unlimited doctor visits and a home doctor service (a full emergency ambulance arrived at my door). There are private clinics available to members, with consultants in attendance. It also covered a helicopter ambulance service if you got injured away from road access. That was up to 7 years ago, it's probably a bit more now.

So, the health insurance rip off that we know here doesn't apply to Spain.

Will nationality, or more so permission to live in Spain be a requirement to access it?

mrunsure

Silent Running wrote: »

On the health insurance requirement. When I lived in Spain I had health insurance for my entire family for a little over €500 per year from Helicopteros Sanitarios. This covered unlimited doctor visits and a home doctor service (a full emergency ambulance arrived at my door). There are private clinics available to members, with consultants in attendance. It also covered a helicopter ambulance service if you got injured away from road access. That was up to 7 years ago, it's probably a bit more now.

So, the health insurance rip off that we know here doesn't apply to Spain.

When I had a quick glance at expat forums a while back, the main issue I have seen is that many if not most Spanish insurers will not cover people with pre-existing health conditions, so cannot get the visa. This is mostly concerning Americans. Healthy Americans are conversely attracted by Spain's cheaper insurance. Obviously most British people are used to (mostly) free healthcare under the NHS so any insurance will seem expensive.

CelticRambler

sam1986uk wrote: »

Has anyone considered the EU immigration implications for Ireland?

Since 2004 the UK has been the number 1 destination for so many Eastern and Central Europeans because it's an Engish speaking country, a wealthy economy with relatively high wages and benefits. Everyone learns English now. Not German, or French.

We're going to get absolutely battered now.

You're way behind the curve, there, sam1986uk. People in continental Europe learn English so that they can communicate with each other (and it's a version of English that can sometimes be difficult for English English-speakers to get to grips with)

In any case, since the referendum, the number of EU migrants in the UK has declined (hence fruit and veg not being picked in English fields). Where have they gone? Not over to Ireland to pick strawberries; no, they've gone to Spain, Germany, Poland, Bulgaria - where the wages are higher and they're closer to home.

So the only thing battering Ireland will be the traditional storms coming in off the Atlantic.

yagan

mrunsure wrote: »

When I had a quick glance at expat forums a while back, the main issue I have seen is that many if not most Spanish insurers will not cover people with pre-existing health conditions, so cannot get the visa. This is mostly concerning Americans. Healthy Americans are conversely attracted by Spain's cheaper insurance. Obviously most British people are used to (mostly) free healthcare under the NHS so any insurance will seem expensive.

That's essentially it, an easy uncomplicated retirement to the sun is gone for most Brits.

I've also perused those forums and my take away was there's thousands of unregistered Brits in Spain living hand to mouth doing cash in hand jobs within the British ghettos. I'd say the Spanish police know about them and won't be surprised if from Jan 1st we start hearing about deportations.

Igotadose

breezy1985 wrote: »

Cost of overall health care in Ireland is huge compared to the UK so I doubt it

Quality and availability of procedures would be a big decider - NHS is worlds ahead of the HSE and the HSE hasn't exactly gotten much better in the last year. Further, if a pensioner in the UK is looking to retire to the sun, that's not Ireland. Sun? What sun?

Silent Running

yagan wrote: »

That's essentially it, an easy uncomplicated retirement to the sun is gone for most Brits.

I've also perused those forums and my take away was there's thousands of unregistered Brits in Spain living hand to mouth doing cash in hand jobs within the British ghettos. I'd say the Spanish police know about them and won't be surprised if from Jan 1st we start hearing about deportations.

I can confirm that there are a lot of Brits on the Costa del Sol quietly working away for cash in hand. But they're not alone. Many Polish workers were doing the same.

There is also a large amount of Brits living suspiciously well with no obvious income. Make what you will of that.

looksee

Igotadose wrote: »

Quality and availability of procedures would be a big decider - NHS is worlds ahead of the HSE and the HSE hasn't exactly gotten much better in the last year. Further, if a pensioner in the UK is looking to retire to the sun, that's not Ireland. Sun? What sun?

Can't agree there, from what I have seen of the NHS it compares pretty equally with the HSE. You will get a doctor's appointment here much, much easier than in the UK - a GP appointment would routinely be at least a week there. Some things are better here, some there, but on balance I don't think there is a huge amount of difference.

yagan

Silent Running wrote: »

I can confirm that there are a lot of Brits on the Costa del Sol quietly working away for cash in hand. But they're not alone. Many Polish workers were doing the same.

There is also a large amount of Brits living suspiciously well with no obvious income. Make what you will of that.

And a few Irish too. I think an Irish crime figure ended up buried in cement there a few years ago.

The difference though for Spanish cops is now British immigrants have to have a Spanish issued ID, the TIE I think it's called to prove they're legally registered.

It's very easy now for Spanish cops to deport overstayers, especially with the new Schengen 90 day rule for British tourists.

lawrencesummers

So we could see Spanish property owners getting deported or not allowed into Spain because their documentation isn’t in order, or they have overstayed?

Valhallapt

Igotadose wrote: »

Quality and availability of procedures would be a big decider - NHS is worlds ahead of the HSE and the HSE hasn't exactly gotten much better in the last year. Further, if a pensioner in the UK is looking to retire to the sun, that's not Ireland. Sun? What sun?

That’s no longer true. The Gap has closed considerably between the NHS and the HSE, a mixture of an improving HSE and a declining NHS.