Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

tanko

Enzokk wrote: »

Taking back control from Brussels and handing it to the newly formed Partnership Council that will meet 50% of the time in Brussels and will make decisions that the UK Parliament will only be informed and apply to the UK.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343216520239968258?s=20

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343219845702299659?s=20

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343224452553834496?s=20

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1343226598284275714?s=20

So they have left the UK to now have something similar to the EU that will leave the UK Parliament in the same position as before.

I was told several times that a BRINO outcome couldn't possibly happen but surprise surprise that is exactly what has happened.
And all those who predicted a no deal crash out BREXIT got it badly wrong.
A gutless coward like BOJO was always going cave in at the last minute and do a deal, a no deal outcome would have been a complete disaster for the UK economy, it was never a possible outcome.
So much for Brexit means Brexit, no deal is better than a bad deal, we're taking back control and all the other bullcrap we've heard for the last few years.

Silent Running

schmoo2k wrote: »

The Devil is in the details for sure and its not going to get easier... But if your financially in a position to buy a property in Spain I would have thought you would sale through the Visa requirements.

(At least CGT means you made a profit on your purchase!)

Not necessarily. I lost money selling my Spanish property in the slump (but bought cheaply when returning here), but I was still stung for the exit tax to the tune of €13,500. The tax is calculated on some magic figure based on the increase of the value of the land, not the house, over the time you owned it. Even though the property lost value, the local council can, and will, say that the land has risen in value. Seeing as you can't sell the house without the land it sits on, you can't argue the valuation.

TLDR: it's an official scam. And Brits will be bitten by it if/when they try to escape.

CelticRambler

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

which goes back to my very first gut reaction

This is a can kick

Everything that is changing for the UK came in the withdrawel agreement (end of FOM, customs union, single market and border on the irish sea) this agreement is basically an extension of the transition on everything else by a very complicated process of them continuing to debate and argue in a little mini council of ministers.

One could argue that every FTA is a can kick. Any FTA is signed on the basis of changing the status quo (usually for the better, this one is unique in being for the worse, but still ... ) ; however, the day any such agreement is signed is rarely the end of the story, with all kinds of measures being phased in over different periods, and not necessarily in an equitable fashion (see Switzerland's recent TA with China).

This FTA draws a line under the UK's old relationship with its EU neighbours, and puts in place a formal mechanism for deciding how that relationship will evolve in the future. Whether you call it a "can kick" or an "extension of the transition" it is very much more biased to the EU's way of doing things than the UK's - we all know how much the UK hates having to engage in formal mechanisms and rules-based protocols.

From now on, every time the UK wants to recover some aspect of EU membership that it didn't realise it had lost - or didn't understand the ripple effect of losing - it'll have to make an application to the EU through the appropriate council or working group. There'll be no setting of deadlines, no pluckly little Englander standing up to the EU giant, no opportunity for grandstanding in front of the British public. For the most part, there'll be a press release that's read by nobody other than a special interest group, and a quiet mention of the cost of the UK's inclusion in the relevant programme.

Whatever cost is associated with these councils, I'm hoping it will be equally shared between the two parties (I mean they're both "sovereign equals" aren't they? ) and as the EU is perfectly set up for this kind of thing, I would expect the cost to be rapidly absorbed into the existing budget for third-country negotiations.

Alun

yagan wrote: »

Which part of "eligible Brit's living in Ireland" confused you?

Plus why do you think it should be free?

I'm not confused at all. Just pointing out that merely being "eligible" for Irish citizenship, via either route, does not confer the right to apply for a passport, you have to go through the whole rigmarole of applying for citizenship first. And I never suggested it should be free, just pointing out that the fees, and the process in general, are non-trivial and could be a barrier for some.

yagan

Alun wrote: »

I'm not confused at all. Just pointing out that merely being "eligible" for Irish citizenship, via either route, does not confer the right to apply for a passport, you have to go through the whole rigmarole of applying for citizenship first. And I never suggested it should be free, just pointing out that the fees, and the process in general, are non-trivial and could be a barrier for some.

Why did you feel you needed to point it out?

Alun

yagan wrote: »

Why did you feel you needed to point it out?

Because you claimed all these Brits were applying for Irish passports the day after the vote, when they weren't. They were applying for citizenship.

yagan

Alun wrote: »

Because you claimed all these Brits were applying for Irish passports the day after the vote, when they weren't. They were applying for citizenship.

You insisting that qualifying for a passport has zero to do with citizenship?

Pedantic trolling.

Enzokk

tanko wrote: »

I was told several times that a BRINO outcome couldn't possibly happen but surprise surprise that is exactly what has happened.
And all those who predicted a no deal crash out BREXIT got it badly wrong.
A gutless coward like BOJO was always going cave in at the last minute and do a deal, a no deal outcome would have been a complete disaster for the UK economy, it was never a possible outcome.
So much for Brexit means Brexit, no deal is better than a bad deal, we're taking back control and all the other bullcrap we've heard for the last few years.

This isn't BRINO though. This is the deal Johnson could get while trying to claim he won the best deal you can have and not giving his MP's time to scrutinize it and to try and kill it.

As for those predicting no-deal? I don't think a lot were, but there were comments about what could happen if the UK continued on its course and how they were behaving during the negotiations. I think you will find most on here would have said that they still believe a deal will be made by Johnson.

I think this deal could have been made a lot sooner, but Johnson didn't want to bring it back to soon as he doesn't want the likes of the ERG to have time to read what they will sign up for. This is a rehash of the WA, where a few months later they realised what they signed and agreed to. Expect the likes of IDS and Mark Francois to be up in arms in a few months time about the deal they most likely will vote for.

ancapailldorcha

yagan wrote: »

You insisting that qualifying for a passport has zero to do with citizenship?

Pedantic trolling.

Don't accuse people of trolling on thread. Use the report function instead please.

tanko

Enzokk wrote: »

This isn't BRINO though. This is the deal Johnson could get while trying to claim he won the best deal you can have and not giving his MP's time to scrutinize it and to try and kill it.

As for those predicting no-deal? I don't think a lot were, but there were comments about what could happen if the UK continued on its course and how they were behaving during the negotiations. I think you will find most on here would have said that they still believe a deal will be made by Johnson.

I think this deal could have been made a lot sooner, but Johnson didn't want to bring it back to soon as he doesn't want the likes of the ERG to have time to read what they will sign up for. This is a rehash of the WA, where a few months later they realised what they signed and agreed to. Expect the likes of IDS and Mark Francois to be up in arms in a few months time about the deal they most likely will vote for.

It looks like BRINO to me, it seems the UK can't change much without getting the go ahead from Brussels.
Here's one example of how little things are going to change, fishing.
The head of the national federation of fishermans organisation has condemned Johnsons trade deal calling it disappointing and a lost opportunity.
He said the EU played hardball and won out in the talks with the deal very close to the status quo and that British fishermen are miles away from what we would consider a balanced and fair share.
He said the fishing industry has been betrayed and sacrificed in order to win a wider deal. In the endgame Boris Johnson caved in on fish despite the rhetoric and assurance she would not do what Ted Heath did in 1973.

And fish was supposed to be a win in the negotiations for the Brits.
The whole thing is a joke, the U.K. has been taken to the cleaners by the EU as i always thought they would. They're leaving nothing apart from their dignity and their sovereignty in Brussels.

mrunsure

tanko wrote: »

It looks like BRINO to me

Can a deal that stops free movement be called BRINO?

tanko

Yeah, we'll see how much they restrict movement in the future, they'll still need people to clean their toilets, stack their shelves, pick their fruit and do all the other jobs they're too lazy to do.

Enzokk

tanko wrote: »

Yeah, we'll see how much they restrict movement in the future, they'll still need people to clean their toilets, stack their shelves, pick their fruit and do all the other jobs they're too lazy to do.

BRINO means BRINO (channeling my inner May here), in that it would have meant that nothing changes other than the UK isn't a member of the EU any longer. This deal isn't it, but the integration of the last 40 years has meant walking away totally was impossible so in some areas it may look like BRINO but in other areas it is not.

Piehead

Enzokk wrote: »

BRINO means BRINO (channeling my inner May here), in that it would have meant that nothing changes other than the UK isn't a member of the EU any longer. This deal isn't it, but the integration of the last 40 years has meant walking away totally was impossible so in some areas it may look like BRINO but in other areas it is not.

And how much does the UK pay into the EU budget for this BRINO privilege?

RobMc59

tanko wrote: »

It looks like BRINO to me, it seems the UK can't change much without getting the go ahead from Brussels.
Here's one example of how little things are going to change, fishing.
The head of the national federation of fishermans organisation has condemned Johnsons trade deal calling it disappointing and a lost opportunity.
He said the EU played hardball and won out in the talks with the deal very close to the status quo and that British fishermen are miles away from what we would consider a balanced and fair share.
He said the fishing industry has been betrayed and sacrificed in order to win a wider deal. In the endgame Boris Johnson caved in on fish despite the rhetoric and assurance she would not do what Ted Heath did in 1973.

And fish was supposed to be a win in the negotiations for the Brits.
The whole thing is a joke, the U.K. has been taken to the cleaners by the EU as i always thought they would. They're leaving nothing apart from their dignity and their sovereignty in Brussels.

It`s strange that you don`t appear to understand that fishing is`nt an important industry in the UK.It was only important because the EU was so worried they would loose access in the event of no deal.
Obviously,what is left of a British fishing fleet will be cheesed off.What is amusing though,is how you can possibly think a five year deal is a win when the EU wanted a ten year deal.Just as the EU were adamant no Canada style deal they negotiated and compromised as did the UK.

CelticRambler

tanko wrote: »

It looks like BRINO to me, it seems the UK can't change much without getting the go ahead from Brussels.

That's not a BRINO deal, that's the EU keeping the UK over a barrel, which is the price the UK had to pay to maintain access to it's largest trading partner.

It's still a "proper" Brexit, though, as British people have lost all their rights as EU citizens, British service providers can no longer trade within the EU unless they jump through hoops to establish themselves within the bloc, and small British businesses have to jump through hoops if they want to trade with EU suppliers or customers.

Imreoir2

Munstergirl854 wrote: »

What will this mean for the value of sterling?Is it set to rise in the coming weeks?

I would guess that we are around a middle estimate of what has been priced in by the market. Probably not likely to see a significant shift one way or the other on the basis of the deal agreed.

eire4

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Favourable opinion of EU: Italy 58%, Denmark 70%, Netherlands 66%. As the observable Brexit negatives kick in for the UK, expect these ratings to increase.

That will likely be one of the silver linings of the whole brexit fiasco is that it will likely make others realize that the pros of the EU vastly out weight the cons and hopefully allow and encourage us to improve as we go along rather then destroy as brexit is likely to do in the end to the UK.

mrunsure

From the travelling point of view, I always felt that Britain was never in the EU "properly", as there was no Schengen or Euro. Looking back it is amazing that I used to post on forums about 10 years ago hoping that Britain would join Schengen. Now I'm devastated at losing free movement, but most Brits aren't bothered about that. Given that even EHIC is staying, most British people will hardly know the difference. Unless there is a massive divergence of economic fortunes compared to the EU, it's going to be hard to get free movement back.

eire4

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Of course. I'm firmly in the pro-UI column.

The poster I was responding to was bringing up some of the usual nonsense that Partitionists like to throw out about a UI and their history on here shows clearly that they live in that politically astute end of the spectrum that favours contrarianism and right-wing tropes over discussion and debate.

I figured which is why I did not bother to respond to what I saw as their disingenuous response to what I posted to yourself.

ancapailldorcha

mrunsure wrote: »

From the travelling point of view, I always felt that Britain was never in the EU "properly", as there was no Schengen or Euro. Looking back it is amazing that I used to post on forums about 10 years ago hoping that Britain would join Schengen. Now I'm devastated at losing free movement, but most Brits aren't bothered about that. Given that even EHIC is staying, most British people will hardly know the difference. Unless there is a massive divergence of economic fortunes compared to the EU, it's going to be hard to get free movement back.

It was ever thus.

I'm reading a wonderful book about European and global powers at the moment. From about the end of the sixteenth century onwards, the idea of any of the central powers conquering the others gives way to each of them looking to maintain a balance of power so that one doesn't surpass the rest.

This applied especially to the British. The Russians as the other flank power concerned themselves primarily with eastward expansion into Siberia and the steppes. The British on the other hand used their colossal navy and wealth to check each of the powers so they could concentrate their own attention on trade and colonisation and not have to worry about a single European power invading their island.

To this end, Cromwell's England subsidised the Dutch and allied the French under Louis XIV against Habsburg Spain while declaring war on the Dutch at various points after along with financing Prussian armies to fight the French and allying Habsburg Austria against Berlin and so on while making sure to grab French colonies and possessions every time a treaty was signed.

Even though this worked extremely well in the past, the irony is that when they bothered they could achieve much. The Single Market is perhaps the best example of a British PM effecting change at a European level. Going forward, I see the UK heading into a slump. The worst has been avoided in the short term in the context of goods but nothing substantial has been gained with this deal.

A more competent HM government might inspire hope for a better version of the CAP designed to protect British biodiversity for instance. Unfortunately, the current trend seems to be very much in favour of kicking the can. It's been decades since they started the process of deciding whether or not to build a new runway for Heathrow so I'm not hopeful here. Dexterity and flexibility in negotiating trade deals aren't of much use when the cards you're holding are poor.

Token concessions like keeping Erasmus would have been nice but they're not even pretending to care about unity at this stage. The next generation of Britons have had their prospects denuded so the older generation could vote for a vision of Britain that never existed and, it seems possible that they did so with vindictive intent in my experience.

But this is what they've chosen for themselves. They knew what they were voting for after all. I'm more certain than ever that my future lies outside this country, sadly and I can't see many other migrants staying unless they have family ties or similar here. It's not that they voted for Brexit at all, funnily enough. It's the pantomime they forced on the rest of us. The one fifth of Brexit voters happy to see a family member or friend lose their job so they can get their endorphin rush, the silly little tokens of sovereignty like blue passports or, worst of all, the endless harping on and on about fish with no regard to who they sell it to or where the catches are processed.

They knew what they were voting for. They rubberstamped it twice so now they own it.

HalfAndHalf

I’ve been a long time lurker on here and it’s been funny to read both sides, you’ve got the real Brit haters who keep saying it’s a disaster for the U.K. and they’re stuck and lost and all that, then the ones that don’t hate the Brits saying that they’re won X and got Y.....

Absolutely no one here knows what has benefited either side to the extent that in 5 or 10 years time where either side will be.

The U.K. have negotiated roll over deals with various countries at the same levels as they had with the EU, this seems like a win for now to me seeing as these deals are sold as the best any EU27 can get as it’s based on the whole. The Japan deal I believe also included some financial services.

There have been promising signals from 4 of the members of RCEP which is now the largest trading bloc in the world.

The EU have maintained the fishing rights bar a small percentage loss for the next 5 years and ensured the sanctity of the single market.

The U.K. have small extensions on most of the financial services parts but the EU have full control on whether they offer equivalence, albeit I read that this loss would only account for around 20% of U.K. financial services?

Appreciate this is only a few areas of a couple thousand pages of legal jargon but I don’t see a cut and dry winner myself but we can only wait and see.

Will be interesting to see who ends up right.

Donald Trump

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

I’ve been a long time lurker on here and it’s been funny to read both sides, you’ve got the real Brit haters who keep saying it’s a disaster for the U.K. and they’re stuck and lost and all that, then the ones that don’t hate the Brits saying that they’re won X and got Y.....

Absolutely no one here knows what has benefited either side to the extent that in 5 or 10 years time where either side will be.

The U.K. have negotiated roll over deals with various countries at the same levels as they had with the EU, this seems like a win for now to me seeing as these deals are sold as the best any EU27 can get as it’s based on the whole. The Japan deal I believe also included some financial services.

There have been promising signals from 4 or the members of the RCEP which is now the largest trading bloc in the world.

The EU have maintained the fishing rights bar a small percentage loss for the next 5 years and ensured the sanctity of the single market.

The U.K. have small extensions on most of the financial services parts but the EU have full control on whether they offer equivalence, albeit I read that this loss would only account for around 20% of U.K. financial services?

Will be interesting to see who ends up right.

It isn't a zero sum game when comparing pre- and post-Brexit. Whenever you introduce frictions into any relationship then you introduce inefficiencies. If what was there before was a 100-slice full pie in terms of EU-UK trade, then after the split you maybe have a partial 95-slice pie overall. If the pre split was 50-slices each and now the split is 48-UK/47-EU then they aren't better off. In reality, it is likely to go more like 46-UK 49-EU.

HalfAndHalf

Donald Trump wrote: »

It isn't a zero sum game when comparing pre- and post-Brexit. Whenever you introduce frictions into any relationship then you introduce inefficiencies. If what was there before was a 100-slice full pie in terms of EU-UK trade, then after the split you maybe have a partial 95-slice pie overall. If the pre split was 50-slices each and now the split is 48-UK/47-EU then they aren't better off. In reality, it is likely to go more like 46-UK 49-EU.

Agreed, the relationship between the EU and U.K. will now be worse, this is a guarantee.

What I’m saying is depending on what the U.K. manage to do moving forwards will dictate whether their economy flourishes or diminishes. This is what is yet to be seen.

They could end up negotiating worse deals than the rollovers they’ve currently got, or they could get better ones.

They could end up joining RCEP and absolutely fly it. That’s been touted as their best ambition.

None of these things are known or guaranteed, that’s why I said it’s funny seeing all the different posts saying they’re gonna be begging the world for handouts etc.

It will be very interesting what happens next, we all know Boris is a complete chancer, but that Rishi has a bit about himself....

Covid has the world running huge deficits at the moment so this could likely shield them from what outwardly would look like a big drop in productivity etc.

looksee

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

I’ve been a long time lurker on here and it’s been funny to read both sides, you’ve got the real Brit haters who keep saying it’s a disaster for the U.K. and they’re stuck and lost and all that, then the ones that don’t hate the Brits saying that they’re won X and got Y.....

The first error in your post is talking about Brit haters saying it is a disaster for the UK. They are not on the whole Brit haters, but Brexit haters, and that is a rational enough stance - the whole event was undemocratic and based on lies.

I have been reading more than posting, but I am entirely on the side of the Brexit 'haters' - and I am a Brit. Long left the UK, granted, but nontheless it is my background, and I am utterly and totally disgusted at the brainlessness that has resulted in this stupid situation.

Discuss Brexit certainly, have your opinions and make your arguments, but stop with the 'Brit haters', it is just not true.

sam1986uk

Makes me laugh hearing these young Brits whinging about their "freedom of movement" stolen from them and how their lives are destroyed.

The vast vast majority of us take a 2 week holiday on the continent and maybe a few city breaks threw in throughout the year.
The retirees/pensioners will be provisioned for by the individual states. Just as they do in Thailand.
Brits working on the continent generally speaking have high-end professional jobs that would qualify them for work visas anyway. We have garbage language skills.

I suppose we should spare a thought for those poor folks that dreamed of handing out leaflets in Magaluf or Kavos. Oh well. ��

HalfAndHalf

looksee wrote: »

The first error in your post is talking about Brit haters saying it is a disaster for the UK. They are not on the whole Brit haters, but Brexit haters, and that is a rational enough stance - the whole event was undemocratic and based on lies.

I have been reading more than posting, but I am entirely on the side of the Brexit 'haters' - and I am a Brit. Long left the UK, granted, but nontheless it is my background, and I am utterly and totally disgusted at the brainlessness that has resulted in this stupid situation.

Discuss Brexit certainly, have your opinions and make your arguments, but stop with the 'Brit haters', it is just not true.

Sorry but I’ve seen some quite vitriolic posts that very much come across as sheer glee at the hope that the Brits will be decimated, Scotland will gain independence and then a UI and leave England as a shell out on the scrap heap.....how else should I describe that?

But you miss the point of my post, and that is that nobody can know how this will all play out in the future.

Thanks

moon2

sam1986uk wrote: »

Makes me laugh hearing these young Brits whinging about their "freedom of movement" stolen from them and how their lives are destroyed.

Freedom of movement has meant a lot to me, and the large proportion of my friends who emigrated (permanently or temporarily) after the previoue recession. It was a lot better than being unemployed.

Just because you have no experience of the benefits doesn't mean there are none. It was a literal life changer for people who would otherwise have been under- or un-employed were they to have remained in Ireland.

While we would all have qualified for visas, the freedom we were afforded meant we didn't have to jump through lengthy and expensive hoops to apply for jobs. Applying abroad was as easy as applying locally!

breezy1985

sam1986uk wrote: »

Makes me laugh hearing these young Brits whinging about their "freedom of movement" stolen from them and how their lives are destroyed.

The vast vast majority of us take a 2 week holiday on the continent and maybe a few city breaks threw in throughout the year.
The retirees/pensioners will be provisioned for by the individual states. Just as they do in Thailand.
Brits working on the continent generally speaking have high-end professional jobs that would qualify them for work visas anyway. We have garbage language skills.

I suppose we should spare a thought for those poor folks that dreamed of handing out leaflets in Magaluf or Kavos. Oh well. ��

What a sad bitter little post.
Why should young British people not complain about something happening to their country that they think is wrong. The young British people I was working with the morning after the vote did not whinge about the loss of their own movement but where thinking mostly of their EU work mates who they were to ashamed to look in the eye after what England had just done.

I notice you use the term "on the continent" which sums up the UK attitude to Europe as if England is some how not "on the continent" of Europe

sam1986uk

moon2 wrote: »

Freedom of movement has meant a lot to me, and the large proportion of my friends who emigrated (permanently or temporarily) after the previoue recession. It was a lot better than being unemployed.

Just because you have no experience of the benefits doesn't mean there are none. It was a literal life changer for people who would otherwise have been under- or un-employed were they to have remained in Ireland.

While we would all have qualified for visas, the freedom we were afforded meant we didn't have to jump through lengthy and expensive hoops to apply for jobs. Applying abroad was as easy as applying locally!

Oh, give me a break. May I ask what these jobs were that destitute Irish folk were flocking to in their droves? I'd love to know.

99% of British / Irish do not benefit from freedom of movement because:

a) our countries are wealthy with relatively high wages. It's best to stay here.
b) We're absolute GARBAGE at languages.

I'm from Scotland, not England.