Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

yagan

atilladehun wrote: »

Keeping the status quo is best of both worlds. Creating a 32 county Ireland loses one of the most unique economic benefits any country has in the world.

NI isn't a backdoor into the UK. Plus it's not very attractive for multinationals if time spent there doesn't count towards EU citizenship for its staff.

The best deal for NI is expiration.

GazzaL

salonfire wrote: »

There's nothing in this deal to prevent other, less services focused countries following the UK out the door.

Free travel and free export to the EU to continue.

The beginning of the break up of the EU.

Just on the point of "free export", while there are no tariffs, there will be a cost associated with the new customs procedures and associated transport delays. It's an important point, and it does create a barrier to trade, particularly for SMEs.

atilladehun

yagan wrote: »

NI isn't a backdoor into the UK. Plus it's not very attractive for multinationals if time spent there doesn't count towards EU citizenship for its staff.

The best deal for NI is expiration.

But does it create the necessity to maintain the delicate set of agreements that puts Ireland in the unique position of access to two markets that no one else has?

moon2

atilladehun wrote: »

But does it create the necessity to maintain the delicate set of agreements that puts Ireland in the unique position of access to two markets that no one else has?

But does Ireland have any special access to both markets? There's still a customs border between the UK and the Republic, so where's the benefit you're describing going to appear from?

RobMc59

GazzaL wrote: »

Just on the point of "free export", while there are no tariffs, there will be a cost associated with the new customs procedures and associated transport delays. It's an important point, and it does create a barrier to trade, particularly for SMEs.

The UK will be saving money now it won't have to increase fishery protection which would have been required in the event of no deal.

RobMc59

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK will be saving money now it won't have to increase fishery protection which would have been required in the event of no deal.

The UK will be saving money?

mrunsure

Deleted User wrote: »

The UK will be saving money?

£350 million a week. I saw that message on a bus once.

An Ciarraioch

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK will be saving money now it won't have to increase fishery protection which would have been required in the event of no deal.

More that it won't be incurring additional costs, rather than economising.

Jizique

yagan wrote: »

Yip, services are 80% of the UK economy and there's no deal on them. The EU can pick and choose what it likes to favour itself.

Plus the customs checks on those goods can suspend trade at any moment and there's zero the UK could do about it. The Brexiters have made the UK an EU vassal state.

I am totally anti-Brexit, but this point about services which is constantly made, somewhat overeggs the pudding; yes, services is 80% of the economy, but this is the same for all major developed economies, and most services are not and never will be tradeable.
Think of hairdressers - does it matter if this service is included in the FTA? Of course not.
Restaurants? No, these services are provided locally; tourism? Same.
Biggest employer in the UK? NHS. Will anyone in the NHS lose a job, suffer a salary cut? No. Teaching? The same. Supermarkets, where Tesco with its 200k employees is 10x JaguarLandRover and 20x Nissan and Toyota combined, no. Will tourism and restaurants/bars be impacted by leaving; not really.
It is the manufacturing companies esp those in pan-EU supply chains that will get hammered, not the services sector, which is largely domestic in nature.

Jizique

An Claidheamh wrote: »

There is no benefit, nor ever was, of having a British enclave on the island, except for the funeral business.

I agree though, NI is badly run - DUP are all hate, the COVID crisis has shown their incompetence, even FFG cannot deny it is simply dangerous for the Republic not to be all one island

Is there not a problem for businesses in the north that rely on low paid workers (poultry); are the not included in the pay cap that the UK has included in its legislation on immigration?
Which reminds me, what happens to all the workers in the UK hospitality, home care, food processing etc industries from next week, given that they earn below the salary level set for immigrants?

yagan

atilladehun wrote: »

But does it create the necessity to maintain the delicate set of agreements that puts Ireland in the unique position of access to two markets that no one else has?

Ireland isn't in two markets via the Irish Sea customs border.

As I said, Northern Ireland isn't a backdoor into the UK or the EU.

Northern Ireland denizens have retained the best personal options of EU membership and NI businesses retain customs free access to the largest trade bloc in the world, but have a customs border with a GB that's reducing trade across the Irish Sea.

eire4

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Given your hot takes on Brexit, forgive me if I take anything you say on Irish unity with fistfuls of salt.

In the event of a referendum, your only job is to vote no.

I will be voting yes when that time comes. Makes sense for us to have everything working on the same basis throughout the country. Will be better for everyone in the long run IMHO.

yagan

Jizique wrote: »

I am totally anti-Brexit, but this point about services which is constantly made, somewhat overeggs the pudding; yes, services is 80% of the economy, but this is the same for all major developed economies, and most services are not and never will be tradeable.
Think of hairdressers - does it matter if this service is included in the FTA? Of course not.
Restaurants? No, these services are provided locally; tourism? Same.
Biggest employer in the UK? NHS. Will anyone in the NHS lose a job, suffer a salary cut? No. Teaching? The same. Supermarkets, where Tesco with its 200k employees is 10x JaguarLandRover and 20x Nissan and Toyota combined, no. Will tourism and restaurants/bars be impacted by leaving; not really.
It is the manufacturing companies esp those in pan-EU supply chains that will get hammered, not the services sector, which is largely domestic in nature.

Just as an example 40% of the EU TV is UK produced, now those producers are restricted to the UK unless they commit to buying content from individual EU countries they want to sell to.

Same will apply to financial services, which is why so many banks that had their EU bases in London have set up new bases in Dublin, Frankfort, Paris and Amsterdam since 2016.

On the matter of losing jobs you also have to factor in that NHS staff and many other workers across Britain are becoming increasingly dependent on food banks since 2008. There are now more food banks in England than there are McDonalds. I don't think it's a stretch to speculate that the rise of poverty amongst the workforce added to the anti immigrant sentiment leading up to the Brexit vote.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK will be saving money now it won't have to increase fishery protection which would have been required in the event of no deal.

Yay! They can spend the money instead on "supporting Britain's foreign policy objectives" with that aircraft carrier in the South China Sea! :pac:

CelticRambler

Jizique wrote: »

I am totally anti-Brexit, but this point about services which is constantly made, somewhat overeggs the pudding; yes, services is 80% of the economy, but this is the same for all major developed economies, and most services are not and never will be tradeable.

To a certain extent, this is true, but - and this is an important "but" - the export of services is of far more importance to the UK than it is to any one EU country, or the bloc as a whole.

Now that the dust is beginning to settle, I am convinced that the EU has aimed for and achieved a "Switzerland minus" deal, i.e.
- pretty much unfettered access (tariff- and quota-free) to the UK for EU-produced goods, which is a major win for major producers, and not much inconvenience for minor players* as they were never really active in the UK market;
- the ability to cherry pick what services it allows the UK to supply, presumably with the intention of accelerating the EU's provision of those same services in due course;
- effective freedom of movement for EU students and graduates, simply because the UK desperately needs our talent - but with no obligation on the EU to reciprocate;
- we get to keep fishing, and keep most of the fish (or value thereof);
- Brexit is "done" subject to ratification of the agreement on both sides, but should no longer require any great investment of time or energy trying to placate a troublesome member;
- the UK agrees to a de facto loss of autonomy in respect of the regulation of manufactured goods and agriculture (similar to Switzerland) and perpetual alignment with the EU. Yes, on paper, they have "regained" their sovereignty and have the right to diverge ... but in practice, this will result in costly sanctions (as it does for Switzerland); and (unlike for Switzerland) with this agreement the EU has managed to bundle all its threats/sanctions into one working document instead of 200 100 12.

* I refer to "minor players" in the context of the EU as a whole; Irish "minor players" will be disproportionately affected by the extra red tape, but (a) that's better than no access at all; and (b) it's not the EU's fault if Irish businesses chose to hitch their wagon to the most temperamental member, when there are 26 other markets they could have been trading in.

On this last point, I see from the discussion on other threads that there are still an awful lot of boards.ies (Irish, presumably) who are struggling as much as the British with what it means for GB to be a third country. So many breathing a sigh of relief - or still agonising - over VAT and lack of customs duties on their Amazon orders, but no indication that any of them realise that they'll have an obligation to choose the red or the green channel coming back from a shopping trip to England.

I wonder if Customs in Dublin Airport will take advantage of the reduced number of flights from the UK to educate passengers on the UK's new status as "not eligible for the blue channel?" I also wonder how many will get caught out by making a Ryanair connection in Stansted to get to an EU destination, and being barked at by some continental customs officer for being in the wrong queue?

embraer170

mrunsure wrote: »

Are there any EU universities with affordable tuition fees for non-EU students (say less than 10000 euros a year)? I remember German universities were free for everyone in the world but I think that stopped recently. That would be a way for British students to get back into the EU.

A majority of German university courses are pretty much free for everyone including non-EU students (even for many degrees delivered in English). There is a registration fee of about €250 per semester but that covers free public transport in the region.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yay! They can spend the money instead on "supporting Britain's foreign policy objectives" with that aircraft carrier in the South China Sea! :pac:

Indeed,the EU can concentrate on being the biggest trading block in the universe whilst the five eyes continue to be the thorn in the side of China's aggressive expansion.

yagan

RobMc59 wrote: »

Indeed,the EU can concentrate on being the biggest trading block in the universe whilst the five eyes continue to be the thorn in the side of China's aggressive expansion.

I would have thought London's priority would be reducing the need for Unicef feeding British subjects.

schmoo2k

atilladehun wrote: »

So am I right in saying UK gained in conceptually tangible areas such as trade agreements but completely lost out on what matters in the financial services sector. Joe public doesn't really understand it but in reality drives the economy?

Boris does what Boris does, pushes the horror down the road to survive another day.

The UK (and the EU) have gained nothing, its an exercise in mitigating the losses (and the when)...

Capt'n Midnight

yagan wrote: »

Just as an example 40% of the EU TV is UK produced, now those producers are restricted to the UK unless they commit to buying content from individual EU countries they want to sell to.

I'm going to need some links on that

AFAIK it's UMC in Poland and Vestel in Turkey who are the big TV makers inside the Customs Union. Between them they most of the brand name TV's apart from the top end Japanese and Korean ones and the bottom end Chinese ones. China also do a few good ones like Hisense and low end Japanese TV's could be made by anyone these days.



Nevermind I found a link , Cello Electronics is the only LED TV brand that still manufactures products in the UK. They use the Ferguson brand.



If you mean TV content the French got a wee detail added to the treaty which means UK operations now need physical presence in the EU, that and travel visas for work will nibble into the UK's margins. Also Netflix & co are making more local content. Like games development, TV production can follow the tax breaks.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

Indeed,the EU can concentrate on being the biggest trading block in the universe whilst the five eyes continue to be the thorn in the side of China's aggressive expansion.

The "five eyes" alliance is only one of several international surveillance cooperations, and there's damn-all an aircraft carrier can do to stop the Russians or the Israelis from hacking an industrial complex or government servers to cause political and economic damage that is considerably more widespread than some gung-ho Prime Minister's bombing of a target somewhere in the Middle or Far East.

This kind of 19th Century militaristic thinking is what's fuelled the Brexit rhetoric, and has absolutely no place in the 21st Century. Being part of a successful trading bloc, however, is a great way to protect against aggression from other parties, not just for the member states, but also for those in the bloc's economic orbit.

schmoo2k

eire4 wrote: »

I will be voting yes when that time comes. Makes sense for us to have everything working on the same basis throughout the country. Will be better for everyone in the long run IMHO.

What referendum (Ireland leaving the EU)?

Widdensushi

schmoo2k wrote: »

What referendum (Ireland leaving the EU)?

Obviously not a runner at the moment, I wonder with tariff free arrangements and an arrangement where we gradually get big quotas and control of our own waters over time what the projections would be???

Firefox11

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I'm going to need some links on that

AFAIK it's UMC in Poland and Vestel in Turkey who are the big TV makers inside the Customs Union. Between them they most of the brand name TV's apart from the top end Japanese and Korean ones and the bottom end Chinese ones. China also do a few good ones like Hisense and low end Japanese TV's could be made by anyone these days.



Nevermind I found a link , Cello Electronics is the only LED TV brand that still manufactures products in the UK. They use the Ferguson brand.



If you mean TV content the French got a wee detail added to the treaty which means UK operations now need physical presence in the EU, that and travel visas for work will nibble into the UK's margins. Also Netflix & co are making more local content. Like games development, TV production can follow the tax breaks.

SKY Ireland to loose 40 Channels after Brexit.

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/sky-ireland-lose-channels-brexit-19515641

Judging from the list of channels it's no great loss.

schmoo2k

Ironic British Airways will have restricted pickup rights in the UK now (it being a European Company).

breezy1985

Jizique wrote: »

I am totally anti-Brexit, but this point about services which is constantly made, somewhat overeggs the pudding; yes, services is 80% of the economy, but this is the same for all major developed economies, and most services are not and never will be tradeable.
Think of hairdressers - does it matter if this service is included in the FTA? Of course not.
Restaurants? No, these services are provided locally; tourism? Same.
Biggest employer in the UK? NHS. Will anyone in the NHS lose a job, suffer a salary cut? No. Teaching? The same. Supermarkets, where Tesco with its 200k employees is 10x JaguarLandRover and 20x Nissan and Toyota combined, no. Will tourism and restaurants/bars be impacted by leaving; not really.
It is the manufacturing companies esp those in pan-EU supply chains that will get hammered, not the services sector, which is largely domestic in nature.

I know first hand that hospitality will be massively impacted by Brexit. There is a big and growing staff shortage in London currently in hospitality. Europeans are the backbone of hospitality and are leaving a hole that won't be filled easy. Most English people won't do the work and non Europeans don't know how to do it

The Raging Bile Duct

schmoo2k wrote: »

What referendum (Ireland leaving the EU)?

I think he's talking about a referendum for Irish reunification.

Lumen

breezy1985 wrote: »

I know first hand that hospitality will be massively impacted by Brexit. There is a big and growing staff shortage in London currently in hospitality. Europeans are the backbone of hospitality and are leaving a hole that won't be filled easy. Most English people won't do the work and non Europeans don't know how to do it

English will do the work if it pays well. Wage inflation is likely. This could be a good thing for efficiency/productivity.

Or maybe the tourists will go elsewhere and the economy will shrink.

Or maybe both.

schmoo2k

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

I think he's talking about a referendum for Irish reunification.

Ahh - he must be from NI / UK so?

CelticRambler

Lumen wrote: »

English will do the work if it pays well. Wage inflation is likely. This could be a good thing for efficiency/productivity.

Recent history (despite wage rises) suggest that the English will not do the work. All the jobs data and employers' reports carry the same info - jobs in manual labour sector (hospitality, fruit&veg picking, meat processing, non-nursing carers in hospitals and care homes, etc) do not attract English applicants, and of those who do turn up for a first week's work, very very very few come back for second week.

What's going to change that?