How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

Junkyard Tom

I'd tend to agree with Brian Rowan's take that the next time Stormont falls it closes for good. Rowan also says that if Stormont closes we'll likely be in a post GFA phase and looking at an Irish solution to the British Question.

Bobeagleburger

So Foster is seen as too liberal from within the DUP..Yikes.

FrancieBrady

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I'd tend to agree with Brian Rowan's take that the next time Stormont falls it closes for good. Rowan also says that if Stormont closes we'll likely be in a post GFA phase and looking at an Irish solution to the British Question.

Any link to that Tom?

Strategically, it is like something the Unionists would allow happen out of stubbornness and inability to avoid flying into the flames.

Junkyard Tom

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Any link to that Tom?

https://youtu.be/moqPgdKzjBI?t=717

jh79

Another poll on a UI. Only 22% would pay for a UI

https://m.independent.ie/irishnews/centenaries/centenarypoll/majority-favour-a-united-ireland-but-just-22pc-would-pay-for-it-40375875.html

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Another poll on a UI. Only 22% would pay for a UI

https://m.independent.ie/irishnews/centenaries/centenarypoll/majority-favour-a-united-ireland-but-just-22pc-would-pay-for-it-40375875.html

Incredible results with no concrete proposal or plan on the table.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Incredible results with no concrete proposal or plan on the table.

Dunno about that. Any concrete proposal will just confirm the high cost and drive voters away.

The Germans are still paying up to 5% in tax 30 years on.

The results for NI are lower again i think.

downcow

jh79 wrote: »

Another poll on a UI. Only 22% would pay for a UI

https://m.independent.ie/irishnews/centenaries/centenarypoll/majority-favour-a-united-ireland-but-just-22pc-would-pay-for-it-40375875.html

Very reassuring poll for unionism.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Dunno about that. Any concrete proposal will just confirm the high cost and drive voters away.

The Germans are still paying up to 5% in tax 30 years on.

The results for NI are lower again i think.

44% in the north for a border poll 39% against and a 66% majority for a border poll in the south, tells me the train is approaching fast and we'll see a proposal taking shape soon.

Couched as an investment I think those numbers will change too.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

44% in the north for a border poll 39% against and a 66% majority for a border poll in the south, tells me the train is approaching fast and we'll see a proposal taking shape soon.

Couched as an investment I think those numbers will change too.

Only 35% in favour in the North. On a downward trend. Not even close to likely to pass.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Only 35% in favour in the North. On a downward trend. Not even close to likely to pass.

There is no proposal or plan in place.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There is no proposal or plan in place.

Any proposal will have the opposite effect in each country. To convince the North, Ireland will have to pay and to convince the South NI will take the hit.

droidman123

jh79 wrote: »

Dunno about that. Any concrete proposal will just confirm the high cost and drive voters away.

The Germans are still paying up to 5% in tax 30 years on.

The results for NI are lower again i think.

You cannot really compare german reunification with irish reunification.theres a third party involved in ireland,namely britain.when the six occupied counties of my country are finally reunited with the rest of ireland i would expect britain to be footing some of the bill,as they were the agitators of partition.call it compensation or whatever,but when the day comes it will be time for them to pay the piper.there are still too many details,financial and many other things to be ironed out before people have full details of what they would be voting for.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

44% in the north for a border poll 39% against and a 66% majority for a border poll in the south, tells me the train is approaching fast and we'll see a proposal taking shape soon.

Couched as an investment I think those numbers will change too.

I am borderline thinking we should have a border poll to put this to bed for a while but I will 100% vote against a UI. So numbers wanting a border poll are completely irrelevant. They have no bearing on either the reason sos having a poll or the result.
Just interesting that you cling unto an irrelevance. Mustn’t be much in it for you

downcow

droidman123 wrote: »

You cannot really compare german reunification with irish reunification.theres a third party involved in ireland,namely britain.when the six occupied counties of my country are finally reunited with the rest of ireland i would expect britain to be footing some of the bill,as they were the agitators of partition.call it compensation or whatever,but when the day comes it will be time for them to pay the piper.there are still too many details,financial and many other things to be ironed out before people have full details of what they would be voting for.

Did the countries that carved up Germany (even more recently) queue up to help pay?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I am borderline thinking we should have a border poll to put this to bed for a while but I will 100% vote against a UI. So numbers wanting a border poll are completely irrelevant. They have no bearing on either the reason sos having a poll or the result.
Just interesting that you cling unto an irrelevance. Mustn’t be much in it for you

There won't be a border poll because it is irrelevant to you???

The numbers wanting a poll will spur on the formation of a plan or proposal. It would be criminal for our government not to heed those figures.

droidman123

downcow wrote: »

Did the countries that carved up Germany (even more recently) queue up to help pay?

Hypotethical question,if there was a border poll and it passed for a ui, in your opinion would britain be liable to foot some of the.costs?

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There won't be a border poll because it is irrelevant to you???

The numbers wanting a poll will spur on the formation of a plan or proposal. It would be criminal for our government not to heed those figures.

I didn’t say a border poll was irrelevant. I said the numbers wanting it are irrelevant. The reasons for a border poll are crystal clear and they have nothing to do with the numbers wanting it. But sure you cling on to that of plot helps you

jh79

droidman123 wrote: »

You cannot really compare german reunification with irish reunification.theres a third party involved in ireland,namely britain.when the six occupied counties of my country are finally reunited with the rest of ireland i would expect britain to be footing some of the bill,as they were the agitators of partition.call it compensation or whatever,but when the day comes it will be time for them to pay the piper.there are still too many details,financial and many other things to be ironed out before people have full details of what they would be voting for.

The Hubner paper promoted by SF uses German unification as its basis.

downcow

droidman123 wrote: »

Hypotethical question,if there was a border poll and it passed for a ui, in your opinion would britain be liable to foot some of the.costs?

No.
U.K. has committed £billions annually. It would be Roi tax payers turn and of course ourselves

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

I didn’t say a border poll was irrelevant. I said the numbers wanting it are irrelevant. The reasons for a border poll are crystal clear and they have nothing to do with the numbers wanting it. But sure you cling on to that of plot helps you

The SoS can call a poll for any reason he/she wants. Your courts decided that.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

The Hubner paper promoted by SF uses German unification as its basis.

The 'relevant' parts of it.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The 'relevant' parts of it.

The cost is very relevant given the polls

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

The cost is very relevant given the polls

Undeniable. The benefits and how the cost will be met is also relevant. See the Scottish referendum, once it's White Paper was published the numbers changed dramatically.

Question is for Dublin and the SoS, how long can they go on not putting this question to the test before they are blatantly breaking the spirit of the GFA.
On those figures...not much longer in my opinion.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Undeniable. The benefits and how the cost will be met is also relevant. See the Scottish referendum, once it's White Paper was published the numbers changed dramatically.

Question is for Dublin and the SoS, how long can they go on not putting this question to the test before they are blatantly breaking the spirit of the GFA.
On those figures...not much longer in my opinion.

The GFA says if likely to pass so not having one is adhering to the GFA.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

The GFA says if likely to pass so not having one is adhering to the GFA.

The SoS, according to British courts, can decide on the outcome of two flies racing up a window, if he/she wants. And is answerable to no-one in that he/she does not have to provide evidence for why they made the decision.

He/she could think as I do, that a firm proposal is likely to get it over the line.

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The SoS, according to British courts, can decide on the outcome of two flies racing up a window, if he/she wants. And is answerable to no-one in that he/she does not have to provide evidence for why they made the decision.

He/she could think as I do, that a firm proposal is likely to get it over the line.

Point is by not having one he is faithful to the terms of the GFA as there is no evidence it is likely to pass.

FrancieBrady

jh79 wrote: »

Point is by not having one he is faithful to the terms of the GFA as there is no evidence it is likely to pass.

Of course, undeniable.

But the figures wanting this put to the test won't be ignored. It would be criminal to do that in light of Brexit.

downcow

Another interesting take on the poll.
Seems some here who have been slaying me need to pull their horns in
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/the-centenary/centenary-poll-suggests-only-29-of-people-in-northern-ireland-consider-irish-language-to-be-important-40375679.html

jh79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Of course, undeniable.

But the figures wanting this put to the test won't be ignored. It would be criminal to do that in light of Brexit.

But how vocal will people be given they don't actually want a change?