Summer 2020 - General Discussion

appledrop

So our staycation continues, I thank our lucky stars we decided to stay on east coast + not head west.



Rain today alright but hopefully tomorrow + Friday will be nice here!

appledrop

I posted what I thought were very depressing stats for July on forecast thread hoping I'd be way out but unfortunately not miles wrong apart from my Max temperature which was way too optimistic!


Gonzo, Syranbryen + pauldry I noticed you were all near enough to me at lower end of table with out lower than average temperatures looks like not far wrong unfortunately!

Gaoth Laidir

The Valentia sounding shows how horrible a setup it was/is. Fully saturated all the way up above 500 hPa, with precipitate water of 42.5 mm.

Clonmel1000

Another ****ty gloomy dull cool morning here. You’d be sick tired of it now.

km79

Still raining in south mayo

Clonmel1000

It’s probably worth adding that it’s also breezy and cool also.

Xenji

Some very heavy downpours in Castlebar this morning, Newport looks like it will now have its second wettest recorded July and may break 200mm by midnight.

Oscar Bravo

Major flooding in Kenmare overnight https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0730/1156405-flooding/

pauldry

Wet and breezy but its not cool. Its 18c here.

Hooter23

Looks bad out now...but I think we could be surpised later by how nice the day might turn out for some places

namloc1980

This satellite image is depressing:

sryanbruen

54.5mm at Valentia Observatory yesterday is a new July record beating 43.0mm on 31 July 2009 (midnight to midnight).

Kutebride

Dry and breezy Wicklow hills.

Donegal Storm

Miserable dark, wet, winter like day in Donegal, lights on

Temperate is supposedly 18C but it's too crap to go outside so can't confirm if it feels mild

appledrop

I thought today was meant to be nice day?


Windy here in Wicklow but grand once you have a coat.


Rained this morning but dry now.


Can't believe those pictures of Kerry last night!

pauldry

At 8pm this evening it will be a nice day in donegal.

My phone says Sligo and Donegal might see the sun at 8pm and it will be 20c

Might try a late evening swim

pauldry

sryanbruen wrote: »

54.5mm at Valentia Observatory yesterday is a new July record beating 43.0mm on 31 July 2009 (midnight to midnight).

Actually 66mm up to 6am this morning

Oneiric 3

Still a long way off but charts firming up on something a bit more seasonal and settled as we head into the 2nd week of August as an Azores ridge attempts to build in over the greater north European region around the 7th.



Flow still unnervingly from a west or south-westerly corner but hopefully a bit more sunshine to be had if it does to pass to help us store up some Vit D before the Winter sets in.

SleetAndSnow

35.1mm from that spell up to 8am this morning in Cork City. That really pushed up our monthly figure too 92mm, highest for the last few years according to M.E (from 2017).

Cloudy but dry start to the day here. Currently about 16.7 degrees

Oneiric 3

pauldry wrote: »

Any year Arctic goes low this century has been a cack Summer.

2012 Rotten cold wet lowest Arctic extent
2019 Not too bad but cold a lot and very wet August 2nd lowest extent Arctic
2007 Pig of a Summer 3rd lowest Arctic
2011 Cool Summer low Arctic
2020? Worst Summer? Lowest Arctic sea ice extent?

There must be a connection

I recall posting a chart years back that did show a connection (or a correlation at least) between abnormally low sea ice extent and grim summers in Ireland.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Still a long way off but charts firming up on something a bit more seasonal and settled as we head into the 2nd week of August as an Azores ridge attempts to build in over the greater north European region around the 7th.

Flow still unnervingly from a west or south-westerly corner but hopefully a bit more sunshine to be had if it does to pass to help us store up some Vit D before the Winter sets in.

I suspect the usual Atlantic tropical cyclones (Tropical Storm Isaias right now) will throw a spanner in the works by getting caught up in the jet and the expected pattern change from the Nina-like atmospheric conditions we've had this summer to now. It's all a growing scenario for now than anything concrete.

The placement of that ridge always vital if we get a push from the continent via southeasterlies or the tropical Atlantic via usual moisture-layered humid muck southwesterlies. The former is so rare in August these days that you would probably place your bets on the latter happening. History has to break at some point though right.

I must admit saying the above, it'd be so odd to go from such a cool/dull/wet July to a warm August. Can't say I recall that happening too often.

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1288804101816557568?s=20

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1288805532762091521?s=20

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

I suspect the usual Atlantic tropical cyclones (Tropical Storm Isaias right now) will throw a spanner in the works by getting caught up in the jet and the expected pattern change from the Nina-like atmospheric conditions we've had this summer to now. It's all a growing scenario for now than anything concrete.

The placement of that ridge always vital if we get a push from the continent via southeasterlies or the tropical Atlantic via usual moisture-layered humid muck southwesterlies. The former is so rare in August these days that you would probably place your bets on the latter happening. History has to break at some point though right.

I must admit saying the above, it'd be so odd to go from such a cool/dull/wet July to a warm August. Can't say I recall that happening too often.

I'd not rule out this scenario you paint here at all, though one thing I have noticed during my lifetime is that an increase in tropical activity over the SW north Atlantic can often help trigger ridge like weather over NW Europe. Perhaps just one of the reasons why the early/mid-September period can often be very settled here? as this seems to be around the time that tropical activity in that region peaks.

Donegal Storm

Today is turning into yet another candidate for worst day of the season, this summer just keeps on giving

Feel sorry for anyone who's used up annual leave to be stuck in a holiday home around here. At least the Spanish hotel owners can rest easy that "staycationing" will never be a threat to their business

Gonzo

I was expecting a somewhat nicer morning here in Meath but it's grey, damp with spots of drizzle and very wet after last night's very heavy rain. The monthly rainfall total is now well in excess of 100mm making this one of the wettest July's I've experienced.

Oneiric 3

Looking at this morning's operatianal run, it is more easy to see where Syran is coming from: (500hpa flow for between the 5th and 9th August)



Broadly westerly flow that could even be enhanced over NW Europe if that ridge over western Europe does not develop around the time shown in the chart; but even it if were too, we in the W and NW would still be biting our nails given the direction of that upper flow. More runs and much tweeking needed to get a better grasp of this.

Oneiric 3

Donegal Storm wrote: »

. At least the Spanish hotel owners can rest easy that "staycationing"

I think anyone who uses the term 'staycation' should be publicly flogged. I'll give you a free pass though...... this time.

Oneiric 3

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think anyone who uses the term 'staycation' should be publicly flogged. I'll give you a free pass though...... this time.

I'd agree with that, though not before the person who used the word 'retarded' here yesterday.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Looking at this morning's operatianal run, it is more easy to see where Syran is coming from: (500hpa flow for between the 5th and 9th August)

Broadly westerly flow that could even be enhanced over NW Europe if that ridge over western Europe does not develop around the time shown in the chart; but even it if were too, we in the W and NW would still be biting our nails given the direction of that upper flow. More runs and much tweeking needed to get a better grasp of this.

Yeah, this is a far more likely scenario compared to say the extreme one put out by the ECM last night. Looks more of the plumey type that would no doubt be conducive to big pushes of heat from the Iberian plateau to England whilst Ireland is the donkey with a trough of low pressure pinned on top.

We shall continue to monitor anyway.

appledrop

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Today is turning into yet another candidate for worst day of the season, this summer just keeps on giving

Feel sorry for anyone who's used up annual leave to be stuck in a holiday home around here. At least the Spanish hotel owners can rest easy that "staycationing" will never be a threat to their business

Were on our 'staycation' this week.


Thank f**k we stayed on east coast + as we were considering Cork/Kerry. Actually turning out better than expected as on we are dressed say for Easter rather than summer with light raincoats each day. Also helps that we decided against a week in say holiday home say at coast in Kerry + went instead for daytrips from home along with nice hotel so have had great fun in pool on wet days.