Summer 2020 - General Discussion

Gonzo

clouded over now after a fantastic morning and early afternoon. Reached 20C earlier, got very close to 21C. back to 19C now.

seamusk84

Starting to spit down in Celbridge now, after what can only be described as a glorious first half of the day!

Would love to hear and see some thunder and lightening this afternoon for a change...I assume there is no chance on the east coast?

alentejo

Was hoping that Dublin would escape showers this afternoon noon, however seems like a line of rain emerging in Irish sea giving another dumping of rain. Now need change plans. Very frustrating

appledrop

What a glorious summer morning we had at the zoo! It was amazing to see all families out enjoying the good weather + seeing all the animals.

Met Eireann had predicted rain showers in morning. Thankfully they were wrong as usual! Clouded over now + spitting a bit of rain.

Gonzo

a day of two halves today in Meath, up to 2pm it was beautiful, warm and mostly sunny. Since 2pm the clouds have rolled back in and it's been spitting rain every now and then and temperatures have dipped from a high of 20C around 1pm to just 16C now. The warmth has been pushed north and west.

Should be back to fairly warm conditions tomorrow.

Donegal Storm

Beautiful summers day up here, could see some cb's in the distance to the south all afternoon but it stayed sunny all day here

nacho libre

It looks like tomorrow is the last chance for thunderstorms in some areas that missed out today. It'll be cloudy a lot of the times from Tuesday onwards in the west, but with little in the way of rain. Also, if the latest ecm is to be believed, the Atlantic won't be coming back next weekend

Farmer2017

nacho libre wrote: »

It looks like tomorrow is the last chance for thunderstorms in some areas that missed out today. It'll be cloudy a lot of the times from Tuesday onwards in the west, but with little in the way of rain. Also, if the latest ecm is to be believed, the Atlantic won't be coming back next weekend

Ffs what have ya to do to get rain

nacho libre

Farmer2017 wrote: »

Ffs what have ya to do to get rain

You may get some heavy downpours tomorrow in the midlands. Also the GFS is showing it to be unsettled next weekend, so the ECM may turn out to be wrong.

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

You may get some heavy downpours tomorrow in the midlands. Also the GFS is showing it to be unsettled next weekend, so the ECM may turn out to be wrong.

The guess work goes on. It really is a very frustrating time for model watching. Today was supposed to be fairly unsettled with plenty of showers across the midlands, west and north.

Midlands has stayed completely dry again today and even in the west there has only been a few showers with many western parts dry as well.

Tomorrows rainfall chart isn't as unsettled looking as what was being shown for us today.



This charts certainly make the rainfall areas look more intense than they actually are. At a guess I think most eastern, southern and midland areas may stay dry tomorrow with the bulk of the showers in the north-western third of the country.



Tuesday looks unsettled across the east and south, again these are showers and many areas could miss out again. There really is no guarantee where will stay dry all week and where will see decent falls of rain over the next 2 days.

Looks largely dry from Wednesday and then next weekends band of rain from the west looks rather light and flipsy and it breaks up as it crosses the country.

Rebelbrowser

Forecast was way off here this weekend. On Thursday forecast for weekend was for a washout. By Friday it had improved but still lots of rain. In the end, a few morning showers aside it was a fabulous weekend here in Cork. Loads of sun and warm both days. Real bbq weather

giveitholly

Yeah all these charts showing really unsettled weather the last week didn't materialise,there was talk of up to 100mm in some places and flooding and some people saying summer was over and throwing toys out of the pram.Turned out a lovely warm evening,thankfully we got over an inch of rain since fri night even though a lot of places missed out

NIMAN

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Forecast was way off here this weekend. On Thursday forecast for weekend was for a washout. By Friday it had improved but still lots of rain. In the end, a few morning showers aside it was a fabulous weekend here in Cork. Loads of sun and warm both days. Real bbq weather

Makes a mockery out of talk of "we are in for a good August" when they can't even predict the next week accurately.

Gonzo

giveitholly wrote: »

Yeah all these charts showing really unsettled weather the last week didn't materialise,there was talk of up to 100mm in some places and flooding and some people saying summer was over and throwing toys out of the pram.Turned out a lovely warm evening,thankfully we got over an inch of rain since fri night even though a lot of places missed out

The models have just not been reliable recently and all disagreeing with one another. For two weeks both the GEM and ECM have had very unsettled signals while the GFS was on it's own flipping between unsettled one run and settled and warm the next. All models have shown big rainfall totals at various stages and to date none of these have come off.

The rainfall charts have generally overblown the widespread nature of showers and heavy rain over the past 4 to 5 days leaving many people particularly farmers dissapointed with the very localized nature of any rainfall. Some places have done well with rain while many others haven't.

Now the ECM and GEM are back to a warm and dry scene from next weekend while the GFS has reverted to unsettled. At this stage it's a 50/50 between Azores high building and the Atlantic fighting back. Tomorrow will most likely tell a different story again.

At this stage it's best to just take each day as it comes and see what happens. The current tricky pattern were under and the possible lack of data is what is causing alot of the problems with forecasting over the past 2 weeks.

sryanbruen

giveitholly wrote: »

Yeah all these charts showing really unsettled weather the last week didn't materialise,there was talk of up to 100mm in some places and flooding and some people saying summer was over and throwing toys out of the pram.Turned out a lovely warm evening,thankfully we got over an inch of rain since fri night even though a lot of places missed out

I would have liked that more than the rubbish I did get not gonna lie. This weekend was nothing special either but that was to be expected here on the east coast - after the superb spring can't have it all.

Gaoth Laidir

Most models are suffering from the lower number of aircraft observations.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts

Beautiful soft, warm, sunny morning here in Louth, the cats are out sunning themselves already!

Whats is great is the difference the rain has made, things are dewy and growing fast, the place is less parched. Garden loving it!

appledrop

It is roasting already! Yipee beautiful day here. Bring it on.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

The models have just not been reliable recently and all disagreeing with one another. For two weeks both the GEM and ECM have had very unsettled signals while the GFS was on it's own flipping between unsettled one run and settled and warm the next. All models have shown big rainfall totals at various stages and to date none of these have come off.

s.

The wild swings might be due to the lack of data due to the global shutdown, but also in blocked scenarios you tend to find that some models predict an ending, but it constantly gets pushed back or downgraded. This seems to be what has been happening so far over the last few months. Of course a proper breakdown will eventually come, and when it does, we could see a repeat of what took place prior to the polar vortex disintegrating this year- i.e wet weather for months on end.

esposito

nacho libre wrote: »

The wild swings might be due to the lack of data due to the global shutdown, but also in blocked scenarios you tend to find that some models predict an ending, but it constantly gets pushed back or downgraded. This seems to be what has been happening so far over the last few months. Of course a proper breakdown will eventually come, and when it does, we could see a repeat of what took place prior to the polar vortex disintegrating this year- i.e wet weather for months on end.

Loving the optimism there nacho....

Slashermcguirk

So checking in again to see what the negative brigade have to say. I thought summer was supposed to be over?? weather has been bliss in Dublin 5 the last few days. So much for the doom and gloom! Sitting out the garden under perfect blue skies

esposito

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

So checking in again to see what the negative brigade have to say. I thought summer was supposed to be over?? weather has been bliss in Dublin 5 the last few days. So much for the doom and gloom! Sitting out the garden under perfect blue skies

Have to say today and yesterday have been quite warm and humid in Dublin 9 which I love so can’t complain too much. Hopefully it doesn’t cloud over like yesterday afternoon. Would love a thunderstorm tonight or tomorrow. Higher chance tomorrow.

Gonzo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Most models are suffering from the lower number of aircraft observations.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts

Makes perfect sense now why all the models have been a bit off over the past few months with a noticeable performance problem particularly with the GFS over recent weeks. That article was posted on 20th of March so fingers crossed we start getting more reliable data across all models over the next few weeks as airlines get back up into the skies.

Gonzo

a beautiful morning here in Meath however cloud is increasing. Currently 20C and today is warmer than yesterday across most of the country compared to this time yesterday.

a few stations already at 21C reported from 11am.

If sunny spells persist into the afternoon many places could get to 22 or 23C today, we may see 24C in one or two places.



Phoenix Park now reporting 22C for 12pm, a very respectful summer temperature this early in the day.

SleetAndSnow

Cloudy morning in cork city, about 15 degrees. Humid though so feels warmer. Wonder if we will see any sparks later on?

SleetAndSnow

Nearly 20 degrees in cork city now. Very warm, humid and sunny! Clouds around too though.

John.Icy

Today is probably in the top 3 finest days of the year. Here in D9 we struggled on many of the days in past weeks for the temperature to pick up with the East breeze. It's around 21.6 now, with little to no cloud where it matters (in the suns path) and a subtle but not damaging breeze. I believe that is our 2nd highest temperature of the year, using the airport as a reference, locally here could have been higher and there seems to be a 2 month lag on the Glasnevin stations historical data so can't check that?. The 'station' across the road temperature wise has matched the airport either way for the last few weeks that I've checked.

compsys

John.Icy wrote: »

Today is probably in the top 3 finest days of the year. Here in D9 we struggled on many of the days in past weeks for the temperature to pick up with the East breeze. It's around 21.6 now, with little to no cloud where it matters (in the suns path) and a subtle but not damaging breeze. I believe that is our 2nd highest temperature of the year, using the airport as a reference, locally here could have been higher and there seems to be a 2 month lag on the Glasnevin stations historical data so can't check that?. The 'station' across the road temperature wise has matched the airport either way for the last few weeks that I've checked.

Yes - fine weather is somewhat wasted on those near the East coast up until the end of May usually as the sea breeze keeps things quite cool.

Don't get me wrong, all the sun this spring has been absolutely amazing, but if warm temperatures are your thing, it's been a bit disappointing so far.

Of course if you're in a sheltered back garden or beside a concrete wall it may have felt very warm on some days in April and early May for you, but generally there's only been a handful of hot days in the East so far this year. Today being one of them.

Gonzo

an incredible day here in Meath, wasn't expecting today to be quite this sunny or warm.

Almost unbroken sunshine since 2pm, the sky has that continental hazy blue look to it. The breeze has no cooling affect whatsoever, feels almost like a hairdryer. Currently 23C but feels more like 26 or 27c with the humidity. June the 1st was possibly a degree warmer but today certainly feels like the hottest day of the year here, easily the top 2 or 3 days of the year.

pauldry

Fog in Sligo 12c....some rain too