Ireland vs New Zealand

NIMAN

I could imagine the reaction here if they shut Ireland down for 4 new cases.

niallo27

NIMAN wrote: »

I could imagine the reaction here if they shut Ireland down for 4 new cases.

Dont you mean 17, probably be 40 by tomorrow.

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

I read today (in the guardian) that all positive cases are being transferred into government quarantine facilities, in some cases against their will. This is a new development.....people were asked to self quarantine in the first wave. IMO this is a mistake....if it has spread too far you’re facing he prospect of mass forced incarceration, which would surely turn many against the government. It seems dystopian and excessive to me

They're trying to keep it suppressed, they have all known cases, so they're isolating them in order to ensure that they know who they have interacted with. The goal is to chase down the source of the infection so they can eradicate it in the community. If you have 13 other people who are infected but in voluntary self-isolation, then you have less control over exposure.

Like you say, if it has spread too far, you'll have to lock up everyone - and that's exactly why they won't do it. If they don't manage to nail this down, if the numbers keep growing, it'll be back to standard lockdown measures.

The NZ government have a lot of local support in what they're doing because they have proven themselves uniquely capable of suppressing the infection. Locals are disappointed the measures are back, but 100% in support of them.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

They're trying to keep it suppressed, they have all known cases, so they're isolating them in order to ensure that they know who they have interacted with. The goal is to chase down the source of the infection so they can eradicate it in the community. If you have 13 other people who are infected but in voluntary self-isolation, then you have less control over exposure.

Like you say, if it has spread too far, you'll have to lock up everyone - and that's exactly why they won't do it. If they don't manage to nail this down, if the numbers keep growing, it'll be back to standard lockdown measures.

The NZ government have a lot of local support in what they're doing because they have proven themselves uniquely capable of suppressing the infection. Locals are disappointed the measures are back, but 100% in support of them.

Do you think that this will stay at 13 people? You don’t go from zero to 13 overnight. What when it’s 100 or more?

And if indeed this was seeded by inbound trade as the NZ herald is reporting this morning then unless even stronger border measures are put in place then it will happen again. With more lockdowns.NZ economy will decline more than Ireland’s in 2020 according to the IMF, and that’s before more nationwide strict lockdowns are taken into account

If a vaccine doesn’t come soon I don’t see the NZ strategy as sustainable

Diarmuid

seamus wrote: »

Like you say, if it has spread too far, you'll have to lock up everyone - and that's exactly why they won't do it. If they don't manage to nail this down, if the numbers keep growing, it'll be back to standard lockdown measures.
.

And what will happen the next time someone gets a high temperature? On one hand,potential isolation for 2 weeks in some government facility. Or just shut your mouth and move on. I know what a high percentage of people would do

NIMAN

niallo27 wrote: »

Dont you mean 17, probably be 40 by tomorrow.

... but it was initially shut down for 4 new cases.

NIMAN

Deleted User wrote: »

If a vaccine doesn’t come soon I don’t see the NZ strategy as sustainable

How is their economy doing?
Did they fully re-open and go about their business as usual?

hmmm

Timmyr wrote: »

Thoughts over here in NZ are that there has been community transmission all along, although minimal and people assumed they were safe so didnt get tested. There has been a large stigma that nobody wanted to be the first confirmed case after a long period.

I heard Scott Gottlieb being interviewed yesterday, and he's been a pretty reliable and straight shooting commentator on the virus. He thought the risk it had been imported on something was pretty unlikely, and it is much more likely that there is undetected community spread in New Zealand which has only become apparent now. If that is the case it's unfortunate for them, and means they are perhaps where we were in early March.

I expect they'll still try for eradication as the cases detected so far all seem to relate to the same cluster, but if they detect any cases which are unrelated then they'll have a decision to make.

NIMAN

NIMAN wrote: »

How is their economy doing?
Did they fully re-open and go about their business as usual?

Not great. The IMF forecasts NZ to decline more than Ireland’s in 2020

If this current outbreak is more widely seeded than expected, NZ have a tough decision to make

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you think that this will stay at 13 people? You don’t go from zero to 13 overnight. What when it’s 100 or more?

They're basically doing an extreme version of contact tracing - everyone that came within a fart of an infected person is being tested, quickly. That's not to say the infection can't spread, but they're not passively waiting for people to come forward with symptoms, so in theory they should be able to get a grip on this. But the window is small.

Diarmuid wrote: »

And what will happen the next time someone gets a high temperature? On one hand,potential isolation for 2 weeks in some government facility. Or just shut your mouth and move on. I know what a high percentage of people would do

I agree completely, which is why it's a blunt, short-term measure that won't continue if infections increase beyond 30 or 40.

MickeyLeari

seamus wrote: »

They're basically doing an extreme version of contact tracing - everyone that came within a fart of an infected person is being tested, quickly. That's not to say the infection can't spread, but they're not passively waiting for people to come forward with symptoms, so in theory they should be able to get a grip on this. But the window is small.

I agree completely, which is why it's a blunt, short-term measure that won't continue if infections increase beyond 30 or 40.

Completely agree. This is consistent with their approach - they have a short window of opportunity to eradicate otherwise they will be Victoria. If so unfortunate as they had pretty much gone back to normal.

TomSweeney

Shows how pointless the 0 approach is.

seamus

TomSweeney wrote: »

Shows how pointless the 0 approach is.

Yes and no.

If New Zealand get on top of it this time, then they have a playbook for suppressing the virus; Detect, lockdown, destroy.

While rolling lockdowns sounds like a nightmare, if they can suppress the virus by locking down for 3 weeks and then opening up again, it could be the more effective long-term strategy.

Rolling lockdowns are a nightmare from our perspective because we've been operating under restrictions for five months now. Fresh lockdowns are a misery.

New Zealand were completely reopened, domestically, since 8th June. So increasing restrictions is more palatable now.

On the other hand, if they don't get on top of it this time, then the zero-covid approach is dead in the water unless you aim for North Korean levels of border control.

There are still good lessons out of NZ either way. They've been operating a clear four-level system that indicates what measures are in place at a given time. Donnelly's colour-coded system is the same idea, except stupider.
Why we haven't had the same one in place since April or May, I don't know.

AdamD

The 0 approach isn't pointless if you're NZ. But its too late for virtually every other country to try it, its already spread too much

NIMAN

How are countries like this going to react to the seasonal flu when it arrives in the coming months?

Will standard flu cases be treated like Covid cases?

TomSweeney

TomSweeney wrote: »

Shows how pointless the 0 approach is.

They got months of normality out of it. Everyone talks about the mental toll of this virus.. I'm sure the people of NZ are happy with the approach being taken overall and would like to get back to zero.

MadYaker

TomSweeney wrote: »

Shows how pointless the 0 approach is.

I don’t think it’s pointless. It’s a good goal to aim for and their plan got them 100 days of normalcy. I think they will eliminate this outbreak, open up again and then in another few months the same thing will happen again, rinse and repeat until there’s vaccine. It’s basically the same thing everyone else is doing only NZ had a big head start and managed to keep numbers low in the first place.

seamus

NIMAN wrote: »

How are countries like this going to react to the seasonal flu when it arrives in the coming months?

Will standard flu cases be treated like Covid cases?

Seasonal flu shouldn't arrive, not really. It doesn't just appear spontaneously, it's spread through international travel and human contact.

Both of which are drastically limited, meaning that nobody should be seeing flu spikes this year unless they're not trying to control Covid. New Zealand is right at the peak of it's traditional "flu season" right now, which typically ends in October.

Presumably it's handled the same way we are - anyone who has symptoms gets tested for covid.

kenmc

NIMAN wrote: »

How are countries like this going to react to the seasonal flu when it arrives in the coming months?

Will standard flu cases be treated like Covid cases?

They will have to be, until proven to be not covid.
On the other hand, we *should* see fewer instances of colds and flu than normal, since distancing, hand and respiratory hygiene in place for covid should reduce transmission of old and flu virus also.

Tenzor07

MadYaker wrote: »

I don’t think it’s pointless. It’s a good goal to aim for and their plan got them 100 days of normalcy. I think they will eliminate this outbreak, open up again and then in another few months the same thing will happen again, rinse and repeat until there’s vaccine. It’s basically the same thing everyone else is doing only NZ had a big head start and managed to keep numbers low in the first place.

How long do you think they can stay "Closed" there's zero travel in and out of the island so no foreign currency coming into the country, which when you're an island 2,000km from the next inhabited country is a massive loss to the economy.
And now this 3 day lockdown for Auckland will be extended further until they get back to 0 cases, so people are only spending on the bare essentials further stifling the economy.

The policy of opening followed by by hard lockdown on and off like a switch in the pursuit of a zero covid country is extremely damaging, and you will lose the support of the people the longer you pursue this. New Zealand can better stand this than any European country but not forever.

I know the Irish economy is in the Toilet also but we're in a better position to recover than they are.

hmmm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

The policy of opening followed by by hard lockdown on and off like a switch in the pursuit of a zero covid country is extremely damaging, and you will lose the support of the people the longer you pursue this. New Zealand can better stand this than any European country but not forever.

Psychologically it must be very tough. They are going from almost no restrictions to overnight hard lockdown with no warning, and this will repeat in the coming months.

At least ours we have a consistent level of restrictions, which isn't going to change hugely (even if we have local lockdowns).

I'm not sure which I'd prefer. I think businesses which are allowed open can plan better in the latter scenario.

Tenzor07

Tenzor07 wrote: »

How long do you think they can stay "Closed" there's zero travel in and out of the island so no foreign currency coming into the country, which when you're an island 2,000km from the next inhabited country is a massive loss to the economy.
And now this 3 day lockdown for Auckland will be extended further until they get back to 0 cases, so people are only spending on the bare essentials further stifling the economy.

The policy of opening followed by by hard lockdown on and off like a switch in the pursuit of a zero covid country is extremely damaging, and you will lose the support of the people the longer you pursue this. New Zealand can better stand this than any European country but not forever.

I know the Irish economy is in the Toilet also but we're in a better position to recover than they are.

Tourism accounts for 20% of their foreign exchange earnings. A lot but not your "no foreign currency coming into the country". They're still getting most of what they were getting I presume since the world is still consuming their products.

Meanwhile, businesses have had months of regular income which will help them weather out this next part.

I've no idea how to properly work it out. Would Ireland be better off with a fully functioning internal economy for three months with border restrictions, or a half functioning internal economy with no restrictions.

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

Psychologically it must be very tough. They are going from almost no restrictions to overnight hard lockdown with no warning, and this will repeat in the coming months.

At least ours we have a consistent level of restrictions, which isn't going to change hugely (even if we have local lockdowns).

I'm not sure which I'd prefer. I think businesses which are allowed open can plan better in the latter scenario.

I think that the coming days will tell a lot about the merit of the strategy. Has NZ played a blinder (as we all assumed), or done the ultimate ‘kick the can down the road’. I still think the former, but increasingly fear the latter.

The NZ economy is already forecast by the IMF to decline more than ours in 2020. Which has its own impact on public health. I do agree that a stable and modest restriction is better than switching between no restriction and full restriction.

Tenzor07

Deleted User wrote: »

Meanwhile, businesses have had months of regular income which will help them weather out this next part. I've no idea how to properly work it out. Would Ireland be better off with a fully functioning internal economy for three months with border restrictions, or a half functioning internal economy with no restrictions.

Yea not sure how normal the NZ economy has been, i'm sure they like in Ireland are suffering from the devastation of the tourism and aviation sector, job losses and fear/uncertainty limit spending, and like here no matter how much the HSE/Govt. tell us all to holiday at home it just cannot sustain the 10's of thousands of jobs in tourism.

I still don't really get the whole idea that they lost so much by closing their borders.. Tourism is down everywhere. It would have been devastated no matter what. There was no alternative to maintain it as if everything was fine.

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

I still don't really get the whole idea that they lost so much by closing their borders.. Tourism is down everywhere. It would have been devastated no matter what. There was no alternative to maintain it as if everything was fine.

True. The only thing though as we have seen is that there are no end of individuals who are happy to say "fvck it" and go on a foreign holiday, and no end of airlines who are happy to take that shilling so they don't go to the wall. If NZ had left its borders open, it would likely have seen a massive influx of people; being one of the few English-speaking places on the planet that's still open.

But that's a feedback loop anyway. It would have resulted in the infection being rife in New Zealand, collapse their healthcare system, and then one way or another tourism numbers would collapse because NZ is a covid hotspot that nobody wants to go to.

The problem with the people crying, "But the economy!", is that they never think long-term. The choice is between
- Close the economy, cause a recession and minimise deaths
or
- Leave the economy open, cause massive amounts of deaths, then cause a recession

lee_baby_simms

Deleted User wrote: »

I still don't really get the whole idea that they lost so much by closing their borders..

They still have to actually deal with the virus, its merely been suppressed.

If you believe in seasonality and its impacts related to covid19 then they're coming out of winter now, like February in Europe when the large wave began.

MadYaker

Tenzor07 wrote: »

How long do you think they can stay "Closed" there's zero travel in and out of the island so no foreign currency coming into the country, which when you're an island 2,000km from the next inhabited country is a massive loss to the economy.
And now this 3 day lockdown for Auckland will be extended further until they get back to 0 cases, so people are only spending on the bare essentials further stifling the economy.

The policy of opening followed by by hard lockdown on and off like a switch in the pursuit of a zero covid country is extremely damaging, and you will lose the support of the people the longer you pursue this. New Zealand can better stand this than any European country but not forever.

I know the Irish economy is in the Toilet also but we're in a better position to recover than they are.

What??? No foreign currency? What are you talking about? There’s no tourists anywhere. Where will the tourists come from if they open their borders? Travel restrictions are world wide.

You criticise their approach as if you know a better alternative, what is it?

TomSweeney

TomSweeney wrote: »

Shows how pointless the 0 approach is.

I guess you missed when they returned to filling stadiums again

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_P5ydfcu78

I really don't get this thread. How months of victory can suddenly turn into "sure that was a waste of time" because they get a few cases.