Ireland vs New Zealand

johnmcdnl

In some positive news No new cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand today

There have now been no new cases in the community for four days, with some imported cases reported.

Decision on whether to move back to Level 1 will be announced by cabinet next week

Timmyr

johnmcdnl wrote: »

In some positive news No new cases of Covid-19 reported in New Zealand today



Decision on whether to move back to Level 1 will be announced by cabinet next week

TBH, here in Auckland at level 2.5 its still pretty normal, we just have to stay seated when we go for a beer. Other than that I don't really notice any difference except obviously mask wearing but that will continue at level 1

Edit: we are now 4 days in a row without any cases

It’s going utterly the wrong way in Ireland. Makes you think. Really think.

Well done the Kiwis

Morrison J

Potentially months of near normality ahead for NZ again. Fair play to them.

If only we as a country could even get to the point of having a serious conversation about attempting a Zero Covid island it'd be great.

mandrake04

It seems most of the recent cases reported cases were Hotel quarantine never made it onto the street, handful of community cases. NZ looking good.

Del Griffith

All they need to do now is keep their country closed to the rest of the world forever

mandrake04

Del Griffith wrote: »

All they need to do now is keep their country closed to the rest of the world forever

Country closed to outsiders versus country closed to local population, I know which one makes sense to me.

SuperS54

mandrake04 wrote: »

Country closed to outsiders versus country closed to local population, I know which one makes sense to me.

I've been enjoying the former here in Taiwan since this whole thing started, very, very glad the government here acted quickly in the beginning.

Country here is no longer closed to outsiders however there is a very strict 14 day quarantine in designated hotels with gps tracking and daily phone calls.

Key in countries which have managed it so far is to close doors, sort out the domestic situation and then control what comes into the country.

mandrake04

New Zealand still doing good, no community cases in over a week just overseas cases.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-current-cases-details

Considering they have restricted travel to kiwis only and everyone is quick to point out NZ remoteness they still catching quite a few in hotel quarantine, makes you wonder how many cases Ireland are travel related.

mandrake04

mandrake04 wrote: »

New Zealand still doing good, no community cases in over a week just overseas cases.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-current-cases-details

Considering they have restricted travel to kiwis only and everyone is quick to point out NZ remoteness they still catching quite a few in hotel quarantine, makes you wonder how many cases Ireland are travel related.

It is an astonishing achievement and yes, it certainly does make you think

ginoginelli

mandrake04 wrote: »

New Zealand still doing good, no community cases in over a week just overseas cases.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-current-cases-details

Considering they have restricted travel to kiwis only and everyone is quick to point out NZ remoteness they still catching quite a few in hotel quarantine, makes you wonder how many cases Ireland are travel related.

I suspect quite a significant number

SuperS54

mandrake04 wrote: »

New Zealand still doing good, no community cases in over a week just overseas cases.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-current-cases-details

Considering they have restricted travel to kiwis only and everyone is quick to point out NZ remoteness they still catching quite a few in hotel quarantine, makes you wonder how many cases Ireland are travel related.

Almost all of the 500+ cases in Taiwan are "imported", no local cases here since Feb or March. Luckily pretty much all have been caught during the quarantine period so didn't have a chance to spread it to anyone else.

mandrake04

SuperS54 wrote: »

Almost all of the 500+ cases in Taiwan are "imported", no local cases here since Feb or March. Luckily pretty much all have been caught during the quarantine period so didn't have a chance to spread it to anyone else.

Same in NSW




4000 cases and 2300 of them were imported and luckily most of them never got further than the hotel.

https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-source-of-infection/nsw

How does this strategy work with those who work in a industry that constantly pass through borders? Truckers and shipping? Surely they can't quarantine everytime they come in

ArthurDayne

Deleted User wrote: »

It is an astonishing achievement and yes, it certainly does make you think

NZ is a far more remote country than Ireland. Unlike Ireland, NZ does not exist in a highly integrated and free moving political and economic union, nor does it share a completely open border with another jurisdiction. We have to get it out of our heads that our similar population size to NZ is a valid comparator — because when Covid was emerging we were still part of a largely free flowing bloc of some half a billion people. Our level of connectedness to the wider world is simply not comparable to NZ, where Australia is more or less a pre-gateway.

Even if we look at South Korea and Taiwan, there are hugely different geopolitical realities. Firstly, both countries have experienced significant epidemic threats before and established protocols for dealing with it years ago. Secondly, both countries are not in highly integrated relationships with their neighbours and so tightening borders is not the same kind of exercise. South Korea has the tightest border on the planet with its neighbour, while Taiwan is more or less under perpetual threat of invasion by its nearest neighbour. Thirdly, both countries have extremely strong economies — both being top 10 economies in Asia.

The ZeroCovid strategy is probably achievable in Ireland with (and this would be a huge ‘if’) the cooperation of the North. But, through both a domestic and EU-wide lack of real pandemic planning over the years, it would have been extremely difficult from the start to actually implement that policy and it will be very difficult to implement it now. It would also require effectively shutting off our country and economy (bearing in mind how the EU economy flows) without knowing how long we will have to remain shut of. The conversation is there to be had, but like the government’s current strategy, there are highly problematic issues with sustainability for what may be another year if not longer.

ArthurDayne

ArthurDayne wrote: »

NZ is a far more remote country than Ireland. Unlike Ireland, NZ does not exist in a highly integrated and free moving political and economic union, nor does it share a completely open border with another jurisdiction. We have to get it out of our heads that our similar population size to NZ is a valid comparator — because when Covid was emerging we were still part of a largely free flowing bloc of some half a billion people. Our level of connectedness to the wider world is simply not comparable to NZ, where Australia is more or less a pre-gateway.

Even if we look at South Korea and Taiwan, there are hugely different geopolitical realities. Firstly, both countries have experienced significant epidemic threats before and established protocols for dealing with it years ago. Secondly, both countries are not in highly integrated relationships with their neighbours and so tightening borders is not the same kind of exercise. South Korea has the tightest border on the planet with its neighbour, while Taiwan is more or less under perpetual threat of invasion by its nearest neighbour. Thirdly, both countries have extremely strong economies — both being top 10 economies in Asia.

The ZeroCovid strategy is probably achievable in Ireland with (and this would be a huge ‘if’) the cooperation of the North. But, through both a domestic and EU-wide lack of real pandemic planning over the years, it would have been extremely difficult from the start to actually implement that policy and it will be very difficult to implement it now. It would also require effectively shutting off our country and economy (bearing in mind how the EU economy flows) without knowing how long we will have to remain shut of. The conversation is there to be had, but like the government’s current strategy, there are highly problematic issues with sustainability for what may be another year if not longer.

I understand that, and how difficult - probably bordering on the impossible - it would have been to emulate NZ’s approach. It’s way too late anyway

A few things about it that make me think, not about trying to copy their approach, but just their philosophy in general, include

Real, tangible, leadership from the top. Jacinda Ahdern has set the bar for others to try to reach.

Clear, concise communications; a comprehensive and comprehendible list of response levels

Decisive action - the lockdown in Auckland recently

Accountability - if you f*ck up, you go

Creation of a strategic goal and a sense of common purpose

Inclusiveness - “we’re a team of 5 million”

Honesty - straightforward, no bullsh!t, saying it how it is

Empathy - not just words but the MPs all took a pay cut

eddie73

We wont get back to the level New Zealand are at. They have not the same challenges that we do in terms of flow of people.
New Zealanders are more refined and obedient than we are too. The best worst case scenario now is how many people will get sick. This will mostly be on Covid 19's terms than anything that we may or may not do in the meantime.

We are about 25% way through this if Michael Osterholm is to be believed.

mandrake04

ArthurDayne wrote: »

NZ is a far more remote country than Ireland. Unlike Ireland, NZ does not exist in a highly integrated and free moving political and economic union

I couldn’t agree more, but NZ even though it is remote and has now very little (a mere fraction) passenger movements but is still catching cases daily in quarantine so it makes you wonder about rising cases again in the free moving union.

People there in NZ are more realistic, they don’t blame 5G masts, tests, schools, unopened pubs or meat factories as the source of infection they know exactly where the source originates.

eddie73

mandrake04 wrote: »

I couldn’t agree more, but NZ even though it is remote and has now very little (a mere fraction) passenger movements but is still catching cases daily in quarantine so it makes you wonder about rising cases again in the free moving union.

People there in NZ are more realistic, they don’t blame 5G masts, tests, schools, unopened pubs or meat factories as the source of infection they know exactly where the source originates

.

There are some voices of dissent in New Zealand. We should be careful not to mix up the more reasonable questioning with the ravings of conspiracy.

Yes, New Zealand have excellent contact tracing but this is down to technology and its application and most importantly, a much less free movement of people across it's remote borders. If New Zealand were where Belgium or Austria were in Europe, they would face identical challenges. Austria would be one of the most conservative countries in Europe with a compliant population. Once people move in and out across your borders, there is little or nothing you can do except a damage limitation exercise.

As we totter on level 4/5 here, we need to be realistic that unless NI adopts a similar strategy to us, there will be nothing we can do to keep the numbers down. No amount of guards on the border, no amount of lock downs in the republic will stop infections spread over into border counties and eventually beyond.

Level 5 will curb the spread no matter what NI do. We only need to cooperate with NI if want to love towards zero covid, which we don't it seems.

eddie73

It will stall it, reduce it short term. That's all.

Once we go back from level 5 to lower levels, there will be a spike after a few weeks.

All things being equal, if there were no such thing as the economy and debt, we could lock down for the next 1 - 6 months and get the r number down and keep it virtually at zero.

Is this an option?

The counter argument is the collapse of the health system.
Is this an option?

Morrison J

eddie73 wrote: »

It will stall it, reduce it short term. That's all.

Once we go back from level 5 to lower levels, there will be a spike after a few weeks.

All things being equal, if there were no such thing as the economy and debt, we could lock down for the next 1 - 6 months and get the r number down and keep it virtually at zero.

Is this an option?

The counter argument is the collapse of the health system.
Is this an option?

Unlikely itd take 6 months. Even if it did would the damage be as bad to the economy as us having a lockdown every 5/6 months with regional lockdowns on and off in between? That's our current "plan."

SuperS54

ArthurDayne wrote: »

Secondly, both countries are not in highly integrated relationships with their neighbours and so tightening borders is not the same kind of exercise

That's completely untrue! Taiwan certainly has massive business interests in China, Vietnam, Thailand, Korea, Japan, pretty much every country in Asia. Much of China's manufacturing success is due to Taiwanese businessmen, forget the whole "at war" thing, there are huge business ties between the countries. Have a look at 2019 passenger numbers through Taiwan's airports and compare to Irelands...

mandrake04

Wellington social distancing

Hamsterchops

The whole concept of this thread is fatally flawed.

Due to geography, (proximity to other countries) comparing Ireland to New Zealand re Covid is just rediculous in the extreme, hence this thread should have been strangled at birth.

Timmyr

mandrake04 wrote: »

Wellington social distancing

We dont need to social distance anymore, back at level one and no covid cases in the community

mandrake04

Hamsterchops wrote: »

The whole concept of this thread is fatally flawed.

Due to geography, (proximity to other countries) comparing Ireland to New Zealand re Covid is just rediculous in the extreme, hence this thread should have been strangled at birth.

We all know about the geography, I think now it’s a case of watching normal life in NZ which is something you won’t see in Ireland for a considerable period of time.

Timmyr

Timmyr wrote: »

We dont need to social distance anymore, back at level one and no covid cases in the community

I presume that was the point they were trying to make

Hamsterchops

Hamsterchops wrote: »

The whole concept of this thread is fatally flawed.

Due to geography, (proximity to other countries) comparing Ireland to New Zealand re Covid is just rediculous in the extreme, hence this thread should have been strangled at birth.

Personally, the remoteness of NZ (Geography) isn’t the key point for me. It’s the country’s ability to control its borders and therefore access to the country in a way that Ireland can’t because we have a land border with another jurisdiction, plus we are members of the EU with free movement and all that.

It’s way too late to even think about an all Ireland strategy of zero COVID. It’s not too late to try and harmonise the approach, nor is it too late to learn from the positive impact of the points I made in a post above, about leadership, clarity of message, and so on.

zerosugarbuzz

Deleted User wrote: »

Level 5 will curb the spread no matter what NI do. We only need to cooperate with NI if want to love towards zero covid, which we don't it seems.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-who-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-condemning-lockdowns/news-story/f2188f2aebff1b7b291b297731c3da74

World health organisation now recommending an end to lockdown policy