Ireland vs New Zealand

MickeyLeari

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's an outrageously stupid article. Of course NZ should nip it in the bud if they can so they can go back to living life as normal without any virus.

That article is basically saying to let it spread when you have four cases. Instead of stopping it, it's arguing to let is spread. Stupid as hell.

Hey China, don't stop it in Wuhan when there's four cases. Just let shlt spread. Lockdowns are mean.

What a retard.

Did you read the article? Or selectively read it?

- do you think we should have a new and indeed more rigorous lockdown until we have no cases?

- do you think a NZ strategy is feasible in Ireland?

- do you realise that for that to happen we will literally have to build a wall on the island of Ireland including the stopping of trade?

- do you also realise we are part of a single economic and social area of 450m people comprising 27 countries, one very close partner through the common travel area (which is more than travel) and other close partners (Norway, Iceland and Switzerland)?

We cannot apply the NZ strategy for very good reasons (great for them that they can) and we cannot do full lock downs based on a small number of cases. He is also right that there should be more nuanced approaches in respect to enforcement as well as testing and tracing rather than rely on the blunt instrument of lockdowns.

There will rightfully be a strategy in respect to arrivals from real red zone areas and targeted restrictions from other areas.

I don't think it would work in the EU but don't just write it off elsewhere.

johnmcdnl

plodder wrote: »

Good article above. It does seem crazy to lockdown a city as a result of four cases in the one family. More than that though, it proves once and for all, the utter futility of us trying to "squash the virus" to zero cases. With our proximity to Europe, it would never be achieved, never mind maintained for any period of time.

No it doesn't seem crazy if you ask me. You lock Auckland down for 3 days, while giving guidance to the rest of the country to be extra careful, while the health officials chase down the 200 direct contacts and their close contacts with the known 4 cases. You test and trace those people as well, while doing genome sequencing and try to identify where the spread began.

Why wait until next week when there will be 20,30,50,100 cases before locking down, when you can do the same today with only 4 known cases which is actually a potentially manageable number. If you don't act now, you're facing a return to 4-6 week full lockdowns like what's happening in Melbourne right now. Perhaps during this process more cases will be identified, which is precisely why it's been done. Perhaps, the virus has spread further than is manageable in which case a second full lockdown is coming, in which case locking down today vs next week if irrelevant.

It's a continuation of the "act hard and fast" policy that's been adopted in NZ and I'd have been shocked if any other approach was taken upon cases being found. I guess it's not until Friday evening that there will be a clearer picture as to what the full story and impact of these 4 cases is.

Fingers crossed for NZ as a whole that the spread can be contained a second time, although reading through this thread it seems plenty of people would love to see a few Kiwis catch COVID and have it spread just so they can have a swipe at FF/FG and their attempts to curtail the spread but I guess that's to be expected on online forums these days.

MickeyLeari

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't think it would work in the EU but don't just write it off elsewhere.

I was reading this article not in the context of NZ but in respect to those people are are writing in and to the IT and responding to journalists on Twitter pushing for the NZ approach in Ireland. And in that context he makes good points in my opinion.

thebaz

Deleted User wrote: »

Months at a time of zero covid isn't fantasy. Vietnam and NZ have just had it and I'd say everyone in either country would agree that the measures were worth it.

Vietnam and NZ will get rid of it again and life will be normal again for a few months. Rinse repeat. Better than constant social distancing and fear. I don't think it would work in the EU but don't just write it off elsewhere.

I believe it is Fantasy - to stamp out the virus now - 7 or 8 months after the virus has been unleashed othroughout the world. The only way to have eradictaed would have been at its source last November - The virus is in every country now - and I would guess ther is a lot more cases than 4 in NZ - the virus is causing stigma with the pursuit of complete eradication, and I would guess many who have virus are not getting tested for fear of the stigma - Closing down an entire city for 4 cases for a virus that has a mortality rate of .3% seams madness to me.
We can not adopt the approach to Covid 1 and MERS as they were eradicated effectivly at source - this one wasn't - but thankfully the mortality rate is not as bad as we first expectedd.

wassie

thebaz wrote: »

Closing down an entire city for 4 cases for a virus that has a mortality rate of .3% seams madness to me.

I'd happily go into lockdown for 3 days if it meant I could go back to the pub after that. Good luck to NZ I say.

Tenzor07

4 cases, now they are back to where we were in March, Panic buying, mini-riots at the supermarket, now the election in 5 weeks time is looking like it will be cancelled also until 2021 possibly..
It would appear that the lockdown of Auckland may go on for more than 3 days...

The Eradication strategy they're following and what Ireland seem to be trying to emulate just isn't working...

Tenzor07

Tenzor07 wrote: »

4 cases, now they are back to where we were in March, Panic buying, mini-riots at the supermarket, now the election in 5 weeks time is looking like it will be cancelled also until 2021 possibly..
It would appear that the lockdown of Auckland may go on for more than 3 days...

The Eradication strategy they're following and what Ireland seem to be trying to emulate just isn't working...

Source for any of this?

4 cases haven’t come from nowhere. Given that those individuals have not travelled there must be some element of community transmission, right? So more than 4 cases. The results of the testing will be very interesting

Neamhshuntasach

They went 100 odd days last time. What if they get back to zero and they only go 10 days. Then 8 days. 12 days...etc etc. Do they just keep opening and closing things? And they had zero cases based on testing. Still could have been asymptomatic people spreading it around the place and just never got tested.

Another confirmed case and four more suspected

is_that_so

Tenzor07 wrote: »

4 cases, now they are back to where we were in March, Panic buying, mini-riots at the supermarket, now the election in 5 weeks time is looking like it will be cancelled also until 2021 possibly..
It would appear that the lockdown of Auckland may go on for more than 3 days...

The Eradication strategy they're following and what Ireland seem to be trying to emulate just isn't working...

We're not doing what they are doing. Ours is a suppression and management tactic. Compare our response to 250 odd cases with theirs for 4, we made it local and just reversed one set of restrictions in that situation.

Tenzor07

is_that_so wrote: »

We're not doing what they are doing. Ours is a suppression and management tactic. Compare our response to 250 odd cases with theirs for 4, we made it local and just reversed one set of restrictions in that situation.

We were all told the idea was to Lockdown to flatten the curve, that was done, yet the country is still in a Phase 4 Lockdown, 3 counties are in a phase 1 lockdown, it's a ham-fisted FFFG/HSE attempt to eradicate Covid. P4 was based on a couple of handfuls of cases per day... they are trying to eradicate it...

plodder

MickeyLeari wrote: »

I was reading this article not in the context of NZ but in respect to those people are are writing in and to the IT and responding to journalists on Twitter pushing for the NZ approach in Ireland. And in that context he makes good points in my opinion.

Correct. It's silly to be saying that people are hoping for a few Kiwis to get Covid. This is about what we do. Best of luck to them and if they can re-squash it (though I don't see how they can in three days) then good luck to them. But, we had some prominent people pushing for the same thing here. But, I don't think it would work here.

i_surge

faceman wrote: »

Banning travel particularly in the long term is in humane, wrong and pandering to a request not backed by evidence

Strawman, not banned, strictly controlled with a logical system of mandatory quarantine.

MadYaker

Tenzor07 wrote: »

We were all told the idea was to Lockdown to flatten the curve, that was done, yet the country is still in a Phase 4 Lockdown, 3 counties are in a phase 1 lockdown, it's a ham-fisted FFFG/HSE attempt to eradicate Covid. P4 was based on a couple of handfuls of cases per day... they are trying to eradicate it...

So we moved out of lockdown which has caused mor cases and the government told us there would be more cases and potentially more restrictions and you think they are pursuing a 0 Covid strategy?

is_that_so

Tenzor07 wrote: »

We were all told the idea was to Lockdown to flatten the curve, that was done, yet the country is still in a Phase 4 Lockdown, 3 counties are in a phase 1 lockdown, it's a ham-fisted FFFG/HSE attempt to eradicate Covid. P4 was based on a couple of handfuls of cases per day... they are trying to eradicate it...

Glynn has just said suppress, again, and as few cases as possible, that's their strategy. We're at Phase 4 because they want to get the schools open, that's the priority as it should be.

i_surge

i_surge wrote: »

Strawman, not banned, strictly controlled with a logical system of mandatory quarantine.

It's actually awful in Vietnam. There are a lot of foreign parents stuck away from their families since March or something. I see them posting on social media a lot desperately trying to find information to get back in.

I myself have a few friends stuck outside and they've given up on it because at least they don't have children here.

dwayneshintzy

Has Vietnam done a China style total ban on foreigners (including those with work visas) from entering the country?

I know there were plenty of people who were outside of China when things got bad, or who left because things were getting bad, and then couldn't get back in once lockdowns started happening all over the world.

dwayneshintzy

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Has Vietnam done a China style total ban on foreigners (including those with work visas) from entering the country?

I know there were plenty of people who were outside of China when things got bad, or who left because things were getting bad, and then couldn't get back in once lockdowns started happening all over the world.

Some experts are allowed in but for the vast majority, it's closed off. God forbid I have to leave for an emergency, I say good bye to a decade of life here. There are some people here who got stuck out of China and have had to set up shop here. A good friend of mine who moved to China had to have his landlord in Beijing send him all of his stuff and he's since moved to Hong Kong.

Life changing stuff going on for a lot of people.

JJayoo

Mysterious New Zealand cases...my guess is that one of the adults was cheating so can't give the details for contact tracing as this would reveal their sordid activities.

marno21

One of the infected family worked at a cold storage facility where imported frozen food was distributed.

It wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility that there was frozen virus on those food products, especially if they were from a hotspot such as the US. If they were deep frozen for the entirity of their journey the virus sample could have survived and infected the indiviudal in question upon contact in NZ.

It seems more plausible than 100 days of no transmission in the community and 4 cases all of a sudden with no origin.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-newzealand/new-zealand-considers-freight-as-possible-source-of-new-coronavirus-cluster-idUSKCN25801P

Timmyr

marno21 wrote: »

One of the infected family worked at a cold storage facility where imported frozen food was distributed.

It wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility that there was frozen virus on those food products, especially if they were from a hotspot such as the US. If they were deep frozen for the entirity of their journey the virus sample could have survived and infected the indiviudal in question upon contact in NZ.

It seems more plausible than 100 days of no transmission in the community and 4 cases all of a sudden with no origin.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-newzealand/new-zealand-considers-freight-as-possible-source-of-new-coronavirus-cluster-idUSKCN25801P

I have been in that facility a few times and work in the industry, it's highly unlikely that it came in from overseas. All the staff wear gloves as well as a lot of them wearing scarfs over their mouths and nose long before covid was a thing.

Thoughts over here in NZ are that there has been community transmission all along, although minimal and people assumed they were safe so didnt get tested. There has been a large stigma that nobody wanted to be the first confirmed case after a long period.

That or someone who works in one of the managed isolation facilities or drives one of the buses etc has passed it to someone who in turn has passed it to this family

johnmcdnl

marno21 wrote: »

One of the infected family worked at a cold storage facility where imported frozen food was distributed.

It wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility that there was frozen virus on those food products, especially if they were from a hotspot such as the US. If they were deep frozen for the entirity of their journey the virus sample could have survived and infected the indiviudal in question upon contact in NZ.

It seems more plausible than 100 days of no transmission in the community and 4 cases all of a sudden with no origin.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-newzealand/new-zealand-considers-freight-as-possible-source-of-new-coronavirus-cluster-idUSKCN25801P

There have been cases in NZ over the 102 days. Just that they have been identified at the border and quarantined. It's probably most likely that this is the source of the cases.

The managed 14 day isolation facilities have had some issues regarding keeping people separated so it's possible that someone towards the end of their isolation mingled with a new entrant, and then brought the virus with them to Auckland. Genome sequencing may be able to identify this and link it back to a known case in managed isolation. Or perhaps it won't in which case then there's a bigger issue that it managed to slip through the testing procedures in the managed isolation facilities.

3 new cases have been identified today in the cold storage facility, along with a student at a high school with 3000 students. All these cases are linked. The web of contacts now grows bigger so perhaps the source of the cases will grow clearer.

Timmyr

johnmcdnl wrote: »

There have been cases in NZ over the 102 days. Just that they have been identified at the border and quarantined. It's probably most likely that this is the source of the cases.

The managed 14 day isolation facilities have had some issues regarding keeping people separated so it's possible that someone towards the end of their isolation mingled with a new entrant, and then brought the virus with them to Auckland. Genome sequencing may be able to identify this and link it back to a known case in managed isolation. Or perhaps it won't in which case then there's a bigger issue that it managed to slip through the testing procedures in the managed isolation facilities.

3 new cases have been identified today in the cold storage facility, along with a student at a high school with 3000 students. All these cases are linked. The web of contacts now grows bigger so perhaps the source of the cases will grow clearer.

Yes I agree with you, most likely came from managed iso facility.
Also, not been announced yet but Ive been told (my sister in law works for newshub) some family members of the new cases have also tested positive

There is a live announcement in 15 mins from Ashley Bloomfield, if anyone is bored and wants to watch i think its live on youtube & facebook

Timmyr

Timmyr wrote: »

Yes I agree with you, most likely came from managed iso facility.
Also, not been announced yet but Ive been told (my sister in law works for newshub) some family members of the new cases have also tested positive

There is a live announcement in 15 mins from Ashley Bloomfield, if anyone is bored and wants to watch i think its live on youtube & facebook

Unfortunately I was right, 14 new cases today

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Timmyr wrote: »

Unfortunately I was right, 14 new cases today

Yep, although contained in Auckland for the moment, unfortunately some of that family visited Rotorua and Taupo last weekend, so it is highly likely that it has been spread through contact there, I'd imagine.

Have it on fairly good authority that Auckland will go to Level 4 from the weekend and the rest of the country to Level 3.

Timmyr

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote: »

Yep, although contained in Auckland for the moment, unfortunately some of that family visited Rotorua and Taupo last weekend, so it is highly likely that it has been spread through contact there, I'd imagine.

Have it on fairly good authority that Auckland will go to Level 4 from the weekend and the rest of the country to Level 3.

Interesting, as I dont think that level 4 will happen as it will ruin Aucklands economy and cost the govt too much

Del Griffith

marno21 wrote: »

One of the infected family worked at a cold storage facility where imported frozen food was distributed.

It wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility that there was frozen virus on those food products, especially if they were from a hotspot such as the US. If they were deep frozen for the entirity of their journey the virus sample could have survived and infected the indiviudal in question upon contact in NZ.

It seems more plausible than 100 days of no transmission in the community and 4 cases all of a sudden with no origin.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-newzealand/new-zealand-considers-freight-as-possible-source-of-new-coronavirus-cluster-idUSKCN25801P

More likely its been in the community the whole time and just no one noticed because its so mild / asymptomatic for most people. Making the NZ reaction even more OTT..

I read today (in the guardian) that all positive cases are being transferred into government quarantine facilities, in some cases against their will. This is a new development.....people were asked to self quarantine in the first wave. IMO this is a mistake....if it has spread too far you’re facing he prospect of mass forced incarceration, which would surely turn many against the government. It seems dystopian and excessive to me