Ireland vs New Zealand

httpete

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Whilst Ireland's re-opening is slower and lagging behind the rest of Europe, it will open, trade will increase..slowly, cash flow which is the life blood of the economy will work its way through the system again.
Not saying it will be a V shaped recovery with the FFFG Govts extremely slow opening of the economy.

They aren't going to re-open the pubs/entertainment sector. They weren't prepared to do at 20 cases a day in July, and the cases are not going back to those levels now that there are 50,000 flying people in weekly.

Schools will further increase the numbers in September. Michael Martin has already said he can't guarantee the pubs will re-open this year; he can't say the truth because the public couldn't take it, the truth is they are not opening pubs until there is a vaccine. The only way they could re-open is if the numbers could be sustained at zero or close to zero new cases, which is not happening without measures like Taiwan/NZ/South Korea, i.e. mandatory quarantine for people coming in.

Stevieluvsye

httpete wrote: »

And it is that approach that has allowed their citizens to enjoy normal lives for the past 100+ days while our lives have essentially been reduced to working drones slaving away. And our lives are going to be this way for the next few years so we better get used to it. Meanwhile, their citizens will soon be back to normal life while they await a vaccine.

Source or stop talking horsesh!t

Tenzor07

httpete wrote: »

They aren't going to re-open the pubs/entertainment sector. They weren't prepared to do at 20 cases a day in July, and the cases are not going back to those levels now that there are 50,000 flying people in weekly.Schools will further increase the numbers in September. Michael Martin has already said he can't guarantee the pubs will re-open this year; he can't say the truth because the public couldn't take it, the truth is they are not opening pubs until there is a vaccine. The only way they could re-open is if the numbers could be sustained at zero or close to zero new cases, which is not happening without measures like Taiwan/NZ/South Korea, i.e. mandatory quarantine for people coming in.

Don't get me wrong here, I'm no fan of the way FFFG have run everything from the Health service to the Economy, it's been one issue after another, nothing has been done right, and it's only through the fear instilled in the Irish people by them and RTE etc. that's made sure people support there ham fisted handling of all this.

I do think that you have an agenda in your call to close all airports/ports, i.e. "Keep those foreigners out of Our country".... which sadly we see everywhere...

thebaz

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Couldn’t agree more. Unfortunately many don’t seem to be interested in the similar curves all over the world that have all risen and fallen in a similar fashion and now depict flatlining deaths per million and negligable ICU admissions. Excess deaths are all more or less on course for their yearly averages in the majority of countries.

The collective psychosis that news media and governments have instilled in people is far more scary than Covid right now.

The strategy is all been driven by WHO - it is creating irrational Fear throughout society , in particular to the most vulnerable - I believe in 2 years time , ther will be serious questions asked on ther leadership of this pandemic - I know no one who has died or was seriously ill from virus , but already know many mental casualities - the forgotten people - whose well being doesnt seam to matter in this new Covid world.

httpete

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Source or stop talking horsesh!t

The source is logical deduction. They couldn't re-open pubs at 20 cases per day, we are not going back to 20 cases per day now that 50,000 people are flying into the country every week with no restrictions from all kinds of places.

Plus schools will increase the numbers in September, so by every measure there are no signs of the numbers getting down to the required level.

The government already pushed back the opening twice; the first pushback was particularly noteworthy as it was in mid-July and even though we were averaging only 20 cases per day and the govnt was under huge pressure from the publicans, they opted to push it back to Aug 10. Then Aug 31.

Now Michael Martin has stated he can't guarantee they will open this year. Of course he can't because he knows the numbers won't reach the mid-July levels again with the numbers flying in and the schools/universities opening.

The mid-July levels weren't even good enough for them to re-open, so I'd say they need, at the very least, sustained single digit figures new cases per day before they would re-open them.

Given how things have gone since the lockdown, and with the education sector soon re-opening, do you envisage us hitting single digit figures again? I don't. I believe they have made a calculated decision that the pubs are done until a vaccine arrives.

People who have a problem with mandatory quarantine need to start making some reasonable predictions about how are lives are going to look like over the next few years. It is not something that is going to be sorted anytime soon.

If you are happy with the current quality of life in this country, fair enough. I am not though. I am especially unhappy that we are looking at years of this.

Stevieluvsye

@Pete

I do believe that this winter will be a nightmare as every dose of flu will be suspected as potential COVID and personally i do believe there is worse to come over the winter period, but you can't be saying this will be with us for years.

For me personally i have been working from home since March and will probably be extended to July 21 (From a call i had today) and my work life balance has improved dramatically, so for me personally my quality of life has improved

httpete

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Don't get me wrong here, I'm no fan of the way FFFG have run everything from the Health service to the Economy, it's been one issue after another, nothing has been done right, and it's only through the fear instilled in the Irish people by them and RTE etc. that's made sure people support there ham fisted handling of all this.

I do think that you have an agenda in your call to close all airports/ports, i.e. "Keep those foreigners out of Our country".... which sadly we see everywhere...

Don't go playing the race card and try to conflate a legitimate opinion on our coronovirus policy with unconnected affairs in order to bolster your argument.

I have no problem with other nationalities living in this country. I do have an issue with one aspect of our current policy for safeguarding vulnerable citizens in which background checks for certain nations are not feasible, but that is a separate issue.

With quarantine at the airport people, can still come in as I said multiple times already, it just prevents those with the virus getting in and spreading it.

httpete

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

@Pete

I do believe that this winter will be a nightmare as every dose of flu will be suspected as potential COVID and personally i do believe there is worse to come over the winter period, but you can't be saying this will be with us for years.

I think the current setup will be in place until a vaccine arrives. Unfortunately I can't see how the government will be in a position to give the green light on the pubs re-opening given the points outlined in my last post.

Stevieluvsye

@Pete, i'm confused here. So this mandatory quarantine for two weeks, is it outside Ireland or Inside Ireland after arriving?

Stevieluvsye

httpete wrote: »

I think the current setup will be in place until a vaccine arrives. Unfortunately I can't see how the government will be in a position to give the green light on the pubs re-opening given the points outlined in my last post.

Pubs won't be open until next year, i'm sure of that

rahmalec

httpete wrote: »

The source is logical deduction. They couldn't re-open pubs at 20 cases per day, we are not going back to 20 cases per day now that 50,000 people are flying into the country every week with no restrictions from all kinds of places.

Plus schools will increase the numbers in September, so by every measure there are no signs of the numbers getting down to the required level.

The government already pushed back the opening twice; the first pushback was particularly noteworthy as it was in mid-July and even though we were averaging only 20 cases per day and the govnt was under huge pressure from the publicans, they opted to push it back to Aug 10. Then Aug 31.

Now Michael Martin has stated he can't guarantee they will open this year. Of course he can't because he knows the numbers won't reach the mid-July levels again with the numbers flying in and the schools/universities opening.

The mid-July levels weren't even good enough for them to re-open, so I'd say they need, at the very least, sustained single digit figures new cases per day before they would re-open them.

Given how things have gone since the lockdown, and with the education sector soon re-opening, do you envisage us hitting single digit figures again? I don't. I believe they have made a calculated decision that the pubs are done until a vaccine arrives.

People who have a problem with mandatory quarantine need to start making some reasonable predictions about how are lives are going to look like over the next few years. It is not something that is going to be sorted anytime soon.

If you are happy with the current quality of life in this country, fair enough. I am not though. I am especially unhappy that we are looking at years of this.

I work in the live events and arts sector.
Let's do a 6 week hard lockdown now, and mandatory quarantine after that.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Irish in NZ here - the level of glee in this thread from a couple of posters is pathetic and actually makes me a little ashamed.

Ordinary Kiwis on the ground weren't at all smug for the most part. Yep, the NZ government were not shy about celebrating and championing their success. That's because they have an election coming up in September. Nobody here really gives a ****e about what Ireland or anyone else thinks of NZ, as long as they can go about their normal lives, which has been the case now for almost 3 months.

The posters here who are saying NZ is now back to where Europe was in March seem to be living in hope. Take a look at yourself.

ginoginelli

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote: »

Irish in NZ here - the level of glee in this thread from a couple of posters is pathetic and actually makes me a little ashamed.

Ordinary Kiwis on the ground weren't at all smug for the most part. Yep, the NZ government were not shy about celebrating and championing their success. That's because they have an election coming up in September. Nobody here really gives a ****e about what Ireland or anyone else thinks of NZ, as long as they can go about their normal lives, which has been the case now for almost 3 months.

The posters here who are saying NZ is now back to where Europe was in March seem to be living in hope. Take a look at yourself.

Its bizzare. They seem genuinely happy that its re emerged in nz. I dont get it. Too much time on the internet maybe.

Timmyr

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote: »

Irish in NZ here - the level of glee in this thread from a couple of posters is pathetic and actually makes me a little ashamed.

Ordinary Kiwis on the ground weren't at all smug for the most part. Yep, the NZ government were not shy about celebrating and championing their success. That's because they have an election coming up in September. Nobody here really gives a ****e about what Ireland or anyone else thinks of NZ, as long as they can go about their normal lives, which has been the case now for almost 3 months.

The posters here who are saying NZ is now back to where Europe was in March seem to be living in hope. Take a look at yourself.

Irish guy in Auckland here, couldn't agree more with you.

Hope you're well

Stevieluvsye

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote: »

Irish in NZ here - the level of glee in this thread from a couple of posters is pathetic and actually makes me a little ashamed.

Ordinary Kiwis on the ground weren't at all smug for the most part. Yep, the NZ government were not shy about celebrating and championing their success. That's because they have an election coming up in September. Nobody here really gives a ****e about what Ireland or anyone else thinks of NZ, as long as they can go about their normal lives, which has been the case now for almost 3 months.

The posters here who are saying NZ is now back to where Europe was in March seem to be living in hope. Take a look at yourself.

Likewise, that i'm sure nearly everyone couldn't give two fiddlers about NZ. You guys have mitigating factors which have helped i outlined in an earlier post.

Obviously with us having an open door policy to numerous different highly populated countries we were always going see some kind of surges and will continue at least until the end of the year with schools and flu season not far off

But i hope everyone in NZ obviously says well

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Timmyr wrote: »

Irish guy in Auckland here, couldn't agree more with you.

Hope you're well

You too man, I'm in Wellington, looks like the whole country will be hunkering back down in a couple of days time.

Stay safe up there!

MadYaker

i_surge wrote: »

Nothing stopping us working with NI on that for the greater good. Just a lack of ambition.

EU freedom of movement can be suspended on health grounds, just some repatriation allowed, just like it was up until recently. Non argument.

This displays huge ignorance of the situation up north. We can't close the border.

Plumbthedepths

First time I stumbled on this thread, I cannot believe people are still making this comparison. Anyone actually do geography at school ?

JJayoo

Actually the real Covid champions we should be modelling ourselves on is the international space station, not a single case of Covid 19.

Followed closely by the research base in Antarctica, once again not a single case. I mean if a country like Ireland can't replicate the straight forward measures implemented by these two examples then it's a sorry state of affairs

i_surge

MadYaker wrote: »

This displays huge ignorance of the situation up north. We can't close the border.

If you think you can or you think you cannot, you are right.

MickeyLeari

From today’s Irish Times

Moving in and out of lockdown is a recipe for disaster
Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city, locked down again yesterday after it emerged the country had experienced four new community transmitted cases of coronavirus, the first in more than 100 days.
Citizens were told to work from home unless they were essential workers. Schools as well as bars, cafes and restaurants were closed until at least the end of the week.
So, on the basis of four members of the one family contracting the disease, an entire city of 1.6 million people was placed back in lockdown. Is this not madness?
We can and should follow many of New Zealand’s policies – particularly the country’s testing and tracing infrastructure and prime minister Jacinda Ardern’s proactive stance and direct communications strategy.
But moving in and out of lockdown on basis of a small cluster of cases – does one family even count as a cluster? – is a recipe for economic disaster.
The initial shutdown in the Republic has already triggered a major recession, one that we have yet to feel the full extent of. Nearly 800,000 workers are still reliant on the State for income supports to get by. That’s more than one-third of the workforce.
If we take New Zealand’s example and meet these mini-outbreaks with the sledgehammer of lockdown, we will turn the incoming recession into a depression, one that involves a prolonged period of high unemployment and business closures, which will come with a health warning of its own.
Research, published in the British Journal of Psychiatry, suggests the 2008 financial crisis was linked to 10,000 additional suicides in Europe and North America.
That threat has to be at the core of the Government’s decision-making from here on in, particularly when there are just 14 confirmed Covid-19 cases in the entire acute hospital system here.
Hospital admissions have fallen dramatically in part because most of those who are contracting the disease are younger people who don’t need to be hospitalised in the same numbers.
At the outset, the public health advice was to shutdown for a set period “to flatten the curve” and then to treat resurgences or flare-ups locally via aggressive testing and tracing. This was to preserve the health service from being overwhelmed by an initial spike in cases. That’s been achieved.
Living with the virus requires a different set of policies, more nuanced ones.
Poster child
New Zealand is held up internationally as the poster child of disease containment. It took the unprecedented step of closing its borders back in February and imposing strict quarantine rules at a time other countries failed to act or even grasp the level of threat. The borders here have never been closed. Airlines just grounded their fleets as no one could travel.
New Zealand, which has a similar population to the Republic – 4.8 million versus 4.9 million – only ever reported 89 cases a day even at the peak of the pandemic: here the daily case load was over 800 at one stage.
As a result, the Republic’s official death toll is 1,773 while New Zealand’s is just 22. There’s no disputing the country’s success in dealing with the pandemic. Its decision to act early and hard meant it was the first to exit lockdown and return to normal life with full sports stadiums and open nightclubs – a situation most countries are not even close to reaching – though it has maintained strict border controls.
By the same token, the country is 4,100km away from its nearest major neighbour, Australia, and sparsely populated compared with Europe, giving it a unique advantage in containing a pandemic. The Republic, by contrast, has a porous land border with Northern Ireland, a different jurisdiction with a different disease trajectory and its own containment protocols.
Meat processing plants
The Government last week reintroduced restrictions on Kildare, Offaly and Laois, putting the three counties into a partial lockdown for two weeks on the basis of several clusters in meat processing plants.
However, it’s questionable whether workplaces in these counties with no reported cases should be closed while those in other areas with reported cases are open. Laois can feel particularly hard done by as it reported no new cases on Monday.
Dr Ronan Glynn, acting chief medical officer, admitted on Monday that these measures were “blunt instruments”.
“It’s a fallacy to think that the measures we take are nuanced,” he said.
It may be that the Government is overly concerned with the prospect of schools reopening at the end of the month and is taking no chances with these flare-ups. We must, however, get to the point where these clusters can be dealt with more surgically and without shutting the economy around them.
Might it be better to impose tougher regulations on meat processing plants generally rather than the counties that contain them? That, after all, is the policy being pursued in relation to pubs.
Living with the virus or managing it is likely to involve a prolonged period of social distancing, mask wearing and perhaps permanent changes to the way we interact in shops, at work, or in schools. To presume otherwise is foolhardy.
Even severe containment measures won’t eliminate the virus. New Zealand has just proved that. Talk of a vaccine is premature. When Ireland fully opens up, the virus will still be circulating around the globe and much of the population here will face a renewed risk of infection.
Like it or not, that’s the new normal no matter how many times you lock down.

plodder

Good article above. It does seem crazy to lockdown a city as a result of four cases in the one family. More than that though, it proves once and for all, the utter futility of us trying to "squash the virus" to zero cases. With our proximity to Europe, it would never be achieved, never mind maintained for any period of time.

It's an outrageously stupid article. Of course NZ should nip it in the bud if they can so they can go back to living life as normal without any virus.

That article is basically saying to let it spread when you have four cases. Instead of stopping it, it's arguing to let is spread. Stupid as hell.

Hey China, don't stop it in Wuhan when there's four cases. Just let shlt spread. Lockdowns are mean.

What a retard.

plodder

New Zealand considers freight as possible source of new Covid-19 cluster
If it was caused by freight then what do we do? Ban foreign trade? That's not going to happen.

faceman

plodder wrote: »

New Zealand considers freight as possible source of new Covid-19 cluster
If it was caused by freight then what do we do? Ban foreign trade? That's not going to happen.

This

Surely the mandatory quarantine/NZ comparison flag wavers can see the insanity of their ploy now!

faceman

faceman wrote: »

This

Surely the mandatory quarantine/NZ comparison flag wavers can see the insanity of their ploy now!

They've just had three months of complete normality. No masks and no social distancing.

You think they shouldn't have taken the measures they did to achieve that?

faceman

httpete wrote: »

If we maintained the lockdown for another few weeks and brought the virus down to zero cases, we could have implemented mandatory quarantine at the airport and we would now be in a NZ/Taiwan situation going about our lives at normal. Instead of hundreds of thousand back in lockdown and the entertainment sector closed for business semi-permanently.

South Korea is the another country with mandatory quarantine. 52 million population so over 10 times the size of Ireland. Again, they have had a far, far better outcome than any European country.

I’m amazed people aren’t educating themselves on this topic

Travel bans and mandatory quarantines, in the vein you’re touting, are well documented in research. They don’t stop the spread of viruses. They can temporarily slow them but they’re only effective in the initial outbreak and slow a virus by a few weeks only

ECDC and WHO have reports and articles on their website about it too

Not everyone who uses an airport is going on holiday. People travel for work, family and other reasons. Some people live in Ireland for example and travel to the U.K. every week to work. Some people have family in other countries.

How much food and goods arrive in Ireland internationally? Will the virus leave those workers alone?

Travel is a minor source of spread. Europe’s internal borders are open nearly 2 months and we haven’t an explosion in travel related cases. Farr’s law is in motion. February and March won’t repeat itself.

Banning travel particularly in the long term is in humane, wrong and pandering to a request not backed by evidence

mandrake04

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote: »

Irish in NZ here - the level of glee in this thread from a couple of posters is pathetic and actually makes me a little ashamed.

Ordinary Kiwis on the ground weren't at all smug for the most part. Yep, the NZ government were not shy about celebrating and championing their success. That's because they have an election coming up in September. Nobody here really gives a ****e about what Ireland or anyone else thinks of NZ, as long as they can go about their normal lives, which has been the case now for almost 3 months.

The posters here who are saying NZ is now back to where Europe was in March seem to be living in hope. Take a look at yourself.

Question is will they be so smug locked up over Christmas in the winter 2nd wave while NZ enjoy a fairly normal summer Xmas?

faceman

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They've just had three months of complete normality. No masks and no social distancing.

You think they shouldn't have taken the measures they did to achieve that?

Covid came back. Even to an isolated island it came back. It will continue to come back until there is a cure or vaccine. Zero Covid is fantasy

faceman

faceman wrote: »

Covid came back. Even to an isolated island it came back. It will continue to come back until there is a cure or vaccine. Zero Covid is fantasy

Months at a time of zero covid isn't fantasy. Vietnam and NZ have just had it and I'd say everyone in either country would agree that the measures were worth it.

Vietnam and NZ will get rid of it again and life will be normal again for a few months. Rinse repeat. Better than constant social distancing and fear. I don't think it would work in the EU but don't just write it off elsewhere.