Anyone willing to admit they're already starting to relax restrictions?

Blaze420

no.8 wrote: »

Well done. Ok. Please. Let me use my brain.

So you're saying nobody in those x number of households have left the house in 2.5 months, none have been sick or are sick? Right. Your first point is pure rubbish. Didnt happen.
2nd and 3rd. Hopefully true. As youth likely know... you may wait up to 14 or more days to find out if thats the case.

Look Blaze (your temper suits that name). I'm happy you are better off mentally after meeting up. I want to have that too. Just don't agree with your assessment that there's no risk of getting the virus.

You misunderstand the name if you think It means angry

Look I understand your concerns but there is a bit of common sense needed now and not frantic scaremongering. The risk of catching this from people you know is extremely low to almost none and that’s just a fact now - unless your friends are frontline staff or involved in work in one of the clusters then it really is low risk. The virus will still be here in some form in August but as a public, we have done what was asked and we have done it for long enough now - look at other countries opening everything that were much worse hit than us. As I said previously, we just want to be the “good boys” of Europe even though other countries are now referring to our extended roadmap as draconian.

double jobbing

Got to be honest I am not putting up with not using cash for much longer. Tap and go is such an archaic system, it baffles me how anybody would prefer to use it. Not to mention the amount of places that don't let you see the card reader so you don't know how much you are paying.

Another fortnight and I'm back to cash only.

hmmm

TheDriver wrote: »

unfortunately there is reality and personality coupled with all advisors and scientific advice. Its akin to the person who happily lets their child jump off cliffs into the sea vs the other extreme parent who won't let their child ever get wet. You can take the advice on dangers but you need to realistically interpret them and apply to what is achievable.

Then as a society we need to decide how many deaths are acceptable. Other than a few far right types on the relaxations thread talking about people being "beyond economic usefulness", I've seen no-one say how many extra deaths they are willing to tolerate in return for politicians ignoring some or all of public health advice.

There are calls for inquiries into deaths of people in nursing homes. Are we happy to allow this to spread in the community, meaning staff will get sick (without being aware) and bring it into more nursing homes? Are we happy for it to get into hospitals and prisons? If we face a choice (like Italy) as to who should be treated in ICU, will we say who should get priority?

And which political party is going to put forward a platform of the above? I see FF calling for faster re-opening - has anyone asked them this question? If it all works out with no resurgence, great, but what happens if it does come back, and who is going to take responsibility for making that decision?

Pete_Cavan

hmmm wrote: »

What slack would you cut them (serious question) when the scientific and health advice the government is receiving is directly from our public health doctors?

If you were a politician and you are being told by public health to keep social distancing in place, keep 2 metres in place and keep people from congregating in large numbers, which of that advice would you stick your neck out to tell people to ignore? They'd be crucified in a future enquiry if deaths increased as a consequence.

First off, I'd be questioning why we are getting advice which differs from other countries who have been open three weeks and cases have dropped. The proof is there to be seen, the experiment is happening right now, why is that being ignored? We don't have to go full balls out open but the travel distance limit is pointless and plenty of businesses can open if they have adequate measures in place.

There is also a human behaviour science element to this, not just medical science. If people lose faith, it is much harder to get them back on side later. This needs to be recognised, particularly if a second wave in the immediate future actually does happen (for which there is no evidence).

Pete_Cavan

no.8 wrote: »

Ridiculous. Restrictions have been eased for what, a few weeks?
Already writing off a second wave?

Why, have we achieved herd immunity?
Are we all suddenly immune?
Did it just up and vanish?

The reality is the countries citizens (for the most part) did a great job in suppressing this virus. It may come back strong, maybe soon, maybe during the flu season. Absolutely foolish otherwise to think this is definitely going for good.

I'm longing for that freedom though. Think we all need a proper holiday

Nobody is saying that the virus is gone for good. Those wanting easing of restrictions recognise that it is not just going to vanish, that is why lockdown is only a short term measure, the longer it goes on, it does more harm than good (other illnesses, both physical and mental, haven't vanished either).

Covid-19 has been suppressed, as you have said, then why not ease restrictions faster? There are other countries ahead of us who have not been a growth in cases despite having eased restrictions three weeks ago. That speaks for itself, we can watch them and if they cases start growing strongly, we can react as necessary. What if a second wave is months away (or doesn't happen at all)? All we will have done by prolonging restrictions is to piss people off for no good reason (if the reason is the second wave and it happens anyway, the prolonged restrictions have been for nothing). Ease off now will at least give people a bit of hope.

How many are going to die from delayed diagnosis and lack of treatment of other issues while we wait for something which might never happen (or happen quite a while into the future)?

Pete_Cavan

hmmm wrote: »

This is simply not true. Just because you do not have some of the co-morbidities that make this virus more dangerous, does not mean you are immune and cannot become seriously sick.

And what do you tell a person who's cancer is not getting diagnosed now? "You are going to die due to late diagnosis but at least you didn't get a virus which may have made you seriously sick for a couple of weeks (or you might not have realised you had at all).

The HSE don't even know when BrestCheck or cervical screening will start again and there will likely be a huge backlog when they do open. How is this acceptable?

hmmm

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

And what do you tell a person who's cancer is not getting diagnosed now?

It's not an either/or. I expect the HSE to get screening programs back up and running even while managing the low level of Covid, I don't know what's keeping them.

GazzaL

double jobbing wrote: »

Got to be honest I am not putting up with not using cash for much longer. Tap and go is such an archaic system, it baffles me how anybody would prefer to use it. Not to mention the amount of places that don't let you see the card reader so you don't know how much you are paying.

Another fortnight and I'm back to cash only.

I still mainly use cash. Cash is king.

Away With The Fairies

Blaze420 wrote: »

Oh give over FFS, if everybody attending is in fine health and has been through the lockdown then what’s the issue?

They may feel fine being asymptomatic. Oh lord, how many times does somebody have to say this?

Blaze420

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

They may feel fine being asymptomatic. Oh lord, how many times does somebody have to say this?

You can stop saying it now, nobody cares anymore

99nsr125

hmmm wrote: »

Just because you use the words "scare mongering" doesn't make it true.

This is still a virus which puts large numbers of people in hospital and ICU, is still circulating and hasn't gone away.

No it doesn't

Read the CDC report, it's the same or less than the regular flu

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Pete_Cavan

hmmm wrote: »

It's not an either/or. I expect the HSE to get screening programs back up and running even while managing the low level of Covid, I don't know what's keeping them.

I suspect what's keeping them is that they fear allowing significant numbers of people to travel the country, sit in waiting rooms and generally interact with people, were such services open again would undermine the restrictions and arbitrary distance limitations they are advocating for the rest of the population. It would be admitting that the virus has been suppressed so the fear which is being used is less effective.

hmmm

99nsr125 wrote: »

No it doesn't

Read the CDC report, it's the same or less than regular flu

That's not true unfortunately. IFR of Covid is estimated at somewhere between 0.5 and 1% based on multiple studies, with wide variation depending on how old you are. Flu is somewhere between 0.01 and 0.1 across the population - i.e. 10 times less dangerous.

As well as that humans have no pre-existing immunity to Covid, so whereas Flu infects perhaps 10% of people a year, this potentially could infect a lot more. So you have a more dangerous disease which puts a lot of people in hospital, and a lot more people potentially who could get it and all in the one year. Once hospitals are over-run, the fatality rate spikes (e.g. Wuhan).

hmmm

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

I suspect what's keeping them is that they fear allowing significant numbers of people to travel the country, sit in waiting rooms and generally interact with people, were such services open again would undermine the restrictions and arbitrary distance limitations they are advocating for the rest of the population. It would be admitting that the virus has been suppressed so the fear which is being used is less effective.

I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories. If they were worried having people show up for screening would expose some conspiracy where they were locking down the country for no reason, it'd be a lot easier for them simply to recommend restrictions be lifted.

Blaze420

hmmm wrote: »

That's not true unfortunately. IFR of Covid is estimated at somewhere between 0.5 and 1% based on multiple studies, with wide variation depending on how old you are. Flu is somewhere between 0.01 and 0.1 across the population - i.e. 10 times less dangerous.

As well as that humans have no pre-existing immunity to Covid, so whereas Flu infects perhaps 10% of people a year, this potentially could infect a lot more. So you have a more dangerous disease which puts a lot of people in hospital, and a lot more people potentially who could get it. Once hospitals are over-run, the fatality rate spikes (e.g. Wuhan).

Yeah but we didn’t even come close to being overrun did we? A lot of private hospital space laying empty because of overblown bull**** dramatics at the start of this - 33k dead by August!!! Meanwhile the real tragedy is yet to unfold when all of those people with cancer etc are now consigned to death because the government and media whipped everyone in to a frenzy about how dangerous this ****in bold cousin of the flu was when it really wasn’t. The deaths yet to come from missed cancer screenings and appointments will make covid look like the ****ing teletubbies in comparison.

hmmm

Blaze420 wrote: »

Yeah but we didn’t even come close to being overrun did we?

We weren't far off - we very rapidly had 150 people in ICU beds with Covid (mid April was the peak I think). The restrictions that started in March were just in time, another week or two and we'd have been in trouble and would have needed all the ICU beds we could find/create.

machiavellianme

Haven't left the house since February, I'm still just as worried for my family as I was then.
Nothing has changed to convince me otherwise yet. I've no idea why or how others think different?

99nsr125

You sure read that report fast ?

It's a good source, do actually read it, it may not suit your thinking but do actually read it

hmmm wrote: »

That's not true unfortunately. IFR of Covid is estimated at somewhere between 0.5 and 1% based on multiple studies, with wide variation depending on how old you are. Flu is somewhere between 0.01 and 0.1 across the population - i.e. 10 times less dangerous.

As well as that humans have no pre-existing immunity to Covid, so whereas Flu infects perhaps 10% of people a year, this potentially could infect a lot more. So you have a more dangerous disease which puts a lot of people in hospital, and a lot more people potentially who could get it and all in the one year. Once hospitals are over-run, the fatality rate spikes (e.g. Wuhan).

SNNUS

machiavellianme wrote: »

Haven't left the house since February, I'm still just as worried for my family as I was then.
Nothing has changed to convince me otherwise yet. I've no idea why or how others think different?

Because with life is risk and staying indoors forever is not living.

Blaze420

machiavellianme wrote: »

Haven't left the house since February, I'm still just as worried for my family as I was then.
Nothing has changed to convince me otherwise yet. I've no idea why or how others think different?

Well nothin could change your mind if all you listen to is daily briefings from Tony or watching Claire Byrne in her stupid ass shed. Go read the news, go read what Tony said 2 weeks ago then go outside and look around you. The world hasn’t ended.

micks_address

We not taking the Mick but we have gone to places outside the 5k for walks in parks together as a family only foursome.. what I'm unsure of is if the 5k is as the crow flies or roads... As the crow flies probably haven't gone more than 5k by roads probably 5 to 10.. we have family in the northwest and we are in Dublin..don't think we will see them in person till there's a vaccine..

Blaze420

hmmm wrote: »

We weren't far off - we very rapidly had 150 people in ICU beds with Covid (mid April was the peak I think). The restrictions that started in March were just in time, another week or two and we'd have been in trouble and would have needed all the ICU beds we could find/create.

And what was specifically filling those ICU beds? It wasn’t joe public but nursing homes - same environments they completely dropped the ball on with precautions. Cause and effect - the public were never by majority part of this increase but the increase came from a cock eyed handling of the institutions that were getting hit the worst.

hmmm

99nsr125 wrote: »

You sure read that report fast ?

It's a good source, do actually read it, it may not suit your thinking but do actually read it

I know the one you're talking about, and it has been spun by conspiracy websites as somehow proof that this is no more dangerous than flu. The CDC paper was a modelling paper modelling various scenarios. All the scenarios took into account actions by the population in response to Covid - i.e. their fatality rate is based on certain levels of restrictions and voluntary social distancing being in place. It was not based on unchecked spread/"herd immunity" of the virus.

New York has 16,000 Covid deaths, and antibody tests suggest no more than 20% of the population were infected.

New York city had 2,000 flu deaths in 2018.

Clonmel1000

micks_address wrote: »

We not taking the Mick but we have gone to places outside the 5k for walks in parks together as a family only foursome.. what I'm unsure of is if the 5k is as the crow flies or roads... As the crow flies probably haven't gone more than 5k by roads probably 5 to 10.. we have family in the northwest and we are in Dublin..don't think we will see them in person till there's a vaccine..

And what if there’s no vaccine?

hmmm

Blaze420 wrote: »

And what was specifically filling those ICU beds? It wasn’t joe public but nursing homes - same environments they completely dropped the ball on with precautions. Cause and effect - the public were never by majority part of this increase but the increase came from a cock eyed handling of the institutions that were getting hit the worst.

This is a good breakdown of ICU cases, and their age range:
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)%20v1_website.pdf

The majority (119) were aged 55 to 64. There were 139 under 55 in ICU.

Blaze420

hmmm wrote: »

A lot of older sicker patients are not moved to ICU as it would be distressing for them.

This is a good breakdown of ICU cases, and their age range:
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)%20v1_website.pdf

The majority (119) were aged 55 to 64. There were 139 under 55 in ICU.

Ok so there’s start of it - 139 out 4.9 million. What was the total ICU number during the duration? It’s easy to be shocked at headline figures without looking at the wider number they are out of.

hmmm

Blaze420 wrote: »

Ok so there’s start of it - 139 out 4.9 million. What was the total ICU number during the duration? It’s easy to be shocked at headline figures without looking at the wider number they are out of.

We only had that number because we introduced restrictions. That's 139 out of 408 total (at the time of the report) btw.

Blaze420

hmmm wrote: »

We only had that number because we introduced restrictions. That's 139 out of 408 total (at the time of the report) btw.

408 out of 4.9 million.....

end of the road

Blaze420 wrote: »

Seasonal flu also has community transmission - we don’t seem to lock the whole country down each winter for that do we?

seasonal flue is irrelevant, there is no comparison between it and covid19.

Blaze420 wrote: »

It’s time to get real

yes, for you.
the rest of us got real ages ago.

Blaze420 wrote: »

if you are not in the high risk categories for this then you don’t really have anything to worry about

unless you don't actually know that you are high risk.
also, if enough people had got this, or even still do so, even though they will in all likely hood recover, it could be enough to overwhelm the health system.

Blaze420 wrote: »

if you are then you need to take responsibility for your own safety.

to allow that to happen, restrictions have to be implemented hence they were.

Blaze420 wrote: »

We are coming up to 3 months now - the economy will not survive much longer if we don’t start reintroducing some normality to the country.

and that is what we are doing, reintroducing normality, except in a responsible manner.
and no doubt things will be speeded up a bit for the final parts, but quite rightly it won't be on the basis of people going on a rager on boards.ie

Blaze420

end of the road wrote: »

seasonal flue is irrelevant, there is no comparison between it and covid19.



yes, for you.
the rest of us got real ages ago.



unless you don't actually know that you are high risk.
also, if enough people had got this, or even still do so, even though they will in all likely hood recover, it could be enough to overwhelm the health system.



to allow that to happen, restrictions have to be implemented hence they were.



and that is what we are doing, reintroducing normality, except in a responsible manner.
and no doubt things will be speeded up a bit for the final parts, but quite rightly it won't be on the basis of people going on a rager on boards.ie

Ah the End of The Logic is back to pontificate again...join the curtain twitchers pal and stay indoors and terrified until uncle tony tells you otherwise. Nothing i can say will change your mind and I couldn’t be arsed to anyway - some of us see the bigger picture and know the wheels have to restart now, not August.