Yosef Stocky Backspace wrote: » Physical distancing is not possible in a school unless the student population is cut to one quarter the normal number at most. So either physical distancing is out the window by September, or schools reopening in full won't happen. Many schools in the Dublin area have already been operating on a knife edge in terms of adequate teacher numbers for the past two years. Bring cocooning of the vulnerable, and isolation due the virus into the mix, and it would be difficult to see many of them being able to maintain adequate supervision let alone teaching. Cleaning would also need to looked at seriously in schools. Schools are filthy. They are barely cleaned at all. The virus would spread like wildfire if it got in.
brookers wrote: » I am a parent with two primary school going children There is no way I would send either of them back until I felt it was ok to do so. I have discussed this with other parents and they all feel the same. I think september is too soon. Personally I believe that the Leaving Cert wont go ahead and parents and students will just have to live with that. Their subjects will be graded and hopefully their grades will get an added bonus of being elevated by at least two grades to make up for what is an extraordinary time and to be fair to those students who may be under stress, not able to study for internet reasons, homelessness, living in a hotel room, parents who have addictive problems etc The teaching unions have not agreed to any of this either.
trapp wrote: » Very difficult to know but September return far from certain. The effects of these closures lasting long into next school year will be devastating for vulnerable children and the thousands of children living in our disadvantaged communities all across Dublin, Limerick etc. Even in September they'll be nearly 6 months out of school. And it's not just an education issue, far from it. Many, many children rely on school for food and some sort of respite from chaotic, possibly violent, addiction ruined homes. The professors and doctors running the public health at the moment are doing really well but they don't know what it's like on the ground in our most disadvantaged communities. Schools will need to prepare staggered timetables, perhaps some of the pupils attend on a monday, others on a tuesday etc., staggered finishing times to allow for social distancing, social distancing in the classroom, one pupil per desk etc. There are ways around it but work will need to be done to prepare. I expect a January return for schools unfortunately.
Downlinz wrote: » If the public aren't complicit with the guidelines and the lockdown slows the spread less than hoped to a point where we're still getting hundreds of cases each week then it would be very difficult to see schools reopening until a vaccine arrives.
Pete_Cavan wrote: » The virus is the biggest problem now but the scales can tip the other direction and sooner than many think.
ILoveYourVibes wrote: » As a 'species' from a clinic cold perspective yes. As a functioning society ...no. Fatalities have been low due to lockdowns and the fact that countries tried to save their healthservice. If we try to 'live with it'. That would not be the case. And its not the flu ...mild is not the word. I have heard many figures banded about as to how many are asymptomatic some say 10 % some say 50% some say 70%. Its not predictable who is going to die. Its not older people. Its everyone. So no...i don't think we will get to a point when people will simply say lets take our chances. I think certainly Boris Jonson getting it has prevented that.
boege wrote: » If you do not know how many people are infected then you can accurately model into the future.
mirrorwall14 wrote: » I suspect that crèches and the junior groups and preschools who need most parental supervision will be first back to get parents back to work. That and the Leaving certs will be the goals. Everything else is completely up in the air I think
ILoveYourVibes wrote: » I doubt they will do this here as the govt has constantly defended isolating its testing to priority groups and those with 2 or more symptoms. Yet at the same time have expressed publicly that they have an idea of infection rates. I have suggested they can't have and idea of infection rates as someone has mentioned before we don't all show symptoms many or us will have no symptoms. But this has been hotly denied by supporters of this govt. I don't see them doing this. And i don't think we have the capability. That's interesting what is happening in Italy as i have been asking people why the govt hasn't done this here.
boege wrote: » There are some experiments underway in Germany and Italy where they have encircled entire towns. They are carrying out 100% testing of the population in these towns. This will give an estimate of infection rates. Since they have fatality rates (sortof!) then they can start to get a more accurate figure of fatality rates but it will have an error margin. As they test larger populations then the error margin will get smaller.
ILoveYourVibes wrote: » Will we ever know the true fatality rate though?
Pete_Cavan wrote: » The indications are that with Covid-19, 50% of infected are asymptomatic, of those that do have symptoms, 80% are mild and recover without medical assistance. I think we will live with it easier than people think. Once other problems start mounting, people will be more willing to live with it.
ILoveYourVibes wrote: » I don't think we really know when things will have changed. We can't actually live with the virus unless things are able to go back etc. We couldn't live with polio we couldn't live with measles etc. We can't live with this. It would collapse our society before we evolved to have immunity. Just like every other airborne virus we need a vaccine. And it has to be good enough that life can go back to normal. And we have to roll it out to the entire population or at least enough of a percentage to create herd immunity. I will leave it up to the experts to say how many people that is.
boege wrote: » I think this is a fairly good assessment based on what we know at this point. There are still a lot of unknowns which makes decisions making a challenge. Once the true fatality rate becomes known then we will be able to make some decisions - better treatments will drive down fatality rates further. We cannot plan around a vaccine as there is no reasonable timeline for one.
Pete_Cavan wrote: » A lot will have changed by September. The one certainty is that we won't have a vaccine so the vulnerable will have to cacoon and the low risk will have to get the virus and recover. The current restrictions will be eased but social distancing, working from home to the greatest extent possible, no large gatherings, etc. will remain. Increased hospital capacity, better treatments and more experience will have less people dying. Covid-19 will become less of a concern for people as their other problems become bigger issues for them. We are going to have to learn to live with the virus and life will go on, just not the same as before.
Pete_Cavan wrote: » A lot will have changed by September. We are going to have to learn to live with the virus and life will go on, just not the same as before.
Laois_Man wrote: » You dont have to have any such feeling about it. The Dept of health and the Taoiseach have all along openly stated that is the objective
ILoveYourVibes wrote: » There is a lot of misdirection coming from the govt and media. Its going to bite them in the end.
whatdoicare wrote: » TBH most parents, including myself, are not realistically expecting to be sending kids back to school before September at the earliest. This year is a complete write off.
ILoveYourVibes wrote: » I have a feeling ( and I could be wrong ) but that the Irish effort is just slowing it making it longer drawn out so we can deal with it while people recover.
