Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

Nijmegen

Thread 6 howareya! If the cases of Coronavirus are set to double every 3.5 days, what's the rate at which we're opening new threads?!

America really is becoming the new Iran. Relatively few cases versus the population but even the transport security agents are coming down with it, indicating lots of people passing them by have had it (or one of their number passing it on) https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/11/coronavirus-update-live-news-uk-health-minister-italy-lockdown-australia-us-china-stock-markets-outbreak-latest-updates?page=with:block-5e68dbea8f085f0b8d946506#block-5e68dbea8f085f0b8d946506

KWAG2019

There’s going to be a lot of movement in stats as the pandemic develops. Merkel has said 60% infection rate eventually which might imply this is going to be around for a year or so. Best hope is vaccine in 12-18 months and social distancing, isolation/quarantines/smaller gatherings and good hygiene. There will need to be adjustments to how we have lived and travelled.

Older people and immune compromised people are going to have narrower lives into the future. Like the song says, it’s later than you think.

Bob24

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856?at_campaign=64&at_custom4=F7A37DE8-6390-11EA-8BAF-C18C4744363C&%2338;at_custom1=%255Bpost+type%255D&%2338;at_medium=custom7&%2338;at_custom3=%2540BBCWorld&%2338;at_custom2=twitter
Chancellor Merkel says up to 70% of Germans may contract coronavirus

Is she telling people she has made a choice to let people getting sick and provide care for those who need it rather that aggressively attempting to contain the virus?

70% is as scenario whereby there is very little attempts for containment.

ITman88

bekker wrote: »

Came across interesting article in National Geographic 10/03/20

Based on research and WHO reports, it may be for many an eyeopener regarding susceptibility of 20-50 year old cohort, among other widely held mistaken givens.

These underlying conditions make coronavirus more severe, and they're surprisingly common
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/these-underlying-conditions-make-coronavirus-more-severe-and-they-are-surprisingly-common/?sf231272833=1

cf following quotes.

'But evidence also shows that COVID-19 is more fatal across all age groups than seasonal influenza, with death rates six to 10 times higher for those under 50. Moreover, death isn’t the only danger, and severe cases of COVID-19 are more common among young adults than you might think.'
{unfortunately comparative graph does not display properly here}

....

One alarming distinction with COVID-19 is the long incubation period before symptoms appear, which ranges from two to 14 days.

....

The kids are alright?
At the same time, all the data collected so far suggest that COVID-19 is rare and less severe in children. Through February 11, the Chinese CDC recorded 44,600 confirmed cases, but only 400 involved kids under 9 years old, and none died. So does this mean children are less likely to be infected, or that they just don't get very sick?

“All of us in the field think the latter is true,” says John Williams, chief of the division of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. Early tracing among close contacts and in households has found that children are just as likely to catch the novel coronavirus as adults. The low number of childhood cases reported so far could be due to testing being concentrated at hospitals, Williams notes. “Once testing involves more mild patients, outpatients in clinics, and doctor’s offices, you will find more adults and probably a lot more kids.”

National geographic in on it now, they’ve realised the hysteria sells so well among the vulnerable and anxiety ridden.

Looney1

Will people get the 305 euro if there is a lock down.

Mic 1972

Deleted User wrote: »

Which makes it vital for the majority to engage with the modified behaviour regime, plus a lockdown too I think.

Defenitely. Lock down now will save lives.
I don't even want to imagine a scenario like Italy where people are sent back home to die because of age or per-existing conditions. They filled up hospitals with only people outside the at-risk categories

skepticalme

Interview with an Italian doctor.


Virus is worse than a bomb.


https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE

ArchXStanton

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Cork teacher self-isolates after contact with Covid-19 case; Colaiste Chriost Rí to remain open

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/cork-teacher-self-isolates-after-contact-with-covid-19-case-colaiste-chriost-ri-to-remain-open-987240.html

You couldnt make this stuff up

There's no room for f**k ups with this virus, we've seen plenty so far from that nursing home in the US to that cult in Korea

Kaisr Sose

flynnlives wrote: »

Some real heads in the sand on this thread.

In UCHG there are only 10 icu beds.

If 200 people get infected in Galway 5% of those will need critical care and boom! just like that there is no more icu beds.
There are now 50 cases on the Island.


But sure lets wait and see! It will be grand!


WAKE THE **** UP FFS!

Therre is no need to be so alarmist or dramatic. No country in the world woikd have enough ICU resources to cover things like this. China had to costruct a facility and they are uniquely placed to be able to scale up like that.

HOWEVER WE ARE NOT AT THAT POINT YET

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/IrishTimes/status/1237730129217896449?s=20

Boggles

Dept. of Health want visitor restrictions lifted from Nursing Homes.

Nursing Homes told them basically to go fúck themselves this morning.

My confidence is slipping TBH.

laurah591

dougm1970 wrote: »

yes...and this was like the lady who rang newstalk yesterday and had an obvious dry cough and the presenter (ciara...) who's seemingly a doctor, told her it was probably just a cold and not to worry about it....my concern is these could be carriers.....but, anyway, besides that, i'm wondering, how did the cases that got tested as positive and were community cases, where they had no contact with other cases, get tested at all...how did they qualify to get tested ?....i have a feeling thats been answered in other thread but i missed it and am still curious.

Probably displaying symptoms and a risk to health care workers so we're tested .... I don't know.
Corks 1st patient - had a CT scan and it was discovered that he should be tested, don't know 're the others

So do we have 4 cases of community transmission now... Waterford, Cork & the East (potentially Dublin?)

Nijmegen

Really interesting that Poland has shut all schools at 25 confirmed cases. When the schools shut is the new when will they cancel Paddy's Day. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/11/1583924664000/Poland-shuts-schools/

ITman88

wakka12 wrote: »

Have you actually checked South Koreans statistics? The mortality rate is 0.8% there, with many others in serious conditions. South Korea's stats are also skewed because half of the cases are cult members half of which are aged below 30

0.78% though amongst the detected cases, so it’s possibly even lower.
Look I’m an optimist, you think 1% is fantasy, South Korea’s example said it’s not.

Duke of Url

I think this is the UK but could be for any Country

facehugger99

Nice to see the crowd numbers at Cheltenham.

DrumSteve

murphaph wrote: »

By training up doctors in 2 weeks or what? They are pressing all sorts of non-related (eg orthopaedic) doctors into tackling this. They have recalled retired doctors. If the virus wasn't threatening the world there would be doctors from the rest of the EU in there helping. Italy won't get a handle on the CFR until most of their elderly population has died.

Or until the results of the lock down take effect.

Rob A. Bank

A fire brigade is called to a smoking building, in a neighborhood where many houses (countries) nearby are already on fire.

The fire chief says to his crew "Hang on lads, keep the fire hoses turned off until the fire gets a good grip."

This seems to be the current government strategy !

Bit cynical

murphaph wrote: »

Angela Merkel stated in a press conference that 60 to 70 percent of all Germans will be infected. That's the exact opposite of slim enough and Ireland will be no different once it takes a hold.

It is a matter of managing it so that the peak does not overwhelm services. From an individual point of view, if you are going to get it, you either want to get it early or late but not at the peak.

tobefrank321

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/IrishTimes/status/1237730129217896449?s=20

There's unlikely to be any left there. I was in one yesterday. A man and woman grabbed the last 10 of them, for what I don't know. They are probably being sold on ebay as we speak.

Failure to impose rationing - another failure by our government/HSE.

Downlinz

Kaisr Sose wrote: »

Therre is no need to be so alarmist or dramatic. No country in the world woikd have enough ICU resources to cover things like this. China had to costruct a facility and they are uniquely placed to be able to scale up like that.

HOWEVER WE ARE NOT AT THAT POINT YET

The whole point is to take radical action now to prevent ever being at that point.

If we do hit that point then we're screwed, avoidable deaths will happen and it's no use talking about it then. Now is the only time to talk about it and it shouldn't be dismissed as "alarmist".

It's interesting to look at these threads from 2 weeks ago and most things being labelled as alarmist or excessive then are viewed as sensible in hindsight today.

Martina1991

The Irish Times are today reporting that there are plans for increased testing in hospital laboratories in Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford. Along with the NVRL this would increase capacity to thousands of samples a day.

Testing criteria has also been expanded to those with respiratory symptoms but no history of travel to effected areas.

Mic 1972

Spain had 36 cases on March 2nd
Now they have 1,700

ThePopehimself

Wombatman wrote: »

A few teachers on here looking for a holiday.

Ah FFS. Not that. Don't start that up. Not on this one.

namloc1980

ITman88 wrote: »

0.78% though amongst the detected cases, so it’s possibly even lower.
Look I’m an optimist, you think 1% is fantasy, South Korea’s example said it’s not.

Too early to call mortality rates at this point or to draw any conclusions from it.

Irish Stones

Deleted User wrote: »

Italy’s numbers today will be interesting, they dropped dramatically yesterday.

That's not true.
The low numbers of yesterday are due to the fact that not all hopsitals reported the new cases because of a problem in the communication.
Today we should have the real number, along with those missed yesterday.

namloc1980

Martina1991 wrote: »

The Irish Times are today reporting that there are plans for increased testing in hospital laboratories in Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford. Along with the NVRL this would increase capacity to thousands of samples a day.

Testing criteria has also been expanded to those with respiratory symptoms but no history of travel to effected areas.

Incoming significant increase in numbers. Should've been done a week ago.

ITman88

namloc1980 wrote: »

Too early to call mortality rates at this point or to draw any conclusions from it.

Exactly things will look brighter come Summer

Mic 1972

Irish Stones wrote: »

That's not true.
The low numbers of yesterday are due to the fact that not all hopsitals reported the new cases because of a problem in the communication.
Today we should have the real number, along with those missed yesterday.

do you have a link to that about the communication issue?

scamalert

WTF is with all this lockdown talks- theoretically we can lock down for 1-3 weeks, then yes maybe no more cases, but open up then few people come in infected **** starts all over again, its not something that can be tracked or seen, seems more like either you get it or not and ride it out scenario.