Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

Beasty

XXXIV cases already in the Republic, XVI in the North. I fully expect temperatures to rise further (and if they do, call a doctor!) but would request everyone pays attention to the mod warnings carried over from earlier threads and set out below. In particular please remain civil to each other

First thread

Thread II

Thread III

Thread IV

Thread V

Mod warnings:

Beasty wrote: »

OK, time to step in with some mod instructions:

1. Please interact in a civil manner
2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
3. If you have a problem with a post report it and leave the modding to the mods

In terms of thread content:

4. Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
5. Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
6. Terms such as "sinus", "airborne", "aerosol" have little relevance at this time in this jurisdiction. Ultimately though if cases are discovered in Ireland please pay attention to the relevant authorities and what they advise/recommend, and not some randomer(s) on the internet

All the above is me talking as a complete layman on the subject. Like everything in this thread do not treat it as chapter and verse, beyond paying attention to items 1-3 above

Any questions please PM me - do not try and dissect this post in-thread

Beasty wrote: »

Last time it was a "suggestion"/request

Now it's an instruction

Stop all the tit for tat stuff on the stats. None of us are in full possession of the facts and none of us can draw any "definitive" conclusions. Bottom line. It's serious. Not serious in Ireland at this stage, but may become so. Anyone caught up in this is not going to take much solace from any stats however they are complied

Any questions PM me - do not respond to this warning in-thread

Beasty wrote: »

OK

A number of posts have been sanctioned although it could have been many more

Could everyone please re-read the warnings in the OP

Could I also re-emphasise - attack the post, not the poster

I understand people can get very emotional about this sort of thing. Regardless of that there is no reason this cannot be discussed in a civil manner. Yes there are people implying there is little to worry about. Equally there are some doom and gloom merchants in the thread. Despite appearances I actually think most posters are probably somewhere in the middle recognising this is serious, but at this stage not overly so in Ireland

Whatever your own views are please recognise others are entitled to different views., Even if at different extremes please do not try and repeatedly ram your views down the throats of those who have differing views

In due course we may well have a far better understanding of this virus, but at present I do not think anyone can claim anything approaching a full understanding, and as always we need to take information posted by anonymous internet posters with a pinch of salt

Any questions PM me

Beasty wrote: »

I'm opening this one up with a very clear warning. Cut out all this cover-up/conspiracy stuff. If you have a reliable source quote it (not just their words but provide a link to a reliable source) - otherwise your claims carry little if any weight

Beasty wrote: »

A reminder to everyone

It is against site rules to seek or offer any medical advice. Please do not post here about your symptoms asking what to do. Contact your doctor by telephone and they can advise you as appropriate

Beasty wrote: »

A few reminders:

1. Some posters have been less than civil in their posting - particularly in the last few hours. Continue interacting in an uncivil manner and your posting privileges will be removed

2. Until something is reported "officially" treat anything you read here with suspicion. I am not saying posters are deliberately posting misleading or incorrect information, but this site, as well as other social media outlets cannot be considered "verifiable" news outlets. Of course if the likes of the HSE have a verified Twitter account we can assume what they post is accurate. Randomers on here or elsewhere cannot be considered "official" or "reliable" sources

3. I have little doubt there is some kind of lag in reporting "official" updates to numbers as I equally have little doubt there will be procedures to follow before any case becomes formally "confirmed". Hence you may feel you have information that contradicts any "official" information. That's not necessarily the case - it may be that you have access to information before others. Regardless of that do not post it as an actual case here. We can only go by official updates and you can expect others to be sceptical about anything not coming from an official source. That does not make your information wrong, but it needs to be formally verified before you should be claiming anything is "fact"

All threadbans carry over, but we will reconsider if anyone wishes to discuss it further via PM

Please remember we have a Conspiracy Theories forum for speculation. Treat any information posted here as if it's from an anonymous internet poster. No-one is an expert here whatever they may claim. Please provide reliable sources where you can, and if you cannot please caveat your claims accordingly

Duke of Url

Stay Safe Kids!

Fr_Dougal

Hail Mary, who art in heaven.

touts

Rugby. In the public interest we are postponing our biggest games until later in the year.

Soccer. In the public interest we will play international games behind closed doors.

Formula 1. In the public interest we will cancel races.

Horse Racing. Screw you! This doesn't hurt our horses. Just give us your money.

Snow Garden

I am still quite positive about it all

Fr_Dougal

Snow Garden wrote: »

I am still quite positive about it all

Quick, isolate him!

suicide_circus

Snow Garden wrote: »

I am still quite positive about it all

would you say you have tested positive?

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/SaMcDuff/status/1237685221211987968?s=20

JeffKenna

I miss Brexit

Christy42

I love the question if you want email notifications. This thread would kill my inbox in a minute.

wakka12

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-n...906d0137664fc6
Almost half of Bahrain's citizens evacuated from Iran have tested positive for coronavirus.
Iran must have several million cases at this point in time

Nermal

RandomName2 wrote: »

20,000 deaths in Ireland is a reasonable scenario. I would prefer if people who go on about 'scaremongering' or 'hysterical nonsense' would own this number and say 'yes, I think that is a more reasonable cost than the financial burden that would be involved in halting the spread'.

50,000 people die a year in Ireland anyway.

I would spend 0.1% of GNP to delay the extra 20,000 deaths, €300M. Not more.

I think we are going to end up spending more than that.

flynnlives

Some real heads in the sand on this thread.

In UCHG there are only 10 icu beds.

If 200 people get infected in Galway 5% of those will need critical care and boom! just like that there is no more icu beds.
There are now 50 cases on the Island.


But sure lets wait and see! It will be grand!


WAKE THE **** UP FFS!

DrumSteve

It's not the flu.

KWAG2019

First page!

circadian

Is anyone doing any work anymore? May as well just send everyone home.

Stevieluvsye

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Quick, isolate him!

RandomName2

Nermal wrote: »

50,000 people die a year in Ireland anyway.

I would spend 0.1% of GNP to delay the extra 20,000 deaths, €300M. Not more.

I think we are going to end up spending more than that.

No, there's usually 30,000 deaths annually.

It may be double that figure with covid-19 outbreak.

They say you can't put a price on a human life, but that's clearly not the case as that's effectively being done by the European governments. I think this was foolish as a fast effective response would have been more cost effective than what we got.

4068ac1elhodqr

Prepare ye! For the times they are a changing, and near.

flynnlives

Mr.S wrote: »

Of the 34 cases in Ireland, how many are currently in ICU?

I think one or two are seriously ill which is in line with internatioanl rates.

Duke of Url

wakka12 wrote: »

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-n...906d0137664fc6
Almost half of Bahrain's citizens evacuated from Iran have tested positive for coronavirus.
Iran must have several million cases at this point in time

Yep. But Italy could also have at lease a million cases also.

eldamo

the guy who sits behind me in work is just back from madrid.

someone in the office raised it to the office manager that they were worried about him.

my boss refused to send him home, we go off an alert list from the robert koch institute to decide how bad an area is.

he isn't feeling well

has a doctors appointment at 1pm.

IT'S HAPPENING!

Dr. Colossus

Would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open... and feast on the goo inside?

iguana

Mr.S wrote: »

Of the 34 cases in Ireland, how many are currently in ICU?

3 afaik. And the 3 of them are the community transmission cases.

NIMAN

I missed the Claire Byrne Show the other night, but I assume this is the transcript of the conversation she had with the infected patient?

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0310/1121355-coronavirus-patient-claire-byrne-live/

It really does sound like he's grand, not what the media or her show would like. Not sensational enough!

Cilldara_2000

NIMAN wrote: »

I missed the Claire Byrne Show the other night, but I assume this is the transcript of the conversation she had with the infected patient?

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0310/1121355-coronavirus-patient-claire-byrne-live/

It really does sound like he's grand, not what the media or her show would like. Not sensational enough!

They'd hardly have been able to interview someone in an ICU.

CSWS101

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

No touching of your face please.

gabeeg

RandomName2 wrote: »

No, there's usually 30,000 deaths annually.

It may be double that figure with covid-19 outbreak.

They say you can't put a price on a human life, but that's clearly not the case as that's effectively being done by the European governments. I think this was foolish as a fast effective response would have been more cost effective than what we got.

Oh you can but a price on a human life alright. Sure your man just did it

300,000,000 divide by 20,000 = €13,636

Seems very scabby to me given their likely PSRI contributions over the course of a lifetime

Tordelback

Over and over again I see people responding with incredulity about worst-case estimates, as if the number itself is inconceivable, that someone is pulling a fast one somehow. I honestly think it's because people are atrocious at working out percentages.

A very small percentage of a very large number is still a very large number. Even an optimistic 1% mortality rate against a minimal 10% of the population infected is 4,500 deaths and 90,000 hospital admissions - with the enormous impact that would have on every other medical issue.

These are simple, basic calculations. Incredulity isn't going to help.

NIMAN

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

They'd hardly have been able to interview someone in an ICU.

There's 2 sides to every story.

This guy has the virus too. Can't discount his story.

For every person who is ill in ICU, there are many more who have the virus and are not bad.

We can't let the media scare stories lead the agenda.

frillyleaf

Has anyone got a timeline for Ireland’s cases?

Eg 27th Feb. x cases
03rd March. x cases
08th March x cases

Ipso

Should we be seeing some of the early cases near the recovery stages?

Stevieluvsye

Turkey has confirmed its first case of the coronavirus.

Turkey's tourism sector, which accounts for about 13% of its economy, stepped up calls on the government for financial help to deal with the expected negative impact of the outbreak.

Health Minister Fahrettin Koca confirmed that a Turkish man with a high fever and cough had been diagnosed as having the virus and had been isolated.

eviltimeban

circadian wrote: »

Is anyone doing any work anymore? May as well just send everyone home.

If by work you mean spending the day on the couch with the laptop open on this thread, then yes, working very hard!

Pintman Paddy Losty

Tordelback wrote: »

Over and over again I see people responding with incredulity about worst-case estimates, as if the number itself is inconceivable, that someone is pulling a fast one somehow. I honestly think it's because people are atrocious at working out percentages.

A very small percentage of a very large number is still a very large number. Even an optimistic 1% mortality rate against a minimal 10% of the population infected is 4,500 deaths and 90,000 hospital admissions - with the enormous impact that would have on every other medical issue.

These are simple, basic calculations. Incredulity isn't going to help.

The 1% figure is likely a way overestimation though.

EmmetSpiceland

eldamo wrote: »

the guy who sits behind me in work is just back from madrid.

someone in the office raised it to the office manager that they were worried about him.

my boss refused to send him home

This is how it “spreads”, stupidity. Utter stupidity.

What was that clown thinking turning up to work after returning from a place “riddled” with the virus?

He’ll be the type to go to the hospital next instead of just staying in bed. Old people, and those with underlying “conditions”, will die because of morons like this taking up valuable bed space.

Idiots are the biggest danger to our society.

Naggdefy

Snow Garden wrote: »

I am still quite positive about it all

Are you whistling in the dark cos you're scared

flynnlives

Tordelback wrote: »

Over and over again I see people responding with incredulity about worst-case estimates, as if the number itself is inconceivable, that someone is pulling a fast one somehow. I honestly think it's because people are atrocious at working out percentages.

A very small percentage of a very large number is still a very large number. Even an optimistic 1% mortality rate against a minimal 10% of the population infected is 4,500 deaths and 90,000 hospital admissions - with the enormous impact that would have on every other medical issue.

These are simple, basic calculations. Incredulity isn't going to help.

Its not incredulity.
We have hard facts from various countries who are in different stages of the epidemic.

We have a window to act. But that window is closing.

We also have a worse healthcare system then Italy in terms of resources.

People here are focuisng on the small mortality rates in places like South korea and Germany.
But they fail to release that if the health system becomes overwhelmed the mortality rate will jump as there wont be enough resources.

Tippex

frillyleaf wrote: »

Has anyone got a timeline for Ireland’s cases?

Eg 27th Feb. x cases
03rd March. x cases
08th March x cases

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Cilldara_2000

NIMAN wrote: »

There's 2 sides to every story.

This guy has the virus too. Can't discount his story.

For every person who is ill in ICU, there are many more who have the virus and are not bad.

We can't let the media scare stories lead the agenda.

Have a look at the multiple testimonies from health workers in northern Italy. These are not media scare stories. There are literally people being left to die because of the strain on the health system.

Funsterdelux

Theres definitely going to be an African element in all of this, someone mentioned Egypt being the cause of some tourists getting invected.

African elephant in the room as it were

Stevieluvsye

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

This is how it “spreads”, stupidity. Utter stupidity.

What was that clown thinking turning up to work after returning from a place “riddled” with the virus?

He’ll be the type to go to the hospital next instead of just staying in bed. Old people, and those with underlying “conditions”, will die because of morons like this taking up valuable bed space.

Idiots are the biggest danger to our society.

Welcome in E

eviltimeban

Ipso wrote: »

Should we be seeing some of the early cases near the recovery stages?

Well we had the one guy who recovered. But the various tracker websites aren't showing that.

I wonder in total how many Irish people, children and adults, were in Northern Italy at midterm. I know some 4th years in my kids school were, including a teacher I met at the PT meeting the week after... :rolleyes:

Cilldara_2000

frillyleaf wrote: »

Has anyone got a timeline for Ireland’s cases?

Eg 27th Feb. x cases
03rd March. x cases
08th March x cases

https://virusncov.com/covid-statistics/ireland

tobefrank321

touts wrote: »

Rugby. In the public interest we are postponing our biggest games until later in the year.

Soccer. In the public interest we will play international games behind closed doors.

Formula 1. In the public interest we will cancel races.

Horse Racing. Screw you! This doesn't hurt our horses. Just give us your money.

All sports events from International sport down to an U10 blitz need to be cancelled from this weekend on.
Mixing of crowds and players one reason.
But most important reason is we don't need our ED staff treating Johnny who was concussed in a game between Clonglowes and Blackrock, or Mary who fractured a finger playing camogie. There are much more important things than sport at a time like this.

SafeSurfer

I’m currently in a Mc Donald’s in a provincial town. Place is empty. Myself and 2 other customers.

PhoenixParker

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

The 1% figure is likely a way overestimation though.

It's not. If services get overwhelmed and there are no ICU beds then people who could be saved die. It's happening right now in Italy.

Pintman Paddy Losty

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

This is how it “spreads”, stupidity. Utter stupidity.

What was that clown thinking turning up to work after returning from a place “riddled” with the virus?

He’ll be the type to go to the hospital next instead of just staying in bed. Old people, and those with underlying “conditions”, will die because of morons like this taking up valuable bed space.

Idiots are the biggest danger to our society.

What? Sure he's probably not sick?

The chances of catching it are slim enough. He's right to go to work unless he is showing symptoms.

Naggdefy

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

This is how it “spreads”, stupidity. Utter stupidity.

What was that clown thinking turning up to work after returning from a place “riddled” with the virus?

He’ll be the type to go to the hospital next instead of just staying in bed. Old people, and those with underlying “conditions”, will die because of morons like this taking up valuable bed space.

Idiots are the biggest danger to our society.

That's the problem, at least 1 in 10 are idiots, it's a lot of infection spreaders.

Add that to the Cheltenham crowd.

solidasarock

Dublin Bus drivers still cramming people in like coffin ships during rush hour this morning.

Someone should tell them to chill on that.

FishOnABike

Dr. Colossus wrote: »

Would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open... and feast on the goo inside?

Thanks, reminds me it's almost time of year for Cadbury Creme Eggs.