Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

un5byh7sqpd2x0

MadYaker wrote: »

Unfortunately many people in this thread are too dumb to tell the difference.

There’s a lot of that in this thread. We seem to have graduated about 3 million Irish experts in infectious disease control in the past 2 weeks.

ACitizenErased

The fact that the DFA have recommended against all travel to Lombardy yet flights to/from Milan continue to land and takeoff in Dublin today just sums up the Government’s response honestly.

un5byh7sqpd2x0

SusanC10 wrote: »

DFA website not updated yet. Still advising against travel to 4 areas.

The 4 areas haven’t changed.

MadYaker

National Public Health Emergency Team are due to give an update later with new numbers. What do people think? Another small increase or big jump?

Blueshoe

Popoutman wrote: »

Double that number every 6 days. Now you see where the 1.0 million comes from in a few months. 5000 people infected at the end of April, of which 1000 will likely need hospitalisation and care, and 50 to 100 of those are dead.

Maybe you'd be better off looking to where things are *going* to be in a few weeks and plan accordingly.

It's low effort to plan accordingly for this. Short term pain for long term personal and societal gain as well.

Choosing to be oblivious is much much worse than choosing to plan.

You are picking out worst possible case as a definite.
Maybe you are right and maybe not. Either way it's still 19 confirmed cases at present.
Panic and worry are counterproductive. But having some sort of personal plan in place just in case is surely wise.

bennyl10

banie01 wrote: »

This.

The report was leaked as part of a bad news soft landing strategy.

I posted in the previous thread re: HSE information strategy around this.
The HSE are very much in a 20th century mindset with regards their effort to control the flow of information.

The SBP publishing this story, wasn't done on a whim.
Nor was it done without actual editorial oversight and a rigourous source check or affording the HSE opportunity to pass comment.

It's good reporting, that many think it sensationalism is sometimes the price paid for being the 1st to print.

The SBP article is sensationalism though. It’s the same as reading the English and WHO worse case scenario advice and staying “70% of the population are going to be infected”. It’s sensationalism and scaremongering

It’s a worst case scenario, not backed up currently by actual graphs/case numbers.

Worse case scenario, like this, should only happen is we all start coughing on each other.

Prepare for the worst, but it won’t and shouldn’t get anywhere near that

megabomberman

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1234412194600824832?s=20

5 days ago the Department of Health said this.

Icyseanfitz

MadYaker wrote: »

National Public Health Emergency Team are due to give an update later with new numbers. What do people think? Another small increase or big jump?

from what ive seen over the last few days id bet on them trying to keep this small until paddies day parades are done

gabeeg

bennyl10 wrote: »

In your view.
A view which is not currently backed up by facts.


There’s 50,000 cases sure, the HSE are just hiding it from us and the WHO..

We current have 19 cases confirmed in Ireland. That is the reality

The average carrier infects over two people

ChikiChiki

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The fact that the DFA have recommended against all travel to Lombardy yet flights to/from Milan continue to land and takeoff in Dublin today just sums up the Government’s response honestly.

3 flights scheduled in from Milan after 7pm this evening.:o

ArchXStanton

Bullocks wrote: »

I was in the gym myself the other evening and was thinking it must be a hotbed for germs. Sweating and heavy breathing everywhere in the place

I'll be giving the gym a miss for a while and training at home

Bob24

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Lombardy + Veneto = 15 milion people
You are talking about locking down 15 million people because of an initial outbreak of about 200
It's the same as locking up our entire nation when we hit 50 cases. It was never going to happen
At least they cancelled Carnival in Venice, we are not even cancelling the parades

Don’t know if the threshold should have been 200 or 500, but yes I definitely think stronger measures were required 2 or 3 weeks ago. And to reiterate I think another way in which they failed is that their figures were likely a significant underrepresentation of reality (so were probably Chinese figures at the early stages, but they Chinese did suspect that and react strongly - plus we in Europe should have been able to react better as we had time to see it happening elsewhere).

Again I am curious: do you think the Chinese shouldn’t have a locked down Wuhan when they did?

It was a very similar situation to Northern Italy. Similar population to the areas you mention and when they made the decision to lock down (Jan 23) the case count for China was around 500, mostly located in Hubei province. They locked down Wuhan that day (11 million people) and shortly afterwards other cities in the province (I don’t have the exact figure, but I believe it was easily over 20 million people including Wuhan).

Also I will say it again: Italy didn’t gain anything by not doing it then, because now they have to initiate a lock down anyway and for an even larger area.

MadYaker

megabomberman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1234412194600824832?s=20

5 days ago the Department of Health said this.

Well technically so far they've been correct as we've only 19 cases confirmed. I fear in a week or two that statement may look even worse though

is_that_so

Blueshoe wrote: »

You are picking out worst possible case as a definite.
Maybe you are right and maybe not. Either way it's still 19 confirmed cases at present.
Panic and worry are counterproductive. But having some sort of personal plan in place just in case is surely wise.

The expression contingency plan was used earlier and it's one they need to have a plan for, however remote it might be.

Dyr

bennyl10 wrote: »

In your view.
A view which is not currently backed up by facts.


There’s 50,000 cases sure, the HSE are just hiding it from us and the WHO..

We current have 19 cases confirmed in Ireland. That is the reality

The reality is 19 positives out of how many tested?

RandomName2

Just read about the work done by Zhang Jixian

Zhang was an ICU doctor at Hubei Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine. Her experience fighting SARS in 2003 kept her alerted about public health emergency. On 26 December 2019, a senior couple, who lived near Zhang's hospital, came to her for their fever and cough. The CT scan results of the couple's thorax showed unusual changes in the lungs, which were different from those in any known viral pneumonia. Dr. Zhang then advised the couple's son to see her, and found similar conditions. On the same day, a patient from Huanan Seafood Market that Dr. Zhang saw also had the unusual conditions.

On 27 December, the doctor reported her discovery to her hospital and the hospital soon informed Jianghan CDC, thinking this might be an infectious disease as indicated by the familial cluster. As a precaution, she told her colleagues to wear protective gears and prepared a specialised area in the hospital to receive patients with similar conditions.

This is utterly amazing. A doctor at ground zero identified the disease as early as December 26th, and treated it with due diligence. Unfortunately the disease had been present in China for some two weeks at that stage, meaning that even with a strong government response that they weren't going to get away with less than 80 thousand cases.

The absolutely revolting 'seafood' market from which all this started wasn't shut down until 1st January. The virus may have come from bats or pangolins, but seeing that they apparently sold everything from foxes to turtles there (for consumption), it could be anything. These wet markets are some of the most shocking things you'll ever see in a civilized country (note, graphic content) and efforts should have been made both within and outside of China for these to be eradicated.

It would be a shame if the initial work done on containing the virus were to be thrown away by European and American governments who care about their profits being unduly affected by 'hysteria'.

thebaz

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The fact that the DFA have recommended against all travel to Lombardy yet flights to/from Milan continue to land and takeoff in Dublin today just sums up the Government’s response honestly.

Think it is good news for next few days - given we allowed a few thousand fly in for the game this weekend - will mean they can return - dont think many Irish will be going to North Italy for holidays right now.

CinemaGuy45

MadYaker wrote: »

National Public Health Emergency Team are due to give an update later with new numbers. What do people think? Another small increase or big jump?

Does it really matter what they say this thing is here and spreading.

The number of confirmed cases does not peak my attention it is the number of unconfirmed and unknown cases that people should be worried about.

The real question for these jokers is how many tests are they carrying out and how fast are they getting the results back?

Blueshoe

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

Except that's not the current reality at all.

Yes it is. There are currently 19 confirmed cases.
Do you know something we don't?

Mic 1972

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The fact that the DFA have recommended against all travel to Lombardy yet flights to/from Milan continue to land and takeoff in Dublin today just sums up the Government’s response honestly.

It would be interesting to know who is actually flying to/from Milan at the moment. Lombardy is in lock down mode. People are not allowed to leave the specific area they live in, let alone getting on a flight. I dont think there are hordes of people in Malpensa at the moment flying to whatever destination they fancy, it's not a tall like that

ACitizenErased

ChikiChiki wrote: »

3 flights scheduled in from Milan after 7pm this evening.:o

We’ve a puppet government who couldn’t give a **** about anything but the economy.

1641

gozunda wrote: »

Leo and friends are banking on having their last Paddy's Day fling flying around the world - all expenses paid - courtesy of good selves.

You couldn't be cancelling Paddys Day on the poor kids now would you?

And we still have this level of unadulterated bull.


Is there one small country in the world that isn't envious of the amount of promotion that this country gets around the world on St. Patrick's day? Any government in power (left, right, centre, nationalist, unionist, green or whatever) would and should support this. Sadly the amount of promotion this year will be limited. But it doesn't stop the childish whinging.

megabomberman

megabomberman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1234412194600824832?s=20

5 days ago the Department of Health said this.

I think his meaning at that time is risk of community spreading was low. This was true at that time. Things have changed now obviously.

MadYaker

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

from what ive seen over the last few days id bet on them trying to keep this small until paddies day parades are done

I'm not sure it would be possible to keep a lid on it with social media now. How could they keep it quiet if the numbers were huge? It would be impossible.

Sir Oxman

one armed dwarf wrote: »

Yeah the thing that causes me most stress/panic still is the public lack of willingness to accept the danger that's ahead and make manageable sacrifices to get us all through it.

I spent enough time in the 'panic porn' stage when it was sweeping through China, I'm much more calm about this thing now that it is here but it feels like there's still a load of denial out there. I don't know how you maintain cynicism about this thing with the trouble it's currently causing. It's that refusal to come to terms with reality that's scary as **** to me.

And that started with the blase attitude of govt/HSE to those who had their little ski trips/breaks planned to the biggest place to avoid and by fck no-one was gonna stop them.

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A spokesperson (Paul Reid, Chief Executive of HSE) on the RTÉ news says 100 healthcare workers who are asymptomatic but who have been in contact with the case in Cork University Hospital will continue to work. I find it interesting that they said they would send reports over the weekend but now they're giving a statement.

On a related note happy International Women's Day everyone. Personally I way prefer international women, local women are a head wreck.

Longing

Big increase in Holland those affected

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1236641354442321920

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bennyl10 wrote: »

In your view.
A view which is not currently backed up by facts.


There’s 50,000 cases sure, the HSE are just hiding it from us and the WHO..

We current have 19 cases confirmed in Ireland. That is the reality

If you are going to wait on facts from the HSE I'm afraid you'll be waiting a while.

This is worse than they have said, it's already got a foothold here and there's nothing people can do other than try to protect themselves.

There will be a huge knock on effect for people who require medical help (aside from those who actually get infected).

It's the 'shure we'll be grand' brigade that will cause the most damage spreading it around and not heeding advice.

lainey_d_123

cnocbui wrote: »

I think she should have gone, if she's in the age group where there's an 85% chance of being symptomless or mild. So long as she had travel insurance she would be fine. I'd rather end up in a Japanese hospital than one run by the HSE, as Japan's health system has the best outcomes of any country. I would bet that by the time her flights would leave, this country would be a more dangerous place to be, with regards catching it, than travelling to Japan would.

A lot of travel insurance isn't paying out in this situation. It's not about catching the virus, she's accepted that's likely either way. It's about being in a country where all the tourist attractions are shut and people are paranoid and wary. It's never going to be a nice trip, is it? How can you be relaxed when you're constantly thinking about needing to wash your hands, and worrying about every cough or sneeze on the plane?

She was set on going a couple of weeks ago, but apparently the situation in Japan has taken a turn for the worse, and it's gone from being business as normal to being very tense. Her friends there have said it's just not a good time to go. She had planned to do stuff with her friends over there like karaoke and people are saying they don't want to go out. She'd also planned a lot of street food stuff, and apparently a lot of it is shut down.

She's been back and forth over this for days but it's an expensive trip, and while she's losing money on the flights, she'd spend a lot more over there, and it's not great to spend a huge pile of money when you're not really enjoying it properly because of all the stress.

pc7

MadYaker wrote: »

National Public Health Emergency Team are due to give an update later with new numbers. What do people think? Another small increase or big jump?

It’s not really possible to guess as we don’t know how many they are testing. If they only test 20, number will be low, if they tested 1000 number would be bigger.