Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

RandomName2

is_that_so wrote: »

20K. He's mentioned here, where he stands over that claim.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/we-are-in-coronavirus-land-now-and-all-is-changed-utterly-1.4195222

A worthy quote from that article

Dr Paul O’Brien, an Irish regulatory expert based in China, says the most effective mitigation strategy Ireland could have adopted would have been to reduce the risk of infection to zero. “Early adoption of a proactive strategy involving risk-stratified mandatory quarantine of all inward travel from high-risk zones could have made this [the avoidance of panic] a non-issue for Ireland.”

I love how the 'stop the hysteria' mob have switched so quickly from saying 'it won't spread' to 'it's going to spread. It's inevitable. Get on with your life'.

givyjoe

noodler wrote: »

Its just the worst case.

I'd say even the limited actions to date in terms of advice, school closures etc have negated that particular number.

They literally said they can't argue with that figure...

skepticalme

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

What's on the radio right now, again in the name of reassuring us is quite disturbing.

We have 250 intensive care beds in our country. Around a quarter of what's normal in Europe.
That's not 250 for the virus but everyone who has a heart attack, car crash etc and the virus.

We will potentially just not put people over 75 into intensive care and concentrate on treating "productive members of society" according to adr from CUH. That'll be a decision to let people die of this. 75 is not old. It's the age of lots of our relatively vital parents.

Why in earth when we are looking down the barrel of that scenario are we offering reassurance and not taking the most drastic measures to stop the spread?

My heart sank when I heard this on the radio. I had already had a look and our ICU beds are usually at capacity. The Guardian had already mentioned a triage for ICU for UK.
Lombardy's ICU is already overwhelmed after a few weeks. Older people won't be first on the list, but what about people with disabilities etc.

https://twitter.com/RachelDonadio/status/1236430756412567559?s=20

Popoutman

bennyl10 wrote: »

Also of that 1.9million(worst case protections) 1.5million(based on who) will be mild and WILL NOT require any kind of hospital treatment.

Wash hands, follow instruction, isolate if sick

Yep, we are definitely not going to be able to manage 400,000 people needing to stay multiple weeks in medical care..

Completely agree with the second sentence though. We need to have impeccable personal hygiene, avoid crowds, and I'd like to see the authorities ban large gatherings to protect the idiots that would ignore the recommendations from themselves and to protect the rest of us.

tobefrank321

otnomart wrote: »

Do you think that anyone in Europe would decide to "escape" to Ireland today, knowing that it has: cases already in two digits, direct flights to the US and the UK (which both also have cases); shortage of hospital beds even outside of a crisis like this ?

Escape from Italy? Yes. Big time.

givyjoe

stephenjmcd wrote: »

To be fair i could see how someone might think that, space isn't as enclosed, compared to say 10k in a tight space in the 3Arena.

But St.Patrick's day in different altogether, it's outdoors but large numbers very close together

The Chinese obviously don't think outdoors is less of a risk, seen as they've had huge disinfectant canons spraying the streets.

odyssey06

Strazdas wrote: »

Indeed, and if standing on Dame Street or Patrick Street in the open air is "unsafe", then surely the entire country is unsafe.

There's simply no comparison between being on Dame Street on a regular day and on Parade day. At the parade people will be in static ranks for large parts of the parade, meeting the HSE close contact definition.

I Am The Law

givyjoe wrote: »

Apologies if someone has already posted, I suppose the HSE are just "scaremongering" https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236629220308156423?s=19

The first example of truth from the HSE.

Strazdas

stephenjmcd wrote: »

But St.Patrick's day in different altogether, it's outdoors but large numbers very close together

If 1.9m people are supposedly going to get the virus, the parade would be the very least of anyone's problems (and not responsible for the 1.9m getting it).

Harry Palmr

givyjoe wrote: »

They literally said they can't argue with that figure...

They cannot argue with a mathematical theoretical outcome.

That does not mean it is somehow pre-ordained to occur

otnomart

Belgium had first local case (spread from France) on 1 March
https://www.rtbf.be/info/societe/detail_deuxieme-cas-teste-positif-au-coronavirus-en-belgique-suivez-la-conference-de-presse-du-gouvernement?id=10444815
and one week later has 200 cases in total
400 tests yesterday detected 31 cases
There is a shortage of reagents for the tests
https://www.rtbf.be/info/societe/detail_coronavirus-en-belgique-200-cas-detectes-au-total-la-circulation-du-virus-reste-limitee?id=10450793

gabeeg

MadYaker wrote: »

Yeah after they allowed the virus to spread freely for most of december. They had 1000s of cases before they did anything just like Iran (and italy to a lesser extent) so they had no choice but to take draconian measures. I don't think the same thing has happened here.

France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Netherlands, UK, Belgium, Sweden, Norway and Austria.
All of these neighbouring countries have 100+ cases and are going to start going Wuhan in the coming days.

You think the HSE and gov has done a better job than the health systems in those countries? Some of those listed are amongst the very best in the world.

Runaways

RandomName2 wrote: »

A worthy quote from that article

Dr Paul O’Brien, an Irish regulatory expert based in China, says the most effective mitigation strategy Ireland could have adopted would have been to reduce the risk of infection to zero. “Early adoption of a proactive strategy involving risk-stratified mandatory quarantine of all inward travel from high-risk zones could have made this [the avoidance of panic] a non-issue for Ireland.”

I love how the 'stop the hysteria' mob have switched so quickly from saying 'it won't spread' to 'it's going to spread. It's inevitable. Get on with your life'.

To be fair. There’s people both extremes on all incarnations of this thread. Same names over and over. They’re unlikely to get it regardless of their view. Seems they’re stuck in a bedroom and already isolated so it’s almost funny reading their panic and their dismissivness.

RandomName2

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No idea when they keep getting McConkey on, he seems to pull different figures out every time he's on radio or tv

Well this advice seems to be sensible

So what to do now? McConkey feels “we may end up copying the Chinese”. Up to 5,000 public sector workers should be re-allocated to the job of tracing contacts, he says, while the Government needs to draw up robust contingency plans to keep essential services running. Schools and colleges need to use IT to keep classes going online when they have to close, and AI could be deployed to help trace contacts of confirmed cases.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/we-are-in-coronavirus-land-now-and-all-is-changed-utterly-1.4195222

Unearthly

Donald Trump has said he isn’t concerned at all about the coronavirus getting closer to the White House after it was revealed that an attendee at grassroots conservative conference CPAC had tested positive.

On a day when it also emerged that the nation’s capital had recorded its first case, the American Conservative Union said on Saturday that a participant at CPAC, which was attended by both Trump and the US vice-president, Mike Pence, had tested positive for coronavirus.

The White House said there was no indication that either Trump or Pence had been close to the infected attendee.

Asked if he was concerned about the virus getting closer, Trump said: “No, I’m not concerned at all. No, I’m not. We’ve done a great job.”

MadYaker

givyjoe wrote: »

They literally said they can't argue with that figure...

Because they haven't got figures of their own yet.

Blueshoe

Gods Gift wrote: »

Fookers puffing away on their vaps outside pubs and cafes. Polluting half the street here.

Would that transmit the virus??

No

givyjoe

skepticalme wrote: »

My heart sank when I heard this on the radio. I had already had a look and our ICU beds are usually at capacity. The Guardian had already mentioned a triage for ICU for UK.
Lombardy's ICU is already overwhelmed after a few weeks. Older people won't be first on the list, but what about people with disabilities etc.

https://twitter.com/RachelDonadio/status/1236430756412567559?s=20

That Twitter post should put into perspective for the idiots who've been playing this down for weeks.

Strazdas

odyssey06 wrote: »

There's simply no comparison between being on Dame Street on a regular day and on Parade day. At the parade people will be in static ranks for large parts of the parade, meeting the HSE close contact definition.

And being on a bus, a train, the LUAS, the DART, in a crowded pub every day of the week? The parade is a two hour event.

rossie1977

20,000 infections would completely shutdown the country. Remember they only had 80,000 or so confirmed cases in the whole of China. Even if all the cases occurred in Hubei which has 12 times Irelands population, 20,000 would be three times as many infections as Hubei.

Talk of a million infections in Ireland and this country is back in the dark ages.

noodler

givyjoe wrote: »

They literally said they can't argue with that figure...

Ok???

It was their worst case scenario so they can't argue with it?

But it's a worst case baseline. Close nothing, do nothing, any scenario after that is better.

I'm not entirely sure what you are saying. My overall point is that it must be the HSE's figure...just not the likely one.

Rob A. Bank

Strazdas wrote: »

If 1.9m people are supposedly going to get the virus, the parade would be the very least of anyone's problems (and not responsible for the 1.9m getting it).

Evidence please...

1641

Deleted User wrote: »

Eh? 30,000 deaths from flu in a season in Ireland? Thought it was 200 to 500 according to the HSE?

Yep. The only time (in recent history) that Flu caused anything like 30,000 deaths in Ireland was the Spanish flu (1918-19).

is_that_so wrote: »

20K. He's mentioned here, where he stands over that claim.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/we-are-in-coronavirus-land-now-and-all-is-changed-utterly-1.4195222

But in that article he is quoted
"A month ago, infectious disease expert Prof Sam McConkey told this writer the virus could kill up to 20,000 people in Ireland in a worst-case scenario. ....
It was doom-laden stuff, but McConkey isn’t resiling from it today. “This is going to hit us like a tsunami,” he warns. “It’s a once-in-a-hundred-year event that will kill more people than the Civil War we’re commemorating this year did a century ago."

He did not claim the Flu kills 20,000 annually.

Blueshoe

Strazdas wrote: »

If 1.9m people are supposedly going to get the virus, the parade would be the very least of anyone's problems (and not responsible for the 1.9m getting it).

Pie in sky figure.
But if 1.9 million people had the virus this country will economically collapse and there will be no coming back from it .

is_that_so

RandomName2 wrote: »

A worthy quote from that article

Dr Paul O’Brien, an Irish regulatory expert based in China, says the most effective mitigation strategy Ireland could have adopted would have been to reduce the risk of infection to zero. “Early adoption of a proactive strategy involving risk-stratified mandatory quarantine of all inward travel from high-risk zones could have made this [the avoidance of panic] a non-issue for Ireland.”

I love how the 'stop the hysteria' mob have switched so quickly from saying 'it won't spread' to 'it's going to spread. It's inevitable. Get on with your life'.

I think the panic was inevitable, just by it being out in the world. There is that quote about smart people changing their minds when the data changes. I don't see a state of panic as being conducive to coping with very much, so you take precautions and yes you get on with your life. It's what the vast majority are doing. If circumstances change or require official change we will deal with it. It's called resilience.

givyjoe

MadYaker wrote: »

Because they haven't got figures of their own yet.

Sigh.. they can't argue with it because they are solid projections based on infection rates we are seeing. What numbers of "their own" do they need?!

Lucy8080

In the U.K. Tesco ,Asda and Morrisons are to start implementing rationing on some food and household items like pasta ,dried milk , sanitizers and childrens medicines ,to name but a few.

Bob24

I Am The Law wrote: »

The first example of truth from the HSE.

At this stage I think they don’t know what to say anymore. Reality is starting to sink in that it is coming, and that any overly reassuring statement is counter productive as it will likely be proven wrong within a few days/weeks and hurt public trust in the authorities.

I do feel they are going a bit to the other extreme with that statement mentioning almost 2 million people though (it might also be RTE not being 100% truthful about what the HSE said).

wadacrack

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1236508490488741889

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Wibbs wrote: »

It would be hard to deny the suspicion that some are getting off on panic porn.

Yeah, it can’t be denied and there’s more than a hint of defensiveness off those who are protesting, IMO.