Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

bennyl10

Bambi wrote: »

The reality is 19 positives out of how many tested?

We’ll do that number tested on Tuesday. People teasing negative isn’t really necessary to know though is it?

We know we currently hve 19 people infected. We’re approaching 14 days for the first case confirmed in Ireland.
They may not have infected that Many, particularly if they quarantined and were isolated early.

The worry is cork, where they may be a lot of unknown cases, but again that’s just speculation.

All we’re aware of, and that we can fully comment on, is the 19 as of yesterday. Not as of last week, as of less than 24 hours ago.

S.M.B.

People were flying back to the UK from Milan earlier today. There appears to be very little difference in how the two countries are handling the situation. Whether they are both handling it well or terribly is another question.

thebaz

wonder will they fast track the supposed Israel cure ??

MadYaker

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Does it really matter what they say this thing is here and spreading.

The number of confirmed cases does not peak my attention it is the number of unconfirmed and unknown cases that people should be worried about.

The real question for these jokers is how many tests are they carrying out and how fast are they getting the results back?

They gave numbers tested in a press conference last week, it was a around 500 - 600 if i remember correctly (can't find this figure now though) so I imagine they've tested more now. It likely won't be in the statement later but hopefully we get a press conference tomorrow.

Edit: I could have dreamt this up, I can't find mention of numbers tested anywhere online now

megabomberman

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think his meaning at that time is risk of community spreading was low. This was true at that time. Things have changed now obviously.

I am still annoyed by the fact that they decided to follow 'calm the public' playbook when they could see our neighbouring countries, only a week ahead were moving to the priming the public for disaster playbook. It confuses people and totally undermines their perceived competence.

Loughc

ChikiChiki wrote: »

3 flights scheduled in from Milan after 7pm this evening.:o

I imagine they’ll be cancelled as Milan is now in the red zone in Italy.

banie01

Blueshoe wrote: »

Yes it is. There are currently 19 confirmed cases.
Do you know something we don't?

It's to quote Dick Cheney, the known unknowns that are more at issue currently.

We know there are 19 confirmed cases.

We do not know.
Versus how many tests?
How many have been asked to self isolate by GP or HSE live and are awaiting testing?
How many have a differential diagnosis of Covid-19 and are awaiting clinical confirmation?
How many potential cases are currently hospitalised?

That's before we ask anyone in the HSE to address the state of current contingency planning.

bennyl10

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

If you are going to wait on facts from the HSE I'm afraid you'll be waiting a while.

This is worse than they have said, it's already got a foothold here and there's nothing people can do other than try to protect themselves.

There will be a huge knock on effect for people who require medical help (aside from those who actually get infected).

It's the 'shure we'll be grand' brigade that will cause the most damage spreading it around and not heeding advice.

HSE are telling is the numbers that have been confirmed as having the disease. That’s all they can do. You don’t have any other positives tests so you’re just speculating.

And they are contacting those who may have been infected by those 19.

No one is saying ‘shure we’ll be grand’. Follow the advice, was your hands and self isolate if you feel sick.

It’s going to spread, of course it is. But we don’t know numbers and there isn’t any point In speculating that we’re in end times.

is_that_so

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

If you are going to wait on facts from the HSE I'm afraid you'll be waiting a while.

This is worse than they have said, it's already got a foothold here and there's nothing people can do other than try to protect themselves.

There will be a huge knock on effect for people who require medical help (aside from those who actually get infected).

It's the 'shure we'll be grand' brigade that will cause the most damage spreading it around and not heeding advice.

If you've been near a supermarket lately you'd notice that soap products are in short supply. I think people are heeding the advice. Almost every conversation I've had for the past week and a half, COVID-19 and washing your hands properly has been mentioned.

otnomart

Bob24 wrote: »

when they made that decision to lock down (Jan 23) the case count for China was 500, mostly located in Hubei province. They locked down Wuhan that day (11 million people) and shortly afterwards other cities in the province (I don’t have the exact figure, but I believe it was easily over 20 million people including Wuhan).

Defence meeting in France at 18.00, nearly 1000 cases yesterday, we will see if they lockdown, so far the discussions are about moving to Stage 3.

https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/stade-3-du-covid-19-le-ministere-de-la-sante-adaptera-les-mesures-en-fonction-de-l-evolution-1871087.html

ldy4mxonucwsq6

Blueshoe wrote: »

Yes it is. There are currently 19 confirmed cases.
Do you know something we don't?

Wait to see tomorrow's news reports.

Rob A. Bank

1641 wrote: »

And we still have this level of unadulterated bull.


Is there one small country in the world that isn't envious of the amount of promotion that this country gets around the world on St. Patrick's day? Any government in power (left, right, centre, nationalist, unionist, green or whatever) would and should support this. Sadly the amount of promotion this year will be limited. But it doesn't stop the childish whinging.

And if one of our guys infects and possibly kills another head of state ?

That will be a really fabulous 'promotion' for the country.

Politicians are not immune to this disease (google Iran)

(genetic analysis can trace the pathway of spread of the virus)

Pacing Mule

Blueshoe wrote: »

Yes it is. There are currently 19 confirmed cases.
Do you know something we don't?

Gonna say yes they do.

There were multiple cases found yesterday but somehow we only had 1 extra case announced yesterday evening. I'm not an alarmist or sensationalist whatsoever but this under reporting is frustrating the proverbials off me now because all it does is encourages the actual sensationalists to make it so much worse when they get to say I told ya so and exaggerate it on the other side.

Popoutman

Blueshoe wrote: »

You are picking out worst possible case as a definite.

If it's doubling every 10 days (not backed up by the figures, but we'll give you the benefit of the doubt).
That puts things as:

• 40 cases March 18
• 80 cases March 28
• 160 cases April 7th
• 320 cases April 17th
• 640 cases April 27th
• 1,280 cases May 7th
• 2,560 cases May 17th
• 51,200 cases May 27th
• 102,400 cases June 8th
• 204,800 cases June 18th
• 409,600 cases June 28th
• 819,200 cases July 8th
• 1,638,400 cases July 18th.

It's still not good no matter what way you look at it. I'm not seeing any current reason that prevents the transmission rate from staying at the currently-known rate and not tapering off until a significant portion of the population is infected.

Did you have any rational and realistic reasons why you think things are going to be better than I had suggested above?

DrumSteve

thebaz wrote: »

wonder will they fast track the supposed Israel cure ??

Dunno if I'm more wary of the virus or a fast tracked vaccine.

normanoffside

Loughc wrote: »

I imagine they’ll be cancelled as Milan is now in the red zone in Italy.

Go to the website of Milan Bergamo Airport and there is a video that pops up saying business as usual.
They are using the hashtag #keeponflying

https://www.milanbergamoairport.it/en/

1641

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

Except that's not the current reality at all.

I think we should nominate Treasure Grumpy Tie as the official spokesperson for "Reality".
Any seconders?

Runaways

McClunkey in the radio now

‘This Is going to affect our society and economy and way of life in a whole new way.’
Compares it To the Spanish flu our civil war and Wall Street crash all at once.

wakka12

Strazdas wrote: »

That headline is clearly extremely misleading. Given how wildly unpredictable viruses are, the real figure could be anywhere between 190 people and 1.9m (the latter number seems scarcely credible given health awareness, modern hygiene and modern medicine).

If it was so wildly unpredictable the HSE would say they can argue with the prediction. But they said they cant

You seem insistent on the idea that a tiny percent of people will ever contract it based on the fact that so far only a tiny number have contracted it. I would call that misleading

stephenjmcd

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

Wait to see tomorrow's news reports.

Well all we can do is wait until those figures are announced.
Until then the official number is 19 and everything else unless backed up by posting a source is rumor

odyssey06

bennyl10 wrote: »

The SBP article is sensationalism though. It’s the same as reading the English and WHO worse case scenario advice and staying “70% of the population are going to be infected”. It’s sensationalism and scaremongering
It’s a worst case scenario, not backed up currently by actual graphs/case numbers.
Worse case scenario, like this, should only happen is we all start coughing on each other.
Prepare for the worst, but it won’t and shouldn’t get anywhere near that

It's a projection of future cases, of course it's far higher than current case numbers. No one should be looking at current case numbers and assuming it static.

We've seen the UK ones, if you're going to challenge them please provide an alternative.
What's the HSE projection for scenarios for number of cases in Ireland over the next three months ranging from expected to worst case?

DrumSteve

I do wonder whether the reason for the hands off approach is that governments in the West need this to get bad to get the population to buy in to the Chinese approach.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Runaways wrote: »

McClunkey in the radio now

‘This Is going to affect our society and economy and way of life in a whole new way.’
Compares it To the Spanish flu our civil war and Wall Street crash all at once.

"I had predicted 20,000 as the worst case scenario... (based off what the trajectory was two weeks ago)
...in a season we'd usually have 30,000 deaths from flu in Ireland. It could be 80,000-100,000 deaths."

WHO official Tarik Jasarevic on now saying that those who get sick need to be detected, tested and provided with medical care. Doesn't seem in conjunction with the HSE sending contracts of CUH confirmed case back to work. Saying we need the government to work towards this. I wonder if he knows about the current political situation here.

stephenjmcd

DFA Updated
https://www.dfa.ie/travel/travel-advice/a-z-list-of-countries/italy/

Harry Palmr

Anyone listening to RTE radio news?

They have a someone in the studio talking of 20,000 minimum to 120,000 maximum deaths depending on rates of infection (up to 80%) and fatality rate (mentioned up to 4%)

iguana

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

You are speculating... the virus is new to science since the start of this year.

NO ONE knows the long term effect of this virus on antibodies or immunity

That's why I said 'usually' and 'indication.' While we don't know anything for a fact we can extrapolate a likely outcome based on similarities to other viruses. There is a huge amount of fear-mongering going on. The reality is that this is genuinely really, really bad. It needs to be taken seriously. People need to be prepared to make real mid-term changes to their lives in order to protect themselves and others. But it's not the black death. Most people get better and are likely to stay better.

RandomName2

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

"I predicted 20,000 as the worst case scenario...
...in a season we'd usually have 30,000 deaths from flu in Ireland. It could be 80,000-100,000 deaths."

FFS annually we would have between 250-500 flu deaths in Ireland.

If we had 30,000 flu deaths annually everyone in Ireland would be dead within about two decades.

embraer170

MadYaker wrote: »

1.9 million is surely a worst case scenario. Even in China they've only had 80,000 so far and it seems to be slowing down there now. We've been more turned on to this from the start so not sure how we could end up with 1.9 million cases in Ireland alone?? Id like to see the modelling.

Have you seen the measures China has taken?

tobefrank321

Loughc wrote: »

I imagine they’ll be cancelled as Milan is now in the red zone in Italy.

If they aren't its madness. Nothing to stop anyone trying to escape lockdown jumping on those flights to here. And impossible to trace their interactions once here.

gozunda

1641 wrote: »

And we still have this level of unadulterated bull.Is there one small country in the world that isn't envious of the amount of promotion that this country gets around the world on St. Patrick's day? Any government in power (left, right, centre, nationalist, unionist, green or whatever) would and should support this. Sadly the amount of promotion this year will be limited. But it doesn't stop the childish whinging.

Is that you Leo?

Point out one thing in that comment which was inaccurate.

Yeah but your reply is 'unadulterated bull' is right. 'Envious' me backside and absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

So you reckon the boys should be rocking all over the joint whilst we have a major national emergency ongoing? Fair enough. Good to know where you stand on these issues ..