Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Brianmwalker

iguana wrote: »

Looking at Korea which probably has the most accurate numbers, the mortality rate is .6% so far. On the Diamond Princess the acquisition rate was less than 20% and the mortality rate so far is 1% and that's with an older age demographic than usual. So say maybe 900,000 infected and 4,000 - 5,000 fatalities. And, this is cold, but a reasonable number of those people will have underlying conditions that may have caused them to die at some point this year anyway. It's still really, really shît, don't get me wrong. And many people who may die, hundreds, maybe thousands would probably have had years and years of decent life ahead of them. But I really, really don't think we'll see 10s of 1,000s of fatalities. This is really serious, really bad, really tragic for a lot of people but I honestly don't think we'll see the worst case scenarios happening here.

Active cases shouldn't be used in your mortality calculation. They might die yet. S Korea has 50 deaths and 130 recovered.

Popoutman

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

many older people have become quite unnecessarily scared.

It's questionable if any of us can really judge what's real or fake at this stage.

Known figures from Italy are that >80s are dying at a rate of about 1 in 6. That's literally russian roulette odds.

It's not unreasonable to be scared of that, when there's pretty much no personal control over the infection by and progression of the virus.

The elderly should be stocking up on meds (suggestions are for >1 months's supply), stocking up on basic necessary foodstuffs, avoiding contact with the possibly infected.

The hardest part of that will be to be avoiding contact with children who appear to be able to carry the virus without appearing any worse than normal kiddy dribbly noses. So, we're very likely to have infected kids with low symptoms, meeting granny and effectively killing her with transmission. That's not hyperbole, that's not scaremongering, that's just a perfectly possible vector for transmission.

Those caring for the over 80s or other elderly people, please ensure they have plans and provisions in place for self-isolation for more than a few days.

ChikiChiki

I have been very pessimistic throughout this after analysing the data from other countries. It is not going to be a good outcome and that is something we must accept.

But I feel that Sunday Business Post headline is irresponsible and over the top.

Its literally going from 0-100 on causing panic. There is no way the HSE can be supporting that with their strategy so far.

wakka12

iguana wrote: »

Looking at Korea which probably has the most accurate numbers, the mortality rate is .6% so far. On the Diamond Princess the acquisition rate was less than 20% and the mortality rate so far is 1% and that's with an older age demographic than usual. So say maybe 900,000 infected and 4,000 - 5,000 fatalities. And, this is cold, but a reasonable number of those people will have underlying conditions that may have caused them to die at some point this year anyway. It's still really, really shît, don't get me wrong. And many people who may die, hundreds, maybe thousands would probably have had years and years of decent life ahead of them. But I really, really don't think we'll see 10s of 1,000s of fatalities. This is really serious, really bad, really tragic for a lot of people but I honestly don't think we'll see the worst case scenarios happening here.

There are still dozens of passengers on that ship in a serious condition.Yes it is skewed upwards by age but also in South Korea's the numbers are skewed downnwards. Around 40% of the South Korean cases are from the cult of which around half of the members are in their 20's

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/dlglsh/status/1236233743674888193

iguana

Brianmwalker wrote: »

Active cases shouldn't be used in your mortality calculation. They might die yet. S Korea has 50 deaths and 130 recovered.

I'd normally agree but they also only have 36 cases in serious/critical condition. The vast, vast majority of cases in Korea seem to be mild-moderate and that's because they are diagnosing more cases than anywhere else.

wadacrack

niallo27 wrote: »

If we can spread this out over a year, we will surely have a vaccine by then which would bring the deaths down by huge numbers.

Personally I'd be very weary of a vaccine. We obviously would not know the long term effects of that and highly likely it is rushed. Better treatment and just greater management of severe cases . The weather/season may help . Might also get lucky if it mutates to a weaker strain. We are bound to improve our immunity to this but hard to know how quickly this can happen

Ficheall

There is speculation with some theoretical support that the virus may leave survivors with damage to, for example, the testes. It was apparently too soon to confirm whether the virus thus had any effect on fertility, but we must be coming up on a time when it will be possible to test early survivors?

Mic 1972

Bob24 wrote: »

They passed 50 cases a while ago. And part of my criticism has always been that that they failed to detect the outbreak early enough. When they counted 50 they probably had a lot more.

So if size/population is your criteria, China should not have locked down Hubei province which is even more populated?

Lombardy + Veneto = 15 milion people
You are talking about locking down 15 million people because of an initial outbreak of about 200
It's the same as locking up our entire nation when we hit 50 cases. It was never going to happen
At least they cancelled Carnival in Venice, we are not even cancelling the parades

sullivlo

niallo27 wrote: »

If we can spread this out over a year, we will surely have a vaccine by then which would bring the deaths down by huge numbers.

The nature of the virus, and subsequent immune response it illicits in patients, is complex. It appears to be a biphasic virus, which means that it can lie dormant in the body without being detected. Furthermore, the immune response activated is similar to that of the 2002 SARS spread, and no vaccine has been produced/effective against this.

ChikiChiki

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The HSE supporting the Business post article must mean there's more cases to be announced later. Reading between the lines I expect quite a few today

Apologies if I have missed it but where are they supporting it?

pjohnson

Its pretty pointless tryna compare any countries numbers given how passive the reaction has been to doing anything to limit the spread.

Ten people dead after hotel hosting quarantined patients collapses in eastern China.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0308/1120907-china-virus-hotel-collapse/

otnomart

Nextstrain now has data from the Netherlands
"Some are close to the Italian samples, but there are 2 distinct clusters, those could be community transmission, but also they could be connected with France or Germany but we don't have their data yet"

stephenjmcd

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236635039963721729?s=19

sullivlo

Ficheall wrote: »

There is speculation with some theoretical support that the virus may leave survivors with damage to, for example, the testes. It was apparently too soon to confirm whether the virus thus had any effect on fertility, but we must be coming up on a time when it will be possible to test early survivors?

Most people who are hit hard by the virus are beyond their reproductive prime.

Clarence Boddiker

How things change

un5byh7sqpd2x0

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Apologies if I have missed it but where are they supporting it?

They’re not supporting it, they’re currently unable to dispute it

Brianmwalker

iguana wrote: »

I'd normally agree but they also only have 36 cases in serious/critical condition. The vast, vast majority of cases in Korea seem to be mild-moderate and that's because they are diagnosing more cases than anywhere else.

Does it start mild and get worse or does it quick get to the maximum stage? Genuine question, seems to be taking a long time for recoveries.

is_that_so

Ficheall wrote: »

There is speculation with some theoretical support that the virus may leave survivors with damage to, for example, the testes. It was apparently too soon to confirm whether the virus thus had any effect on fertility, but we must be coming up on a time when it will be possible to test early survivors?

Speculation and theoretical support are anathema to each other. One does not support the other as neither inhabits the realm of facts.

khalessi

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Lombardy + Veneto = 15 milion people
You are talking about locking down 15 million people because of an initial outbreak of about 200
It's the same as locking up our entire nation when we hit 50 cases. It was never going to happen
At least they cancelled Carnival in Venice, we are not even cancelling the parades

It should though if it prevents the widespread infection of 40% of population. Nip it in the bud early and less of a human hit, economic hit and less of a hit on our overwhelmed health system.

silverharp

noticing people are cleaning stuff more at the gym ,and lots of announcements about doing it.

Rob A. Bank

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 8 March 2020



Click on the graph in this link for a larger image.

The number of daily cases in Europe shows slightly smaller rise today but the trend remains upwards.

:-(

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236635039963721729?s=19

Why are they not recommending Italy as a whole? Tip-toeing around the situation again.

MadYaker

Katie Dirty Copperhead wrote: »

They’re not supporting it, they’re currently unable to dispute it

Unfortunately many people in this thread are too dumb to tell the difference.

wakka12

Clarence Boddiker wrote: »

How things change

I still cant believe that was the official stance of the HSE for so long while Ireland had open borders to places wracking up thousands of cases daily. Like how could it possibly remain low under those circumstances? And people on here were called scare mongers to say it sounded like bs

05eaftqbrs9jlh

wadacrack wrote: »

Personally I'd be very weary of a vaccine. We obviously would not know the long term effects of that and highly likely it is rushed. Better treatment and just greater management of severe cases . The weather/season may help . Might also get lucky if it mutates to a weaker strain. We are bound to improve our immunity to this but hard to know how quickly this can happen

Why are we bound to improve our immunity? Why would it mutate to a weaker strain? If you're willing to speculate one way you can surely imagine a situation where (as scientists have predicted, I can find you links if you want) in the year or years that they will be researching the vaccine, our immune systems will be compromised by infection, our lungs will be damaged by it and it could also mutate to a stronger variation of the virus.

The fact is that 1 in 5 show severe symptoms. We don't have the healthcare capacity to care for these people.

Christy42

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 8 March 2020



Click on the graph in this link for a larger image.

The number of daily cases show s slightly smaller rise today but the trend remains upwards.

:-(

Not enough colours! I thought something terrible had happened in Lithuania for a second.

gozunda

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Good man Jim Ó Callaghan (FF) who is suggesting screw government formation for now on TWIP. He also wants a flight ban. Increasingly looks like Leo and the crew have gone solo on this Paddy's day nonsense.

He seems to have a better handle on this than his own party leader.

Leo and friends are banking on having their last Paddy's Day fling flying around the world - all expenses paid - courtesy of good selves.

You couldn't be cancelling Paddys Day on the poor kids now would you?

Tánaiste and Minister Simon Coveney is to lead a delegation to New York for St Patrick’s Day. 

Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe is travelling to Paris and Brussels this year.

Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan is off to Berlin, while Minister for Defence Paul Kehoe is travelling to Savannah in the Southern States.

Agriculture Minister Michael Creed will visit Chicago.

Ministers Heather Humphreys will travel to Sacramento in California.

Culture Minister Josepha Madigan is going to London.

Minister for Rural and Community Development, Michael Ring is heading to Boston.

The Attorney General Seamus Wolfewill travel to New York and surrounding areas.

Minister for Education Joe McHughwas due to travel to Canada but made the decision at the weekend to stay home to deal with the Covid-19 situation.

Minister for Health Simon Harris is also remaining in Ireland. 

https://www.thejournal.ie/st-patricks-day-trips-taoiseach-ministers-5024433-Mar2020/

Cilldara_2000

MadYaker wrote: »

Unfortunately many people in this thread are too dumb to tell the difference.

As well as the SBP it would appear. Sensationalist click-bait from a supposedly quality broadsheet.