Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Cilldara_2000

niallo27 wrote: »

Ah cmon, there is ignoring it to telling people half the population will get it.

Look on the positive side. That means half the population won't get it. Those are beautiful numbers.

jam_mac_jam

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Panic has never helped anyone ever, don’t be ridiculous.

Did i say it did?

The Hse needs to be honest regardless of whether it causes panic or not. And thats what they are doing above by saying that they cannot disagree with the projections.

ACitizenErased

Runaways wrote: »

Read the previous thread and you’ll see endless complaints HSE are keeping us in the dark

There Is no way they can win. Inform people? They’re causing panic!!
Withold information? They’re lying to us!!

Saying 1.9 million may get it isn’t informing people. Letting people know where cases are, exact numbers of those who are infected and places to avoid is informing people.

stephenjmcd

Blueshoe wrote: »

How many cases do we have? 19 at present.
Il stick to the current reality and leave the panic to those who enjoy it

I'm of the same opinion.

That sunday business post article is at this current moment completely irresponsible to post. Would have expected better from a paper like that and not to cause widespread panic.

HSE cant dispute the figures because it's way too early yet

jam_mac_jam

niallo27 wrote: »

Ah cmon, there is ignoring it to telling people half the population will get it.

Maybe they are being honest

CinemaGuy45

6 wrote: »

1.9m with a 2% death rate is almost 40,000 deadlines. Jaysus.

There'll hardly be a family untouched if that happens.

That's surely worst case scenario.

The HSE saying they can not dispute this and not long ago people were being called doom merchants on this serious of threads.

Nobody is enjoying this but what is coming out now is what I kind of expected from the very start.

A death rate from 2% to 3.4% depending on the health and age of the population.

It will not be all grand but we are not all doomed either.

What we have is a bad situation that is what it is accept it.

ACitizenErased

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

Maybe they are being honest

Can’t be honest when they’re not even telling people where the cases are.

the butcher

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0308/1120915-coronavirus-updates/

An economic hit is coming, we can decide as a nation whether it's quick and fast or slow and painful. This can come fast from a proactive lock down...otherwise we stare into a forced lock down like Italy after a complete healthcare collapse...which is most sane peoples eyes is far far worse of an impact.

We know it will cost hugely to business but there's no alternative. You can't expect to do zero of the measures China has implemented and expect us not to be hit by this. Shut downs of schools, workplaces, public transport, sporting and social events are inevitable.

We now need national solidarity on this. Cop on and stop pretending that its "just a flu" and stupid nonsense talk about "panic porn". It adds nothing to the discussion. I don't want this, I'd rather not talk about this, I'm not panicked but I'm concerned for the high risk categorises of PEOPLE. My family, my friends, my neighbours and work colleagues. I understand the need to avoid panic but I don't want to tip that kind of talk into complacency. Irish people are reasonable and will accept what is coming if our officials were transparent and honest.

If we can push this into April we can hope proactive sacrifices & warmer weather will beat this back which means we can look at the Summer with a good bit of hope. We need to help our frontline health workers as much as possible and that means adhering to the advice given so far but we want more than advice, we want more action at this stage.

Runaways

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Saying 1.9 million may get it isn’t informing people. Letting people know where cases are, exact numbers of those who are infected and places to avoid is informing people.

You didn’t read the article it seems. Modeling is not complete. And I’d agree with them releasing that number. They’ve been flooding media and airwaves with how to take sanitary precautions. Here’s stage two where they let us know what is going to happen if we each dont do our own personal responsibilities with regards to that.

That’s not creating panic. If anything it’s almost social engineering but it’s for the greater good as well as individual health

jam_mac_jam

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Can’t be honest when they’re not even telling people where the cases are.

I agree they need to give more location info. Just commenting on the particular point raised.

Popoutman

Blueshoe wrote: »

How many cases do we have? 19 at present.
Il stick to the current reality and leave the panic to those who enjoy it

Double that number every 6 days. Now you see where the 1.0 million comes from in a few months. 5000 people infected at the end of April, of which 1000 will likely need hospitalisation and care, and 50 to 100 of those are dead.

Maybe you'd be better off looking to where things are *going* to be in a few weeks and plan accordingly.

It's low effort to plan accordingly for this. Short term pain for long term personal and societal gain as well.

Choosing to be oblivious is much much worse than choosing to plan.

one armed dwarf

Yeah the thing that causes me most stress/panic still is the public lack of willingness to accept the danger that's ahead and make manageable sacrifices to get us all through it.

I spent enough time in the 'panic porn' stage when it was sweeping through China, I'm much more calm about this thing now that it is here but it feels like there's still a load of denial out there. I don't know how you maintain cynicism about this thing with the trouble it's currently causing. It's that refusal to come to terms with reality that's scary as **** to me.

Cork Boy 53

MadYaker wrote: »

Why read nonsense on boards? Ill wait for the numbers before I go out and spend 100 quid on bog roll

What`s nonsense is the attitude of the head in the sand section of society that, for example, also think climate change is a scam and not really happening.

JanuarySnowstor

The HSE supporting the Business post article must mean there's more cases to be announced later. Reading between the lines I expect quite a few today

gozunda

Bigus wrote: »

How do you plan a disaster?

Or how do you plan for an unknown?

Its called contingency planning. Not something new ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingency_plan

iguana

6 wrote: »

1.9m with a 2% death rate is almost 40,000 deadlines. Jaysus.

Looking at Korea which probably has the most accurate numbers, the mortality rate is .6% so far. On the Diamond Princess the acquisition rate was less than 20% and the mortality rate so far is 1% and that's with an older age demographic than usual. So say maybe 900,000 infected and 4,000 - 5,000 fatalities. And, this is cold, but a reasonable number of those people will have underlying conditions that may have caused them to die at some point this year anyway. It's still really, really shît, don't get me wrong. And many people who may die, hundreds, maybe thousands would probably have had years and years of decent life ahead of them. But I really, really don't think we'll see 10s of 1,000s of fatalities. This is really serious, really bad, really tragic for a lot of people but I honestly don't think we'll see the worst case scenarios happening here.

jam_mac_jam

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The HSE supporting the Business post article must mean there's more cases to be announced later. Reading between the lines I expect quite a few today

The tone seems to be changing quite quickly

stephenjmcd

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The HSE supporting the Business post article must mean there's more cases to be announced later. Reading between the lines I expect quite a few today

They aren't supporting it or disputing it.
They can't counter it at the moment as we're too early into it in this country to give accurate figures.

I'd give it another week to see how the figures stack up week on week to then give a projection

Jim_Hodge

Graces7 wrote: »

I hear you but do not agree with your last sentence or your earlier views . It could be seen as an insult to our intelligence although I am sure that is not your intention . We are all and each intelligent enough to discriminate between junk, hype and reality and not panic. It all rolls off us like water off a duck's back. Like you I am in the vulnerable class and old but I know what is real and what is fake as do most of us here.

It's hard to believe we're reading the same posts. I totally disagree with you on this. Posts here have shown huge variations from complacency to overhyping. It's not rolling off some backs and, judging by newspaper features yesterday and today, many older people have become quite unnecessarily scared.

It's questionable if any of us can really judge what's real or fake at this stage.

MadYaker

1.9 million is surely a worst case scenario. Even in China they've only had 80,000 so far and it seems to be slowing down there now. We've been more turned on to this from the start so not sure how we could end up with 1.9 million cases in Ireland alone?? Id like to see the modelling.

wakka12

6 wrote: »

1.9m with a 2% death rate is almost 40,000 deaths. Jaysus.

There'll hardly be a family untouched if that happens.

That's surely worst case scenario.

Its probably around 1% death rate though.

KWAG2019

the butcher wrote: »

...
We now need national solidarity on this... Irish people are reasonable and will accept what is coming if our officials were transparent and honest.

If we can push this into April we can hope proactive sacrifices & warmer weather will beat this back which means we can look at the Summer with a good bit of hope. We need to help our frontline health workers as much as possible and that means adhering to the advice given so far but we want more than advice, we want more action at this stage.

This is true but the problems are the deficit the HSE suffers from for decades of incompetence and cover up and stonewalling on other issues. The other problem is that national solidarity/ the green jersey has been cynically exploited in the past.

Getting past these will take real leadership.Which is very different from self congratulatory smugness about taking "hard" decisions which are actually cynical, ruthless decisions to favour one sector of society over the needs of all.

wakka12

MadYaker wrote: »

1.9 million is surely a worst case scenario. Even in China they've only had 80,000 so far and it seems to be slowing down there now. We've been more turned on to this from the start so not sure how we could end up with 1.9 million cases in Ireland alone?? Id like to see the modelling.

How many times does this need to be said? Cases dropped in Hubei and other affected Chinese provinces because NOBODY went outside for two months, it is a completely incomparable situation to anywhere else on earth. I would say China was a lot more 'tuned in' as it started lockdowns with 500 cases and Italy started with about ten times that number

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Does anyone with a subscription want to post the text of this Sunday Business Post article?

https://www.businesspost.ie/health/irish-health-authorities-predict-19m-people-will-fall-ill-with-coronavirus-701e4838

I can't believe papers are still keeping articles like this behind paywalls.

[url]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1236476457494417408?s=20[/url]

The Health Authorities in America at least are regarding this with the seriousness it deserves, in spite of their government obstructing them from acting in the best interests of the public. Unfortunately neither our health service nor government are interested in stopping this, merely putting off the spread until the inevitable breakdown of society which will be caused by the health service being overwhelmed and people being unable to work due to illness.

owlbethere

one armed dwarf wrote: »

Yeah the thing that causes me most stress/panic still is the public lack of willingness to accept the danger that's ahead and make manageable sacrifices to get us all through it.

I spent enough time in the 'panic porn' stage when it was sweeping through China, I'm much more calm about this thing now that it is here but it feels like there's still a load of denial out there. I don't know how you maintain cynicism about this thing with the trouble it's currently causing. It's that refusal to come to terms with reality that's scary as **** to me.

We have the WHO recommending social distancing. The late late show had a mental health person telling us to go and mingle.

khalessi

Blueshoe wrote: »

By "suitable for a paper of it's standard" that it's not a rag?
I didn't even know the paper existed and when I saw the headline I dismissed it immediately as rubbish.

Is it time to hoard yet?
Any comments made by the hse or just Monday to Friday 9-5

I'm wouldn't be worried about myself at all. Parents would be older though with my father having diabetes.
Yet the reality is we have only got 19 confirmed cases so it's hard to see an outbreak growing that much and so quickly

That's probably what they thought in Italy a few weeks ago . I would rather err on the side of caution and stamp this out in the earlier stages before it gets out of hand.

otnomart

Countries that are behind in the spread have already plenty of info to try and contain:

We know how the virus spread, hence: hand washing, keep safety distance, avoid handshaking
Spread took place in hospitals (see Codogno and Creil)
and in large gatherings (see Mulhouse)
From Italy's daily updates, we know that the majority of victims are above a certain age and with comorbidities
Therefore Italian Gov (already last week) recommended those over 75 - and those over 65 with pathologies - not to go out
We also know percentage of patients who require intensive care

niallo27

If we can spread this out over a year, we will surely have a vaccine by then which would bring the deaths down by huge numbers.

jam_mac_jam

khalessi wrote: »

That's probably what they thought in Italy a few weeks . I would rather err on the side of caution and stamp this out in the earlier stages before it gets out of hand.

Exactly the risks of being over cautious rather then doing nothing are much less. Yes it will cause economic hardship but may reduce a lot more in the long run.

Not sure why we think what is happening in Italy will not happen here.

CinemaGuy45

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

A death rate from 2% to 3.4% depending on the health and age of the population

Is that correct? According to WHO figures it ranges from 0.2% to 14% depending on health and age. The actual average is up for grabs after that, depending on response, availability of infrastructure etc.