Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

WishUWereHere

Just seen ‘The Weeks in Politics ‘& as an avid follower of commercial aviation ( never even in a cockpit so am totally a novice) I was totally shocked. They had a camera in Shannon Airport. There was only one flight due in for the remainder of the day & no flights taking off until tomorrow. Also the terminal was like a ghost town. Also plenty of planes parked up, including overseas airlines. They also said numbers through Dublin are back to 1995 levels.

I never realised just how bad the situation really is. One can only really feel for all those without a job because of this accursed virus.

RocketRaccoon

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Just seen ‘The Weeks in Politics ‘& as an avid follower of commercial aviation ( never even in a cockpit so am totally a novice) I was totally shocked. They had a camera in Shannon Airport. There was only one flight due in for the remainder of the day & no flights taking off until tomorrow. Also the terminal was like a ghost town. Also plenty of planes parked up, including overseas airlines. They also said numbers through Dublin are back to 1995 levels.

I never realised just how bad the situation really is. One can only really feel for all those without a job because of this accursed virus.

Check the departures board for Shannon on Tuesday/Wednesday next week if you remember.

Blut2

snotboogie wrote: »

Very hard to see either being done for. Cork, which I am more familiar with, has some very strong routes like Heathrow, Stansted and Amsterdam. Even if the bases are pulled for both Ryanair and EI they will still operate these routes.

ORK has 7 flights, total, scheduled for departure tomorrow. SNN appears to have 2 flights(!), total.

With PAX loads being so shockingly low at the moment (and for the foreseeable future) that would place ORK at likely 300-700 passengers per day, and SNN at 50-200 passengers a day. Those are tiny tiny regional airport numbers, nowhere near enough to sustain the size of operations in either airport currently. Sadly...

If/when corona goes away I agree there definitely is enough regional demand for connecting flights to AMS/LHR at the least from ORK. But that could be years away, I'd struggle to see how the airports will survive until then.

JohnC.

https://news.sky.com/story/british-airways-chief-executive-alex-cruz-steps-down-12102287

Alex Cruz stepping down from BA. Sean Doyle taking over.

smurfjed

Was he even in the seat for a month ?

What did the EI employees think of Sean Doyle?

snotboogie

Blut2 wrote: »

ORK has 7 flights, total, scheduled for departure tomorrow. SNN appears to have 2 flights(!), total.

With PAX loads being so shockingly low at the moment (and for the foreseeable future) that would place ORK at likely 300-700 passengers per day, and SNN at 50-200 passengers a day. Those are tiny tiny regional airport numbers, nowhere near enough to sustain the size of operations in either airport currently. Sadly...

If/when corona goes away I agree there definitely is enough regional demand for connecting flights to AMS/LHR at the least from ORK. But that could be years away, I'd struggle to see how the airports will survive until then.

There are hundreds of airports globally in the same position. Quick look shows that LBA has 6 flights scheduled to arrive tomorrow, Bremen has 8, Rotterdam has 3, Girona has 1.

Cork is probably protected within the DAA and Shannon is probably politically protected. I'd be very surprised to see either shut unless there is horrific news on the timeline to going back to normal.

Blut2

snotboogie wrote: »

There are hundreds of airports globally in the same position. Quick look shows that LBA has 6 flights scheduled to arrive tomorrow, Bremen has 8, Rotterdam has 3, Girona has 1.

Cork is probably protected within the DAA and Shannon is probably politically protected. I'd be very surprised to see either shut unless there is horrific news on the timeline to going back to normal.

And I'd wager most of those hundreds of airports globally will also be highly likely to close if their facilities are way too big for their new traffic numbers. The problem isn't just the rock bottom PAX numbers (though that obviously is a huge issue) - its a problem of facility size. Those numbers would be somewhat more sustainable somewhere very small like KIR, with much lower running costs. But not so in much larger airports, designed to carry a lot more PAX.

Political protection can't force FR and EI to keep serving them, thats the issue. And without them the airports are not viable. And the local TDs apparently aren't that concerned, given they haven't put enough pressure on the government to do anything to save the aviation sector, despite very clear pull-out threats made by both airlines if nothing was done this month.

The airlines are going to protect their bottom line as best they can, which is going to involve closing anything and everything that isn't bringing in money, unfortunately.

Tenger

smurfjed wrote: »

Was he even in the seat for a month ?

What did the EI employees think of Sean Doyle?

Think he took his position in January 2019. He was there for the livery unveil.
Then the last 7 months he has been overseeing a skeleton operation at EI.

I had assumed that BA CEO was his path, but expected at least 4 years with EI.
Isn’t Alex Cruz only at the top of BA for 2-3 years himself?

snotboogie

Blut2 wrote: »

And I'd wager most of those hundreds of airports globally will also be highly likely to close if their facilities are way too big for their new traffic numbers. The problem isn't just the rock bottom PAX numbers (though that obviously is a huge issue) - its a problem of facility size. Those numbers would be somewhat more sustainable somewhere very small like KIR, with much lower running costs. But not so in much larger airports, designed to carry a lot more PAX.

Political protection can't force FR and EI to keep serving them, thats the issue. And without them the airports are not viable. And the local TDs apparently aren't that concerned, given they haven't put enough pressure on the government to do anything to save the aviation sector, despite very clear pull-out threats made by both airlines if nothing was done this month.

The airlines are going to protect their bottom line as best they can, which is going to involve closing anything and everything that isn't bringing in money, unfortunately.

The threat from both airlines is to close their bases, not to fully pull services. It is very difficult to predict how this will pan out when we have no idea when travel restrictions will ease and when the world will start to go back to normal. However it really is a worse case scenario to see either or both airports close down.

JohnC.

Singapore Airlines came up with a mad plan for a bit of cash. Have a meal on an A380. £360 per head in a suite down to £30 for an economy tray. The plane doesn't go anywhere. You're just having an airline meal on a stationary plane. And they sold out.

L1011

JohnC. wrote: »

Singapore Airlines came up with a mad plan for a bit of cash. Have a meal on an A380. £360 per head in a suite down to £30 for an economy tray. The plane doesn't go anywhere. You're just having an airline meal on a stationary plane. And they sold out.

Two of my colleagues would pay decent money to be allowed go through The Loop for a bit of shopping (not duty free, possibly buy very little or nothing) and a meal in Marquette right now... might be a business idea here!

goingnowhere

A round the island trip in A321neo with a touch and go at ORK and SNN would sell well. There isn't exactly a lot of other things to do these days.

Do wonders for EI's pilot training/on type currency....

smurfjed

It would be so nice if they tried something like this in Irish airports.

MANAMA — Bahrain’s Interior Ministry has started to use police dogs to detect and discover those infected with the coronavirus.

It is a new trial launched by Bahrain as part of national efforts to limit the spread of the coronavirus pandemic through the use of police dogs of the K9 Unit of the Interior Ministry to detect infected individuals through sniffing a sweat sample of each case, making it an easy way.

The Medical K9 Detection Section is among the most important sections that were recently formed to utilize all available capabilities to combat the pandemic. The success rate of the training program reaches 92.8 percent.

Cookiemunster

smurfjed wrote: »

It would be so nice if they tried something like this in Irish airports.

The Finns are testing it too. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54288067

3xh

L1011 wrote: »

Two of my colleagues would pay decent money to be allowed go through The Loop for a bit of shopping (not duty free, possibly buy very little or nothing) and a meal in Marquette right now... might be a business idea here!

Maybe have them search for the cheapest ticket available the day they want? Go through, miss the flight, walk out?

Hotblack Desiato

JohnC. wrote: »

The plane doesn't go anywhere. You're just having an airline meal on a stationary plane. And they sold out.

Let's hope the "cabin fever" in the link does not turn out to be literally.

Tenzor07

L1011 wrote: »

Two of my colleagues would pay decent money to be allowed go through The Loop for a bit of shopping (not duty free, possibly buy very little or nothing) and a meal in Marquette right now... might be a business idea here!

They wanna pay to walk through what feels like an abandoned shopping mall? :eek:

Locker10a

Tenzor07 wrote: »

They wanna pay to walk through what feels like an abandoned shopping mall? :eek:

I assume it’s the convenience of having several (most) high end brands all in once place, without having to navigate multiple city center stores or overrun shopping centers having to que for parking and que to enter shops

L1011

Tenzor07 wrote: »

They wanna pay to walk through what feels like an abandoned shopping mall? :eek:

Its assuming the shops would be open - and I'd guess its because its part of their usual pre-Christmas traditions

Dublinflyer

L1011 wrote: »

Its assuming the shops would be open - and I'd guess its because its part of their usual pre-Christmas traditions

A friend of mine who still works there sent me a video of the main shopping area in T2 last week. It's almost upsetting to watch, most of the shops closed and the ones that are open were empty, it was around 9am, the majority of the public seats are covered and can't be used.

Tenzor07

Dublinflyer wrote: »

A friend of mine who still works there sent me a video of the main shopping area in T2 last week. It's almost upsetting to watch, most of the shops closed and the ones that are open were empty, it was around 9am, the majority of the public seats are covered and can't be used.

It's a Ghost town and will remain so for the rest of the winter at least, I can't see how they can keep stores open without customers.. I'm sure even WH Smiths are struggling to keep the doors open...

duskyjoe

Dublinflyer wrote: »

A friend of mine who still works there sent me a video of the main shopping area in T2 last week. It's almost upsetting to watch, most of the shops closed and the ones that are open were empty, it was around 9am, the majority of the public seats are covered and can't be used.

It’s grimacing

WishUWereHere

Tenzor07 wrote: »

They wanna pay to walk through what feels like an abandoned shopping mall? :eek:

Tell them to head for Dun Laoire SC.I think the upper floor has almost no shops open

JohnC.

Ryanair confirming winter closure of Cork and Shannon bases, also Toulouse and significant cuts in Belgium, Germany, Spain, Portugal and Vienna.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1015/1171650-ryanair-base-closures/

Dempo1

JohnC. wrote: »

Ryanair confirming winter closure of Cork and Shannon bases, also Toulouse and significant cuts in Belgium, Germany, Spain, Portugal and Vienna.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1015/1171650-ryanair-base-closures/

Not at all a surprised , live reports from both locations during the week we're shocking, both airports completely abandoned. On one day, Shannon had 2 flights for the entire day, both Ryanair. Just extraordinary.

suicide_circus

Dublin schedule down to 40% now

BZ

The government are squarely to blame for this, they have made no effort whatsoever for the aviation industry over the last 6 months. They mention testing at airports for the last few months but nothing has come of it, what have they been doing! The repercussions of this to aviation industry are going to be grim but also the likes of supporting industries and of course the hospitality and tourism sector.

Faith

snotboogie wrote: »

The threat from both airlines is to close their bases, not to fully pull services. It is very difficult to predict how this will pan out when we have no idea when travel restrictions will ease and when the world will start to go back to normal. However it really is a worse case scenario to see either or both airports close down.

JohnC. wrote: »

Ryanair confirming winter closure of Cork and Shannon bases, also Toulouse and significant cuts in Belgium, Germany, Spain, Portugal and Vienna.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1015/1171650-ryanair-base-closures/

For a complete layperson, can anyone explain what this means in practice? We rely very heavily on the ORK - STN route. Does that mean there won't be flights on that route over winter, given that Ryanair are the only airline operating it?

Cosmo Kramer

What are they supposed to do though? It seems far too easy or just lazy to have a go at the government over this - airport testing is a complete red herring and almost nobody wants to fly anyway. They can't force people to use the airports and they can't magic away the pandemic either. It is what it is (and given that we're almost certainly looking at restrictions into 2022 it will get worse before it gets better).

Innisfallen

Faith wrote: »

For a complete layperson, can anyone explain what this means in practice? We rely very heavily on the ORK - STN route. Does that mean there won't be flights on that route over winter, given that Ryanair are the only airline operating it?

It's hard to predict at the moment, but I imagine they will use a STN based aircraft for the route (like they did earlier in the summer), however, the frequency will probably be reduced.